Praram 9 Hospital Public Company Limited

InnovestX Securities Company Limited assessed its investment strategy for the fourth quarter of 2026, saying financial markets still face volatility from oil prices, inflation, interest rate direction and elevated bond yields, forcing investors to place greater weight on asset selection and investment timing. Sutthichai Kumworachai, Head of Investment Strategy & Research at InnovestX, said the firm raised its target for the Thai stock index in 2026 from 1,600 points to 1,700 points, after expecting market earnings per share in 2026 to grow about 22% and second-quarter economic data to be stronger than expected. He recommended a fourth-quarter strategy focused on stock selection rather than buying the whole market, viewing levels below 1,550 points as an accumulation point for fundamentally strong stocks such as AMATA, CENTEL, CRC, KTB and PR9. For fixed income, he recommended focusing on 3-5 year maturities to capture still-attractive carry yield and reduce risk from interest rate volatility, with an overweight to developed-market bonds. On gold, the firm maintained a positive medium- to long-term view, estimating a 12-month price target of 5,300 US dollars per ounce on demand for diversification and capital flowing back into gold ETFs. The Thai stock market from the start of 2026 through the close on October 1, 2026 saw the SET Index at 1,563.91 points, up about 24.15% from 1,259.67 points at the end of 2025. Domestic retail investors were the largest net buyers at 58,807.49 million baht, while domestic institutional investors were the largest net sellers at about 86,397.26 million baht. From late September through early October 2026, foreign investors sold Thai shares for eight consecutive trading sessions totaling more than 34,162 million baht. Data from the Thai Bond Market Association showed that in September 2026 foreign investors were net sellers of Thai bonds worth 22,003 million baht, bringing the cumulative year-to-date net foreign selling of Thai bonds to 9,426 million baht.

Pi Securities stated that crude oil prices surging 4% are pressuring inflation and US yield trends, combined with foreign investors continuing net selling of Thai stocks by another 3.5 billion baht. The brokerage views the stock market as still in a phase of searching for a base, estimating the SET range at 1550 to 1570, and believes any upside is limited. It recommends raising some cash. Meanwhile, Brent crude closed up as much as 4.4% after reports that China ordered a suspension of oil product exports, which could cause global oil shortages. The US manufacturing PMI showed prices higher than market expectations, reflecting inflation that may be prolonged, and CME FedWatch believes the Fed will hold rates at its October meeting. Tonight, attention is on non-farm payrolls and the unemployment rate, which the market expects at 89,000 and 4.1% respectively. Recommended stocks include energy names PTT, PTTEP, PTTGC, and TOP; defensive names BCH, BDMS, BH, PR9, and ADVANC; and shopping center operator CPN. The target price for BCH is 13.20 baht, based on a positive view of the social security medical fee adjustment expected to conclude within October, and for PR9 at 20.00 baht, based on expectations that third-quarter 2026 earnings will expand quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year from investment in specialized treatment equipment.

InnovestX Securities Company Limited assesses that Thailand's financial markets will remain volatile throughout the fourth quarter of 2026, pressured by interest rate hikes from major central banks worldwide. Suthichai Koomworachai, Head of Investment Strategy & Research, said there are seven signals to watch: crude oil prices, government bond yields, public debt burdens, the US election, natural disasters and the El Niño phenomenon, demand for AI technology, and the earnings of listed companies. Dr. Piyasak Manasant, Head of Economic Research, estimates the impact of flooding on the economy, especially in Bangkok, at approximately 21,000 million baht, split into about 19,000 million baht in the third quarter of 2026 and another approximately 1,800 million baht in the fourth quarter of 2026, representing pressure on GDP of about -0.11%. However, there is a positive factor from the extension of the "Thai Chuay Thai Plus Phase 2" program, which supports GDP by about +0.08%, leaving the net impact at only about -0.03%. GDP is expected to grow 2.0% both this year and next year. Meanwhile, Sittichai Duangrattanachaya, Head of Investment Strategy, views this round of flooding as only a short-term event and expects that fund flows, which saw outflows of about 30,000 million baht over the past two weeks, will return to buy after the waters recede. He gives a suitable entry point of 1,500 to 1,550 points, maintains this year's SET target at 1,700 points, and sets next year's target at 1,715 points. Top picks for the fourth quarter of 2026 include AMATA with a target price of 44 baht, CENTEL with a target price of 47 baht, CRC with a target price of 31 baht, KTB with a target price of 49 baht, and PR9 with a target price of 23 baht.

Three securities firms have shared their outlooks for the Thai stock market in the final stretch of the year, along with their SET index targets and top stock picks for investment in the fourth quarter of 2026. Each has a different view and set of recommendations based on fundamentals and market trends. InnovestX has set a SET index target of 1,715 points for 2027 and named its top picks for Q4/2026: AMATA, CENTEL, CRC, KTB and PR9. ASPS estimates a SET index target of 1,720 points for 2026 and selected CPN, CBG, THAI, BDMS, BBL, COM7, STECON and GUNKUL as its top picks. KSS expects the SET index to trade in a target range of 1,680 to 1,750 points in 2026 and highlights TOP, PTTGC, SCC, IVL, GULF, DELTA and KBANK as its top picks.

Asia Plus Securities Public Company Limited, or ASPS, recommends that investors raise their cash holdings to 30% - 40% of their portfolios and shift strategy toward seeking out "stocks resilient to selling pressure" to cope with pressure on the Thai capital market from both domestic and foreign sources, particularly the selling by foreign investors who dumped Thai stocks for 7 consecutive trading days between September 22 and 30, totaling more than 30,572 million baht, pushing trading value to exceed 100 billion baht. The safe-haven stocks are divided into two main groups. The first group benefits from the weak baht amid foreign selling, namely CPF, ITC, KCE and HANA. The second group consists of low-volatility stocks entering their high season (Defensive & Healthcare), namely BH, BDMS, BCH and PR9. Meanwhile, the 5 standout stocks and DRs recommended to cope with the volatile market conditions are AAPL80, on the positive factor of the upcoming launch of 3 new smartphone models in the middle of this month; GOOGL01, on positive sentiment from the launch of the AI model "GEMINI 4 ARGON" that has risen to number 1 in the world; BDMS, on its third-quarter 2026 operating results that are clearly recovering, with revenue in July-August growing 8-9% compared with the same period last year, while the share price remains a laggard; CK, after the unlocking of the barcode law issue supports progress on the 2027 budget and new bidding projects, along with receiving dividends from its subsidiaries BEM, CKP and TTW; and ITC, whose fourth-quarter 2026 profit trend is expected to recover strongly compared with the previous quarter and which is a stock that directly benefits from the weakening baht trend.

