Central Retail Corporation Public Company Limited

Equity and derivatives market strategists in the research department of InnovestX Securities Company Limited, or InnovestX, assess that the current flooding will have a limited impact on the economy and the SET, because it is merely water waiting to drain from heavy rainfall, unlike the 2011 crisis. In addition, water levels in the main dams remain lower than in 2011 and 2025. If the water recedes within one to two weeks, the impact on 2026 GDP is expected to be around 21 billion baht, or -0.11%, and the firm still expects Thai GDP to grow in line with its 2.0% target in 2026-2027. Historical data shows that in cases of short-term flooding lasting no more than seven days, the SET may dip an average of 0.6% initially before recovering into positive territory within one week. In cases of major flooding lasting more than seven days, the SET typically corrects an average of 3.8% in the first month and begins to recover from the second month onward, with Domestic Play stocks leading the market's recovery. InnovestX therefore recommends a Buy on Dip strategy to gradually accumulate Domestic Play stocks across three main themes. The first is Fast Recovery Plays, namely tourism names such as CENTEL and ERW and healthcare names such as BDMS and BCH. The second is Recovery & Repair Plays, namely commerce names such as HMPRO and GLOBAL and construction materials names such as DCC. The third is Consumer Staples & Stockpiling Plays, namely commerce names such as CPALL, BJC and CRC. At the same time, the firm advises caution on the insurance sector, which may come under pressure from a higher loss ratio.

InnovestX Securities Company Limited assessed its investment strategy for the fourth quarter of 2026, saying financial markets still face volatility from oil prices, inflation, interest rate direction and elevated bond yields, forcing investors to place greater weight on asset selection and investment timing. Sutthichai Kumworachai, Head of Investment Strategy & Research at InnovestX, said the firm raised its target for the Thai stock index in 2026 from 1,600 points to 1,700 points, after expecting market earnings per share in 2026 to grow about 22% and second-quarter economic data to be stronger than expected. He recommended a fourth-quarter strategy focused on stock selection rather than buying the whole market, viewing levels below 1,550 points as an accumulation point for fundamentally strong stocks such as AMATA, CENTEL, CRC, KTB and PR9. For fixed income, he recommended focusing on 3-5 year maturities to capture still-attractive carry yield and reduce risk from interest rate volatility, with an overweight to developed-market bonds. On gold, the firm maintained a positive medium- to long-term view, estimating a 12-month price target of 5,300 US dollars per ounce on demand for diversification and capital flowing back into gold ETFs. The Thai stock market from the start of 2026 through the close on October 1, 2026 saw the SET Index at 1,563.91 points, up about 24.15% from 1,259.67 points at the end of 2025. Domestic retail investors were the largest net buyers at 58,807.49 million baht, while domestic institutional investors were the largest net sellers at about 86,397.26 million baht. From late September through early October 2026, foreign investors sold Thai shares for eight consecutive trading sessions totaling more than 34,162 million baht. Data from the Thai Bond Market Association showed that in September 2026 foreign investors were net sellers of Thai bonds worth 22,003 million baht, bringing the cumulative year-to-date net foreign selling of Thai bonds to 9,426 million baht.

Kasikorn Securities reported that same-store sales growth, or SSSG, recovered to +1.0% in September, up from +0.4% in August and +0.6% in July. That made it the best month of the third quarter of 2026, led by the food and convenience store segments, with BJC, CPALL, CRC and TAN standing out as stocks showing improving momentum. CPAXT saw its B2B business improve while B2C remained negative at a mid single-digit rate. The research team expects SSSG for the consumer staples group to accelerate to +1–2% in the third quarter of 2026 from +0.4% in the second quarter of 2026, while the luxury goods group should improve to +1–3% from +0.4%. CRC's food business remains strong at +4–6%, and TAN rebounded sharply by 10% in September. The home decoration group remains weak, with third-quarter 2026 SSSG expected to improve only slightly to about -1.0% from 1.3% in the second quarter of 2026. DOHOME came in at around +4–5% off a very low base, while GLOBAL was at about -5%, and HMPRO and CRC's hardline group remained negative at a low single-digit rate. Kasikorn Securities maintained a neutral view on the commerce sector and favours food-focused retailers such as CPALL, as well as CRC, on the momentum in their food and fashion businesses, while home decoration retailers have a chance of a strategic recovery from demand for repairs and home improvements following the floods since early October.

