Muangthai Capital Public Company Limited

US non-farm payrolls rose by just 29,000 in September, far below the 90,000 economists had expected in a Reuters poll, and figures for the two prior months were revised down. The unemployment rate edged up to 4.2%, against economists' expectations that it would hold steady at 4.1%. The data led investors to scale back bets that the Fed will raise interest rates by at least 0.25% at its late-October meeting, with CME FedWatch showing the odds falling to 22.7% from 24.4% the previous day and 64.2% a week earlier. This supported US stocks and bodes well for Thai equities, especially rate-sensitive sectors such as property, power plants and financials, including AEONTS and SAWAD, which trade at 0.79 and 0.90 times book value respectively. Analysts, meanwhile, are highlighting TIDLOR and MTC as top picks. All 16 analysts polled unanimously recommend buying TIDLOR, which Kasikorn Securities gives a mid-2027 target price of 24.40 baht after raising this year's profit forecast by 2% to 6.163 billion baht, lifting 2027 by 5% to 6.638 billion baht and 2028 by 3% to 7.3 billion baht, while raising its long-term ROE assumption to 16% from 15.2%. For MTC, Krungsri Securities maintains a buy rating with a 2027 target price of 44 baht, citing manageable asset quality and potential upside to this year's and next year's net profit from provisioning expenses.

Muangthai Capital Public Company Limited, or MTC, has set a growth target of approximately 8% for its loan portfolio and revenue in 2026, while aiming to expand its customer base from the current 3.7 million to 4 million. Executive Chairman Parithat Patcharachai disclosed that recent flooding affected about 50 of the company's roughly 9,000 branches, mostly in Bangkok and nearby provinces such as Pathum Thani, but the situation was short-lived, lasting only 3 to 4 days, and therefore did not significantly impact third-quarter 2026 earnings. The company has prepared case-by-case assistance measures for affected customers. On asset quality, as of the second quarter of 2026, the company's non-performing loans stood at 2.6%, while its total loan portfolio was approximately 190 billion baht, and its branch network increased to about 9,000 branches from 8,906 in the second quarter of 2026. Regarding loan demand trends, Parithat said it has slowed slightly due to geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, but is expected to recover well in 2027, with the loan rejection rate trending downward. Meanwhile, the agricultural sector is being supported by higher rice prices, which have risen to around 8,000 baht per cart, helping to improve the debt-servicing capacity of farmers, who are the company's main customer group.

Maybank Securities (Thailand) Public Company Limited has raised its 2026 SET Index target to 1,590 points from 1,550 points, but maintained a Neutral view because the overall market upside is not particularly high. Speaking at an online seminar titled "Decoding Thai Stocks, Fourth Quarter: Finding the Next Winners," the firm said earnings support from listed companies is not yet broad-based, with upward earnings revisions concentrated mainly in the electronics and energy sectors, while bond yields in several countries remain elevated, pressuring valuations of risk assets. On the Thai economy, Maybank expects GDP growth of 2.4% in 2026 and 2.7% in 2027, supported by exports, private investment, and a recovery in tourism, though the government's fiscal capacity has diminished amid a higher public debt level. For its fourth-quarter strategy, Maybank recommends focusing on adjusting weights between industry groups and selecting individual stocks rather than investing based on index direction. It highlights three standout groups: consumer finance, where valuations are starting to look attractive again, with TIDLOR, KTC, and MTC as top picks; tourism and transport, where earnings momentum continues, with AWC, AOT, BA, and MINT; and hospital businesses, which have stable revenue and specific supporting factors, with BH and CHG. At the same time, it advises increased caution in three groups: utilities and energy, which has been downgraded from Positive to Neutral; petrochemicals; and retail.

Ms. Thida Kaewbutta, Director of Strategy at Srisawad Corporation Public Company Limited, or SAWAD, disclosed that the company is preparing relief and assistance measures for customers affected by flooding. The title-loan portfolio will see only limited impact because the flooding occurred only in certain areas, and she is not worried that credit quality will be downgraded from Tier 1 to Tier 2 or Tier 3. She also expects lending to grow in line with the targets set for the remainder of the year. Meanwhile, Mr. Trin Sittisawas, Director of Securities Analysis at Yuanta Securities (Thailand) Company Limited, stated that commercial banks and non-bank lenders will face short-term impacts from debt-relief measures by the government sector and the Bank of Thailand, which will slightly pressure yields and may force additional provisioning over roughly one to two quarters. Commercial banks will be affected only to a limited degree because they have shifted their customer base toward large corporates and salaried employees. As for TISCO and KKP, although they have auto-hire-purchase loans, most of their portfolios consist of new cars covered by insurance against flooding, so KKP is seen as a standout stock if its price declines. The non-bank group is more at risk, especially TIDLOR and SAWAD, which hold four-wheel vehicle title-loan portfolios. TIDLOR has a significant proportion and is more exposed to collateral value and the prices of repossessed cars, while SAWAD has SCAP, which focuses on motorcycle hire-purchase that is easier to repair and has already accelerated write-offs at a high level. MTC, whose main portfolio is motorcycle title loans and whose customer base is not concentrated in flooded areas, is a standout stock. Meanwhile, AMC players such as BAM face limited impact and may even benefit from buyer behavior that places less emphasis on locations prone to flooding.

