Central Pattana Public Company Limited

Three securities firms have shared their outlooks for the Thai stock market in the final stretch of the year, along with their SET index targets and top stock picks for investment in the fourth quarter of 2026. Each has a different view and set of recommendations based on fundamentals and market trends. InnovestX has set a SET index target of 1,715 points for 2027 and named its top picks for Q4/2026: AMATA, CENTEL, CRC, KTB and PR9. ASPS estimates a SET index target of 1,720 points for 2026 and selected CPN, CBG, THAI, BDMS, BBL, COM7, STECON and GUNKUL as its top picks. KSS expects the SET index to trade in a target range of 1,680 to 1,750 points in 2026 and highlights TOP, PTTGC, SCC, IVL, GULF, DELTA and KBANK as its top picks.

Asia Plus Securities estimates the SET index target at the end of 2026 at 1,720 points, based on an assumption of 2026 earnings per share of 95 baht per share. It notes that the overall investment picture in the fourth quarter faces the risk of accelerating inflation from the Middle East war that has dragged on for more than 7 months, which pressured the average September 2026 WTI crude oil price to 95.6 dollars per barrel, up 50% compared with the previous year. Meanwhile, the United States is collecting import tariffs from trading partners at an effective rate as high as 12.5% to 19%, up from the previous 2% to 2.5%, and investment in data centers and AI infrastructure has pushed prices of software and computer equipment up 25.4% compared with the previous year, hitting a new high. On the Thai economy, the ratio of public debt to GDP stands at 67.45%, close to the fiscal discipline ceiling of 70%, while the impact of flooding is estimated at approximately 5 billion to 10 billion baht, which could drag third-quarter GDP growth down to 2.2% to 2.5%. The research department has adjusted its strategy from index selection to selective stock selection, focusing on stocks that benefit from the high season and the low base effect, namely CPN, CBG, THAI, BDMS, BBL, COM7, STECON, and GUNKUL, and recommends holding cash at around 10% to 15% of the portfolio.

InnovestX Securities assesses that the Thai stock market has declined and fallen below the 1,600-point level, pressured by three main factors: US bond yields that remain elevated, selling by foreign investors, and concerns over the impact of the flood situation. During September 22-29, 2026, foreign investors posted net selling of Thai stocks for six consecutive trading days, totaling nearly 20 billion baht. Meanwhile, the SET has risen about 27% since the start of the year, with the energy, banking, and electronics sectors up 38.5%, 32.4%, and 53.5% respectively, prompting profit-taking to reduce risk. As for the outlook for the Thai stock market, the break below the 75-day moving average has damaged the short-term positive structure, with 1,560 points a key test of confidence. If it cannot hold, there is a chance of a decline to the 1,550-1,555 range; if it holds, a short-term technical rebound is possible, with resistance at 1,585-1,590 points. On investment strategy, a Selective Buy approach is recommended, temporarily avoiding large-cap stocks that rose sharply earlier and focusing on stocks tied to domestic purchasing power. The recommended stock list includes CPALL, CPN, and CRC in the commerce group, BCH and PR9 in the medical group, and TRUE in the communications group.

Central Pattana has announced a partnership with Weixin Pay to launch the CENTRAL PATTANA X WEIXIN PAY, PAY & EARN LOYALTY PROGRAM, elevating the e-wallet from a payment channel into a full-fledged CRM loyalty platform. It is the first and only shopping center operator in Thailand granted the right to launch this program. Dr. Nattakit Tangpoonsinthana, Chief Marketing Officer of Central Pattana Public Company Limited, said the campaign will begin during China's National Day holiday, or Golden Week, from October 1 to 7, 2026, and continue through March 31, 2027, across all eight Central shopping centers designated as Tourist Malls nationwide. The program is driven by three main highlights: Earn, which provides instant real-time reward points; Expand, which grows the membership base through friend referrals; and Exclusive, which offers discounts of up to 50% from leading brands. Weixin Pay has more than 1.4 billion monthly users across Weixin and WeChat combined, while spending via WeChat Pay at Central shopping centers rose 170%, the number of users increased 340%, and the number of payment transactions grew more than 370% compared with the previous year. This aligns with the overall picture of Chinese tourists, more than 3.5 million of whom traveled to Thailand in 2026, a growth of 16%.