Trinity Securities assesses that the Thai stock market index in the fourth quarter of 2026 will fluctuate within a range of 1,500-1,700 points, noting that the current index level has fallen into a zone where reward clearly outweighs risk. For those who still hold Thai stocks at low levels, or who need to invest to reduce taxes this year, the current index area is seen as an opportunity to gradually accumulate (Buy the Dip). As for the investment strategy for the fourth quarter, the research department recommends a defensive approach focused on its quarterly recommended stocks, namely BTG, TFG, AWC, ERW, CRC, COM7, STA, TVO, AMATA and STECON.

InnovestX Securities Company Limited assesses that Thailand's financial markets will remain volatile throughout the fourth quarter of 2026, pressured by interest rate hikes from major central banks worldwide. Suthichai Koomworachai, Head of Investment Strategy & Research, said there are seven signals to watch: crude oil prices, government bond yields, public debt burdens, the US election, natural disasters and the El Niño phenomenon, demand for AI technology, and the earnings of listed companies. Dr. Piyasak Manasant, Head of Economic Research, estimates the impact of flooding on the economy, especially in Bangkok, at approximately 21,000 million baht, split into about 19,000 million baht in the third quarter of 2026 and another approximately 1,800 million baht in the fourth quarter of 2026, representing pressure on GDP of about -0.11%. However, there is a positive factor from the extension of the "Thai Chuay Thai Plus Phase 2" program, which supports GDP by about +0.08%, leaving the net impact at only about -0.03%. GDP is expected to grow 2.0% both this year and next year. Meanwhile, Sittichai Duangrattanachaya, Head of Investment Strategy, views this round of flooding as only a short-term event and expects that fund flows, which saw outflows of about 30,000 million baht over the past two weeks, will return to buy after the waters recede. He gives a suitable entry point of 1,500 to 1,550 points, maintains this year's SET target at 1,700 points, and sets next year's target at 1,715 points. Top picks for the fourth quarter of 2026 include AMATA with a target price of 44 baht, CENTEL with a target price of 47 baht, CRC with a target price of 31 baht, KTB with a target price of 49 baht, and PR9 with a target price of 23 baht.

Three securities firms have shared their outlooks for the Thai stock market in the final stretch of the year, along with their SET index targets and top stock picks for investment in the fourth quarter of 2026. Each has a different view and set of recommendations based on fundamentals and market trends. InnovestX has set a SET index target of 1,715 points for 2027 and named its top picks for Q4/2026: AMATA, CENTEL, CRC, KTB and PR9. ASPS estimates a SET index target of 1,720 points for 2026 and selected CPN, CBG, THAI, BDMS, BBL, COM7, STECON and GUNKUL as its top picks. KSS expects the SET index to trade in a target range of 1,680 to 1,750 points in 2026 and highlights TOP, PTTGC, SCC, IVL, GULF, DELTA and KBANK as its top picks.

The Investment Analysts Association (IAA) released a survey of analysts and fund managers from 25 firms, forecasting that the SET Index in the fourth quarter of 2026 will move within a range of 1,537 to 1,683 points and close the year at 1,680 points. The end-2027 target stands at 1,727 points. Market earnings per share are expected to average 103.38 baht in 2026, growing 16.41%, and 104.29 baht in 2027. The main supporting factor is the investment trend in technology and the AI supply chain at 96%, followed by listed-company earnings in 2026 at 88%, foreign capital inflows into the Thai stock market at 80%, and domestic economic recovery at 76%. The biggest risks are the US-Iran-Israel conflict situation and the direction of US interest rates, tied at 84%, followed by global oil prices at 80%. Under its economic assumptions, the association estimates average crude oil prices this year at 88.12 US dollars per barrel, GDP growth in 2026 averaging 2.20%, revised up from the 1.93% forecast in July, and GDP growth in 2027 averaging 2.07%. All analysts surveyed agree that the Bank of Thailand will hold its policy rate at 1% through the end of 2026. On investment strategy, the association recommends diversifying portfolios with 30% in foreign stocks or funds, 24.79% in Thai stocks or funds, 18.02% in bond funds, 10.21% in gold or gold funds, 10.02% in cash and short-term deposits, and 6.96% in property funds or REITs. The five standout stocks recommended by four or more firms are BDMS, KBANK, DELTA, GULF, and CRC. The association also recommends underweighting energy, petrochemical, airline, and property stocks.