Securities analysts at Bualuang, or BLS, assess that flooding in some areas of Bangkok, its surrounding provinces and the eastern region will have a limited impact on title-loan providers. They assume that if 10% of those areas are affected, this would account for 5% of TIDLOR's loans, 4% of MTC's and 3% of SAWAD's, and they expect 20% of customers in this group to face temporary repayment problems of about one month. That would force the companies to set aside additional provisions of roughly 10% of the affected loans in the third and fourth quarters of 2026, which would have a low impact on 2026 net profit, cutting MTC's and TIDLOR's earnings by only 2% and SAWAD's by about 1%. CGS International (Thailand), or CGSI, said TIDLOR will be hit hardest because it has many branches in flooded areas and its collateral is four-wheeled vehicles at risk of damage, and it may consider setting aside an additional management overlay in the third quarter of 2026. MTC and SAWAD will be less affected because most of their branches are outside risk areas. KTC may be affected by higher overdue loans in the fourth quarter of 2026, but the impact on loan growth is limited because its coverage ratio stood at a strong 400% at the end of the second quarter of 2026. The house maintains a neutral weighting on the loan sector, with TIDLOR and MTC as its top picks in the group.

Krungsri Securities Public Company Limited, or KSS, estimates that the government's new economic stimulus package, with a combined value of more than 50 billion baht, will add roughly 0.2% of GDP to Thailand's near-term economic momentum, and possibly 0.3% when including the money people contribute into the system. The Cabinet on 22 September 2026 approved raising the state welfare card purchase allowance by another 700 baht per person, from 300 baht to 1,000 baht per person in October 2026, and also approved the Thai Chuay Thai Plus (additional) project, which covers the welfare allowance increase and the extension of the Thai Chuay Thai Plus 60/40 project under a combined framework of 42 billion baht. The additional 60/40 project will run from 1 October to 30 November 2026, with the state co-paying 60% of the value of goods and services, capped at no more than 200 baht per person per day and no more than 1,000 baht per person over the whole project. Meanwhile, the disaster insurance project has been allocated a budget of 15.5 billion baht, split into 15 billion baht for group residential insurance premiums and 500 million baht for group accident insurance, covering floods, windstorms and earthquakes from 1 October 2026 to 1 October 2027. KSS named the beneficiary stocks as TNP, MTC, KTC, JMT and COM7, while not yet naming any insurance stock as its top pick from the disaster insurance theme, and said the insurance group is suitable for speculative monitoring until project details become clearer.

Fitch Ratings has revised Thailand's credit rating outlook from Negative to Stable while affirming the rating at BBB+, an investment grade level. As a result, bank stocks rose across the board at 3:00 p.m., led by KBANK up 2.77% to 260.00 baht on trading value of 3.83 billion baht, followed by BAY up 2.61% to 39.25 baht, SCB up 2.30% to 156.00 baht, CREDIT up 1.32% to 23.00 baht, BBL up 1.29% to 196.00 baht, KTB up 1.11% to 45.50 baht, and TISCO up 0.39% to 128.00 baht. TISCO Securities noted four main reasons behind the outlook upgrade: reduced political risk following the election and the formation of a stable government, continuity of economic policy, an improving public debt outlook expected to hold below 63% of GDP in fiscal year 2028, better-than-expected GDP growth driven by investment in AI and data centers, and a strong external position supported by expectations of a return to a current account surplus of 1.5% next year. Based on a study of market movements after Moody's last upgraded Thailand's outlook on April 21 this year, bank stocks delivered positive returns and outperformed the SET across all timeframes, with SETBANK at +1.16%, +1.22%, +4.56%, and +28.56% versus the SET at -0.11%, +0.56%, +3.43%, and +11.55% respectively. The recommended strategic stocks are KBANK with a base target of 290 baht, KTB at 50 baht, and TTB at 3.3 baht. Meanwhile, the yield on 10-year Thai government bonds fell from 2.38% to 2.26%, a decline of 12 basis points, which is positive for interest-rate-sensitive stocks. Preferred picks are MTC at 55 baht, TIDLOR at 25 baht, and power plant stocks such as GULF at 82 baht and EGCO at 144 baht.

