SCB X Public Company Limited

Tisco Securities expects the combined net profit of the seven commercial banks under its coverage in the third quarter of 2026 to reach 64.5 billion baht, up 4% quarter-on-quarter but down 7% year-on-year. The performance is supported by a recovery in net interest margin, which has begun to stabilise after the Bank of Thailand's policy rate cut cycle ended. Net interest margin is expected to expand by about 2 basis points quarter-on-quarter, while total loans are likely to decline by about 0.2% quarter-on-quarter, though net interest income is still expected to grow by about 1% quarter-on-quarter. Fee income is forecast to grow 3% quarter-on-quarter and 12% year-on-year. On special items, Tisco said most banks have no significant items, except KTB, which may record an investment gain of about 3.7 billion baht from the revaluation of its 75% stake in Thai Airways International after the silent period ended in August. Tisco maintains an OVERWEIGHT view on the banking sector, with top picks KTB, KBANK and TTB. It expects BBL to post a profit of 10.128 billion baht, down 26.6% year-on-year but up 6.6% quarter-on-quarter. KBANK is expected to post a profit of 12.491 billion baht, down 4.0% year-on-year and down 5.7% quarter-on-quarter. KTB is expected to post a profit of 14.57 billion baht, down 0.3% year-on-year but up 20.2% quarter-on-quarter. SCB is expected to post a profit of 11.213 billion baht, down 7.0% year-on-year but up 0.9% quarter-on-quarter, while KKP is expected to post a profit of 2.116 billion baht, up 26.7% year-on-year but down 0.3% quarter-on-quarter.

Bualuang Securities' Research team estimates that the combined core profit of the banking sector in the third quarter of 2026 will be 42.9 billion baht, up 5% YoY and 7% QoQ, higher than the third-quarter 2026 GDP estimate of 2.0% YoY. Two main factors support this: lower provisioning and growing fee income. For provisioning, the sector's average rate is expected at 1.30%, down 17bps YoY and 2bps QoQ, while the average non-performing loan ratio to total loans is expected to edge up slightly from 2.98% at the end of June 2026 to 3.00% at the end of September 2026. The ratio of loan-loss reserves to non-performing loans is expected at 204.1%, flat QoQ. Total net fee income is expected at 40.3 billion baht, up 14% YoY and 5% QoQ, driven mainly by the wealth management business, whose combined net asset value of bank-owned asset management companies stood at 7.8 trillion baht at the end of August 2026, up 4% since the start of the quarter and up 11% YoY. Securities brokerage fee income is likely to grow significantly both YoY and QoQ, from securities trading value expected to rise 64% YoY and 34% QoQ in the third quarter of 2026. Counting total net profit of the banking sector in the third quarter of 2026, it is expected at 55.2 billion baht, down 11% YoY and flat QoQ, due to lower average net interest margin and lower mark-to-market gains on financial instruments. Banks expected to post YoY core profit growth are KKP +73%, TISCO +23%, BBL +20%, KBANK +5% and TTB +4%, while KTB is expected to see core profit fall 11% YoY and SCB is expected to be flat YoY. For the fourth quarter of 2026, combined core profit is expected at 39.7 billion baht, up 10% YoY but down 8% QoQ, on higher operating expenses. For 2027, the banking sector's combined net profit is expected at 221 billion baht, up 1% YoY, supported by loan growth expected at 2% YoY and net fee income growth of 4% YoY, while average net interest margin has likely already passed its trough in the second quarter of 2026 after most loan and deposit rate adjustments were completed.