InnovestX Securities assesses that the Thai stock market has declined and fallen below the 1,600-point level, pressured by three main factors: US bond yields that remain elevated, selling by foreign investors, and concerns over the impact of the flood situation. During September 22-29, 2026, foreign investors posted net selling of Thai stocks for six consecutive trading days, totaling nearly 20 billion baht. Meanwhile, the SET has risen about 27% since the start of the year, with the energy, banking, and electronics sectors up 38.5%, 32.4%, and 53.5% respectively, prompting profit-taking to reduce risk. As for the outlook for the Thai stock market, the break below the 75-day moving average has damaged the short-term positive structure, with 1,560 points a key test of confidence. If it cannot hold, there is a chance of a decline to the 1,550-1,555 range; if it holds, a short-term technical rebound is possible, with resistance at 1,585-1,590 points. On investment strategy, a Selective Buy approach is recommended, temporarily avoiding large-cap stocks that rose sharply earlier and focusing on stocks tied to domestic purchasing power. The recommended stock list includes CPALL, CPN, and CRC in the commerce group, BCH and PR9 in the medical group, and TRUE in the communications group.

Flooding in Bangkok and its surrounding provinces is weighing on the Thai stock market in the short term. Piriyaphon Kongwanich, a strategist at BLS Wealth Research of Bualuang Securities, estimates preliminary damage of roughly 10 billion to 30 billion baht and expects only a limited impact on gross domestic product and listed-company earnings. He flagged stocks that may draw interest, including HMPRO, GLOBAL, DOHOME and ILM, with the research team upgrading GLOBAL and DOHOME to speculative buy while keeping buy ratings on HMPRO and ILM. Thaweethak Taweethiratham, an executive director at Asia Plus Securities, assesses the overall impact as still limited and short-lived, with building materials benefiting from demand to repair homes, while retail, hospitals and food also have support. Sectors to watch for indirect effects include electronics, power plants, construction contractors, agriculture and commercial banks, while tourism, property and hire-purchase lending have already begun to feel negative effects. InnovestX Securities sees the pullback as a buying opportunity, noting that in past cases of short flooding lasting no more than seven days, the SET typically fell an average of about 0.6%, or 10 points, on the first day before turning positive within a week. It recommends a buy-on-dip strategy in domestic-play stocks through three themes: Recovery & Repair, comprising HMPRO, GLOBAL and DCC; Consumer Staples & Stockpiling, comprising CPALL, BJC and CRC; and Fast Recovery, comprising CENTEL, ERW, BDMS and BCH. The sector warranting added caution is insurance, given the risk that the loss ratio will rise from the damage incurred.

Analysts at Kasikorn Securities Public Company Limited have unveiled their Thai equity investment strategy for the fourth quarter of 2026, expecting Thailand's investment upcycle, driven by data centre investment and the PDP26 plan, to support growth momentum from the fourth quarter of 2026 through 2027. They expect power generation capacity serving data centres to rise to 5–7GW by 2030, and have raised their SET index target to 1,680 points, shifting the calculation base to an end-2027 target based on a 2027 SET EPS of 105 points and a long-term average PE of 16 times. For the fourth quarter of 2026, they highlight two themes: stocks benefiting from the new investment cycle, namely BBL, DELTA and BGRIM, and stocks with earnings recovery coupled with cost pass-through ability and room for prices to catch up, namely SCGP and CPALL. Meanwhile, analysts at InnovestX Securities have raised their 2026 SET target from 1,600 points to 1,700 points to reflect a stronger-than-expected second quarter of 2026, robust investment and economic stimulus measures, viewing 1,550 points as an attractive level for gradual accumulation, and selecting AMATA, CENTEL, CRC, KTB and PR9 as their top picks for the fourth quarter of 2026. Analysts at Trinity Securities see global stock markets in the fourth quarter of 2026 entering a tug-of-war between macro factors weighing on sentiment and micro factors still supporting the market. They estimate the SET index trading range at 1,500–1,700 points, with a base case of around 1,630 points calculated from a forward PE of 14.8 times multiplied by this year's EPS of 110 baht, and recommend a sector rotation and stock selection strategy across five favoured groups: livestock, BTG and TFG; tourism, AWC and ERW; retail with company-specific catalysts, CRC and COM7; agricultural products, STA and TVO; and beneficiaries of private-sector investment, AMATA and STECON.