Asia Plus Securities assesses that the Constitutional Court's ruling in the ballot card barcode case on September 28, 2026, will produce three scenarios. In the best case, where the court finds no constitutional violation, the election proceeds on schedule, the government has stability, and it can continue disbursing the budget as well as the 400-billion-baht emergency loan decree to stimulate the economy. This is expected to drive a relief rally in the Thai stock market. In the case where problems are found but the impact is limited, the Election Commission will improve its working process and the government can continue administering the country, with the stock market moving sideways. In the worst case, a political vacuum could emerge, pressuring economic stimulus budgets to slow. A study of statistics during political crises from 2006 to 2022 found that the Thai stock market typically fell by an average of 3.66% in the 30 days before the verdict, but after the ruling the market usually recovered to positive territory, gaining an average of 0.92% over the following 30 days, a pattern known as Buy on Fact. However, foreign capital has flowed out for two consecutive days, totaling 4.1 billion baht, leading the research team to expect limited upside for the SET, with key resistance at 1,610 and 1,630 points. It recommends a defensive strategy in domestic play stocks, including retail and shopping centers, health and medical services, infrastructure and construction contracting, and AI and cybersecurity-themed depositary receipts abroad, highlighting META80, PANW80, BDMS, CPN, and ADVANC as top picks.

Central Pattana Public Company Limited, or CPN, has announced the transformation of its Central Bangna shopping centre into a future-facing mixed-use New Master Planning project. The first phase focuses on the retail component, with a gross building area of 330,000 square metres, supporting the growth of eastern Bangkok under the Living Gallery concept. The company is bringing in more than 300 well-known shops and new brands opening gradually, along with 200 events throughout the year, and targets visitor traffic growth to between 45,000 and 50,000 people. Inside the centre will be a Central department store in a new flagship-standard concept, which is being gradually renovated and will open in full in 2027, along with a 6,000-square-metre X Venture and a Fun City, both opening in 2027. Meanwhile, data from The1 shows that Central Bangna ranks in the top five shopping centres with more than 85% of its customers in the Wealthy Families group, and the company is ready to expand its car park to 3,500 spaces to serve future visitors.

The research team at Asia Plus Securities said that in the fourth quarter of 2026, the Thai capital market has an interesting issue arising from CAPPED WEIGHT index rebalancing. The SET50 index has a rule capping any single stock's weight at no more than 10%, creating a MEAN REVERSION phenomenon: when large-cap stocks decline in price, their FLOATING WEIGHT falls, for example DELTA dropping from 10% to 7.28%. When the end-of-quarter REBALANCE arrives, PASSIVE FUNDs must buy the stocks that fell heavily to top their weights back up to 10%, and sell stocks that have risen or whose weight exceeds 10%. The research team calculated the 10 stocks that will be added to in the fourth-quarter 2026 round, with DELTA benefiting the most from the top-up back to 10% from 7.28%, followed by MRDIYT, MINT, THAI, TFG, BANPU, ADVANC, CPN, CPALL and AOT. This group is expected to see price support from PASSIVE FUND money flows before October.

The Research team at Bualuang Securities says the retail sector still has growth drivers from structural margin expansion, which is expected to be a key driver of profits through 2027, supported by procurement efficiency, inventory management, and an improving sales mix. Core profit in the third quarter of 2026 is expected to rise 9% year on year even as same-store sales hold steady, with margin expansion helping profit grow faster than sales on a continuing basis, and improved profitability also stems from more efficient expense management. The three standout stocks, CPALL, CRC, and CPN, stand out for both gross margin expansion and an improving ratio of selling and administrative expenses to sales. CPALL trades at a 2027 PER of just 12 times, while CRC benefits directly from tourist spending, and CPN will gain additional revenue from existing shopping malls from tourist spending. The Research team assigns an OVERWEIGHT rating to the retail sector, overweighting essential and discretionary retail and underweighting home improvement and decoration retail, given limited profit growth opportunities in 2027 after the temporary boost from margin expansion begins to fade.

Today's stocks to watch span several key developments. Bangchak, or BCP, is changing its top leadership for the first time in 12 years, after the board unanimously resolved to appoint Bundit Hansapaiboon as the new CEO, succeeding Chaiwat Kovavisarach, whose term has ended, effective January 1, 2027, after more than a decade at the helm. The stock fell nearly 3% on concerns over the leadership change. Meanwhile, BCPG clarified the case in which the Department of Special Investigation requested information on its investment in the Phetchaburi oil depot and jetty project, confirming it is ready to cooperate fully and that there has been no conclusion or ruling from the relevant agencies. Central announced a new investment plan in Vietnam totaling 3.5 billion US dollars, covering retail, real estate, and hotels, split into 1.5 billion dollars for CRC to expand roughly 50 stores over three to five years, and another 2 billion dollars for CPN, after seeing substantial room for economic and purchasing-power growth. EGCO is pushing into the United States, acquiring a large 615-megawatt natural gas power plant in central New York under a tolling agreement that locks in long-term cash flow and captures electricity demand from AI and data centers. SPALI declared that Thai real estate has passed its bottom, and it will launch 19 new projects worth a combined 22.66 billion baht in the second half, with brokers saying profits have reached a turning point, raising this year's profit forecast by 10%, highlighting a 7.7% dividend yield, and setting a buy rating with a 21 baht target price.