Asia Plus Securities warns that the Thai economy is facing multiple compounding negative factors at once. Foreign investors sold Thai stocks on a net basis for seven consecutive trading days, totaling 30.572 billion baht between September 22 and 30, pushing trading value above 100 billion baht, with only four SET100 stocks closing higher. The main pressure comes from the 10-year US government bond yield, which surged to 5.30%, the highest since 2007, while US inflation remains above the 2.0% target after the August 2026 PCE index expanded 3.4%. Domestically, the Royal Irrigation Department increased water discharge from the Chao Phraya Dam to 2,500 cubic meters per second and expects water from Nakhon Sawan to reach 3,000 cubic meters per second on October 2. It estimates flood damage over one week could reach 5 billion to 10 billion baht and could push third-quarter 2026 GDP down to 2.1% to 2.2%. At the same time, during Golden Week from October 1 to 7, Thailand faces image risks from flooding and airport baggage problems, while the public debt-to-GDP ratio stands at 67.45%, near the 70% fiscal discipline ceiling. The research team recommends shifting strategy from seeking rising stocks to seeking stocks resilient to selling pressure, and raising cash holdings to 30% to 40% of the portfolio, choosing stocks that benefit from a weak baht such as CPF, ITC, KCE and HANA, along with low-volatility and healthcare names such as BH, BDMS, BCH and PR9.

Analysts at Kasikorn Securities Public Company Limited have unveiled their Thai equity investment strategy for the fourth quarter of 2026, expecting Thailand's investment upcycle, driven by data centre investment and the PDP26 plan, to support growth momentum from the fourth quarter of 2026 through 2027. They expect power generation capacity serving data centres to rise to 5–7GW by 2030, and have raised their SET index target to 1,680 points, shifting the calculation base to an end-2027 target based on a 2027 SET EPS of 105 points and a long-term average PE of 16 times. For the fourth quarter of 2026, they highlight two themes: stocks benefiting from the new investment cycle, namely BBL, DELTA and BGRIM, and stocks with earnings recovery coupled with cost pass-through ability and room for prices to catch up, namely SCGP and CPALL. Meanwhile, analysts at InnovestX Securities have raised their 2026 SET target from 1,600 points to 1,700 points to reflect a stronger-than-expected second quarter of 2026, robust investment and economic stimulus measures, viewing 1,550 points as an attractive level for gradual accumulation, and selecting AMATA, CENTEL, CRC, KTB and PR9 as their top picks for the fourth quarter of 2026. Analysts at Trinity Securities see global stock markets in the fourth quarter of 2026 entering a tug-of-war between macro factors weighing on sentiment and micro factors still supporting the market. They estimate the SET index trading range at 1,500–1,700 points, with a base case of around 1,630 points calculated from a forward PE of 14.8 times multiplied by this year's EPS of 110 baht, and recommend a sector rotation and stock selection strategy across five favoured groups: livestock, BTG and TFG; tourism, AWC and ERW; retail with company-specific catalysts, CRC and COM7; agricultural products, STA and TVO; and beneficiaries of private-sector investment, AMATA and STECON.

Praram 9 Hospital, or PR9, has expanded its use of telemedicine for patients with mild symptoms and arranged ambulances to pick up patients facing travel restrictions, in a bid to maintain continuity of care amid heavy rain and flooding. Dr. Witthaya Wanpen, Deputy Managing Director of the Business Development and Strategic Planning Office, told the Stock Vision news team that although some patients asked to postpone appointments on September 26-27, 2026, due to travel disruptions, the hospital continues to operate as normal, and bed occupancy currently stands at around 70%, leaving sufficient capacity to handle major surgery and emergency cases. Foreign patients also continue to travel in for treatment, particularly those from the Middle East seeking care for kidney disease, diabetes and diabetic wounds, patients from Myanmar requiring cancer surgery and robot-assisted procedures using the da Vinci Robot, and patients from China seeking consultations for infertility or IVF. Operating results for the third quarter of 2026 remain in line with targets, and the company aims for single-digit revenue growth in 2026, with the fourth quarter seen as the high season for the hospital business, which is expected to help support full-year growth in line with the set target.

Asia Plus Securities said GLP-1 drugs, used to treat type 2 diabetes and, in some formulations, to control weight in obese patients, are becoming a theme that supports private hospital operators, after Thailand's Food and Drug Administration upgraded GLP-1 injectables to specially controlled drugs from 15 September 2026, requiring them to be dispensed by prescription and using a Track & Trace system to monitor distribution and reduce leakage outside the system. Novo Nordisk is pressing ahead with expanding the obesity and diabetes market, including clinical research in Thailand, after investing about 370 million baht in research and development between 2019 and 2023. The research team holds a slightly positive view on private hospitals, because tighter regulation is likely to shift the channels through which the drugs are accessed rather than reduce demand, and should draw users toward standardised hospitals and clinics. Business opportunities extend to consultation fees, laboratory tests, follow-up and care for comorbidities. The effect on short-term profit is limited, given a still-low revenue base and constraints on drug prices, access and competition. The research team keeps an overweight stance on the hospital sector and sees BDMS and PR9 as standout beneficiaries. BDMS is advantaged by a diverse patient base and a large hospital network, while PR9 stands out for its cash-paying patient base, service accessibility, value for money and specialised services. BH also benefits from a cash-paying patient base and high-spending customers, but the quantitative benefit is expected to be smaller. It maintains Buy ratings on BDMS, PR9 and BH, with 2027 fair values of 25.00 baht, 3.00 baht and 225.00 baht respectively.