TTBWEALTH Public Company Limited, or TTBWEALTH, assesses that this round of flooding will have a limited impact on the economy, as it is short-term and severe only in certain areas, unlike the 2011 event that flooded many areas and lasted several weeks to several months. In the short term, some stocks have gained both positive and negative sentiment. The groups benefiting positively include consumer goods retail, led by CPALL, CPAXT and CRC, as well as the home improvement and construction materials group, which is expected to benefit from demand for home repairs after the water recedes, namely HMPRO, GLOBAL, DOHOME, TOA and TASCO. Meanwhile, the groups affected negatively include insurance, such as TIPH, and tourism, namely AOT, ERW and CENTEL. In addition, several listed companies have updated the situation. DELTA reported that some areas were flooded but machinery and factories were not damaged, and operations returned to normal today after production lines were halted last Sunday. CENTEL had only some hotels affected, such as the Lat Phrao area where water entered the lobby, and the Pattaya zone, with a small number of customer cancellations. Its food business saw some sales decline from temporary store closures, but overall the impact is considered limited. MINT stated that most of its hotels are not in flood zones, its properties were not damaged, and it continues to operate normally. CPN confirmed that no shopping centers were closed, though it may be affected by a decline in customer traffic during the floods, and it expects no rental discounts to be offered.

Central Retail Corporation, or CRC, has signed a memorandum of cooperation with the National Payment Corporation of Vietnam, or NAPAS, and Vietnam Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Industry and Trade, or VietinBank, to promote cross-border payments between Thailand and Vietnam through the VietQR Global service. Sukunya Uewattanasakul, Senior Executive Vice President of Finance at CRC, said that international payments via QR Payment, both inbound and outbound, totalled more than 5.935 billion baht in 2025, up 129% compared with 2024, and reached 1.014 billion baht in January 2026. Under this cooperation, CRC will use its network of more than 3,000 branches covering 63 provinces across Thailand to promote the service to Vietnamese tourists, who can scan and pay directly through supported mobile banking apps or e-wallets. Thai tourists, in turn, can use mobile banking from Thai banks to scan and pay at stores within the Central Retail Vietnam network. Nguyen Hoang Long, Deputy Chief Executive Officer of NAPAS, said the partnership will expand the VietQR Global network to cover all consumer spending, especially in Thailand, a popular destination for Vietnamese travellers. Tran Cong Quynh Lan, Deputy Chief Executive Officer of VietinBank, said the bank will help design spending-stimulus activities and drive cashless transactions to become part of everyday life for consumers in both countries.

Piriyapol Kongwanich, Director of Investment Analysis for Wealth Management at Bualuang Securities, assesses that the Thai stock market remains on an uptrend from the fourth quarter of 2026 through the first half of 2027, with a chance of hitting a best-case target of 1,780 points before moving into a more range-bound phase. Three key tailwinds support this view: the global technology wave, an upcycle in global industry, and foreign capital inflows, all of which are supporting upward revisions to SET earnings forecasts. For the base case, the SET is projected to end 2027 at 1,710 points, based on SET EPS of 106 baht, down 4% year on year, and a target PER of 16.0 times. For fourth-quarter 2026 strategy, a barbell approach is recommended: the first core focuses on energy and petrochemicals, namely PTT and PTTGC, while the other core focuses on structural growth and stocks with earnings momentum, through the power group such as GULF, GPSC and GUNKUL, alongside retail stocks such as CRC and COM7, tourism stocks such as AOT, AWC and CENTEL, and hospital stocks such as BH and BDMS. For the first half of 2027, the recommendation is to gradually shift from Cyclical Winners toward greater Sector Rotation and Stock Selection, while in the second half of 2027 the focus should be on high-dividend stocks and companies with strong cash flows as the core of the portfolio.