TTB Wealth, the securities arm of TTB Bank, said the Ministry of Finance has confirmed a two-month extension of the Thai Chuay Thai Plus scheme, covering October through November, to help ease the cost of living amid persistently high energy prices. The extension will use the remaining budget, and the subsidy conditions remain unchanged at the 60/40 split. The proposal is set to go before the Cabinet meeting on September 22. TTB Wealth views this positively for the food retail sector, namely CRC, which operates the GO Wholesale cash-and-carry business, and CPN, which benefits from higher shopper traffic at its malls, as well as CBG. It also sees gains for the telecommunications sector from higher top-up revenue, namely ADVANC and TRUE.

Pi Securities estimates the SET index today will move in a range of 1570 to 1595, viewing Non Bank stocks as attractive for accumulation again on expectations of lower yields ahead. It names stocks in this group including MTC, SAWAD and TIDLOR. Meanwhile, US stock markets closed higher, with the DJIA up 0.61% and the S&P 500 up 1.14%, after the Fed raised interest rates by 25 basis points and signalled it may hike once more this year. Brent crude fell to around 104 to 105 dollars per barrel after Middle East concerns eased somewhat and Saudi Arabia said it would resume oil exports, helping push the US 10-year yield and 30-year yield lower. On US economic data released overnight, initial jobless claims came in at about 196,000, below market expectations. For short-term strategy, it recommends TECH names including DELTA and KCE after the Kospi rose about 2.5% this morning, as well as the tourism group including AOT, MINT, CENTEL, AWC, CPALL, CPN and HMPRO, and the hospital group including BDMS, BCH and PR9.

Finansia Syrus Securities Public Company Limited, or FSS, stated in an analysis of Central Pattana Public Company Limited, or CPN, that a plan to add approximately 500,000 square meters of net leasable area will increase the company's total leasable area to approximately 2.8 million square meters by 2030 and will support business growth at a high single-digit level. FSS expects CPN's normalized profit to set new records continuously during 2026-2028, driven by leasable area expansion and growth of its core businesses, while a strong financial position will help limit risks from a rising interest rate environment. On valuation, CPN currently trades at a P/E of approximately 15 times. If only the shopping mall business is valued at a P/E of 15 times, that implies a value of approximately 287 billion baht, close to the current market capitalization, reflecting that the market price almost entirely reflects the value of the shopping mall business, while the hotel and residential businesses remain incremental to value. FSS therefore maintains a buy recommendation on CPN with a target price of 80 baht.

Pie Securities stated that the U.S. stock market remains volatile due to signals of slowing investment from AI leaders, pressuring the SEMI group, while U.S. bond yields continue to rise across all maturities, reflecting concerns over inflation and declining confidence in the U.S. government. The S&P 500 fell 0.48% and the Nasdaq dropped 0.56% as investors worried about an AI slowdown following a proposal by the CEO of Anthropic calling for a pause in AI development, leading to selling in chip and data center stocks. Meanwhile, WTI crude oil closed above 100 dollars per barrel after Saudi Arabia shut down the East-West Pipeline. GOOGL rose 3.2%, MSFT gained 2%, and META added 2.7%. The CME FedWatch tool assigns a 92% probability of a rate hike at the upcoming meeting. For the domestic market, the SET is estimated at 1,580 to 1,605 points. This morning, the KOSPI fell 0.6%, which may pressure tech stocks such as DELTA and HANA. The strategy therefore focuses on 13 value stocks: banking group BBL, KBANK, KTB, SCB; hospital group BDMS, BH, BCH, PR9; retail group CPALL, CPN, HMPRO; and export group ITC, TU, which benefit from the weakening baht.

