Bangkok Chain Hospital Public Company Limited

Four brokerages assess that the flood situation in Bangkok and its vicinity in 2026 will cause limited economic damage, as the waters have not yet spread into industrial estates or key production bases, unlike the great flood of 2011 that disrupted production chains on a wide scale. Finansia Syrus Securities estimates preliminary damage at around 20–40 billion baht, or roughly 0.1–0.2% of GDP, and views pressure on the stock market as reflecting short-term concerns rather than affecting earnings. Kasikorn Securities estimates damage at about 3,000–4,000 million baht per day, or roughly 20–30 billion baht per week; if severe conditions persist for one week, it could drag on GDP by about 0.1%. As of 27 September 2026, 25 provinces and 128 districts have been affected, with about 545,000 people impacted, compared with 2011 when floods hit 66 provinces, affected about 13.6 million people and caused damage of approximately 1.4 trillion baht. CGS International notes that Bangkok and its vicinity account for about 47.3% of the country's economy, and divides the situation into two scenarios: if water can be drained within 4–5 days, the impact will be limited, but if it drags on beyond 5 days, it could weigh more on purchasing power and consumption. For stocks that benefit after the waters recede, Finansia Syrus favours HMPRO, GLOBAL, DOHOME, TOA, SCGD, DCC and DRT, while Kasikorn favours retail and food groups as well as the ICT group. Pi Securities estimates a SET range of 1,590–1,620 points and picks BDMS, BCH, CPALL, PTT, PTTEP, PTTGC, TOP, ITC and TU, while CGS International says to watch DELTA, HANA and KCE if the SET falls below 1,600 points, on the theme of investment in artificial intelligence and digital infrastructure.

Equity and derivatives market strategists in the research department of InnovestX Securities Company Limited, or InnovestX, assess that the current flooding will have a limited impact on the economy and the SET, because it is merely water waiting to drain from heavy rainfall, unlike the 2011 crisis. In addition, water levels in the main dams remain lower than in 2011 and 2025. If the water recedes within one to two weeks, the impact on 2026 GDP is expected to be around 21 billion baht, or -0.11%, and the firm still expects Thai GDP to grow in line with its 2.0% target in 2026-2027. Historical data shows that in cases of short-term flooding lasting no more than seven days, the SET may dip an average of 0.6% initially before recovering into positive territory within one week. In cases of major flooding lasting more than seven days, the SET typically corrects an average of 3.8% in the first month and begins to recover from the second month onward, with Domestic Play stocks leading the market's recovery. InnovestX therefore recommends a Buy on Dip strategy to gradually accumulate Domestic Play stocks across three main themes. The first is Fast Recovery Plays, namely tourism names such as CENTEL and ERW and healthcare names such as BDMS and BCH. The second is Recovery & Repair Plays, namely commerce names such as HMPRO and GLOBAL and construction materials names such as DCC. The third is Consumer Staples & Stockpiling Plays, namely commerce names such as CPALL, BJC and CRC. At the same time, the firm advises caution on the insurance sector, which may come under pressure from a higher loss ratio.

Pi Securities stated that crude oil prices surging 4% are pressuring inflation and US yield trends, combined with foreign investors continuing net selling of Thai stocks by another 3.5 billion baht. The brokerage views the stock market as still in a phase of searching for a base, estimating the SET range at 1550 to 1570, and believes any upside is limited. It recommends raising some cash. Meanwhile, Brent crude closed up as much as 4.4% after reports that China ordered a suspension of oil product exports, which could cause global oil shortages. The US manufacturing PMI showed prices higher than market expectations, reflecting inflation that may be prolonged, and CME FedWatch believes the Fed will hold rates at its October meeting. Tonight, attention is on non-farm payrolls and the unemployment rate, which the market expects at 89,000 and 4.1% respectively. Recommended stocks include energy names PTT, PTTEP, PTTGC, and TOP; defensive names BCH, BDMS, BH, PR9, and ADVANC; and shopping center operator CPN. The target price for BCH is 13.20 baht, based on a positive view of the social security medical fee adjustment expected to conclude within October, and for PR9 at 20.00 baht, based on expectations that third-quarter 2026 earnings will expand quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year from investment in specialized treatment equipment.

Asia Plus Securities Public Company Limited, or ASPS, recommends that investors raise their cash holdings to 30% - 40% of their portfolios and shift strategy toward seeking out "stocks resilient to selling pressure" to cope with pressure on the Thai capital market from both domestic and foreign sources, particularly the selling by foreign investors who dumped Thai stocks for 7 consecutive trading days between September 22 and 30, totaling more than 30,572 million baht, pushing trading value to exceed 100 billion baht. The safe-haven stocks are divided into two main groups. The first group benefits from the weak baht amid foreign selling, namely CPF, ITC, KCE and HANA. The second group consists of low-volatility stocks entering their high season (Defensive & Healthcare), namely BH, BDMS, BCH and PR9. Meanwhile, the 5 standout stocks and DRs recommended to cope with the volatile market conditions are AAPL80, on the positive factor of the upcoming launch of 3 new smartphone models in the middle of this month; GOOGL01, on positive sentiment from the launch of the AI model "GEMINI 4 ARGON" that has risen to number 1 in the world; BDMS, on its third-quarter 2026 operating results that are clearly recovering, with revenue in July-August growing 8-9% compared with the same period last year, while the share price remains a laggard; CK, after the unlocking of the barcode law issue supports progress on the 2027 budget and new bidding projects, along with receiving dividends from its subsidiaries BEM, CKP and TTW; and ITC, whose fourth-quarter 2026 profit trend is expected to recover strongly compared with the previous quarter and which is a stock that directly benefits from the weakening baht trend.

