Ladprao General Hospital Public Company Limited

Yuanta Securities expects second-quarter 2026 earnings for the hospital group to soften both quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year, as Thai patient revenue remains flat amid the economic climate, while foreign patient flows from certain markets continue to be affected by the Middle East situation and the Cambodian border issue. However, three companies are set to post year-on-year profit growth: PR9, BH, and CHG. PR9 is supported by a recovery in foreign patients, particularly from Myanmar, along with complex-disease cases that boost revenue per head, while drug and medical supply costs ease. BH is expected to deliver low single-digit profit growth as foreign patient numbers begin to recover, and CHG benefits from a low base and social security revenue. For the second half of 2026, group profits are forecast to rebound both half-on-half and compared with the second half of last year, driven by the high season as Middle Eastern and CLMV patients gradually return. Meanwhile, the Cambodian border issue will have lapped its one-year anniversary in June, lowering the base for comparison and opening room for recovery. In addition, previously deferred treatment demand and a rise in complex-disease cases will support revenue per head and profitability margins. On the policy front, the government is studying a shift in the civil servant medical benefit scheme from a direct reimbursement system to a health insurance model. If implemented, this would be a medium- to long-term positive sentiment driver for private hospitals, especially BDMS, BCH, and CHG, which have broad networks and experience serving insured patients. The social security issue remains a key factor for BCH, CHG, RJH, and LPH. The risk of complex-disease revenue reversals in 2026 has diminished, while there is still upside risk from a potential increase in the capitation rate from the current 1,808 baht per person per year. We maintain a market-weight rating on the hospital group. Although second-half 2026 profits are expected to recover, renewed flare-ups in Middle East tensions could disrupt travel and cause the recovery to fall short of expectations. Our top picks are PR9 with a target price of 22.80 baht, supported by recovering foreign patient revenue and complex-disease cases as well as easing costs, which should drive above-group profit growth; and CHG with a target price of 1.95 baht, given its stronger year-on-year profit growth relative to peers, low exposure to Middle Eastern clients, and upside from social security and the civil servant benefit reform. BDMS has a target price of 24.70 baht, but its share price has underperformed the group and we expect a second-half 2026 profit recovery. For BCH, we recommend a trading strategy based on the potential for a special dividend and upside risk from social security.