Global Securities, or GBS, assesses that the SET Index this week is likely to fluctuate, with a trading range of 1,570 to 1,630 points, amid pressure from WTI crude oil prices surging past 100 dollars per barrel and the US Producer Price Index, or PPI, for August rising 5.4 percent year-on-year, higher than analysts' expectations of 5.3 percent. As a result, investors have increased their weighting to 70 percent from 64 percent in expecting the FED to raise interest rates by 0.25 percent at its meeting on September 15-16. Meanwhile, the ECB decided to raise its policy rate by 0.25 percent for the second time this year. On the domestic positive side, the Center for Economic and Business Forecasting at the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce has revised up its forecast for Thailand's GDP in 2026 to 2.5 percent, benefiting from private investment and exports expected to grow 17.8 percent. Meanwhile, the Ministry of Finance is considering extending the Thai Chai Thai Plus program by another one to two months, and the EV Board has approved excise tax measures to push the import tax on electric vehicles to three rates. Mr. Watcharaphon Jongyanyong, Director of Research at Global Securities, recommends speculating on stocks that benefit from the FTSE Rebalance index adjustment, effective at the closing price on September 18, 2026. In the Large Cap group, CPN enters and exits; in the Mid Cap group, CPN enters while BTS, LH, SCCC, and TU exit; in the Small Cap group, BTS, FTREIT, LH, SCCC, THAI, and TU enter while BLAND, SPCG, and TPIPP exit.

CLSA (Thailand) has raised its SET index target for end-2026 to 1,700 points from 1,620 points, based on a PE of 16.5 times. It maintains a positive view on the Thai stock market. Although high oil prices may pressure US inflation, Thai inflation is expected to stay within the lower bound of the Bank of Thailand's 1-3% target. Meanwhile, the yield spread for 2-year and 5-year government bonds has risen only 0.10% since January 2026, reflecting limited domestic financial pressure. CLSA has also raised its 2026/2027 earnings per share (EPS) estimates for the market to 102.8/99.7 and selected 8 top stocks: PTTGC, TOP, IVL, CPALL, KBANK, SCB, CPN, and DELTA. It sees energy companies benefiting from strong refining margins (GRM), retail companies with strong SSSG, and banks with dividend yields of 5-7%. DELTA is expected to post record-high profits in Q3/2026, while CPN will accelerate in Q4/2026 due to mall expansions and high-season tourism.

Central Pattana or CPN reported core profit of 4.65 billion baht, up 19% from the previous year, on total revenue of 13.1 billion baht, up 8%. The Rental & Services business, which accounts for 88% of revenue, grew 8% due to expanding SSSG and revenue recognition from new centers. Meanwhile, core business GPM increased by 160 bps to 59%, and ROE rose to 17%. The second half outlook remains strong, with a property backlog of 9.6 billion baht and plans to open The Central Phaholyothin in 2027, as well as a mixed-use project with Mitsubishi Estate. A five-year plan targets adding another 500,000 square meters of leasable space, bringing the total to 2.8 million square meters. The average target price from IAA Consensus stands at 79.21 baht, with a 'buy' recommendation, resistance at 65.50 baht, and support at 64.25-64 baht.

Central Group has announced the appointment of Wallaya Chirathivat as President of the Group, aiming to strengthen its senior management team and prepare the organization for future growth. Tos Chirathivat, Chairman of the Executive Committee, stated that this appointment is a significant step in 2026 amid global business uncertainties. Central Group operates in 18 countries across Asia and Europe. Wallaya has been with the Group for over 40 years, with experience in retail, real estate, and corporate management. Her notable achievement includes leading Central Pattana's growth from 10 projects to 45 projects, and achieving record performance in 2025 with revenue of 53 billion baht and profit exceeding 19 billion baht. She will join the senior management team under the leadership of Tos, with Prinya Chirathivat as Deputy Chairman of the Executive Committee, Pichai Chirathivat as Executive Director, and Pandit Mongkolakul as Chief Financial Officer.

Bualuang Securities stated that amid the still volatile market, its research team believes dividend yield will regain its role as a downside buffer. However, looking at yield based solely on base-case estimates may not be sufficient, so it conducted a Dividend Stress Test for 2027, setting worst-case scenarios according to each industry's risks, such as banks assuming a 5-10 basis point increase in credit costs and payout ratios returning to normal levels, retail with SSSG of -2% YoY, shopping malls with tenant sales of -2% YoY, hospitals with no revenue growth, ICT facing price competition and slowing cost savings, energy using Brent at $60 per barrel compared to the base case of $70 per barrel, and WHA/WHAUP assuming the transfer of 900 rai of data center land is postponed from 2027. The stress test found that even with DPS declining by an average of 7% from the base case, there are still 8 companies whose 2027 dividend yield is higher than the +1 standard deviation level of the 10-year historical average, namely CPALL, BDMS, CPN, TLI, WHA, COM7, OSP, and TU. This reflects that yields still have a buffer even if earnings come in below expectations. Among these, CPALL offers a yield of 4.1% in the worst case compared to the +1SD of 2.6%, BDMS 3.9% versus 2.7%, CPN 3.9% versus 2.9%, TLI 5.4% versus 4.8%, WHA 4.9% versus 4.5%, and COM7 4.0% versus 3.7%. Meanwhile, OSP and TU still offer high yields of 5.3% and 5.6%, respectively, compared to the +1SD level of 5.2% for both. In a situation where earnings and the market remain uncertain, the strategy should focus on quality yield rather than merely selecting stocks with high dividend yields. All 8 stocks above maintain yields above their historical ranges even after passing through negative assumptions.