Asia Plus Securities warns that the Thai economy is facing multiple compounding negative factors at once. Foreign investors sold Thai stocks on a net basis for seven consecutive trading days, totaling 30.572 billion baht between September 22 and 30, pushing trading value above 100 billion baht, with only four SET100 stocks closing higher. The main pressure comes from the 10-year US government bond yield, which surged to 5.30%, the highest since 2007, while US inflation remains above the 2.0% target after the August 2026 PCE index expanded 3.4%. Domestically, the Royal Irrigation Department increased water discharge from the Chao Phraya Dam to 2,500 cubic meters per second and expects water from Nakhon Sawan to reach 3,000 cubic meters per second on October 2. It estimates flood damage over one week could reach 5 billion to 10 billion baht and could push third-quarter 2026 GDP down to 2.1% to 2.2%. At the same time, during Golden Week from October 1 to 7, Thailand faces image risks from flooding and airport baggage problems, while the public debt-to-GDP ratio stands at 67.45%, near the 70% fiscal discipline ceiling. The research team recommends shifting strategy from seeking rising stocks to seeking stocks resilient to selling pressure, and raising cash holdings to 30% to 40% of the portfolio, choosing stocks that benefit from a weak baht such as CPF, ITC, KCE and HANA, along with low-volatility and healthcare names such as BH, BDMS, BCH and PR9.

Pi Securities Public Company Limited, or Pi, estimates that the Thai stock market index will move within a range of 1,590 to 1,620 points, believing the market will not panic over the flooding in many areas of Bangkok because the situation is expected to improve soon and is unlikely to be as severe as the great flood of 2011. Pi therefore recommends investing in sectors not affected by the floods, namely hospitals such as BDMS and BCH, retail such as CPALL, energy such as PTT, PTTEP, PTTGC and TOP, and exporters such as ITC and TU. Statistics from the great flood of 2011 show that the hardest-hit sectors were packaging, down 44 percent, electronics, down 35 percent, and transport, down 22 percent, while sectors that outperformed the market were healthcare, down only 1.4 percent, ICT, down 5 percent, real estate investment trusts, down 7.5 percent, and commerce, down 12.6 percent. One month after the situation eased, the stocks that rebounded most prominently were construction materials, up 32 percent, petrochemicals, up 32 percent, packaging, up 18 percent, and food, up 11 percent. On external factors, the Dow Jones index closed up 478 points, or 0.9 percent, last Friday, supported by Microsoft and artificial intelligence stocks, while US consumer confidence figures came in higher than the market expected, though the trend is still declining on concerns about rising goods prices. Brent crude oil prices closed down 2.1 percent on Friday, but this morning rebounded 1 percent after reports that the United States rejected Iran's proposal and indicated that further attacks could occur.

Dr. Chalerm Harnphanich, Chief Executive Officer of Bangkok Chain Hospital Public Company Limited, or BCH, disclosed that the Election Committee for Employer Representatives and Insured Person Representatives resolved to postpone the election date for the Social Security Board from September 27 to October 11, 2026, due to flood situations in many areas. This does not affect the certification of the meeting results of the Subcommittee on Medical Treatment Fee Rates, which is expected to reach a conclusion on adjusting service rates before October 24, and is expected to take effect in the fourth quarter of 2026 or at the latest on January 1, 2027. The company has not yet included this matter in its 2026 growth projections. Meanwhile, the flood situation in Bangkok and its vicinity affected the number of patients seeking services only slightly, specifically during periods of heavy rain, and both Thai and foreign patients quickly returned to normal service use. Only the Chaengwattana branch is in a near-flood condition, while the bed occupancy rate remains at a high level. For the third-quarter 2026 outlook, continued growth is expected from the high season. The subcommittee is scheduled to hold its third meeting on October 5, and if no conclusion is reached, a fourth meeting may be held before October 24, which is the date the subcommittee's term expires. Kasikorn Securities assesses that the new Social Security Board is likely to begin operations within November, compared with the previous expectation of October, and maintains a neutral view on the hospital group, with an assumption of a 5% increase in the flat-rate payment rate starting in 2027. It recommends buying BCH with a target price of 12.50 baht and RJH with a target price of 17.20 baht, and recommends holding CHG with a target price of 1.69 baht.

Kasikorn Securities expects the SET Index to swing within a range of 1,580 to 1,630 points this week, after the index returned to stand above 1,600 points last week, supported by Fitch's upgrade of Thailand's outlook from Negative to Stable, strong August export figures, and buying in DELTA on the recovery of global technology stocks. On Friday, the Thai market closed at 1,607.63 points, up 0.32%, driven by heavy buying in electronics and construction. For today, the brokerage estimates the SET Index range at 1,590 to 1,620 points, reflecting short-term negative sentiment from weekend flooding in Thailand and lingering geopolitical risks. It noted that US-Iran geopolitical risk remains a key factor supporting a recovery in oil prices and could add pressure on inflation, the US dollar and bond yields. Domestically, investors must monitor the flood situation, which could weigh on short-term sentiment. Statistics on Thai floods from 2006 to 2024 show the SET fell an average of about 1% in the one month after such events, but the impact this time is expected to be limited, so the pullback is seen as an opportunity to accumulate. On key economic factors, investors should watch ISM and PMI readings, US employment and unemployment figures, and US PCE and Core PCE, which will affect the direction of Fed policy. This week's strategy therefore focuses on stocks with good earnings growth prospects and low risk, with ADVANC, BCH, CPALL and STECON chosen as the top stocks of the week. It set a base price for CPALL at 57.20 baht with a buy recommendation, expecting 2026 profit to grow 9% year on year, and a base price for ADVANC at 385.34 baht, viewing the stock's pullback as bringing its valuation back to an attractive level and lifting its dividend yield to 4.8%.