Phillip Securities (Thailand) has issued an analysis forecasting the third-quarter 2026 operating results of Krung Thai Bank, or KTB, and SCB X Public Company Limited, or SCB, along with investment strategy recommendations and target price assessments for each stock. Phillip's research team expects KTB to post a third-quarter 2026 profit of 12.3 billion baht, down 16.1% from the same period a year earlier, on lower interest income following cuts in loan rates and a decline in gains from financial instruments. Compared with the previous quarter, however, profit rose 1.2% on higher interest income and fee income. KTB's loans in the third quarter of 2026 are expected to grow another 3% quarter on quarter, lifting loan growth to 6.6% year to date, the highest level in the banking group, and are expected to bring the ratio of non-performing loans to total loans down from 2.92% in the second quarter of 2026. Phillip's research team maintains its 2026 profit estimate for KTB at 48.9 billion baht, up 1.4% year on year, and views KTB as the bank that stands to benefit most from various government projects. It expects a dividend of 2.10 baht, a dividend yield of 4.7%, and for 2027 a dividend of 2.21 baht, a dividend yield of 4.9%. It therefore recommends gradual buying, with a target price of 46 baht. For SCB, Phillip's research team expects a third-quarter 2026 profit of 11.5 billion baht, down 4.9% year on year. Although fee income is expected to rise and interest costs and provisions are expected to fall, a sharp decline in interest income pulled profit lower. On a quarter-on-quarter basis, however, profit rose 3.1% on higher fee income and gains from financial instruments. SCB's loans in the third quarter of 2026 may also contract 0.3% quarter on quarter, leaving loan growth at 1.9% year to date, and the contraction in loans may push the ratio of non-performing loans to total loans higher than the previous quarter's 3.17%. Phillip's research team maintains its full-year 2026 profit estimate for SCB at 44.9 billion baht, down 5.5% year on year, and views SCB as having an attractive dividend. It expects a dividend of 10.66 baht for 2026, a dividend yield of 6.8%, and for 2027 a dividend of 11.03 baht, a dividend yield of 7.1%. It recommends gradual buying, with a target price of 163 baht.

Yuanta Securities assesses that this round of US midterm elections is likely to increase short-term volatility in the stock market, with the current environment bearing some resemblance to 2018, when the S&P 500 declined in the one month before the election amid pressure from trade tensions and the Fed's rising interest rate cycle. The key pressures this time come from the Iran war, the Fed's return to rate hikes, and political uncertainty ahead of the election. The difference from 2018 is the direction of Fed monetary policy, which, although returning to rate hikes again, is still less restrictive this cycle, and the latest Dot Plot suggests that further rate increases are likely limited. At the same time, the decision to raise rates this round also helps reinforce confidence in the Fed's independence and reduces the Policy Risk Premium somewhat. The research team assesses that although the market still faces the risk of a correction before or during the Midterm Election, the downside may be more limited than in 2018 due to reduced monetary policy pressure. Top Picks include JPMUS19, NVDA19, AMZN19, META80, and NBIS80. On the Thai stock side, they include GULF, GUNKUL, SSP, MINT, SCB, and BBL.

KGI Securities (Thailand) says large corporate loans grew strongly in August 2026, with short-term money market loans and interbank lending rising sharply at every bank except Siam Commercial Bank, which shifted its excess liquidity into bond investments instead. Overall money market loans grew 14% month on month, with BBL and KBANK posting the strongest growth among the large banks at about 18% month on month each, followed by TTB at 14% month on month and KTB at 13% month on month, while KKP recorded growth of as much as 36% month on month. Retail loans declined broadly, with only KTB lending aggressively, as most banks applied cautious lending criteria, including for housing loans and hire purchase loans, with SCB and TTB seeing their hire purchase loan portfolios contract because of stricter standards on electric vehicles. KTB, however, appears to have a more aggressive policy on housing and retail lending, which should be positive for its net interest margin, while total loans and money market lending grew 1.4% month on month compared with deposits at 0.5% month on month. KGI says growth in private investment accelerated in August, in line with the recovery in lending, and large banks should be the main beneficiaries, with KTB, KBANK and BBL standing out the most, while the momentum in private investment could drive full-year loan growth about 2% above the banks' financial targets.

Hua Seng Heng Gold Futures estimates global gold prices at around $5,000 per ounce by the end of 2026, with domestic gold prices likely to trade in a range of 75,000 to 75,700 baht per baht-weight of gold, under an assumption of the baht at 31.70 to 32.00 baht per dollar. Sirilak Pakotiprapha, Director of the Analysis Department, said that over the past 20 years gold prices have risen more than eightfold, and in 2025 gold demand reached a record high of 5,000 tonnes, driven by buying from retail investors worried about missing out. In 2026, gold prices hit a record high of $5,595 per ounce in January before declining between March and June amid the Iran war and inflation concerns. Wachiravat Banchuen, Senior Financial Markets Strategist at SCB Financial Markets, Siam Commercial Bank, estimates global gold prices at $4,900 to $5,000 per ounce by the end of 2026, with a chance of rising above $5,000 per ounce in 2027. He expects central banks worldwide to buy a net 50 tonnes of gold per month in 2026 and 40 tonnes per month in 2027, and sees the baht trading in a range of 33.30 to 33.80 baht per dollar over the next one to two months and at 32.80 to 33.80 baht per dollar by the end of the year.