CGS International Thailand, or CGSI, has raised its year-end 2026 target for the SET Index to 1,690 points from 1,630 points, while lifting its market earnings per share estimate for this year by 8 percent. The move follows a 10 percent year-on-year and 14 percent quarter-on-quarter increase in combined net profit for the Thai listed companies it covers in the second quarter of 2026, led by the energy and petrochemical sectors. Excluding those two sectors, however, combined net profit fell 25 percent from a year earlier and 6 percent from the previous quarter. The research team recommends overweight positions in healthcare, tourism, consumer products, and industrial estates. It also updated its top picks, removing ERW and CRC and adding CPALL and PTT. The latest list consists of BH, PR9, THAI, PTT, CPALL, CPN, AMATA, WHA, GULF, TRUE, TFG, KBANK, MTC, and TIDLOR.

CGSI has raised its target price for CPN shares to 76 baht and maintained a buy recommendation, after lifting its normalised earnings per share estimates by 3.1 to 3.2 percent for 2026 to 2028. The revision reflects assumptions of a higher gross margin in the rental business, stronger hotel and property revenue, and a larger share of profit from CPNREIT. Normalised earnings per share in 2026 are expected to grow 14.7 percent, supported by rental revenue growth of 7.2 percent and a rental gross margin rising to 61 percent. Hotel and property revenue is projected at 6.4 billion baht, up 1.2 percent, helped by the opening of three more Go! Hotel locations and the Phyll Nakhon Pathom condominium in the second half of 2026, as well as the transfer of a condominium backlog from three projects worth 1.2 billion baht in the fourth quarter of 2026.

UBS has raised its target for the Thai stock market index to 1,680 points in its base case. In the best case, the index could climb to test a high of 1,840 points, while in the worst case it could fall to 1,460 points. The bank also recommends six top picks: CP All, Central Pattana, Gulf Energy Development, Krung Thai Bank, PTT, and True Corporation. At the same time, it has removed Advanced Info Service, Bangkok Dusit Medical Services, Berli Jucker, and Asset World Corp from its recommended list. Trading data from the start of the year through 17 August 2026 shows UBS has accumulated net sales of 5.50 billion baht, with net sales of 3.24 billion baht in August alone. Mongkol Puangpetra, managing director of Apollo Wealth Securities, views the 1,680-point level as a target many parties have already assessed, but reaching 1,820 points would be very challenging. Even though second-quarter profit for the Thai stock market hit a record high of about 380 billion baht, and trailing twelve-month profit reached 1.2 trillion baht, he recommends gradually selling to lock in profits when the index approaches 1,630 to 1,650 points, and keeping an eye on PTT and PTT Exploration and Production, which may pay higher-than-normal dividends.

KGI Securities Thailand has raised its 2026 SET index target to 1,820 points, seeing upside of about 12% from current levels after its latest earnings-per-share estimate revisions and an increase in its target price-to-earnings multiple to 14.8 times, which is the 10-year average minus 0.5 standard deviation. In the second quarter of 2026, combined profit of companies under KGI's coverage was 302 billion baht, up 13% from a year earlier and from the previous quarter, about 10% above the Bloomberg consensus. But excluding the energy and petrochemical sector, which benefited from surging oil prices and wider product spreads because of the US-Iran war, quarterly profit would have fallen 26% from a year earlier and 6.2% from the previous quarter. The sharp year-on-year profit decline was due to an unusually high profit base at GULF in the second quarter of 2025, when a large one-time gain was booked. KGI views the new target as quite challenging because the earnings estimate upgrades are concentrated in the energy sector, which is cyclical and trades at a lower price-to-earnings multiple than other sectors, and the best quarter for energy may already be behind us. As a result, only a few large domestic stocks still offer attractive risk-reward, such as CPALL, CPN, KBANK, KTB and GULF.

