Chularat Hospital Public Company Limited

Maybank Securities (Thailand) Public Company Limited has raised its 2026 SET Index target to 1,590 points from 1,550 points, but maintained a Neutral view because the overall market upside is not particularly high. Speaking at an online seminar titled "Decoding Thai Stocks, Fourth Quarter: Finding the Next Winners," the firm said earnings support from listed companies is not yet broad-based, with upward earnings revisions concentrated mainly in the electronics and energy sectors, while bond yields in several countries remain elevated, pressuring valuations of risk assets. On the Thai economy, Maybank expects GDP growth of 2.4% in 2026 and 2.7% in 2027, supported by exports, private investment, and a recovery in tourism, though the government's fiscal capacity has diminished amid a higher public debt level. For its fourth-quarter strategy, Maybank recommends focusing on adjusting weights between industry groups and selecting individual stocks rather than investing based on index direction. It highlights three standout groups: consumer finance, where valuations are starting to look attractive again, with TIDLOR, KTC, and MTC as top picks; tourism and transport, where earnings momentum continues, with AWC, AOT, BA, and MINT; and hospital businesses, which have stable revenue and specific supporting factors, with BH and CHG. At the same time, it advises increased caution in three groups: utilities and energy, which has been downgraded from Positive to Neutral; petrochemicals; and retail.

Kiatnakin Phatra Securities, or KKPS, has raised its investment weighting for the private hospital sector. Analyst Teerapol Udomwet said the sector's earnings already bottomed out in the second quarter of 2026 and will gradually recover in the second half of 2026, after more than a year of negative factors including stricter rules on child insurance claims and lower patient volumes from Cambodia. The sector's total revenue grew only 1-2% in the first half of 2026, but accelerated to 6-7% in July and August. On valuation, the hospital sector trades at a 2026 P/E of just 19 times, below the regional average of about 30 times, and is 30-40% cheaper than Singapore and Malaysia, which trade at 29-30 times. Dividend yields have risen to 4-5% a year from only 1-2% a year in the past. KKPS estimates that the Thai government bears 78% of the country's total public health spending, and that fiscal constraints will become clear by 2030, potentially shifting part of the government's annual burden of 450-500 billion baht to the private sector. That would represent an incremental value of more than 100 billion baht, or about 40% of the current revenue of private hospital operators listed on the stock exchange. KKPS's top picks are BH with a target price of 230 baht per share, BDMS with a target price of 23.50 baht per share, and PR9 with a target price of 24.50 baht per share. BCH and CHG also remain attractive on rising numbers of insured patients, with target prices of 13 baht per share and 2 baht per share respectively.

Land and Houses Securities issued an analysis recommending the purchase of two stocks, CHG and CPALL. For CHG, it sets a target price of 1.91 baht, with support estimated at 1.48 and 1.52 baht and resistance at 1.7 and 1.8 baht. It views the prospect of an adjustment to the social security reimbursement rate as an additional positive factor for profit forecasts, though clarity on the rate and the timing of its implementation is still awaited. It also expects third-quarter 2026 profit trends to recover both year on year and quarter on quarter, driven by the arrival of the high season for seasonal diseases, higher service utilisation, and the beginnings of a recovery in revenue from foreign patients. Meanwhile, losses at Mae Sot Hospital are trending lower, helping to support the profit recovery in the second half of 2026. For CPALL, it recommends buying with a target price of 64 baht, estimating support at 45 and 46 baht and resistance at 48.5 and 49.5 baht. It expects same-store sales growth in the third quarter of 2026 to be positive on a quarter-to-date basis, supporting solid growth in the ready-to-drink beverage segment thanks to hot weather, while the impact of the Thai Plus project is limited and the rising share of higher-margin ready-to-drink and ready-to-eat products helps drive net margin expansion year on year. It expects third-quarter 2026 profit to slow quarter on quarter as the low season sets in, but to grow year on year, supported by collaboration campaigns and store expansion, with an additional boost from the continued recovery in Chinese tourists that should carry growth momentum into the high season in the fourth quarter of 2026.