Several brokers are unanimous in recommending a "buy" on shares of Praram 9 Hospital, or PR9, expecting second-half operating results to grow by leaps and bounds on the momentum of the high season in the third quarter, a period when influenza spreads and more domestic patients return to use services. At the same time, foreign customer groups, especially from the Middle East, Myanmar and Laos, have begun traveling back for continuing treatment. The health check-up service portfolio also remains strong, and the company is pressing ahead with expanding its new customer base in China through Premium IVF services, as well as returning to market to Indonesian customer groups late this year. Prasit Rattanakitkamon, assistant managing director at Asia Plus Securities, gives a "buy" recommendation with a target price of 23 baht per share, while Teerapol Udomwet, an analyst at Kiatnakin Phatra Securities, gives a target price of 24.50 baht per share, and an analysis by KGI Securities Thailand gives a target price of 21 baht per share. PR9 shares closed yesterday at 19.30 baht.

The research team at Asia Plus Securities issued an analysis of hospital sector stocks, assessing that the impact of flooding in several areas of Bangkok and its vicinity on hospital businesses is limited and only short-term. BDMS, which has a network of hospitals in the affected areas, stated that its buildings and operations were not damaged. The main impact came from travel restrictions, causing some patients to postpone appointments or non-urgent treatments by about 3–4 days, and services are expected to gradually return after the situation eases. Meanwhile, BCH, a hospital in its group located in Bangkok, was not in a directly flooded area, so it was affected only by travel restrictions and some postponed appointments. PR9 and BH are expected to be affected relatively limitedly, as they are stand-alone hospitals without networks spread widely across flooded areas. The research team expects the impact on the group's revenue and profit to be insignificant, because it is a postponement of service use rather than a loss of revenue, and after the water recedes the hospital group still has a chance to get a boost from demand for treatment deferred from the previous period, as well as patients with seasonal diseases and illnesses related to rain and flooding, especially influenza, COVID-19, and waterborne infectious diseases. The research team maintains its investment weighting for the hospital group at "overweight," viewing the flood situation as only short-term pressure rather than a risk to fundamentals and profit forecasts, and selects BDMS and PR9 as top picks with "buy" recommendations and 2027 fair values of 25.00 baht and 23.00 baht, respectively.

Kasikorn Securities assesses that the two-week delay in the election of the Social Security Office board is unlikely to affect the approval of adjustments to medical treatment service rates, which are currently under review by the subcommittee considering medical treatment rate levels. The new SSO board is expected to begin work within November, later than the previously expected October, and the board will be the one to approve the subcommittee's meeting results and set the effective date of the new service rates. Currently, the subcommittee is scheduled to hold its third meeting on October 5, at which a conclusion on the rate adjustment is expected. If no conclusion is reached, a fourth meeting may be needed on October 24, which must be held before that date because it is when the subcommittee's term expires. The research team maintains a neutral view on the hospital sector, with PR9 as its top pick, and holds a positive view that the subcommittee will consider raising the flat-rate payment by 5%, assuming the flat-rate adjustment takes effect from 2027 onward in its profit forecasts for the three social security hospital stocks under coverage. It recommends buying BCH with a target price of 12.50 baht and RJH with a target price of 17.20 baht, and recommends holding CHG with a target price of 1.69 baht. However, if the Social Security Office does not raise service rates at all, the DCF value would fall 5% for BCH to 11.9 baht, fall 4% for RJH to 16.50 baht, and fall 4% for CHG to 1.69 baht.

Krungsri Securities, or KSS, said in an analysis that healthcare stocks remain attractive, supported by cooperation between insurers and private hospitals that is evolving into a Healthcare Ecosystem covering prevention, screening, treatment and rehabilitation. This should draw Thai patients back for continuous service use and build a stable long-term revenue base. A survey found that domestic insurance revenue for BDMS, BH, PR9 and BCH grew at average rates of 12%, 16%, 12% and 7% respectively during 2023-2025. In the first half of 2026, domestic insurance revenue at BDMS, BH and PR9 still grew 2%, 1% and 8% respectively year on year, while BCH fell 6%. The share of domestic insurance revenue in total revenue, ranked from highest to lowest, was BDMS at 31%, PR9 at 26%, BCH at 24% and BH at 14%. The research team assesses that hospital sector earnings have passed their bottom in the second quarter of 2026 and are entering the high season for domestic service use, and therefore selects BDMS with a target price of 25 baht, PR9 with a target price of 24 baht and BCH with a target price of 12 baht as its top picks. Tisco Securities raised its fair value for PR9 to 24.00 baht from 22.70 baht and maintained its buy recommendation, expecting core business revenue in the third quarter of 2026 to be 1.47 billion baht, up 6% year on year and 11% quarter on quarter. Net profit is expected at 225 million baht, up 1% year on year and 22% quarter on quarter, while EBITDA is expected at 372 million baht, up 13% year on year and 19% quarter on quarter. It also raised its 2026-2028 net profit forecasts by 2.9%, 3.7% and 4.9% respectively. CGS International (Thailand), or CGSI, estimates that combined net profit for the hospitals under its coverage will rise 11% year on year and 31% quarter on quarter, and recommends a take-profit level for PR9 at 20.00 baht and a stop-loss at 19.20 baht.

Three brokerages issued their daily investment strategy views. Finansia Syrus Securities expects the SET Index to slow within a range of 1,595 to 1,610 points, pressured by a sharp rise in US bond yields, with 5-year and 10-year yields breaking above 5%, while crude oil prices turned back up above US$100 per barrel once again. CGS International (Thailand) sees the SET Index in a range of 1,600 to 1,630 points, supported by the positive factor of the US and China agreeing to extend their trade truce by another two months until January 10, 2570. DAOL expects the SET Index to move sideways after the investment mood came back under pressure from bond yields and rising oil prices. For today's top picks, PTTEP is rated 'Buy' with a target price of 180.00 baht, and AOT is rated 'Buy' with a target price of 72.00 baht. Finansia Syrus's top picks for September are BTG, HANA, ITC, PR9 and STA, with STA rated 'Trading Buy' with a target price of 23 baht. MOSHI expects same-store sales growth of 4.3% year on year in the third quarter of 2026, and PR9 expects net profit for the hospital group in the third quarter of 2026 to rise 11% year on year and 31% quarter on quarter. Meanwhile, the ADB raised its forecast for Thailand's GDP in 2026 to 2.0% from 1.8%, but cut its 2027 forecast to 1.9% from 2.0%.