TCG is preparing to expand its credit guarantee base to Micro SMEs, Nano SMEs, and freelancers through partnerships with non-bank groups and virtual banks, targeting a guarantee volume of 70 billion baht, which will generate a multiplier effect of up to 4 times, equivalent to injecting more than 280 billion baht into the economy. Currently, TCG supports loans covering only 50% of its existing potential, and is in discussions with 17 qualifying non-bank providers out of 37 to set loan limits of 20,000-30,000 baht per borrower, with a conclusion expected in October 2026. Analysts at KGI said the policy will benefit the non-bank sector, especially MTC, which currently has nano-finance loans accounting for about 5% of its total loans, while SAWAD, TIDLOR, KTC, and AEONTS do not yet have loans in this segment. If the credit guarantee project expands, it will help support stronger loan growth for the non-bank sector.

Pi Securities Public Company Limited said investment sentiment in global stock markets is beginning to ease after the US Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 0.25% as the market expected, while signalling it may hike once more this year. As a result, yields on 10-year and 30-year US government bonds declined, and the brokerage views them as likely to have passed their peak. Meanwhile, Brent crude oil prices fell to trade around 104-105 dollars per barrel after concerns over the Middle East situation eased somewhat. In the US stock market, the Dow Jones index closed up 0.61% and the S&P 500 rose 1.14%, led by technology stocks NVIDIA up 2.5%, Micron Technology up 5.5%, and Amazon up 2.2%. For the Thai stock market, Pi Securities estimates today's index range at 1,570-1,595 points, supported psychologically by the South Korean stock market, which rose about 2.5% in the morning, and by Thai technology stocks such as DELTA and KCE. On investment strategy, it views the non-bank group as increasingly attractive for accumulation now that bond yields are likely to gradually decline, and therefore picks MTC, SAWAD, and TIDLOR. Stocks that benefit from slowing oil prices include AOT, MINT, CENTEL, AWC, CPALL, CPN, and HMPRO, as well as hospital stocks BDMS, BCH, and PR9.

InnovestX Securities has assessed three possible outcomes for tomorrow's US Federal Reserve meeting, after US August inflation figures came in close to expectations. The Consumer Price Index stood at 3.4% year-on-year, unchanged from the previous month, while Core CPI slowed from 2.5% to 2.4% year-on-year. However, the month-on-month figures came in slightly above expectations, and the overall inflation level remains above the Fed's target, keeping the market concerned about the interest rate path. The first scenario is a hold, which is the base case, but the market assigns it only about 10% probability, while nearly 90% expect a rate hike. The second scenario is a single Dovish Hike with no signal of further increases, which could pressure the SET to pull back in the short term before building a base. The third scenario is a Hawkish Hike with a signal of further increases, in which case the Dot Plot must be watched to see whether it reflects a higher rate path for next year. For Thai equity portfolios, InnovestX recommends two defensive themes for low-risk investors. The first is a Domestic Play, focusing on big-cap stocks with domestic revenue, such as CPALL, CPN, CRC, BDMS, BCH, PR9 and CHG. The second is a High Dividend Play, stocks expected to deliver a consistent dividend yield above 5% per year, namely BBL, KTB, HMPRO, AP, SCCC, PTT, FTREIT and LHSC. For investors with a high risk appetite, the firm recommends a Tactical strategy based on the meeting outcome. If the Fed holds rates, it sees a Risk-on play in MTC, SAWAD, TIDLOR, AP, SIRI, DELTA, HANA and KCE. If it is a Dovish Hike, it recommends buying on dips. If it is a Hawkish Hike, it recommends raising cash holdings and waiting for a market correction over roughly three to six months before considering groups that benefit from high interest rates and a weak baht, namely BBL, KBANK, KTB, TLI, BLA, TU and ITC.