Krungsri Securities Public Company Limited said its research team holds a neutral to slightly positive view on the retail sector under its coverage, assessing that the impact from branch closures and travel restrictions remains limited. If the situation does not drag on beyond one week, the impact on each company's sales will not exceed 1%. In the short term, operators of everyday consumer goods such as BJC, CPALL, CPAXT, CRC-Tops and GO Wholesale will benefit from stockpiling. CPALL has a convenience store network of about 6,700 branches in Bangkok and its vicinity, accounting for 41% of its total branches. Meanwhile, the home repair and decoration group, including CRC-Thai Watsadu, DOHOME, GLOBAL, HMPRO, ILM and MRDIYT, is expected to benefit more after the waters recede. HMPRO has 39 large-format branches in Bangkok and its vicinity, or 32% of all large-format branches in Thailand. Using the Hat Yai flooding of 21–28 November 2025 as a case study, the retail sector index rose 0.5% on the first day and 1.4% in the first week, with home-improvement stocks responding more strongly, led by HMPRO up 3% on the first day and 10% in the first week, GLOBAL up 3% and 9%, and DOHOME up 1% and 6%. The research team maintains a NEUTRAL weighting on the retail sector, selecting CRC, followed by MOSHI and MRDIYT, as its top picks in that order.

Analysts view the buzz around 'Nene Royal', or Ms. Rattikan Amloy from Phuket province, who won season 21 of America's Got Talent, as helping build global recognition and drawing tourists to Phuket and lifting Thailand's overall tourism during this year-end travel season. Mr. Puwadon Pusodngern, an investment strategist in the research department at Bualuang Securities Public Company Limited, told 'Than Hoon' that Phuket's tourist arrival statistics were already growing well and ranked among the top in the country before the Nene Royal phenomenon, so it further strengthens this area. For hotel and tourism stocks with a customer base in Phuket, AWC is recommended with a fundamental target price of 4 baht, supported by advance bookings that lift profit through the first quarter of 2026 and a Phuket hotel portfolio that suits high-purchasing-power customers. CENTEL has a fundamental target price of 49 baht, benefiting from a low profit base that is ready to recover, and ERW has a fundamental target price of 4.50 baht, gaining less value benefit than AWC and CENTEL because it relies mainly on tourist numbers. The strategy recommends gradual accumulation. Meanwhile, CRC has a fundamental target price of 34 baht, supported directly by higher tourist spending, in line with an analysis by Maybank Securities (Thailand) Public Company Limited, which holds a positive view on Thailand's tourism group, citing a recovering short-haul market, an upcycle in average room rates, a recovery in MICE spending led by China, and undemanding share prices. It prefers AWC over ERW and MINT given stronger earnings-per-share growth prospects.

Asia Plus Securities said the Cabinet meeting on 22 September 2026 approved an additional 1,000 baht for the Thai Chai Thai Plus scheme, adding 500 baht per month for October and November 2026 under the same conditions, with the government paying 60% and the public paying 40%. The purchase limit for state welfare cardholders was also raised to 1,000 baht per person per month in October 2026, from 300 baht per person per month previously. The research team holds a neutral view on the impact of the scheme's extension, since the monthly amount was cut to just 500 baht from 1,000 baht during June to September 2026, and retail companies have so far received very little direct benefit from the scheme because their stores do not meet the conditions for joining the programme. The businesses likely to see a small benefit are wholesale consumer goods, fresh food and some construction materials that shops buy in to resell, which supports BJC, CPAXT, CRC and DOHOME. CPALL sees a negative effect but a fairly limited one, while HMPRO and COM7 are seen as unaffected. For third-quarter 2026 earnings trends, the research team expects the sector's combined profit to fall quarter on quarter on seasonality but to grow well year on year on positive same-store sales growth, store expansion, better margins and lower interest expenses. The research team keeps its investment weighting for the sector at market weight and still picks CRC, COM7 and BJC as top picks, given third-quarter 2026 profit trends that should grow year on year more strongly than the sector.