CGS International Securities (Thailand), or CGSI, expects the Stock Exchange of Thailand index to hold above 1,600 points, projecting a trading range of 1,600 to 1,630 points today, even as the market faces pressure from oil prices back above 100 dollars a barrel and rising US government bond yields. The main pressure comes from the conflict between the United States and Iran, after Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian told the United Nations General Assembly on September 23 that Iran would not surrender to the United States. As a result, November Brent crude rose 3.83 dollars, or 3.86 percent, to close at 103.08 dollars a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate rose 1.64 dollars, or 1.81 percent, to close at 92.16 dollars a barrel. However, CGSI sees positive factors for the SET after the United States and China agreed to extend their trade truce by two months, to January 10, 2027, from an original expiry of November 10, 2026. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced the agreement after talks with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng. On investment strategy, CGSI recommends two top picks. The first is Moshi Moshi Retail Corporation, or MOSHI, which is expected to post same-store sales growth of 4.3 percent in the third quarter of 2026 from a year earlier, with net profit forecast to grow 14.2 percent year on year. It sets a take-profit level of 36.50 baht and a stop-loss at 35.00 baht. The second is Praram 9 Hospital, or PR9. CGSI expects revenue and profit for the hospital group to recover strongly in the third quarter of 2026 on higher numbers of foreign patients and patients with influenza and COVID-19. It expects combined net profit for the hospital group under coverage to rise 11 percent in the third quarter of 2026 from a year earlier and 31 percent from the previous quarter, with a take-profit level for PR9 at 20.00 baht and a stop-loss at 19.20 baht.

The research team at CGSI, or CGS International Securities (Thailand), expects hospital sector earnings to recover in the third quarter of 2026, forecasting that combined revenue for the six hospital operators under coverage will grow 11% year on year and 13% quarter on quarter. The year-on-year increase is largely driven by the merger between RAM and THG. Excluding THG's results from RAM's consolidated financial statements, combined revenue is expected to grow 8% year on year and 13% quarter on quarter. Most hospitals, with the exception of BDMS, should see revenue growth of about 5% year on year on the return of foreign patients, particularly from Myanmar and the Middle East. BDMS is expected to post the strongest revenue growth in the sector at 10% year on year, helped by a low base and the outbreaks of influenza and COVID-19. On net profit, CGSI expects the hospitals under coverage to post combined net profit growth of 11% year on year and 31% quarter on quarter. PR9 is forecast to see net profit rise 11% year on year and 35% quarter on quarter to 248 million baht, while BCH will benefit from a higher share of Middle Eastern patients seeking treatment for complex diseases, putting its net profit for the first nine months of 2026 at 71% of the research team's full-year 2026 profit forecast. CGSI believes the sector's overall net profit has already passed its trough, and therefore recommends maintaining an Overweight rating on the sector, selecting BH and PR9 as its top picks on their higher share of foreign patients than peers and greater flexibility in adjusting strategy.

CGS International (Thailand), or CGSI, expects the Stock Exchange of Thailand Index, or SET Index, to move in a range of 1,595 to 1,630 points today, with a tendency to remain volatile around the 1,600 level. It flagged overseas factors that warrant close monitoring, including inflation concerns from still-high oil prices, which could affect the monetary policy outlook of the US Federal Reserve, and the summit meeting between President Donald Trump and President Xi Jinping. The mood in technology stocks remains strong after the Nasdaq closed at a record high, driven by buying of artificial intelligence-related shares and stocks in the AI supply chain. For investment strategy, CGSI recommends Delta Electronics (Thailand), or DELTA, expecting revenue in the second half of 2026 to improve on gradually recovering margins, with third-quarter 2026 revenue seen growing about 15% from the previous quarter. It sets a take-profit level of 256 baht and a stop-loss at 249 baht. It also recommends Praram 9 Hospital, or PR9, citing a strong recovery in the hospital group's third-quarter 2026 earnings, helped by a rise in foreign patients and seasonal factors. It expects combined net profit for the hospital group under coverage to rise 11% from a year earlier and 31% from the previous quarter. It sets a take-profit level for PR9 at 19.70 baht and a stop-loss at 19.10 baht.

Pi Securities estimates the SET index today will move in a range of 1570 to 1595, viewing Non Bank stocks as attractive for accumulation again on expectations of lower yields ahead. It names stocks in this group including MTC, SAWAD and TIDLOR. Meanwhile, US stock markets closed higher, with the DJIA up 0.61% and the S&P 500 up 1.14%, after the Fed raised interest rates by 25 basis points and signalled it may hike once more this year. Brent crude fell to around 104 to 105 dollars per barrel after Middle East concerns eased somewhat and Saudi Arabia said it would resume oil exports, helping push the US 10-year yield and 30-year yield lower. On US economic data released overnight, initial jobless claims came in at about 196,000, below market expectations. For short-term strategy, it recommends TECH names including DELTA and KCE after the Kospi rose about 2.5% this morning, as well as the tourism group including AOT, MINT, CENTEL, AWC, CPALL, CPN and HMPRO, and the hospital group including BDMS, BCH and PR9.

Asia Plus Securities assessed PR9, noting that revenue from July to August grew 5-6% YoY, supported by Thai patients with influenza, COVID-19, and complex cases. Meanwhile, revenue from foreign patients rose 3-4% YoY on higher revenue per bill, particularly from Qatar and Myanmar, reflecting strong 3Q69 momentum. Combined with the absence of special expenses, this supports a recovery in net profit margin from 1Q69 and 2Q69. The company has begun offering Bi-Plane Angiography and HBOT services to accommodate complex cases, with additional depreciation of only 1 million baht per quarter. It will also add ICU and CCU beds in 4Q69 to support bed occupancy above 70%, as well as rising complex cases and strokes. On expanding its foreign patient base, the China market will focus on Premium IVF, while Indonesia is preparing to resume marketing late this year, with results expected to begin showing early next year. There is also upside from the opportunity to resume cooperation with Garuda airline. The research team maintains its 2026 net profit forecast at 842 million baht, up 2.3% YoY, on hospital revenue of 5,445 million baht, up 5.1% YoY, and keeps its Buy recommendation with a 2027 fair value of 23.00 baht. As for the EDGNEX Data Center, a joint venture between a Dubai capital group and PROEN, located next to Building B of Praram 9 Hospital, it has not yet received a license or begun operations. Although there are concerns about heat and electricity costs, there is still insufficient information to assess the impact, so it bears continued monitoring.