InnovestX Securities Company Limited expects the Thai stock market to remain volatile and has unveiled four standout stock themes to navigate the SET Index falling below 1,600 points. It estimates support at 1,580 and 1,575 points, with resistance at 1,605 and 1,610 points, and recommends a Selective Buy strategy focused on accumulating shares as prices decline. The first theme covers defensive stocks and high-dividend stocks expected to deliver consistent dividend yields above 5% per year, namely BBL, KTB, HMPRO, AP, SCCC and PTT. The second theme covers stocks benefiting from global economic factors and high bond yields. In the energy group it picks PTTEP, BCP, TOP and SPRC, while in shipping it selects PSL and TTA. High bond yields are a positive factor for banks, namely KTB, BBL and KBANK, as well as life insurers BLA and TLI, after the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds rose to 5% for the first time in nearly three years. The third theme covers stocks benefiting from government policy, namely GULF, GUNKUL, AMATA and WHA, on progress with the draft PDP2026 plan and policies supporting rooftop solar, while STECON, CK and SCCC fall in the construction and construction materials group. As for economic stimulus measures, CPALL, CPAXT and BJC are seen benefiting from the extension of the Thai Chai Thai Plus program, while CPALL, CRC, ERW, CENTEL and AOT are supported by the Thai Tiew Thai Plus program. DELTA, HANA and KCE fall under the theme of promoting investment in data centers and artificial intelligence. The final theme covers laggard stocks, namely AP, PR9, SAWAD, HMPRO, BDMS, TU, BCH, MTC and TIDLOR, whose second-half 2026 earnings are expected to grow both year on year and compared with the first half of the year.

Muangthai Capital Public Company Limited, or MTC, has filed a draft registration statement with the Securities and Exchange Commission to prepare the issuance and offering of social development bonds. The bonds are unsubordinated, unsecured, and pay interest every three months, and will be offered to general investors and institutional investors, with proceeds to be invested in projects related to ESG. This bond issue is divided into 4 series. Series 1 has a tenor of 2 years, 10 months and 5 days, maturing in 2029, with a coupon of 2.65% per year. Series 2 has a tenor of 5 years and 26 days, maturing in 2031, with a coupon of 3.00% per year. Series 3 has a tenor of 7 years and 29 days, maturing in 2033, with a coupon of 3.45-3.55% per year. Series 4 has a tenor of 10 years, maturing in 2036, with a coupon of 3.90-4.00% per year. Subscription is open from 27-29 October 2026. Bangkok Bank, Siam Commercial Bank and CIMB Thai Bank are joint lead managers for the bonds offered to general investors and institutional investors, with only institutional investors who are natural persons eligible to subscribe in the capacity of general investors. Kasikornbank and Bank of Ayudhya are joint lead managers for the bonds offered to general investors and institutional investors, and also serve as the bondholders' representative. The bonds and the issuer carry an A-(tha) credit rating assigned by Fitch Ratings (Thailand) Limited on 5 September 2025.

Muangthai Capital or MTC expects its business in the second half of 2026 to recover after the agricultural sector shows signs of improvement. The company targets loan portfolio and revenue growth of 8-10% in 2026 through its network of over 9,000 branches nationwide. Mr. Paritat Patcharai, Chief Executive Officer, said that higher prices of palm oil, rubber, and off-season rice have helped increase income and liquidity for farmer customers. Meanwhile, financial costs remain manageable, and the company maintains an NPL coverage ratio as high as 140% to absorb volatility, with NPL at 2.61%. Krungsri Securities research maintains a "Buy" recommendation and a 2027 target price of 44 baht, viewing asset quality as controllable and expecting net profit for 2026-27F to have upside potential from credit costs. The current share price trades at a PBV of 1.3-1.4 times, which is 1.75 standard deviations below the average.

Land and Houses Securities has issued a research report recommending buying shares of MTC and TIDLOR, with target prices of 42.5 baht and 24.2 baht, respectively. For MTC, the brokerage expects second-half profit to continue growing and potentially reach a new high, supported by accelerating loan growth, improved net interest margin (NIM) due to lower funding costs from bond refinancing, and cost control as the branch network approaches its target of 9,000 branches. Although the company has revised down its loan growth target for this year to 8-10%, this still represents high growth. Meanwhile, a focus on low-risk loans and economic stimulus measures should support asset quality. For TIDLOR, the brokerage expects second-half profit to grow year-on-year, driven by seasonal loan acceleration and a further 5-10 basis point decline in funding costs, which should widen the interest rate spread. The insurance brokerage business continues to provide steady income. Asset quality remains strong, with NPL at around 1.5-1.6% and a coverage ratio above 320%. The company has lowered its credit cost target for 2026 to 2.0-2.5% from the previous 2.2-2.8%, following better-than-expected performance in the first half.