Bangkok Commercial Asset Management Public Company Limited, or BAM, has taken over bad debt from SCB worth around 10 billion baht, with revenue beginning to be gradually recognized in the third quarter of 2026, following an analyst meeting yesterday. Research from Yuan Da Securities noted that BAM's cash collection improved compared with the previous quarter after some debtors who had requested payment deferrals resumed payments under their contracts. Meanwhile, competition in auctions to buy secured bad debt from commercial banks has fallen sharply because the second- and third-ranked competitors have reduced their bad debt purchases and small AMCs are facing liquidity problems, allowing BAM to negotiate purchases at lower prices, down from around 23-25% of debt value to only 14-20%. As for the establishment of JVAMCs, two are expected to be set up in November this year and one more in early 2027, giving BAM as many as five JVAMCs in 2027, up from two currently, which are with GSB and KBANK. The research house maintained its forecast for 2026 net profit at 1.655 billion baht, down 8.7% year on year, before returning to growth of 6.7% in 2027, and kept its buy recommendation, noting the stock trades at a 2026 PBV of only 0.5 times, with 30.4% upside from a 2027 fundamental value of 9 baht, and an expected dividend yield of another 6.6%.

The Economic Intelligence Center of Siam Commercial Bank, or SCB EIC, has revised up its forecast for Thailand's economy in 2026 to 2.2% growth from a previous estimate of 2%, and expects expansion of 2.1% in 2027, up from 1.9%, supported by exports, investment, and government budget disbursements. Dr. Yanyong Thaicharoen, Chief Executive Officer of the Economic Research and Sustainability Division at SCB EIC, said Thailand's economy is being driven by exports of electronic goods and foreign direct investment in the digital and technology sectors, in line with the global AI cycle. However, he said the recovery is K-shaped, uneven and concentrated in certain industries, with total investment as a share of GDP at just 22%, while the number of zombie companies whose profits are insufficient to cover interest and debt obligations has risen to 12%. Dr. Thitima Chucherd, Senior Director and Head of Macroeconomic Research at SCB EIC, said the US Federal Reserve is expected to raise its policy rate at this meeting, but this will not affect Thailand's policy rate, which is likely to remain at 1% through 2027, because Thailand's challenges differ from those of the United States. Thailand needs low interest rates to support the economy, alongside targeted measures to help those with troubled loans and to address debt problems. Three key risk factors bear watching. First, the Middle East war has pushed crude oil prices up to nearly 110 dollars per barrel and driven the Oil Fuel Fund deficit to nearly 90 billion baht. Second, the trade war, with the United States likely to raise tariffs on 16 countries, including Thailand, over allegations of overcapacity. Third, the risk from El Nino, which is expected to cut GDP by about 0.2% to 0.4% over two years. Meanwhile, if the new Power Development Plan is carried out over the next 10 years, it could generate as much as 1.4 trillion baht in private investment.

The Financial Markets Group at Siam Commercial Bank expects the baht to move in a range of 33.20 to 33.45 per dollar today, with the baht weakening in line with a stronger US dollar index and the 10-year US Treasury yield touching its highest level since 2007. Oil prices also remain elevated after Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia and their seizure of more territory in Yemen. The yen weakened to its lowest level in a week after reports that Japan is considering raising its defense spending target to 3.5% of GDP. For today, the market is watching the Fed meeting, with SCB FM expecting a 0.25% rate hike to 4.00%, the upper bound.