InnovestX Securities has assessed three possible outcomes for tomorrow's US Federal Reserve meeting, after US August inflation figures came in close to expectations. The Consumer Price Index stood at 3.4% year-on-year, unchanged from the previous month, while Core CPI slowed from 2.5% to 2.4% year-on-year. However, the month-on-month figures came in slightly above expectations, and the overall inflation level remains above the Fed's target, keeping the market concerned about the interest rate path. The first scenario is a hold, which is the base case, but the market assigns it only about 10% probability, while nearly 90% expect a rate hike. The second scenario is a single Dovish Hike with no signal of further increases, which could pressure the SET to pull back in the short term before building a base. The third scenario is a Hawkish Hike with a signal of further increases, in which case the Dot Plot must be watched to see whether it reflects a higher rate path for next year. For Thai equity portfolios, InnovestX recommends two defensive themes for low-risk investors. The first is a Domestic Play, focusing on big-cap stocks with domestic revenue, such as CPALL, CPN, CRC, BDMS, BCH, PR9 and CHG. The second is a High Dividend Play, stocks expected to deliver a consistent dividend yield above 5% per year, namely BBL, KTB, HMPRO, AP, SCCC, PTT, FTREIT and LHSC. For investors with a high risk appetite, the firm recommends a Tactical strategy based on the meeting outcome. If the Fed holds rates, it sees a Risk-on play in MTC, SAWAD, TIDLOR, AP, SIRI, DELTA, HANA and KCE. If it is a Dovish Hike, it recommends buying on dips. If it is a Hawkish Hike, it recommends raising cash holdings and waiting for a market correction over roughly three to six months before considering groups that benefit from high interest rates and a weak baht, namely BBL, KBANK, KTB, TLI, BLA, TU and ITC.

InnovestX Securities Company Limited expects the Thai stock market to remain volatile and has unveiled four standout stock themes to navigate the SET Index falling below 1,600 points. It estimates support at 1,580 and 1,575 points, with resistance at 1,605 and 1,610 points, and recommends a Selective Buy strategy focused on accumulating shares as prices decline. The first theme covers defensive stocks and high-dividend stocks expected to deliver consistent dividend yields above 5% per year, namely BBL, KTB, HMPRO, AP, SCCC and PTT. The second theme covers stocks benefiting from global economic factors and high bond yields. In the energy group it picks PTTEP, BCP, TOP and SPRC, while in shipping it selects PSL and TTA. High bond yields are a positive factor for banks, namely KTB, BBL and KBANK, as well as life insurers BLA and TLI, after the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds rose to 5% for the first time in nearly three years. The third theme covers stocks benefiting from government policy, namely GULF, GUNKUL, AMATA and WHA, on progress with the draft PDP2026 plan and policies supporting rooftop solar, while STECON, CK and SCCC fall in the construction and construction materials group. As for economic stimulus measures, CPALL, CPAXT and BJC are seen benefiting from the extension of the Thai Chai Thai Plus program, while CPALL, CRC, ERW, CENTEL and AOT are supported by the Thai Tiew Thai Plus program. DELTA, HANA and KCE fall under the theme of promoting investment in data centers and artificial intelligence. The final theme covers laggard stocks, namely AP, PR9, SAWAD, HMPRO, BDMS, TU, BCH, MTC and TIDLOR, whose second-half 2026 earnings are expected to grow both year on year and compared with the first half of the year.

Phillip Securities issued an analysis stating that PR9 is shifting its treatment focus from general diseases to core specialties, namely kidney disease, heart disease, and brain disease, aiming to concentrate on more complex treatments. It is also strengthening its capabilities with Bi-Plane Angiography and Hyperbaric Oxygen Therapy, which began offering services in the third quarter of 2026. The emphasis on complex disease groups is seen as having the potential to raise revenue per case and create differentiation from the competition. In the fourth quarter of 2026, PR9 plans to expand ICU, CCU, and Neuro beds from 24 to 31 to accommodate rising bed occupancy rates and complex-disease patients. If it can maintain high occupancy, the fixed costs already invested will be spread over higher revenue, helping profit grow faster than revenue. The company also targets a 27-28% share of revenue from international patients in 2026, pushing into the Myanmar, Indonesian, Middle Eastern, and Chinese markets, while keeping its marketing budget to no more than 3% of revenue and applying AI in medicine, marketing, and documentation. The research team maintains its "Buy" recommendation with a fundamental value of 24.00 baht per share.

Pie Securities stated that the U.S. stock market remains volatile due to signals of slowing investment from AI leaders, pressuring the SEMI group, while U.S. bond yields continue to rise across all maturities, reflecting concerns over inflation and declining confidence in the U.S. government. The S&P 500 fell 0.48% and the Nasdaq dropped 0.56% as investors worried about an AI slowdown following a proposal by the CEO of Anthropic calling for a pause in AI development, leading to selling in chip and data center stocks. Meanwhile, WTI crude oil closed above 100 dollars per barrel after Saudi Arabia shut down the East-West Pipeline. GOOGL rose 3.2%, MSFT gained 2%, and META added 2.7%. The CME FedWatch tool assigns a 92% probability of a rate hike at the upcoming meeting. For the domestic market, the SET is estimated at 1,580 to 1,605 points. This morning, the KOSPI fell 0.6%, which may pressure tech stocks such as DELTA and HANA. The strategy therefore focuses on 13 value stocks: banking group BBL, KBANK, KTB, SCB; hospital group BDMS, BH, BCH, PR9; retail group CPALL, CPN, HMPRO; and export group ITC, TU, which benefit from the weakening baht.