Farm income in July accelerated 10% from a year earlier, marking a fifth straight month of growth and the strongest pace in 20 months, helped by a 12% rise in agricultural prices while output fell 2%. An analysis from Yuanta Securities said products with improving prices included cassava, palm oil and chicken eggs, while hog prices declined. Durian and hog output increased, while cassava, rambutan, mangosteen, oil palm and chicken egg production decreased. Farm income is expected to keep accelerating from the third quarter through the fourth quarter of 2026, supported by continued growth in key product revenue, output affected by drought and lower global supply, a low base last year, and a recovery cycle that typically lasts about 12 months. This cycle has already risen for five months, so there is a chance of at least another five to six months of gains. The agricultural economy accounts for 10% of GDP and involves about 30% of the population, so it is expected to significantly support consumption in the second half of 2026. It should also improve asset quality for financial institutions and ease household debt pressure, which is positive for finance stocks, while stimulating investment in machinery, tractors, water pumps, fertilizer, seeds, solar energy and farmland improvement. Recommended stocks include GFPT, TFG, STA, GLOBAL, DOHOME, MTC, SAWAD, FSMART, DRT, DCC and SAT. The analysis also suggests monitoring APURE, or Agripure Holdings Public Company Limited, whose second-quarter 2025 results recovered with net profit of 56 million baht, accelerating from 12 million baht in the first quarter of 2026 and swinging from a loss of 34 million baht in the second quarter of 2025. This was driven by export sales to Europe surging eight to ten times after Europe restricted Chinese goods seen as dumped, sending large order volumes to APURE. The company has already planned for drought-related costs, and customers bear all shipping costs, so third-quarter 2026 profit is expected to accelerate both quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year, with the best chance in ten quarters. Fourth-quarter profit is expected to be stable quarter-on-quarter and grow strongly year-on-year. If this materializes, full-year profit would be around 250 million baht, up from only 27 million baht last year, implying earnings per share of 0.26 baht. The current share price trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of only 8 times, with an expected dividend yield of 8 to 9 percent per year. Technically, the price has just moved back above the 200-day moving average with positive signals, with resistance at 2.60 baht and 2.80 baht.

Muangthai Capital, or MTC, expects a bright business trend in the second half of 2026, supported by government economic stimulus measures and the planting season, which is boosting demand for working capital in the farm sector. Chairman of the Executive Committee Paritat Phetampai said the company is maintaining its loan portfolio growth target of 10 to 15 percent this year and has yet to see signs of accelerating non-performing loans, because it has spent more than three years restructuring the portfolio to reduce the share of unsecured loans while developing staff to provide financial planning to customers for more than ten years. At the same time, the company successfully offered five tranches of debentures worth 10 billion baht, which were fully subscribed by investors. The proceeds will be used to repay existing debentures and support future loan portfolio expansion. MTC is also continuing to expand its branch network, opening 81 new branches in the first quarter to reach 8,754 branches, with plans to add about 300 to 400 more branches this year to meet rising credit demand and support long-term growth.

CGS International Thailand, or CGSI, has raised its year-end 2026 target for the SET Index to 1,690 points from 1,630 points, while lifting its market earnings per share estimate for this year by 8 percent. The move follows a 10 percent year-on-year and 14 percent quarter-on-quarter increase in combined net profit for the Thai listed companies it covers in the second quarter of 2026, led by the energy and petrochemical sectors. Excluding those two sectors, however, combined net profit fell 25 percent from a year earlier and 6 percent from the previous quarter. The research team recommends overweight positions in healthcare, tourism, consumer products, and industrial estates. It also updated its top picks, removing ERW and CRC and adding CPALL and PTT. The latest list consists of BH, PR9, THAI, PTT, CPALL, CPN, AMATA, WHA, GULF, TRUE, TFG, KBANK, MTC, and TIDLOR.

Muangthai Capital Public Company Limited, or MTC, reported profit growth both quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year, setting a new record high for the tenth consecutive quarter. Meanwhile, its share price has continued to move more slowly than its peers or the broader market, reflecting significant remaining upside. Analysts view that the persistently strong operating performance has not yet been fully reflected in the share price, which could present an attractive opportunity for investors looking for stocks with solid fundamentals whose prices have yet to catch up.