SCB EIC, the research arm of Siam Commercial Bank, reported that private investment in Thailand still has momentum from applications for investment promotion with the Board of Investment, or BOI, especially in high-tech industries, while actual investment in the second quarter grew by 27%. Although the second half is likely to slow somewhat from a high base, the Data Center business is one of the industries drawing the most interest from foreign investors, thanks to infrastructure readiness and government investment support measures. However, Data Center investment in Thailand is in a temporary pause in approvals and investment in order to review policy direction, promotion measures, and impacts on the environment, electricity and water pricing structures. The government is in the process of setting up a Data Center committee to set new criteria, which are expected to be clear within this year, covering four areas: building linkages with local operators and the local economy, ensuring electricity and water resource security, environmental standards within buildings, and managing overall environmental impacts. On the fiscal side, the role of government spending in driving the economy is likely to decline, after the budget for the Thai Chuay Thai stimulus program fell from a framework of 400 billion baht to about 40 billion baht currently, and is expected to last only about one more month. Meanwhile, next year's budget expands by only 0.2%, below the inflation rate, with recurrent spending up 5% but investment spending contracting 8%, and public debt is likely to reach 70% of GDP next year. Under these constraints, the government needs to shift from direct budget spending to using policy mechanisms and regulations to encourage more private investment, such as the national Power Development Plan, or PDP. If it clearly sets the direction for investment in renewable energy and carbon capture and storage technology, or CCS, the government could use about 360 billion baht in electricity grid investment but attract as much as 1.4 trillion baht in private investment over the next 10 years. Energy price subsidies are another key constraint, with the Oil Fuel Fund nearly 90 billion baht in negative territory and facing an outflow burden of almost 400 million baht per day to subsidize prices. If prices are held at current levels through the end of the year, the negative position could widen to about 128 billion baht. Past electricity price cuts effectively deferred the burden onto the Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand, or EGAT, leaving the government with increasingly limited options for energy price subsidies. Therefore, driving new investment, especially Data Centers, requires balancing economic opportunity, attracting foreign investment, and creating benefits for Thai operators, alongside maintaining long-term energy, water resource, and environmental security.

The Economic Intelligence Center of Siam Commercial Bank, or SCB EIC, released the results of its SCB EIC Real Estate Survey 2026, showing that consumers' ability to buy housing has not fully recovered and is likely to recover only slowly ahead, weighed down by economic problems, uncertainty about the future outlook, high housing prices, and tight lending by financial institutions. The survey found that 56% of consumers have no plans to buy housing within five years, up from last year and the highest in four years, with even the group earning more than 100,000 baht a month delaying purchases. SCB EIC expects the housing market in 2026 to hold steady or expand slightly, helped by a low base and a rush to transfer property before the reduction in transfer and mortgage registration fees to 0.01% for homes priced at no more than 7 million baht. The second-hand market remains the main driver, while in the medium term recovery will stay limited as the economy recovers slowly. Concern about being rejected for loans has risen, especially among those earning no more than 50,000 baht a month, most of whom want to buy homes priced at no more than 5 million baht, in line with lending standards that remain strict. Demand for homes priced at no more than 3 million baht has risen clearly, particularly among those earning no more than 30,000 baht a month, and second-hand homes are drawing more interest across all types and price levels, especially townhouses. Supply of second-hand homes is likely to increase, particularly for products priced at no more than 3 million baht, both condominiums and townhouses in Bangkok and its vicinity, as well as detached houses in the provinces, with about one in three homeowners planning to sell within five years. The rental market is slowing, as some tenants choose to cancel their leases and return to live with family to cut expenses. SCB EIC advises operators to be cautious about developing new projects, to avoid locations with intense competition or large accumulated unsold stock, to speed up clearing inventory, and to focus on developing projects that offer good value for money in order to compete with the second-hand market. For those who want to buy and are financially ready, this is still a good moment to buy in the short term, especially for housing priced at no more than 7 million baht, given the reduction in transfer and mortgage registration fees, the relaxation of loan-to-value rules in effect until at least mid-2027, and low interest rates and promotions from operators.

CGSI said that Brent crude oil prices surging past $100 per barrel for the first time since July, on concerns that the war between the United States and Iran could drag on and disrupt oil supply, is a factor weighing on global markets over inflation worries, but it is instead supporting energy stocks. The November Brent crude contract rose $3.29, or 3.36%, to close at $101.21 per barrel, while West Texas crude futures on the New York market closed up more than 3%. Meanwhile, December gold futures on the COMEX rose $21.70, or 0.49%, to close at $4,460.70 per ounce, supported by the dollar's slowing appreciation. CGSI sees the SET index range at 1,610-1,635 points, expecting the SET to outperform global stock markets on the strength of energy stocks, and recommends PTTEP, which posted net profit of 27.197 billion baht in the second quarter of 2026, growing 130% QoQ on strong sales volumes and higher average selling prices, with PTTEP's gas price expected to hold steady at $6 per mmbtu in the third quarter of 2026, and SCB, which aims to rise to first place in Thailand's wealth business in both number of clients and assets under advice in 2026.