CGSI, or CGS International Securities (Thailand), estimates the SET index will trade in a range of 1,590-1,620 points today after crude oil prices jumped in the morning following Saudi Arabia's order to shut the East-West Pipeline, a key crude artery, after it was attacked by drones. WTI crude rose 2.8% to 102.87 dollars per barrel, and Brent crude rose 3.1% to 107.87 dollars per barrel. The market is watching this week's US Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting, with the CME Fed Watch Tool assigning an 86.2% probability to a rate hike to 3.75%-4.00%, while the Bloomberg Consensus expects the Fed to hold rates at 3.50%-3.75%. For recommended stocks, CGSI said PTTEP posted net profit of 27,197 million baht in the second quarter of 2026, a jump of 130% quarter-on-quarter, on strong sales volumes and a high average selling price, with a profit target of 156.00 baht and a stop-loss at 152.50 baht. PR9 is expected to see revenue and profit gradually recover in the second half of 2026, especially at hospitals with a high proportion of foreign patients, which will benefit from easing tensions in the Middle East, with a profit target of 20.10 baht and a stop-loss at 19.30 baht.

Analysts at TTB Wealth Securities Public Company Limited warn that this September's FOMC meeting is a key event the market is watching closely. If the Fed decides to raise rates, it would mark the first hike of this cycle, following six consecutive holds since the last cut on December 10, 2025. Historical data from 1994 to 2022 covering six previous hiking cycles shows that US equities and the SET typically held steady to edged slightly lower in the 15 days after the first hike, before facing greater pressure over the following 30 to 60 days. US equities fell an average of 3-4%, while the SET saw average declines of as much as 5-10%. The current cycle differs from past tightening cycles because the economy and labour market are not as hot as in 2022. So if the Fed resumes hiking, the market could face pressure from both a slowing economy and inflation that remains above the 2% target. And if the Fed hikes while the MPC holds rates steady, the US-Thailand interest rate gap would widen, adding pressure on fund flows and the baht. The groups likely to outperform in a rising bond yield environment include banks, and those benefiting from a weaker baht, such as tourism, exports, and companies with a high share of revenue in foreign currency. TTB Wealth recommends selective investment in groups with earnings growth that can withstand tight monetary policy, such as ADVANC, AMATA, WHA, KTB and BBL, and in groups that benefit from a weaker baht, such as DELTA, AOT, CENTEL, CPN and PR9.

Krungsri Securities Public Company Limited assesses that the profits of hospital groups will pass their lowest point in the second quarter of 2026 and recover in the second half of the year, supported by the arrival of the high season and seasonal epidemics that increase the use of services by Thai patients. Meanwhile, foreign patients show a continuous recovery trend, with the July revenue of most hospitals accelerating clearly from the first half of the year. It is expected that profits in 2027 will grow better due to recovering revenue and improved operating leverage, as well as positive structural factors from the growth of health insurance and the opportunity to raise social security medical service rates, which will be an upside to profits and support a valuation re-rating. Currently, the hospital group trades at a PE for 2027 lower than -1.0 standard deviation. The preferred stocks are BDMS (target price 25 baht) and PR9 (target price 24 baht), while BCH (target price 12 baht) is the preferred stock in the social security hospital group. Data from the Department of Disease Control indicates that the influenza situation has accelerated during July to August, with the average number of patients per week increasing from 9,400 cases in July 2025 to 14,200 cases in July 2026 (+50% year-on-year) and further increasing to 17,341 cases during August 1-23, 2026 (+35% year-on-year), reflecting a more severe outbreak during the rainy season. This will support the use of services by Thai patients in the third quarter of 2026 and help accelerate the recovery of domestic revenue after a rather weak first half. In July, the revenue of BDMS, BCH, CHG, and PR9 grew by 8%, 7%, 5%, and 7-8% year-on-year, respectively, compared to the first half at +1%, -1%, +3%, and +3% year-on-year. Meanwhile, BH is expected to see revenue growth of 3% year-on-year in the third quarter of 2026, similar to the first half, reflecting a better recovery across almost the entire group, supported by the treatment of complex diseases, the recovery of Thai and foreign patients, as well as seasonal factors and epidemics during the rainy season.

Praram 9 Hospital (PR9) expects its performance in the second half of 2026 to be better than the first half, with full-year total revenue growing at a mid-single-digit rate, driven by the return of foreign patients, especially from the Middle East. Meanwhile, the Myanmar market remains strong, and China is starting to recover in Q4 2026. The hospital is also entering the Indonesian market through health fairs and focusing on complex diseases to increase margins. In Q2 2026, the proportion of revenue from foreign patients reached 29%, with an average profit margin of 13-14%. Additionally, it is expanding its healthcare ecosystem by supporting startups.

CGS International (Thailand) or CGSI expects the SET index to move within the range of 1,590-1,630 points, with a chance to outperform technology stocks following global markets, after Nvidia reported better-than-expected earnings, confirming the strength of AI demand and boosting technology stocks. The Dow Jones closed up 105.56 points, or 0.20%, at 53,569.44 points, while the Nasdaq surged 411.16 points, or 1.57%, to close at 26,541.35 points. The recommended stocks are DELTA, which is expected to see revenue growth of about 15% QoQ in the third quarter of 2026, and PR9, a standout stock in the hospital group, with revenue and profit expected to gradually recover in the second half of 2026.