Muangthai Capital, or MTC, reported second-quarter 2026 net profit of 1.91 billion baht, up 4.5% from the previous quarter and 15.7% from a year earlier, beating the Bloomberg Consensus estimate of 1.83 billion baht. The result was supported by loan growth accelerating to 189 billion baht, up 2.5% from the prior quarter and 7.9% from a year earlier. Net interest margin recovered to 13.4% from 13.1% in the first quarter. First-half credit costs came in at 2.34%, below the full-year target of no more than 2.6%, creating a chance for full-year credit costs to come in below the guidance range and support second-half earnings. The company expects loan growth to accelerate in the second half on seasonal factors and some relaxation of approval criteria, targeting full-year loan growth of 8 to 10% from a year earlier while still emphasizing debtor quality. The latest NPL ratio stood at 2.61%, up slightly from 2.57% in the first quarter, but a coverage ratio of 142.6% remains a solid buffer against volatility. The average target price from IAA Consensus is 43.22 baht.

Listed leasing companies reported robust first-half 2026 results. MTC posted a net profit of 3.728 billion baht, up 15.84 percent from the same period last year, while SAWAD recorded a net profit of 3.005 billion baht, up 22.40 percent. SAK reported a net profit of 454 million baht, up 3.4 percent, and TK posted a net profit of 63 million baht. MTC is targeting 10 percent loan portfolio growth in the second half, SAWAD expects to enter its high season, and SAK is confident its full-year loan portfolio will reach 15.5 to 16 billion baht, growing 8 to 10 percent.

Bualuang Securities released analysis on JMT, MINT, BAM, KCE and MTC following analyst meetings. JMT expects cash collections in the third quarter of 2026 to recover both year on year and quarter on quarter after seeing improvement since May, supported by collections from new debt purchased in the first quarter. The research team therefore recommends buying MINT, maintaining its profit growth target of 15 to 20 percent per year during 2026 to 2028 and net debt to equity of 0.75 to 0.85 times, while keeping plans for a food IPO and asset sales. BAM still targets 2026 net profit of 2 billion baht, up 10 percent year on year, but the research team sees the slow economic recovery pressuring that target and recommends sell. KCE expects third quarter 2026 revenue to grow 13 to 15 percent quarter on quarter with a gross margin of 25 percent, with a chance for 2027 profit to exceed 2 billion baht and the share price to break above 50 baht. MTC has cut this year's loan growth target to 8 to 10 percent year on year from 10 to 15 percent previously because of stricter lending after the Middle East conflict, but the research team still recommends buy and expects third quarter 2026 net profit to reach a new high.

Major vehicle title loan and microfinance groups SAWAD, TIDLOR, and MTC are all expanding their businesses to meet loan demand expected to rise during the high season in the second half of 2026. SAWAD said it will focus on growing its title loan portfolio under a selective growth strategy, alongside expanding its insurance brokerage business and accelerating digital platforms such as e-KYC, as well as building on mobile phone hire-purchase lending through its Locked Phone system to strengthen capabilities. TIDLOR reported second-quarter 2026 total revenue of 6.143 billion baht, up 6.7 percent, and net profit of 1.5332 billion baht, up 18.3 percent from the same period last year. That brought first-half net profit to 3.147 billion baht, up 26.2 percent, driven mainly by loan portfolio growth of 2.4 percent and strong expansion in the insurance brokerage business, while asset quality management helped lower the non-performing loan ratio to 1.54 percent. MTC said it is confident its loan portfolio will grow by about 10 percent and that it will keep NPLs within target. Second-quarter 2026 results showed a total loan portfolio of 188.699 billion baht, total revenue of 8.127 billion baht, up 7.70 percent, and net profit of 1.905 billion baht, up 15.66 percent from the same period last year. First-half net profit totaled 3.728 billion baht, up 15.84 percent.

Phillip Securities maintains a buy recommendation on MTC and SAWAD after second-quarter 2026 profits grew both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter, with 2027 target prices of 42 baht for MTC and 30 baht for SAWAD. MTC's profit continued to set new highs, driven by higher interest income as lending accelerated across all categories, even though non-performing loans also rose. SAWAD's profit reached a new high broadly in line with expectations, helped by lower funding costs, provisions, and expenses, with lending turning positive across all categories and non-performing loans held steady from the previous quarter. Phillip raised its 2026 profit forecast for MTC and trimmed it slightly for SAWAD, while shifting to 2027 base-case prices and still expecting continued solid results, though asset quality needs to be monitored.