Krungsri Securities Public Company Limited assesses that the profits of hospital groups will pass their lowest point in the second quarter of 2026 and recover in the second half of the year, supported by the arrival of the high season and seasonal epidemics that increase the use of services by Thai patients. Meanwhile, foreign patients show a continuous recovery trend, with the July revenue of most hospitals accelerating clearly from the first half of the year. It is expected that profits in 2027 will grow better due to recovering revenue and improved operating leverage, as well as positive structural factors from the growth of health insurance and the opportunity to raise social security medical service rates, which will be an upside to profits and support a valuation re-rating. Currently, the hospital group trades at a PE for 2027 lower than -1.0 standard deviation. The preferred stocks are BDMS (target price 25 baht) and PR9 (target price 24 baht), while BCH (target price 12 baht) is the preferred stock in the social security hospital group. Data from the Department of Disease Control indicates that the influenza situation has accelerated during July to August, with the average number of patients per week increasing from 9,400 cases in July 2025 to 14,200 cases in July 2026 (+50% year-on-year) and further increasing to 17,341 cases during August 1-23, 2026 (+35% year-on-year), reflecting a more severe outbreak during the rainy season. This will support the use of services by Thai patients in the third quarter of 2026 and help accelerate the recovery of domestic revenue after a rather weak first half. In July, the revenue of BDMS, BCH, CHG, and PR9 grew by 8%, 7%, 5%, and 7-8% year-on-year, respectively, compared to the first half at +1%, -1%, +3%, and +3% year-on-year. Meanwhile, BH is expected to see revenue growth of 3% year-on-year in the third quarter of 2026, similar to the first half, reflecting a better recovery across almost the entire group, supported by the treatment of complex diseases, the recovery of Thai and foreign patients, as well as seasonal factors and epidemics during the rainy season.

Shares of Chularat Hospital Public Company Limited (CHG) rose 4.83% to 1.52 baht, after brokers expect third-quarter 2026 profit to grow both quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year, as it is the high season. Revenue from general patients is likely to recover, especially from children with seasonal diseases such as RSV and influenza. Meanwhile, foreign patients are gradually recovering after the situation in the Middle East eased. ASL Securities maintains its revenue forecast for this year at 8,648 million baht, up 3.6%, and net profit at 947 million baht, up 0.4%, while maintaining a "Buy" recommendation with a fair price of 1.78 baht, which does not yet include the upside from a possible increase in medical service fees paid by the Social Security Office later this year.

Chularat Hospital Public Company Limited (CHG) signals a strong recovery in the second half, especially in the third quarter, which is the peak season for the hospital business, supporting full-year revenue growth at a mid-single-digit level, despite first-half growth of only 3.5%. Meanwhile, patients from Myanmar have increased significantly after the border reopened, with Chularat Mae Sot Hospital serving as a strategic point to receive this group of patients. As for investment plans, the company continues to proceed according to its target of 900 million baht per year, with the flagship project, CHG Rayong International, with 200 beds, expected to commence operations in the third quarter of 2027. However, management expressed concerns about the Social Security budget, which has not been adjusted for 2-3 years, while treatment costs continue to rise, especially for cancer patients, forcing hospitals to bear the excess burden themselves.

Two brokers view Chularat Hospital (CHG) as entering a recovery phase in the second half of 2026. Land and House Securities maintains its 2026 revenue growth forecast at a mid-single-digit level, expecting the second half to outperform the first half, as July revenue accelerated by about 5% year-on-year, driven by general patients and government project revenue, while foreign patients are beginning to recover. The third-quarter profit is expected to recover both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter, due to the high season for seasonal diseases and a trend of reduced losses at Mae Sot Hospital. The broker recommends buying on weakness with a target price of 1.91 baht. Trinity Securities notes that first-half revenue was pressured by fewer gastrectomy cases, but expects third and fourth quarters to recover seasonally. It forecasts 2026 profit of 995 million baht, up 7% year-on-year, with a buy recommendation and a target price of 2.00 baht, based on discounted cash flow with a weighted average cost of capital of 8.7%.