The research team at Asia Plus Securities stated that fund flow remains a pressure point, while flood risk in Bangkok adds downside to the economy and the SET. Foreign capital flowed out of the Thai stock market for four consecutive trading days, totaling 8.2 billion baht between September 22 and 25, with net selling every day, while domestic investors were the main buyers, reflecting that buying in the market still relies more on domestic flow than on a return of foreign capital. During the recent holiday period, Bangkok faced nearly 48 hours of continuous heavy rain, with accumulated rainfall in some periods exceeding 300 millimeters over two to three days, causing many canals to reach full capacity and flooding in many areas, including some locations that are not normally flood-prone. The risk has therefore shifted from water awaiting drainage to disruption of travel, trade, and economic activity, which is significant because Bangkok accounts for roughly one-third of the country's GDP in terms of gross provincial product. Compared with major floods in the past, in 1983 the SET fell for five consecutive months, accumulating a 9.4% decline; in 1995 it fell for five months, down 14.2%; and in 2011 it dropped sharply by 19.2% in just two months before water entered Bangkok severely. The research team therefore views flooding as a factor that raises risk premium rather than waiting to see maximum damage before acting. For investment strategy, Asia Plus divides the relevant stocks into three groups based on the period in which they benefit. The first is consumer retail goods, namely CPALL, CPAXT, and BJC, which may see short-term demand from stockpiling of food, drinking water, and essentials. The second is hospitals, namely BDMS and BCH, which may benefit in the short to medium term from patients and diseases that come with flooding. The third group, which benefits more clearly during the receding water and recovery phase, includes HMPRO, GLOBAL, DOHOME, TASCO, and DCC, driven by demand for construction materials, repair equipment, and home renovation.

Kasikorn Securities assesses that the Thai stock market index will trade in a range of 1580-1630 points this week, with the market still volatile in line with swings in crude oil prices that accelerated last week, creating concerns over inflation in the period ahead. However, hopes remain for the US and Iran to return to further negotiations, which is a pressure keeping Brent crude oil prices unlikely to pass 110 dollars per barrel. On economic data this week, investors are advised to keep a close watch on the US Core PCE report, which is expected to hold steady at plus 3.3%, and if the actual figure comes in below market expectations, it will help the market further ease inflation concerns. For investment strategy this week, the recommendation is to wait for dips to accumulate shares with strong earnings prospects, such as the electronics, hospital, and construction contractor groups, as well as stocks tied to the Data Center theme. The standout stocks of the week are DELTA and BCH. For DELTA, the fundamental price is given at 300.00 baht, viewing the recent correction as merely a short-term reset, while AI demand remains strong from accelerating hyperscaler capex and rising demand for power and cooling systems per rack. Gross profit margin and earnings are expected to recover in the second half of 2026 after pressure from chip costs, inventory, and product mix clears up, with normal profit CAGR expected at around 32% in 2026-2028, and the buy recommendation is maintained with a target price of 300 baht. For BCH, the buy recommendation is maintained with a target price of 12.50 baht, based on improving profit forecast trends, with an expected earnings recovery in the second half of 2026 and upside from SSO service rate adjustments and M&A. The third-quarter 2026 outlook is stronger on a recovery in Thai patients, better SSO revenue, and growth in foreign patients, especially from the Middle East and CLMV. Valuation remains attractive, with the target price based on DCF at a WACC of 8.2%, offering a dividend yield of around 4-5% in 2026-2027, while no increase in SSO service rates is the main downside risk.

Krungsri Securities has a positive view on Bangkok Chain Hospital, or BCH, maintaining a Buy recommendation with a target price of 12.00 baht from a closing price of 10.90 baht, implying 10% upside. It expects healthcare revenue in the third quarter of 2026 to recover 6-7% from the same period a year earlier, after a 1% decline in the first half of 2026. In July 2026, revenue grew 7% and accelerated to about 8-9% in August 2026. On social security revenue, which accounts for 38% of total healthcare revenue, Krungsri estimates that a 10% increase in the capitation rate from 1,808 baht would lift SSO revenue by about 4% and net profit by about 11%, while adding roughly 0.60-0.70 baht to the target price. Meanwhile, from September 1, 2026, BCH began consolidating the operating results of Rajavej Ubon Ratchathani Hospital, which has average revenue of about 400,000 to 500,000 baht per month. Krungsri expects BCH revenue of 12.284 billion baht in 2026, up from 11.913 billion baht in 2025, and net profit of 1.338 billion baht in 2026, from 1.316 billion baht in 2025, before rising to 1.425 billion baht in 2027. It values the company using a DCF method with a WACC of 7.7% and a 2027 target price of 12.00 baht.

Krungsri Securities, or KSS, said in an analysis that healthcare stocks remain attractive, supported by cooperation between insurers and private hospitals that is evolving into a Healthcare Ecosystem covering prevention, screening, treatment and rehabilitation. This should draw Thai patients back for continuous service use and build a stable long-term revenue base. A survey found that domestic insurance revenue for BDMS, BH, PR9 and BCH grew at average rates of 12%, 16%, 12% and 7% respectively during 2023-2025. In the first half of 2026, domestic insurance revenue at BDMS, BH and PR9 still grew 2%, 1% and 8% respectively year on year, while BCH fell 6%. The share of domestic insurance revenue in total revenue, ranked from highest to lowest, was BDMS at 31%, PR9 at 26%, BCH at 24% and BH at 14%. The research team assesses that hospital sector earnings have passed their bottom in the second quarter of 2026 and are entering the high season for domestic service use, and therefore selects BDMS with a target price of 25 baht, PR9 with a target price of 24 baht and BCH with a target price of 12 baht as its top picks. Tisco Securities raised its fair value for PR9 to 24.00 baht from 22.70 baht and maintained its buy recommendation, expecting core business revenue in the third quarter of 2026 to be 1.47 billion baht, up 6% year on year and 11% quarter on quarter. Net profit is expected at 225 million baht, up 1% year on year and 22% quarter on quarter, while EBITDA is expected at 372 million baht, up 13% year on year and 19% quarter on quarter. It also raised its 2026-2028 net profit forecasts by 2.9%, 3.7% and 4.9% respectively. CGS International (Thailand), or CGSI, estimates that combined net profit for the hospitals under its coverage will rise 11% year on year and 31% quarter on quarter, and recommends a take-profit level for PR9 at 20.00 baht and a stop-loss at 19.20 baht.