KGI Securities has raised its 2026 SET index target to 1,820 points after second-quarter 2026 profit for companies under its coverage came in 10% above expectations. Combined profit was 302 billion baht, up 13% from both a year earlier and the previous quarter. Excluding the energy and petrochemical sectors, however, profit fell 26% year-on-year and 6.2% quarter-on-quarter, due to a high base from GULF's special profit in the second quarter of 2025. The research team said 40% of stocks under coverage beat earnings expectations, 41% were in line, and 20% missed. Electronics, transport, and banking delivered strong results, while tourism and media were broadly neutral. Momentum in earnings-per-share upgrades is peaking and is expected to stabilise over the rest of the year. The new target still implies 12% upside from current levels, but it is quite challenging because earnings upgrades are concentrated in the energy sector, which is cyclical and trades at a lower price-to-earnings ratio than other sectors. Stocks that still offer upside to target prices include CPALL, CPN, KBANK, KTB, and GULF.

CGS International said rising oil prices and the 30-year US government bond yield hitting a 19-year high of 5.31% are weighing on global investment sentiment. It sees the SET index as likely to consolidate in the 1,610-1,635 point range, and recommends TIDLOR and CPN as top picks. TIDLOR reported second-quarter 2026 net profit of 1.53 billion baht, up 18.3% from a year earlier but down 5.0% from the previous quarter, and CGSI raised its 2026-2028 earnings per share estimates by 7.6-8.1%. CPN is expected to see shopping mall rental income and residential business revenue in the fourth quarter of 2026 reach quarterly highs for the year, and it plans to inject shopping malls into the CPNREIT trust in mid-2027.

TTB Wealth Securities maintains an Overweight recommendation on the retail sector, assessing that sector earnings have passed their trough and the contraction in same-store sales is coming to an end. It expects combined earnings per share of the retail companies under its coverage to grow 12 percent year-on-year in the second quarter of 2026, although down 16 percent quarter-on-quarter due to seasonal factors, and forecasts a continued recovery in the second half of 2026. Key drivers include a return to same-store sales growth, margin expansion from better product selection, and cost savings. The broker expects home improvement and furnishing retail stocks, namely GLOBAL, DOHOME, and HMPRO, as well as CRC, to show the strongest recovery, while CPN, CPALL, and COM7 continue to grow well on successful business strategies. For the building materials and home furnishing retail group, the securities firm estimates EPS will grow 37 percent in the second quarter of 2026, after earnings contracted continuously during 2023 to 2025, supported by better margins, a narrowing decline in same-store sales growth, and favorable product pricing from inflation. GLOBAL is seen as the standout, with earnings expected to grow 84 percent, driven by a higher proportion of house-brand products, cost control, and favorable pricing. CRC is expected to post 36 percent earnings growth in the second quarter of 2026, thanks to business strategy adjustments that support both same-store sales and margins, as well as lower marketing and interest expenses. Meanwhile, CPN is forecast to grow earnings by 15 percent, CPALL by 7 percent, COM7 by 30 percent, and MOSHI by 19 percent, with these companies seen as continuing to gain market share and expand margins. On the other hand, CPAXT is estimated to see earnings fall a further 17 percent due to weak same-store sales and margin compression from consumers trading down to lower-priced goods. For BJC, although earnings are expected to rise 12 percent from the acquisition of a wholesale business in Vietnam, the core BigC business remains weak with negative same-store sales growth. MRDIY is forecast to grow earnings by only 13 percent, below expectations, despite rapid store expansion. TTB Wealth Securities says the trend for the second half of 2026 will strengthen as the economy improves, maintaining a positive bias on building materials and CRC, and selecting CPN, GLOBAL, and CRC as top picks in the retail sector. For recommendations and target prices, stocks rated BUY are CPN with a target price of 75 baht, GLOBAL at 9 baht, CRC at 31 baht, CPALL at 62 baht, COM7 at 34 baht, DOHOME at 4.50 baht, HMPRO at 9.50 baht, MOSHI at 50 baht, and MRDIYT at 12.20 baht. CPAXT is rated HOLD with a target price of 14 baht, and BJC is rated SELL with a target price of 12.50 baht.