The Cabinet meeting approved in principle a draft royal decree to extend Social Security coverage under Section 33 to three groups of employees previously exempted: those in agriculture, forestry, and animal husbandry; employees of individual employers; and employees of stall-holder employers. This is expected to add 550,000 insured persons in 2026 and 1.05 million by 2030. Krungsri Securities views this as a positive sentiment for hospital groups treating insured patients, with upside to revenue in the medium to long term. Hospitals with the highest social security revenue in the first half include BCH at 38% and CHG at 30%, while RJH has 53%, SKR 36%, VIH 26%, and PHG 40%. The firm maintains a bullish stance on the hospital group, expecting profits to have passed the trough, supported by the high season and the increase in social security treatment rates. Top picks are BDMS with a target price of 25 baht and PR9 with a target price of 24 baht. BCH, with a target price of 12 baht, is the biggest beneficiary if treatment rates are adjusted.

Finansia Syrus Securities estimates CHG's normalised profit for the third quarter of 2026 at 283 million baht, up 36% from the previous quarter and 4% from a year earlier, supported by seasonality, outpatient revenue, and continued growth in social security scheme revenue. For the fourth quarter of 2026, normalised profit is expected to accelerate 8% year-on-year, driven by a higher number of insured persons and complex-disease patients. The research team has trimmed its 2026 to 2028 profit forecasts by 2% to 3% and lowered its target price to 1.97 baht from 2.02 baht, based on a discounted cash flow method. It noted that second-half 2026 profit will grow 15% from the first half and 6% from a year earlier. CHG is preparing to pay an interim dividend of 0.02 baht per share, with the stock trading ex-dividend on 27 August 2026.

Finansia Securities expects the medical group's normalised profit in the second quarter of 2026 to total 6.01 billion baht, down 8% from the previous quarter and down 2% from a year earlier, mainly due to slowing domestic spending and unrest in the Middle East affecting revenue from Thai and foreign patients. However, PR9's normalised profit stands out, growing 4% from the previous quarter and 5% from a year earlier, thanks to its ability to maintain revenue and control costs. Meanwhile, CHG's normalised profit is expected to grow 8% from a year earlier, the highest in the group, driven by company-specific positive factors. The research team maintains a positive view on the third quarter of 2026, expecting normalised profit to grow both quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year, supported by the seasonal high season, and continues to pick PR9 as the top stock in the group, given its accelerating profit trend from strategies to increase revenue from foreign patients and complex disease treatments.

Yuanta Securities expects second-quarter 2026 earnings for the hospital group to soften both quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year, as Thai patient revenue remains flat amid the economic climate, while foreign patient flows from certain markets continue to be affected by the Middle East situation and the Cambodian border issue. However, three companies are set to post year-on-year profit growth: PR9, BH, and CHG. PR9 is supported by a recovery in foreign patients, particularly from Myanmar, along with complex-disease cases that boost revenue per head, while drug and medical supply costs ease. BH is expected to deliver low single-digit profit growth as foreign patient numbers begin to recover, and CHG benefits from a low base and social security revenue. For the second half of 2026, group profits are forecast to rebound both half-on-half and compared with the second half of last year, driven by the high season as Middle Eastern and CLMV patients gradually return. Meanwhile, the Cambodian border issue will have lapped its one-year anniversary in June, lowering the base for comparison and opening room for recovery. In addition, previously deferred treatment demand and a rise in complex-disease cases will support revenue per head and profitability margins. On the policy front, the government is studying a shift in the civil servant medical benefit scheme from a direct reimbursement system to a health insurance model. If implemented, this would be a medium- to long-term positive sentiment driver for private hospitals, especially BDMS, BCH, and CHG, which have broad networks and experience serving insured patients. The social security issue remains a key factor for BCH, CHG, RJH, and LPH. The risk of complex-disease revenue reversals in 2026 has diminished, while there is still upside risk from a potential increase in the capitation rate from the current 1,808 baht per person per year. We maintain a market-weight rating on the hospital group. Although second-half 2026 profits are expected to recover, renewed flare-ups in Middle East tensions could disrupt travel and cause the recovery to fall short of expectations. Our top picks are PR9 with a target price of 22.80 baht, supported by recovering foreign patient revenue and complex-disease cases as well as easing costs, which should drive above-group profit growth; and CHG with a target price of 1.95 baht, given its stronger year-on-year profit growth relative to peers, low exposure to Middle Eastern clients, and upside from social security and the civil servant benefit reform. BDMS has a target price of 24.70 baht, but its share price has underperformed the group and we expect a second-half 2026 profit recovery. For BCH, we recommend a trading strategy based on the potential for a special dividend and upside risk from social security.