The research team at CGSI, or CGS International Securities (Thailand), expects hospital sector earnings to recover in the third quarter of 2026, forecasting that combined revenue for the six hospital operators under coverage will grow 11% year on year and 13% quarter on quarter. The year-on-year increase is largely driven by the merger between RAM and THG. Excluding THG's results from RAM's consolidated financial statements, combined revenue is expected to grow 8% year on year and 13% quarter on quarter. Most hospitals, with the exception of BDMS, should see revenue growth of about 5% year on year on the return of foreign patients, particularly from Myanmar and the Middle East. BDMS is expected to post the strongest revenue growth in the sector at 10% year on year, helped by a low base and the outbreaks of influenza and COVID-19. On net profit, CGSI expects the hospitals under coverage to post combined net profit growth of 11% year on year and 31% quarter on quarter. PR9 is forecast to see net profit rise 11% year on year and 35% quarter on quarter to 248 million baht, while BCH will benefit from a higher share of Middle Eastern patients seeking treatment for complex diseases, putting its net profit for the first nine months of 2026 at 71% of the research team's full-year 2026 profit forecast. CGSI believes the sector's overall net profit has already passed its trough, and therefore recommends maintaining an Overweight rating on the sector, selecting BH and PR9 as its top picks on their higher share of foreign patients than peers and greater flexibility in adjusting strategy.

The research team at Asia Plus Securities issued an analysis of hospital sector stocks, assigning an "overweight" investment rating after finding an acceleration in influenza and COVID-19 outbreaks in the final stretch of the third quarter of 2026. Influenza patients between September 13 and 19 rose to 48,100 from 21,753 the previous week, while COVID-19 cases rose to 34,798 from 15,897. More than 50 to 60 percent of the new patients are in Bangkok, spanning both children and working-age adults. The research team takes a positive view of the hospital sector, especially BCH and BDMS, which derive roughly 87 percent and 69 percent of revenue respectively from Thai patients. BCH's hospital revenue in August rose 10 percent year on year, accelerating from 7 percent growth in July, while BDMS came in at 9 to 10 percent growth, accelerating from 8 percent, and September is expected to continue growing. The team therefore assesses that third-quarter 2026 operating results have a chance of being the strongest quarter of the year. The research team picked BDMS and BCH as top picks. For BDMS it maintained a "buy" recommendation with a 2027 fair value of 25.00 baht, while BCH has a fair value of 12.00 baht with a "trading buy" recommendation, after its share price rose and already reflected some of the positive factors. However, BCH still has upside from an adjustment to social security treatment fees that is expected to become clear by the end of October. If the per-head capitation rate rises 10 percent, it is expected to lift social security revenue by 3 percent and 2027 profit by 4 percent, which is not yet included in the estimates.

The US Federal Reserve voted unanimously 12–0 to raise interest rates by 0.25% to a range of 3.75–4.00%, its first hike since 2023, and signaled it may raise once more this year. Its latest projections put the year-end 2026 rate at about 4.1%, with 2027 likely holding steady before a possible cut in 2028. Several brokers assess the meeting as negative for the Thai stock market in the short term, because US Treasury yields and the dollar are likely to strengthen, which could pressure foreign capital flows and share prices, especially growth stocks and those with high P/E ratios, amid inflation still above the 2% target and oil prices holding above 100 dollars a barrel, forcing the market to cope with a prolonged period of high interest rates. Tisco Securities estimates the SET will move in a range of 1,570–1,660 points, with support at 1,570–1,580 points and resistance at 1,630 and 1,660 points, and highlights the energy and commodities group such as PTTEP, PTT, SPRC, TOP, IVL, PTTGC, CPF, TFG, GFPT, TVO, SCGP and SCCC; the banking and insurance group such as KBANK, KTB, TTB, BLA and TLI; and the AI, infrastructure and power group such as HANA, AMATA, WHA, GULF, EGCO, ADVANC, TRUE and STECON. Meanwhile, Krungsri Securities favors domestic and defensive plays with clear revenue and cash flow, especially BDMS and BCH, and warns that expensive, rate-sensitive stocks such as DELTA could come under pressure if the Fed signals more sustained rate hikes than the market expects.

Pi Securities estimates the SET index today will move in a range of 1570 to 1595, viewing Non Bank stocks as attractive for accumulation again on expectations of lower yields ahead. It names stocks in this group including MTC, SAWAD and TIDLOR. Meanwhile, US stock markets closed higher, with the DJIA up 0.61% and the S&P 500 up 1.14%, after the Fed raised interest rates by 25 basis points and signalled it may hike once more this year. Brent crude fell to around 104 to 105 dollars per barrel after Middle East concerns eased somewhat and Saudi Arabia said it would resume oil exports, helping push the US 10-year yield and 30-year yield lower. On US economic data released overnight, initial jobless claims came in at about 196,000, below market expectations. For short-term strategy, it recommends TECH names including DELTA and KCE after the Kospi rose about 2.5% this morning, as well as the tourism group including AOT, MINT, CENTEL, AWC, CPALL, CPN and HMPRO, and the hospital group including BDMS, BCH and PR9.