Praram 9 Hospital Public Company Limited, or PR9, reported its second quarter 2026 results with a net profit of 184 million baht, up 1.3% from the same period last year, representing a net profit margin of 13.9%. Revenue from hospital operations was 1,311 million baht, up 2.7% year-on-year, driven by growth in inpatient revenue (IPD) of 6.8%, while outpatient revenue (OPD) decreased 0.8% due to a decline in general medical treatments. Foreign patient revenue grew 10.8%, particularly from the Middle East and Myanmar, increasing the proportion of foreign patient revenue to 29% from 27% in the previous year. Hospital operating costs stood at 64.3%, up from 63.6%, due to higher depreciation, while selling and administrative expenses as a percentage of revenue decreased to 20.0% from 20.7%. For the third quarter of 2026, growth is expected both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter, supported by the tourism season and outbreaks of influenza and COVID in July. Hospital costs are expected to decline to 62.1% from 63.5% in the third quarter of 2025, due to better capacity utilization and a higher proportion of foreign patients. Despite investments in biplane angiography and hyperbaric oxygen therapy (HBOT), the depreciation impact is expected to be low. The company maintains its full-year revenue estimate of 5,390 million baht, up 1.9%, and net profit of 833 million baht, up 1.3%, with the first half accounting for 48.3% of revenue and 44.3% of net profit for the full year. The "Buy" recommendation is maintained with a fair value of 22.00 baht per share, based on the DCF method, with positive views on new medical equipment, the expansion of ICU and CCU towards the end of the year, and targeted marketing strategies that help control expenses well. A technical "accumulate" is recommended, with a short-term uptrend expected. Support is at 18.50-18.40 baht, with resistance at 19.10 baht; if it breaks through with increased trading volume, a short-term buy is recommended.

The Cabinet meeting approved in principle a draft royal decree to extend Social Security coverage under Section 33 to three groups of employees previously exempted: those in agriculture, forestry, and animal husbandry; employees of individual employers; and employees of stall-holder employers. This is expected to add 550,000 insured persons in 2026 and 1.05 million by 2030. Krungsri Securities views this as a positive sentiment for hospital groups treating insured patients, with upside to revenue in the medium to long term. Hospitals with the highest social security revenue in the first half include BCH at 38% and CHG at 30%, while RJH has 53%, SKR 36%, VIH 26%, and PHG 40%. The firm maintains a bullish stance on the hospital group, expecting profits to have passed the trough, supported by the high season and the increase in social security treatment rates. Top picks are BDMS with a target price of 25 baht and PR9 with a target price of 24 baht. BCH, with a target price of 12 baht, is the biggest beneficiary if treatment rates are adjusted.

Nine listed hospital companies reported standout profit growth in the second quarter of 2026 compared with a year earlier. RJH posted net profit of 112.85 million baht, up 79.63%, while RAM recorded net profit of 344.58 million baht, up 28.55%, and EKH posted net profit of 60.18 million baht, up 27.87%, helped by more Thai and foreign patients, branch expansion, and revenue from specialised medical centres. CGSI said earnings at the six hospital companies it covers appear to have passed their trough, with combined normalised profit down 2% from a year earlier and down 8% from the previous quarter. Excluding RAM, combined normalised profit fell 4% from a year earlier and 10% from the previous quarter. CGSI maintained an Overweight rating on the hospital sector and selected BH and PR9 as top picks because they have a high proportion of foreign patients and are likely to recover better than peers.

Analysts at CGS International Securities Thailand, or CGSI, estimate that normalised profit for six hospital stocks in the second quarter of 2026 fell 2% year on year and 8% quarter on quarter, which should mark the low point for this year. They expect the hospital group to recover in the second half, though the pace of recovery will vary by company. CGSI sees BH and PR9 outperforming peers because they have a higher proportion of foreign patients, particularly from the Middle East and Myanmar, as well as pent-up demand that may return as Middle East tensions ease. BDMS should also benefit from this situation, but BDMS's mid-tier hospitals, along with CHG and RAM, may still face pressure from weak domestic demand and intensifying competition. However, BCH, CHG and RAM should benefit from a low base in the third quarter of 2026, which may help net profit avoid a year-on-year decline. CGSI continues to name BH and PR9 as top picks in the sector. The healthcare index is up 5% year to date, significantly underperforming the SET Index's 29% gain, and CGSI believes current hospital share prices already reflect concerns about weaker earnings. It therefore maintains an Overweight rating, seeing key upside drivers as an easing of Middle East tensions and a faster-than-expected recovery in medical tourism. Downside risks include higher SG&A expenses and a continued slowdown in the Thai economy.

CGS International Securities Thailand expects the SET index to trend weaker in the 1,600-1,620 point range today, pressured by volatility in US government bond yields and uncertainty over the Middle East situation. Its research team said the index may decline in line with US and Nikkei equity markets this morning. It recommends PTTEP, which posted net profit of 27.197 billion baht in the second quarter of 2026, up 130 percent from the previous quarter, and PR9, whose revenue and profit are expected to recover in the second half of 2026, especially at hospitals with a high proportion of foreign patients.

Praram 9 Hospital, or PR9, said its third-quarter 2026 operating performance is showing growth compared with a year earlier, driven by a rise in foreign patients, especially from the Middle East and Myanmar, as well as more Thai patients returning for treatment. Its second-half strategy is to upgrade care for complex diseases such as kidney disease, heart disease and brain disorders, along with robotic surgery, to attract foreign patients who fly in directly for treatment. Foreign patients currently account for about 27% of the total, with Myanmar and Middle Eastern patients together making up more than half of all foreign patients. The company is confident that 2026 revenue will grow by a single-digit percentage as planned, and is also watching opportunities from Moderna and Merck's mRNA cancer vaccines, as well as government policy that could shift civil servant welfare benefits to a health insurance system, which would create a new customer base for private hospitals.

CGS International Thailand, or CGSI, has raised its year-end 2026 target for the SET Index to 1,690 points from 1,630 points, while lifting its market earnings per share estimate for this year by 8 percent. The move follows a 10 percent year-on-year and 14 percent quarter-on-quarter increase in combined net profit for the Thai listed companies it covers in the second quarter of 2026, led by the energy and petrochemical sectors. Excluding those two sectors, however, combined net profit fell 25 percent from a year earlier and 6 percent from the previous quarter. The research team recommends overweight positions in healthcare, tourism, consumer products, and industrial estates. It also updated its top picks, removing ERW and CRC and adding CPALL and PTT. The latest list consists of BH, PR9, THAI, PTT, CPALL, CPN, AMATA, WHA, GULF, TRUE, TFG, KBANK, MTC, and TIDLOR.