TISCO Securities maintains a 'buy' recommendation on Central Pattana Public Company Limited, or CPN, with a target price of 83 baht, assessing that core business momentum remains strong despite some seasonal impact on second-quarter 2026 results. CPN reported net profit of 4.75 billion baht for the second quarter of 2026, up 10.3 percent year-on-year but down 4.4 percent quarter-on-quarter, in line with TISCO and Bloomberg Consensus estimates. Rental income hit a new record high for the fourth consecutive quarter, serving as the main driver of year-on-year growth. Rental revenue rose 8 percent to 11.53 billion baht, supported by income recognition from new shopping centers—Central Khon Kaen Campus, Central Park, and Central Krabi—as well as growth at existing branches and the completion of mall renovation projects. The gross margin of the retail leasing business increased to 60.8 percent from 59.2 percent a year earlier, though it declined from 61.7 percent in the previous quarter due to higher electricity costs during summer and seasonal factors in the shopping center business. Selling and administrative expenses rose 8 percent, pushing the SG&A-to-sales ratio to 32.2 percent from 28.2 percent. However, share of profit from associates jumped 46 percent to 741 million baht, boosted by the asset sale of the Rama 2 project into CPNREIT in August 2025. Excluding after-tax interest income of 99 million baht from the Central Rama 2 lease agreement, core profit grew 19 percent year-on-year. Occupancy rates across 45 shopping centers and 16 community malls remained high at 91 percent on total leasable area of 2.4 million square meters, even with the opening of Central Khon Kaen Campus in May 2026. Margin expansion was supported by revenue from new malls, higher occupancy at Central Pinklao and Central Chaengwattana after renovations, and efficiency measures such as solar rooftop installations. The hotel business posted a 5 percent revenue increase to 464 million baht, driven by the opening of three new GO! Hotels, although the occupancy rate dipped to 74 percent from 75 percent. The residential business saw revenue rise 29 percent to 640 million baht, thanks to transfers of low-rise projects which accounted for 59 percent of total transfers, while condominium transfers declined due to a reduced backlog at ESCENT Nakhon Sawan and ESCENT Nakhon Pathom. TISCO notes that Central Northville opened on July 3, 2026, with approximately 40,000 square meters of leasable area, and the luxury zone expansion at Central Phuket is scheduled for the fourth quarter of 2026, along with The Central project in the first quarter of 2027, which will support continued growth in the second half of 2026 and the following year. The research team views the sustained record-high rental income, elevated occupancy rates, and expanding retail margins as reflecting structural growth from new leasable space and tenant quality upgrades. Key risks, however, remain from slowing consumer purchasing power, volatile energy costs, and economic conditions that could affect shopping center spending.

Central Pattana Public Company Limited, or CPN, reported a second-quarter 2026 net profit of 4.75 billion baht, up 10 percent from the same period last year and above market expectations, driven by growing shopping mall revenue and strong gross margins. Krungsri Securities and Kasikorn Securities both maintained buy recommendations with target prices of 80.00 baht and 79.50 baht respectively, seeing continued profit growth from new projects, rental increases, and the high season for condominium transfers at year-end. Core profit for the first half of 2026 was approximately 9.6 billion baht, representing about half of the full-year estimates of both brokers, who expect profit to remain at a similar level in the second half despite no new project openings this year.

Central Pattana is adjusting its strategy to drive its retail-led mixed-use model, focusing on expanding its provincial portfolio in new growth cities. It will open two shopping centres and mixed-use projects, Central Khon Kaen Campus and Central Northville, in the second quarter of 2026, pushing core business revenue to a record high for the fourth consecutive quarter. In the office segment, the Central Park Offices project in the Super Core CBD of Silom–Rama IV has attracted global financial institution Deutsche Bank from Germany, which has chosen it as its new headquarters in Thailand, reflecting multinational investor confidence. Meanwhile, the Phyll Khon Kaen condominium project achieved a 100% sell-out within three days during the presales period, generating over 1.6 billion baht in sales. The company continues to maintain strict financial discipline, resulting in a steadily declining net debt-to-equity ratio, and has announced a dividend payment for its 2025 performance at 2.40 baht per share, the highest level on record.

CGSI assesses listed-company earnings for the second quarter of 2026, with the petrochemical sector driving growth while the communication and tourism sectors may disappoint. The firm maintains its year-end 2026 SET Index target at 1,630 points and selects BH, PR9, THAI, ERW, CRC, CPN, AMATA, WHA, GULF, TRUE, TFG, KBANK, MTC, and TIDLOR as top picks. The research team notes that the non-bank sector will see net profit decline 14 percent year-on-year and 7 percent quarter-on-quarter in the second quarter of 2026, based on Bloomberg consensus estimates. The petrochemical sector is likely to be supported by higher spreads, while the transport sector, especially airlines, tends to weaken due to rising fuel costs stemming from the situation in the Middle East. In addition, the ICT and tourism sectors face risks of disappointment, as Bloomberg consensus estimates of strong net profit growth of 26 percent year-on-year for ICT and 15 percent year-on-year for tourism are unlikely to materialize amid a still-weak economy and a 4 percent year-on-year drop in foreign tourist arrivals. Tensions in the Middle East and high oil prices have caused Thailand to face twin deficits, with a trade deficit of 12.4 billion US dollars and a current account deficit of 13.3 billion US dollars in the first half of 2026. Elevated oil prices also increase the risk of government price intervention, which would pressure margins for downstream oil and gas businesses and could push inflation higher in the second half of 2026. While the Bank of Thailand views current inflation as likely temporary, the research team believes the central bank will not raise interest rates at the Monetary Policy Committee meeting on August 26, 2026. Regarding the Senate election collusion case, the Election Commission expects to conclude the investigation by the end of August, but the timeline may be extended. The most likely scenario is that charges will be filed against only some individuals, which would negatively affect market sentiment, and the broader legal proceedings would take longer than before. The SET currently trades at a 12-month forward price-to-earnings ratio of 16.7 times, but this drops to 14 times when excluding DELTA, which has a forward P/E of 83 times. CGSI maintains its year-end 2026 SET Index target at 1,630 points. Positive factors that could support the market include an easing of geopolitical tensions and lower oil prices, while downside risks are the Election Commission filing charges against key politicians from coalition parties and a sharp slowdown in tourist arrivals.