The Federal Reserve's monetary policy committee voted unanimously to raise the policy interest rate by 0.25% to a range of 3.75–4.00%, as the market expected, while its Dot Plot signaled one more 25 basis point hike to 4.00–4.25% by the end of this year, even as the overall picture reflects a High for Longer stance. Efinancethai gathered the views of analysts from four houses. Krungsri Securities expects the SET to rebound today, with resistance at 1,575 and 1,583 points and support at 1,550 and 1,545 points. Finansia Syrus Securities expects the SET Index to move Sideways to Sideways Up in a range of 1,555–1,572 points. Pi Securities assesses a range of 1,550–1,580 points, and Aira Securities says the market has already priced in the concerns. Sectors seen benefiting include commercial banks, with standout picks KBANK, BBL, KTB, SCB and KKP; exporters and electronic components, DELTA, HANA, TU and ITC; Value Play and medical stocks, BDMS, BCH and BH; groups that get a psychological boost from softer crude oil prices, such as airlines AOT, THAI and BA, construction materials and contractors TASCO, STECON and PYLON, power and utilities GULF, GPSC and BGRIM, and hotels AWC and ERW. Stocks seen under pressure include groups carrying high financial costs, such as utilities and power, and industries tied to falling oil prices, such as oil and refineries, amid psychological pressure after Brent crude fell sharply to US$105 a barrel.

Analysts at Krungsri Securities, or KSS, assess that this meeting of the US Federal Reserve is likely to raise the policy rate by 0.25% in what is being called an Insurance Rate Hike, a pre-emptive move. The market has already priced in about 92% odds of a hike this round, so the bigger driver for the market is the direction of the Dot Plot, along with inflation projections and the number of remaining rate increases ahead. KSS believes that if the Fed signals a pause to assess more economic and inflation data, the stock market could see a short-term rebound, or Relief Rally, with domestic and defensive stocks drawing more attention, especially hospitals such as Bangkok Dusit Medical Services, or BDMS, and Bangkok Chain Hospital, or BCH. If instead the Fed signals continued rate hikes beyond market expectations, that would pressure stocks with high valuations that are sensitive to bond yields, such as Delta Electronics (Thailand), or DELTA. Meanwhile, Phillip Securities (Thailand), or PST, assesses that the Thai stock market is likely to move sideways down in the short term on investors reducing risk ahead of the Fed meeting outcome, with the 2-year bond yield rising to 4.69% while the 10-year yield climbed to 5.04%, the highest levels since 2024 and 2007 respectively. As for Thai stocks that benefit from interest rates holding at a high level, the research team names the banking group: TMBThanachart Bank, or TTB, Kasikornbank, or KBANK, SCB X, or SCB, Kiatnakin Phatra Bank, or KKP, and Tisco Financial Group, or TISCO. In the insurance group: Bangkok Life Assurance, or BLA, Thai Life Insurance, or TLI, and Dhipaya Group Holdings, or TIPH.

InnovestX Securities Company Limited expects the Thai stock market to remain volatile and has unveiled four standout stock themes to navigate the SET Index falling below 1,600 points. It estimates support at 1,580 and 1,575 points, with resistance at 1,605 and 1,610 points, and recommends a Selective Buy strategy focused on accumulating shares as prices decline. The first theme covers defensive stocks and high-dividend stocks expected to deliver consistent dividend yields above 5% per year, namely BBL, KTB, HMPRO, AP, SCCC and PTT. The second theme covers stocks benefiting from global economic factors and high bond yields. In the energy group it picks PTTEP, BCP, TOP and SPRC, while in shipping it selects PSL and TTA. High bond yields are a positive factor for banks, namely KTB, BBL and KBANK, as well as life insurers BLA and TLI, after the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds rose to 5% for the first time in nearly three years. The third theme covers stocks benefiting from government policy, namely GULF, GUNKUL, AMATA and WHA, on progress with the draft PDP2026 plan and policies supporting rooftop solar, while STECON, CK and SCCC fall in the construction and construction materials group. As for economic stimulus measures, CPALL, CPAXT and BJC are seen benefiting from the extension of the Thai Chai Thai Plus program, while CPALL, CRC, ERW, CENTEL and AOT are supported by the Thai Tiew Thai Plus program. DELTA, HANA and KCE fall under the theme of promoting investment in data centers and artificial intelligence. The final theme covers laggard stocks, namely AP, PR9, SAWAD, HMPRO, BDMS, TU, BCH, MTC and TIDLOR, whose second-half 2026 earnings are expected to grow both year on year and compared with the first half of the year.

Pie Securities stated that the U.S. stock market remains volatile due to signals of slowing investment from AI leaders, pressuring the SEMI group, while U.S. bond yields continue to rise across all maturities, reflecting concerns over inflation and declining confidence in the U.S. government. The S&P 500 fell 0.48% and the Nasdaq dropped 0.56% as investors worried about an AI slowdown following a proposal by the CEO of Anthropic calling for a pause in AI development, leading to selling in chip and data center stocks. Meanwhile, WTI crude oil closed above 100 dollars per barrel after Saudi Arabia shut down the East-West Pipeline. GOOGL rose 3.2%, MSFT gained 2%, and META added 2.7%. The CME FedWatch tool assigns a 92% probability of a rate hike at the upcoming meeting. For the domestic market, the SET is estimated at 1,580 to 1,605 points. This morning, the KOSPI fell 0.6%, which may pressure tech stocks such as DELTA and HANA. The strategy therefore focuses on 13 value stocks: banking group BBL, KBANK, KTB, SCB; hospital group BDMS, BH, BCH, PR9; retail group CPALL, CPN, HMPRO; and export group ITC, TU, which benefit from the weakening baht.

Krungsri Securities recommends buying shares of Bangkok Chain Hospital Public Company Limited, or BCH, with a target price of 12.00 baht, viewing the revenue recovery in the third quarter of 2026 as a short-term catalyst, while an adjustment to social security treatment fees and M&A are medium-term upside. Krungsri research expects medical revenue in the third quarter of 2026 to grow 6-7% year on year, driven by increased service usage among both Thai and foreign patients. A key highlight is that BCH derives as much as 38% of its total medical revenue from social security, or SSO. The research study indicates that a 10% increase in the flat-rate social security treatment fee from 1,808 baht would boost net profit by about 11% and add roughly 0.60 to 0.70 baht per share to the fair value. In addition, from September 1, 2026, BCH will begin consolidating the operating results of Rajavej Ubon Ratchathani Hospital, which has average revenue of about 400,000 to 500,000 baht per month, helping to expand its revenue base and extend long-term growth. BCH shares in the afternoon traded at 11.00 baht, up 0.10 baht, or 0.92%, with trading value of 12.65 million baht.