Bualuang Securities assesses that hospital stocks have already passed their low point of the year in the second quarter and will recover in the third quarter, driven by seasonal factors and pent-up demand from the Middle East. Combined core profit of the four hospital stocks under coverage was 5.7 billion baht, down 4% year-on-year and 10% quarter-on-quarter, on combined revenue of 37 billion baht, up 1% year-on-year but down 3% quarter-on-quarter. The quarterly decline came from softer Thai patient volumes due to seasonality and economic conditions, while the fly-in business continued to grow. Average gross margin was 36.5%, down 110 basis points year-on-year and 90 basis points quarter-on-quarter, due to higher depreciation from capacity expansion. BH and PR9 still posted profit growth from fly-in demand, while BDMS was most affected by fewer Cambodian patients. BCH beat estimates as social security revenue helped offset weaker general patient volumes. For the third quarter, the picture improves as flights between the Middle East and Bangkok return to pre-conflict levels, combined with the high season for both Thai and fly-in patients. July data already show revenue increasing both year-on-year and month-on-month. On financial positions, BH stands out most, with second-quarter ROE rising to 27.6% from 21.9% in the first quarter and 25.9% in the second quarter last year, along with the highest net cash position in the group. BDMS is the only company with net debt, but its debt-to-equity ratio is only 0.1 times. Bualuang maintains an overweight stance on the hospital sector relative to the market, with BH as the top pick on the recovery of Middle Eastern patients and a strong financial position across the board. For BDMS, Bualuang keeps a buy rating with a target price of 23 baht for end-2027, viewing the second quarter as likely the low point. July revenue trends have started to return to year-on-year growth for both Thai and foreign customers, leading to expectations that third-quarter core profit will increase both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter. Third-quarter support comes from the disease outbreak season, no high base from Cambodian customers as in the previous year, and Myanmar revenue still growing strongly at 42% year-on-year in the second quarter, continuing from 43% year-on-year in the fourth quarter last year and the first quarter this year. Third-quarter gross margin is expected to rise to 35-37% from a higher proportion of more complex cases. Net debt-to-equity is only 0.1 times, and second-quarter receivable turnover rose to 43 times, up 7% year-on-year. Inventory turnover was 16 times, above the group average of 12 times. The stock trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of about 18 times, below the long-term average by 1.5 standard deviations. First-half profit accounted for 45% of the full-year estimate, close to the normal proportion, so full-year profit is still seen as in line with estimates. For BH, Bualuang keeps a buy rating with a target price of 220 baht and still selects it as the standout hospital stock. The third quarter has two main supports at the same time: the recovery of Middle Eastern patients travelling for treatment and the high season for Thai patients. Higher treatment intensity per case supports both revenue and gross margin, even though foreign patient numbers have not fully recovered. Third-quarter core profit is expected to grow faster year-on-year than in the second quarter and to increase quarter-on-quarter on seasonality. Preliminary July data indicate that Thai patients have started to increase from rainy-season illnesses, while flight routes from the Middle East have returned to pre-conflict levels, although patient numbers still lag. The impact of Cambodian patients suspending services after the border incident on 24 July 2025 will not affect third-quarter figures. On financial position, second-quarter ROE was 27.6%, up from 21.9% in the first quarter and 25.9% in the second quarter last year, clearly higher than other stocks in the group. The company has a net cash position and receivable turnover rose to 84 times from 59 times in the second quarter last year. The stock trades at a 2027 price-to-earnings ratio of about 18 times, while the target price of 220 baht is based on a price-to-earnings ratio of 21 times, or one standard deviation below the 10-year average of 30 times. Dividends are an additional upside, with the first-half interim dividend of 4 baht per share higher than expected. If a special dividend is paid at the same proportion as in 2025, dividend yield would rise to 6.0%, compared with a base case of 2.6%. However, the main point of the investment idea still places more weight on a return to profit growth than on dividends as a supplement.

Analysts at InnovestX Securities expect combined net profit of Thai listed companies in the third quarter of 2026 to continue growing from the same period last year, despite pressure from geopolitical risks and a prolonged El Niño. Combined net profit in the second quarter of 2026 expanded 14.3 percent from a year earlier and 12.0 percent from the previous quarter, marking a sixth consecutive quarter of growth and a fifth consecutive quarter of double-digit growth, supported by higher margins and selling price increases amid expanding demand, especially in energy, petrochemicals, and construction materials, which benefited from the Middle East conflict. More than 50 percent of the 107 listed companies with market forecasts reported net profit above expectations. The broker recommends avoiding sectors where earnings remain weak and accumulating five The Star stocks: HANA, ERW, PR9, BCH, and TIDLOR, which have potential for standout profit growth both from a year earlier and from the previous quarter, driven by company-specific positive factors and government stimulus measures.

Asia Plus Securities expects hospital group profit to recover in the third quarter of 2026, growing both quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year, after second-quarter revenue fell 2.9% from the previous quarter but still rose 1.0% from a year earlier, supported by Middle Eastern patients returning after Ramadan and the easing of the Iran situation. Meanwhile, the group's normalized profit fell 5.0% from a year earlier and 12.0% from the previous quarter, led by Bangkok Dusit Medical Services falling 9% and Bangkok Chain Hospital falling 6%, while Bumrungrad Hospital and Praram 9 Hospital posted profit growth of 1.7% and 1.3% respectively. The research team maintained a market-weight rating on the hospital group, selected Bumrungrad Hospital and Praram 9 Hospital as top picks, with fair values of 220.00 baht and 22.00 baht respectively, while Bangkok Dusit Medical Services is a tactical top pick with a maintained buy recommendation and a fair value of 23.00 baht.

Kasikorn Securities maintains a buy rating on Ramkhamhaeng Hospital Public Company Limited, or PR9, with a mid-2027 target price of 20.60 baht. The broker expects third-quarter 2026 profit to improve from the previous quarter, despite risks from the Middle East situation and the impact of the tax base. Third-quarter 2026 revenue has a chance to set a new record high, supported by better fixed costs and lower selling and administrative expenses. The revenue trend from foreign patients is strengthening, driven by a recovery in Myanmar and Middle Eastern patients, while revenue from Chinese patients continues to decline. Revenue from insured patients recovered 20 percent from the previous year, thanks to expanded cooperation with domestic insurance companies. PR9 will trade ex-dividend on August 24 for a first-half 2026 dividend payment of 0.20 baht per share.