Tisco Securities has raised its 2026 target for the Stock Exchange of Thailand index to 1,670 points from 1,600 points, viewing the Thai stock market as a safe haven amid Middle East tensions and supported by improving economic fundamentals. It recommends overweight positions in banking, transport, healthcare, and tourism sectors in the second half of the year. The Tisco Economic and Strategy Analysis Centre has revised its GDP forecast for next year to 2.1 percent from 1.7 percent, after the Constitutional Court ruled that the 400 billion baht emergency loan decree is constitutional, allowing the inclusion of the impact from the latter 200 billion baht loan for energy transition in the estimates. The new SET Index target of 1,670 points is based on a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 17.6 times and SET earnings per share for 2026 and 2027 of 88.4 baht and 95.0 baht, respectively. For August, five-year and ten-year historical data show the SET Index has a 70 to 80 percent chance of closing positive, with average returns of 1.5 to 2.9 percent, supported by seasonal speculative buying around second-quarter earnings announcements, expectations of interim dividends, and the Thailand Focus event in late August, which historically has helped the SET Index rise in the two weeks following the event with a nearly 70 percent chance of a positive close and an average return of 1.4 percent. Top stock picks for August are CENTEL, COM7, CPN, GULF, KBANK, KTB, and PTT, with support levels at 1,570 and 1,540 points and resistance at 1,630 to 1,640 and 1,660 points. For foreign investment via depositary receipts, TENCENT80 and TRIPCOM80 are recommended.

The Thai stock market during 27 to 31 July 2026 fell below 1,600 points before buyback orders came in to support the market. DELTA was the main drag after its second-quarter 2026 earnings came in below expectations. Analysts downgraded the stock to Reduce and cut the target price to 244 baht from 265 baht, after lowering 2026 to 2027 profit forecasts to reflect gross margin pressure from higher raw material costs. On the supportive side, hyperscaler earnings continued to show strong investment momentum, and other sectors helped steady the market. CPN surged on expectations of second-quarter 2026 net profit of 4.5 billion baht, up 4 percent year-on-year, while banking stocks such as KBANK and KTB were supported by the investment cycle.

Central Pattana Public Company Limited, or CPN, has signed a memorandum of understanding with the Korea-Thailand Tourism Promotion Association, or KTPA, to attract Korean tourists through the soft power of Thai cuisine. The partnership will curate quality Thai restaurants and menus from Central Food across 16 Central shopping centers nationwide, covering key tourist destinations such as CentralWorld, Central Pattaya, Central Phuket, and Central Chiang Mai. The signing ceremony was attended by Mr. Kim In-ho, President of KTPA, and representatives from leading Korean travel companies, reflecting a collaboration that spans the full range of tourist markets including independent travelers, group tours, incentive trips, and golf tours. Ms. Pattra Sappayaprapa, Assistant Managing Director of the Food Court Business at Central Pattana, said that Thai food is one of the key reasons tourists choose to visit Thailand, and this partnership will help deliver meaningful experiences while supporting Thai entrepreneurs and sustainably boosting the tourism economy.

Land and Houses Securities expects CPN's normalized profit in the second quarter of 2026 at 4.641 billion baht, up 18.9 percent from the same period last year but down 4.8 percent from the previous quarter. The year-on-year growth was supported by revenue from new shopping centers and higher rental rates, while the quarter-on-quarter decline resulted from the passing of the high season, higher electricity costs, and increased depreciation. The outlook for the second half of 2026 is expected to recover from full-period recognition of new project income across shopping centers, hotels, and residential properties, although margins may be constrained by initial expenses. The research team maintains a buy recommendation with a target price of 77.40 baht per share, based on discounted cash flow, reflecting an upside of about 14 percent and an estimated dividend yield of approximately 3 percent.