Tisco Securities has raised its fair value for shares of Bangkok Chain Hospital Public Company Limited, or BCH, to 12.80 baht from 10.90 baht, maintaining its "Buy" recommendation and shifting its valuation base to the end of 2570. The research team raised its net profit forecasts for 2569-2571 by 4.6%, 4.7% and 5.3% respectively, to reflect actual results in the first half of 2569, a better outlook for the second half of 2569, and the inclusion of the acquisition of Rajavej Ubon Ratchathani Hospital in its estimates. It expects total revenue in 2569 to be flat compared with the previous year, while the margin will fall from 23.9% in 2568 to 22.7% in 2569 due to the loss of Cambodian patients and a decline in inpatient numbers. BCH also announced a special dividend of 0.20 baht per share, bringing total interim dividends to 0.35 baht per share, or a payout ratio of 142% for its first-half 2569 results. The research team therefore raised its full-year dividend per share forecast from 0.40 baht to 0.65 baht, and expects the special dividend to lift BCH's ROE to 9.4% in 2569F from a previous estimate of 8.8%, before recovering steadily to 9.8-9.9% in 2570-2571F. Key positive factors include the possibility that the SSO reimbursement rate will be raised as early as November 2569, as well as a recovery in the Cambodian and Kuwaiti markets.

Asia Plus Securities research department stated that Riyadh Air will launch direct flights between Riyadh and Bangkok starting September 2, 2026, and plans to increase frequency to 7 flights per week by October 2026. This will enhance convenience for patients from Saudi Arabia and the Middle East to access Thai medical services, especially for complex diseases such as heart disease, cancer, and orthopedic conditions, which are self-pay groups with high revenue per case. Currently, Saudi tourists traveling to Thailand exceed 200,000 per year, or about 27-28% of all Middle Eastern tourists. The research department believes that BH will benefit the most, given its foreign patient revenue accounts for as much as 67% of hospital revenue, and revenue from Middle Eastern patients is about 22% of total revenue. Although revenue from Saudi patients accounts for only 1.0% of total revenue, compared to BCH at 0.6% and BDMS at 0.1%, it is expected that this market will grow faster than the average for foreign patients over the next 3-5 years, driven by a population base of over 35 million and strong purchasing power. Meanwhile, BDMS and BCH are likely to benefit secondarily, especially BDMS, which can expand into Wellness, Preventive Medicine, and Longevity Programs that are gaining popularity among Saudi clients. The research department has upgraded its investment stance on the hospital group to "overweight" from expectations of the strongest third-quarter 2026 earnings of the year, and has selected BH as a top pick with a "buy" recommendation and a 2027 fair value of 225.00 baht.

Krungsri Securities Public Company Limited assesses that the profits of hospital groups will pass their lowest point in the second quarter of 2026 and recover in the second half of the year, supported by the arrival of the high season and seasonal epidemics that increase the use of services by Thai patients. Meanwhile, foreign patients show a continuous recovery trend, with the July revenue of most hospitals accelerating clearly from the first half of the year. It is expected that profits in 2027 will grow better due to recovering revenue and improved operating leverage, as well as positive structural factors from the growth of health insurance and the opportunity to raise social security medical service rates, which will be an upside to profits and support a valuation re-rating. Currently, the hospital group trades at a PE for 2027 lower than -1.0 standard deviation. The preferred stocks are BDMS (target price 25 baht) and PR9 (target price 24 baht), while BCH (target price 12 baht) is the preferred stock in the social security hospital group. Data from the Department of Disease Control indicates that the influenza situation has accelerated during July to August, with the average number of patients per week increasing from 9,400 cases in July 2025 to 14,200 cases in July 2026 (+50% year-on-year) and further increasing to 17,341 cases during August 1-23, 2026 (+35% year-on-year), reflecting a more severe outbreak during the rainy season. This will support the use of services by Thai patients in the third quarter of 2026 and help accelerate the recovery of domestic revenue after a rather weak first half. In July, the revenue of BDMS, BCH, CHG, and PR9 grew by 8%, 7%, 5%, and 7-8% year-on-year, respectively, compared to the first half at +1%, -1%, +3%, and +3% year-on-year. Meanwhile, BH is expected to see revenue growth of 3% year-on-year in the third quarter of 2026, similar to the first half, reflecting a better recovery across almost the entire group, supported by the treatment of complex diseases, the recovery of Thai and foreign patients, as well as seasonal factors and epidemics during the rainy season.

BCH or Bangkok Chain Hospital Public Company Limited expects its operating results in the third and fourth quarters of 2026 to grow strongly compared to the same period last year, as this is the high season for the hospital business, with seasonal epidemics and continuous rainy weather. This has pushed the average bed occupancy rate of hospitals in the network up to 65-70%, with a significant increase in the number of inpatients (IPD), especially for respiratory diseases and RSV in young children. Meanwhile, foreign patients continue to recover, particularly from the CLMV group and the Middle East market, which has grown by more than 100% in every quarter since the beginning of the year. The company expects the proportion of revenue from foreign patients in 2026 to increase to approximately 14-15%, up from the previous peak of 18% before the pandemic. As for the adjustment of medical service fees under the Social Security scheme, it is expected to be concluded by October 24, 2026, with BCH being 100% confident that there will be an increase in service fees, as there has been no adjustment for four years. Meanwhile, the budget based on the Relative Weight (RW) index has been finalized, with a guaranteed payment of 12,000 baht throughout the year. Currently, BCH has nearly 1.3 million insured persons in its network, and it is expected that the opening of two new hospitals will add approximately 200,000-300,000 more insured persons. The Samut Prakan branch is expected to open by the end of this year or early 2027, while the Rayong branch is scheduled to open next year, with plans to open a branch in Pattaya in the future. At the same time, the company has started recognizing revenue from the acquisition of Kasemrad International Hospital Ubon Ratchathani since August 1, and is considering domestic M&A deals to drive growth.