Land and Houses Securities assesses that the retail sector faces short-term challenges, with CPAXT's second-quarter profit falling 18 percent year-on-year despite higher total revenue, as selling and administrative expenses rose from accelerated branch expansion and Lotus's same-store sales declined nearly 4 percent due to indirect impacts from the Thai Helps Thai Plus scheme. Analysts expect the retail and wholesale sector to recover in the fourth quarter, which is the high season, and may get support from short-term stimulus measures such as increasing the state welfare card limit, which will benefit TNP. BJC is expected to see profit recovery in the second half, supported by its packaging business. Meanwhile, the tourism sector is viewed as the most attractive for long-term investment, as the government prepares concrete tourism stimulus measures in the fourth quarter, with recommended stocks including ERW, CENTEL, and MINT. The finance sector is a laggard with earnings poised to surge, with SAWAD expected to post quarter-on-quarter growth in the second quarter and stand out in the second half, while MTC is worth accumulating as its price has not risen much.

Analysts at Yuanta Securities Thailand forecast that MTC will report a net profit of 1.879 billion baht for the second quarter of 2026, up 14.1% from the same period last year and 3.1% from the previous quarter, marking a new quarterly record. The results are scheduled to be announced on August 11. The growth is driven by net interest income, which is expected to rise 2.2%, supported by a 2.6% acceleration in the total loan portfolio due to demand from upcountry customers at the start of the new planting season and government economic stimulus measures. Additionally, the net interest margin is expected to increase to 13.5% from 13.4% in the prior quarter, as financial costs decline following the issuance of new bonds with lower coupon rates. Non-interest income is projected to grow 2.2%, lifted by higher loan fees and insurance brokerage commissions in line with the expanding loan portfolio. Provisions are expected to rise by about 5.6%, even though the non-performing loan ratio remains stable compared to the previous quarter, reflecting a more cautious provisioning policy to buffer against future risks. The coverage ratio is expected to stay steady at 146.9%.

Analysts from leading securities firms forecast second-quarter 2025 earnings for three financial sector companies: SAWAD, TIDLOR, and MTC. Overall, net profit is expected to grow from the same period last year, supported by loan portfolio expansion and higher interest income. For SAWAD, FSS analysts project net profit of 1.43 billion baht, up 12.6 percent year-on-year, and recommend buying with a target price of 35 baht. Meanwhile, TNITY estimates net profit at 1.401 billion baht, up 10.34 percent year-on-year, and maintains a buy rating with a target price of 35 baht. For TIDLOR, YUANTA forecasts net profit of 1.455 billion baht, growing 12.2 percent year-on-year but declining 9.8 percent from the previous quarter, while keeping a buy recommendation with a new target price of 23 baht. KGI projects net profit of 1.4 billion baht, up 8 percent year-on-year, and upgrades its recommendation from sell to hold, raising the target price to 19.20 baht. For MTC, TNITY expects net profit of 1.883 billion baht, up 14.4 percent year-on-year, and recommends buying with a target price of 43 baht. FSS estimates net profit at 1.89 billion baht, up 14.7 percent year-on-year, and maintains a buy rating but lowers the target price to 40 baht.

The Ministry of Commerce reported that the inflation rate for July 2026 rose 1.95% from the same period last year, which was lower than the market forecast of 2.52% to 2.60% and slowed from June. This came after oil prices declined and the government controlled refinery-gate prices, while ready-to-eat food prices continued to rise. Core inflation stood at 1.34%, and the average for the first seven months of the year was 0.87%. The Ministry of Commerce maintained its full-year inflation target range of 1.5% to 2.5%, expecting inflation to continue increasing in August. The lower-than-expected inflation figure adds weight to the Bank of Thailand keeping its policy rate at 1.0% through the end of the year, which is positive for financial and power plant stocks, with MTC, GULF, and GPSC recommended.

Krungsri Securities expects the SET Index to fluctuate upward today within a support range of 1,610 to 1,607 points and resistance at 1,631 to 1,645 points. The risk-asset investment climate is positive after the US Treasury Secretary forecast the Strait of Hormuz could reopen within two to three days, pushing the 10-year US Treasury yield down 7 basis points to 4.61 percent and Brent crude oil prices down to 78 to 80 US dollars per barrel. Domestically, July 2023 inflation data is due today, with core inflation expected to remain within the Bank of Thailand's target range, supporting the use of low interest rates to drive the economy, especially data center investments that are becoming clearer and not affecting existing projects. Krungsri highlights three investment themes: anti-commodity stocks, conflict-resolution stocks, and thematic investment stocks, with top picks being GULF, GPSC, and MTC.