Asia Plus Securities assesses that the Thai stock market in September still faces pressure from geopolitical risks, rising oil prices, and foreign capital outflows, but there are still opportunities for selective stock picking, especially stocks that benefit from the weakening baht and rising commodity prices. The firm highlights top picks BBL, PTT, and BCH. Brent crude oil prices surged to $90.49 per barrel, while WTI stood at $86.27 per barrel. This raises the probability of a U.S. Federal Reserve rate hike at its September meeting to 65.4%, and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose to 4.75%, the highest in a year. Foreign investors were net sellers in the Thai stock market in August, with net selling of 24.565 billion baht, and accumulated net short positions in the futures market of over 51,000 contracts. This pushed the baht to weaken to 33.16 baht per U.S. dollar, opening opportunities for three stock groups: export groups led by HANA, SVI, DELTA, and KCE; tourism groups led by AOT, AAV, BA, MINT, CENTEL, and ERW; and hospital groups led by BH, BDMS, PR9, and BCH. The Thai stock market structure has a 26% share of commodity stocks, helping to keep the index less volatile than the region. Meanwhile, Bitcoin risks a consolidation in September, with a recommendation to take short-term profits in DR: COIN01 and DR: HOOD80, and to watch for speculative opportunities in Tesla stock via DR: TSLA80 ahead of the Cybercab launch event.

Asia Plus Securities assesses that the renewed tensions in the Middle East, following the US attack on an island in the Strait of Hormuz, prompting Iran to retaliate by striking US allies in the UAE and Jordan, will pressure global financial markets. However, the structure of the Thai stock market, with its high proportion of commodity stocks, will help support the index. Foreign investors have accumulated net sales in the Thai stock market totaling 24.565 billion baht, while in the futures market (TFEX), foreigners have continued to accumulate net short positions for two consecutive months, totaling over 51,000 contracts. This puts downward pressure on the baht, which recently stood at 33.16 baht per US dollar, benefiting export, tourism, and hospital groups, especially stocks like STA (+7.01%), KCE (+6.14%), TASCO (+5.95%), as well as IRPC and SPRC, which have shown notable gains. The research department recommends a Selective Buy strategy for dividend-paying stocks and upstream energy, highlighting BBL, trading at a P/BV of only 0.6 times, cheaper than the group average of 1.2 times; PTT, benefiting from higher crude oil prices; and BCH, with a recovering earnings outlook. Meanwhile, attention should be paid to today's European CPI data, expected at +3.3% YoY, and US CPI on September 11, expected to remain steady at +3.4% YoY, as well as Tesla shares, which rose +5.5% ahead of the Cybercab launch event.

Bangkok Chain Hospital Public Company Limited (BCH) is moving forward with expanding its hospital network both domestically and in border areas. The company plans to invest approximately 490 million baht to acquire the assets of Kasemrad International Hospital Ubon Ratchathani, and will begin operations on September 1, 2026, to increase its patient base in Ubon Ratchathani Province and open opportunities to receive patients from southern Laos. Meanwhile, this September, the company will open a new building at Kasemrad Hospital Mae Sai in Chiang Rai Province, adding outpatient services, an emergency room, a pediatric center, dental services, and increasing inpatient beds. It will also link operations with Ban Mae Sai Children's Hospital and Kasemrad Sriburin Clinic, Chiang Saen branch, to screen and refer patients for specialized care. In addition, the company plans to renovate Kasemrad Hospital Ramkhamhaeng by submitting an EIA application to add a specialized medical center and a 700-car parking building, and to construct a new 14-story building at Kasemrad Hospital Rattanathibet, increasing beds from 119 to 220. It will also develop two new hospitals, each with 270 beds: Kasemrad Rayong, expected to open in Q4 2027, and Kasemrad Suvarnabhumi, expected to open in Q1 2028.

The Cabinet meeting approved in principle a draft royal decree to extend Social Security coverage under Section 33 to three groups of employees previously exempted: those in agriculture, forestry, and animal husbandry; employees of individual employers; and employees of stall-holder employers. This is expected to add 550,000 insured persons in 2026 and 1.05 million by 2030. Krungsri Securities views this as a positive sentiment for hospital groups treating insured patients, with upside to revenue in the medium to long term. Hospitals with the highest social security revenue in the first half include BCH at 38% and CHG at 30%, while RJH has 53%, SKR 36%, VIH 26%, and PHG 40%. The firm maintains a bullish stance on the hospital group, expecting profits to have passed the trough, supported by the high season and the increase in social security treatment rates. Top picks are BDMS with a target price of 25 baht and PR9 with a target price of 24 baht. BCH, with a target price of 12 baht, is the biggest beneficiary if treatment rates are adjusted.

Bangkok Chain Hospital Public Company Limited, or BCH, said third-quarter 2026 operating results are likely to continue recovering from the second quarter because this is the high season for the business. The company began seeing good signals from late May through June, and expects fourth-quarter 2026 growth to continue on the back of recovering foreign customers, especially the Middle East segment, which has grown 100% since the first quarter of 2026, particularly Qatar. The hospital still targets single-digit revenue growth this year. The company is in talks on more than 10 mergers and acquisitions, and will select only hospitals in suitable locations that can genuinely generate growth, after its latest investment in Ratchavej Ubon Ratchathani Hospital worth about 490 million baht, which is expected to be completed by the end of this month. It also plans to modernise systems to generate profit quickly. In addition, BCH is preparing to meet the Social Security Board for the second time on 7 September 2026 to adjust capitation rates for all items, with completion expected within 90 days or before 24 October 2026. The company is confident that next month's Social Security Board election will not affect the discussions because this is routine work that must be forwarded to the tripartite board, and the Social Security Fund remains strong after the maximum contribution was raised to 875 baht per month from 750 baht.

Bualuang Securities assesses that hospital stocks have already passed their low point of the year in the second quarter and will recover in the third quarter, driven by seasonal factors and pent-up demand from the Middle East. Combined core profit of the four hospital stocks under coverage was 5.7 billion baht, down 4% year-on-year and 10% quarter-on-quarter, on combined revenue of 37 billion baht, up 1% year-on-year but down 3% quarter-on-quarter. The quarterly decline came from softer Thai patient volumes due to seasonality and economic conditions, while the fly-in business continued to grow. Average gross margin was 36.5%, down 110 basis points year-on-year and 90 basis points quarter-on-quarter, due to higher depreciation from capacity expansion. BH and PR9 still posted profit growth from fly-in demand, while BDMS was most affected by fewer Cambodian patients. BCH beat estimates as social security revenue helped offset weaker general patient volumes. For the third quarter, the picture improves as flights between the Middle East and Bangkok return to pre-conflict levels, combined with the high season for both Thai and fly-in patients. July data already show revenue increasing both year-on-year and month-on-month. On financial positions, BH stands out most, with second-quarter ROE rising to 27.6% from 21.9% in the first quarter and 25.9% in the second quarter last year, along with the highest net cash position in the group. BDMS is the only company with net debt, but its debt-to-equity ratio is only 0.1 times. Bualuang maintains an overweight stance on the hospital sector relative to the market, with BH as the top pick on the recovery of Middle Eastern patients and a strong financial position across the board. For BDMS, Bualuang keeps a buy rating with a target price of 23 baht for end-2027, viewing the second quarter as likely the low point. July revenue trends have started to return to year-on-year growth for both Thai and foreign customers, leading to expectations that third-quarter core profit will increase both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter. Third-quarter support comes from the disease outbreak season, no high base from Cambodian customers as in the previous year, and Myanmar revenue still growing strongly at 42% year-on-year in the second quarter, continuing from 43% year-on-year in the fourth quarter last year and the first quarter this year. Third-quarter gross margin is expected to rise to 35-37% from a higher proportion of more complex cases. Net debt-to-equity is only 0.1 times, and second-quarter receivable turnover rose to 43 times, up 7% year-on-year. Inventory turnover was 16 times, above the group average of 12 times. The stock trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of about 18 times, below the long-term average by 1.5 standard deviations. First-half profit accounted for 45% of the full-year estimate, close to the normal proportion, so full-year profit is still seen as in line with estimates. For BH, Bualuang keeps a buy rating with a target price of 220 baht and still selects it as the standout hospital stock. The third quarter has two main supports at the same time: the recovery of Middle Eastern patients travelling for treatment and the high season for Thai patients. Higher treatment intensity per case supports both revenue and gross margin, even though foreign patient numbers have not fully recovered. Third-quarter core profit is expected to grow faster year-on-year than in the second quarter and to increase quarter-on-quarter on seasonality. Preliminary July data indicate that Thai patients have started to increase from rainy-season illnesses, while flight routes from the Middle East have returned to pre-conflict levels, although patient numbers still lag. The impact of Cambodian patients suspending services after the border incident on 24 July 2025 will not affect third-quarter figures. On financial position, second-quarter ROE was 27.6%, up from 21.9% in the first quarter and 25.9% in the second quarter last year, clearly higher than other stocks in the group. The company has a net cash position and receivable turnover rose to 84 times from 59 times in the second quarter last year. The stock trades at a 2027 price-to-earnings ratio of about 18 times, while the target price of 220 baht is based on a price-to-earnings ratio of 21 times, or one standard deviation below the 10-year average of 30 times. Dividends are an additional upside, with the first-half interim dividend of 4 baht per share higher than expected. If a special dividend is paid at the same proportion as in 2025, dividend yield would rise to 6.0%, compared with a base case of 2.6%. However, the main point of the investment idea still places more weight on a return to profit growth than on dividends as a supplement.

Analysts at InnovestX Securities expect combined net profit of Thai listed companies in the third quarter of 2026 to continue growing from the same period last year, despite pressure from geopolitical risks and a prolonged El Niño. Combined net profit in the second quarter of 2026 expanded 14.3 percent from a year earlier and 12.0 percent from the previous quarter, marking a sixth consecutive quarter of growth and a fifth consecutive quarter of double-digit growth, supported by higher margins and selling price increases amid expanding demand, especially in energy, petrochemicals, and construction materials, which benefited from the Middle East conflict. More than 50 percent of the 107 listed companies with market forecasts reported net profit above expectations. The broker recommends avoiding sectors where earnings remain weak and accumulating five The Star stocks: HANA, ERW, PR9, BCH, and TIDLOR, which have potential for standout profit growth both from a year earlier and from the previous quarter, driven by company-specific positive factors and government stimulus measures.

UOB Kay Hian Securities Thailand maintains a buy recommendation on BCH shares with a target price of 14 baht, based on an EV/EBITDA multiple of 10 times for 2026. Second-quarter 2026 net profit came in at 343 million baht, down 11.6 percent from a year earlier but up 28.2 percent from the previous quarter, in line with estimates. The research team sees a positive trend for the third quarter of 2026, driven by a rise in Thai patient numbers amid disease outbreaks and the possibility that Social Security Office medical fees will increase by around 10 percent by late in the third quarter or early in the fourth quarter of 2026. Revenue from Middle Eastern patients also remains strong, growing about 40 percent year on year in the second quarter, even as revenue from Cambodian patients fell 70 to 80 percent from a year earlier. The company announced an interim dividend of 0.15 baht per share and a special dividend of 0.20 baht per share, representing a yield of about 3 percent.