Asia Plus Securities expects the title loan group's net profit in the second quarter of 2026 at 4.8 billion baht, up 13.8% from the same period last year. It estimates that MTC will post the highest profit growth in the group at 14% year-on-year, followed by SAWAD and TIDLOR at 13.8% and 13.4% respectively. Asset quality is likely to weaken slightly but remains within manageable limits, with TIDLOR having the highest coverage ratio at around 328%, followed by MTC at around 145% and SAWAD at around 53%. The average share price of the title loan group has risen only 7% since the start of the year, still a laggard compared with the stock market's rise of around 29%. The research team continues to pick MTC because its share price is still a laggard relative to TIDLOR and has a chance to outperform if the market shifts to a risk-on mode.

Pi Securities says money is rotating into stocks that benefit from falling oil prices. Overnight, US equities rebounded as tensions between Iran and the US eased, pushing Brent crude down 4.7 percent. Tech stocks rallied, with Alphabet up 4.8 percent, Microsoft up 5 percent, Amazon up 4.6 percent, and Meta up 6 percent. The ISM manufacturing PMI came in better than expected, but the market focused more on strong earnings growth and the drop in oil prices easing inflation concerns. For the Thai market yesterday, the SET Index edged 0.1 percent lower, pressured by Delta Electronics falling 2.2 percent, while Anti-Oil plays like Home Product Center gained 4.6 percent and Central Plaza Hotel rose 3.9 percent, continuing to perform well. Pi Securities sees the SET trading in a range of 1,610 to 1,635 points today, with a strategy of accumulating stocks that benefit from lower oil prices. These include retail names like CP All, Central Pattana, CRC, ICHI, and Global; tourism plays like Central Plaza Hotel, Erawan Group, and Minor International; power plant operators like B.Grimm Power, GPSC, and Gulf Energy; finance stocks like Muangthai Capital, Srisawad, and Ngern Tid Lor; beverage names like ICHI and Carabao Group; and industrial estate plays like Amata Corporation and WHA Corporation. The broker recommends MEGA with a target price of 45 baht, citing a strong quarterly profit growth trend compared to last year, and Muangthai Capital with a target price of 39 baht, expecting second-quarter 2026 profit to hit a new record high of around 1.9 billion baht.

Krungsri Securities, or KSS, says the extension of the Thai Chuay Thai Plus measures into the fourth quarter of 2026 is a positive factor for the Thai stock market. Retail lenders such as MTC, KTC, and JMT will benefit, while ICHI is likely to gain from higher sales. KSS estimates MTC will post a net profit of 1.88 billion baht in the second quarter of 2026, up 14 percent from a year earlier, and sees a chance for full-year 2026 profit to beat estimates if loan-loss provisions decline. It gives a 2026 target price of 40 baht. For ICHI, KSS expects a core profit of 306 million baht in the second quarter of 2026, up 7 percent from both a year earlier and the previous quarter, with a standout dividend yield. It forecasts a 2026 yield of about 6.8 percent and expects an interim dividend for the first half of 0.50 baht per share to be announced this August.

Muangthai Capital Public Company Limited, or MTC, has won the Best Social Bond – Thailand award at The Asset Triple A Awards for Sustainable Finance 2026, reflecting the success of its social bond issuance totaling 129 million Singapore dollars. This marks MTC's first Singapore dollar-denominated bond, the first SGD bond guaranteed by the Credit Guarantee and Investment Facility for a Thai listed company, and the first social bond offered to the public in Singapore by a non-bank financial institution from Thailand. Standard Chartered Bank acted as coordinator and lead arranger. Mr. Paritat Phetampai, Chairman of the Executive Board, stated that this award reinforces the confidence of global institutional investors, and the company will use the proceeds to support loans for retail customers, farmers, and those without access to formal funding sources, in order to reduce financial inequality and sustainably drive the grassroots economy.

Krungsri Securities expects the Thai stock market today to move in a sideways-up range, with resistance at 1,635 and 1,645 points and support at 1,613 and 1,608 points, after the war situation eased when President Trump announced the cancellation of a major attack plan. Meanwhile, OPEC+ increased production by 180,000 barrels per day, causing Brent crude oil prices this morning to drop to 83 to 85 US dollars per barrel, and the 10-year US Treasury yield fell by 5 basis points. On the domestic front, the government is pushing ahead with full-scale economic stimulus plans, setting up five committees to drive GDP growth of 3 percent per year, targeting an increase in the investment ratio to 30 percent of GDP within four years. It highlights three investment themes: investment-themed stocks, anti-commodity stocks, and stocks benefiting from easing tensions, with top picks being GULF, GPSC, and MTC.