The Research team at Bualuang Securities says the retail sector still has growth drivers from structural margin expansion, which is expected to be a key driver of profits through 2027, supported by procurement efficiency, inventory management, and an improving sales mix. Core profit in the third quarter of 2026 is expected to rise 9% year on year even as same-store sales hold steady, with margin expansion helping profit grow faster than sales on a continuing basis, and improved profitability also stems from more efficient expense management. The three standout stocks, CPALL, CRC, and CPN, stand out for both gross margin expansion and an improving ratio of selling and administrative expenses to sales. CPALL trades at a 2027 PER of just 12 times, while CRC benefits directly from tourist spending, and CPN will gain additional revenue from existing shopping malls from tourist spending. The Research team assigns an OVERWEIGHT rating to the retail sector, overweighting essential and discretionary retail and underweighting home improvement and decoration retail, given limited profit growth opportunities in 2027 after the temporary boost from margin expansion begins to fade.

Kasikorn Securities said in an analysis that the Cabinet's approval to extend the Thai Help Thai Plus program by another two months through November 2026, using roughly 43 billion baht remaining from the original program, could boost Thailand's economic growth prospects in 2026 through consumption, with gross domestic product possibly expanding about 2.2-2.3% versus the previous estimate of 2.0%. It therefore holds a mildly positive view on the Thai economy this year. On investment, Kasikorn Securities has a neutral to slightly negative view on retail stocks, since it had previously expected same-store sales to return to growth of about 3-4% after the original program ended in September 2026, but the two-month extension could pose a slight downside risk to same-store sales forecasts because those stores cannot join the program. Kasikorn Securities continues to favor Central Retail Corporation, or CRC, and Moshi Moshi Retail Corporation, or MOSHI, as they are expected to be only limitedly affected by the extension, along with fourth-quarter earnings momentum heading into the high season. The Thai Help Thai Plus (60/40) program is scheduled to run from October 1 to November 30, 2026, with the government co-paying 60% and the public paying 40%, with the government contributing no more than 200 baht per person per day and no more than 1,000 baht per person over the entire program.

September earnings estimates for the SET were revised up a further 0.7% month on month and 15.6% since the start of the year, driven mainly by sectors benefiting from higher energy and commodity prices. Petrochemicals led the way with a 6.2% month-on-month increase, as PTTGC rose 13% and IVL gained 7%. The energy sector rose 1.8%, led by refiners BCP up 26%, TOP up 10% and SPRC up 9%, which lifted the estimate for sector heavyweight PTT by a further 2%. The agricultural sector rose 2.1% on higher rubber prices, with STA's earnings estimate revised up 26%. However, the upward revisions are no longer as broad-based as before: fuel station operators PTG fell 26% and OR dropped 4%, while power plant groups SPP, BGRIM and GPSC slipped 2% and 1% respectively. In real estate, LH fell 1% and ORI dropped 13%, reflecting a growing divergence in earnings estimate trends between sectors and individual companies. Stocks still seeing upward revisions included AWC up 8%, CENTEL up 5%, BJC up 4%, CRC up 3%, AMATA up 8% and GUNKUL up 2%.

Bualuang Securities (BLS) has revised up its earnings estimate for the Thai stock market in September by 0.7% month-on-month and 15.6% since the start of the year. Piriyapon Kongwanich, Director of Investment Analysis for Wealth Management, said the main driver came from groups benefiting from energy and commodity prices amid prolonged wars. The petrochemical group was raised 6.2% month-on-month, led by PTTGC up 13% and IVL up 7%, while the energy group rose 1.8% on refineries BCP up 26%, TOP up 10% and SPRC up 9%, pushing PTT up another 2%. The agricultural group rose 2.1% on higher rubber prices, with STA raised 26%. On the other side, groups whose costs are linked to energy prices were revised down, led by PTG down 26% and OR down 4%, as well as SPP power plants such as BGRIM down 2% and GPSC down 1%. Meanwhile, businesses sensitive to the economy such as property, LH down 1% and ORI down 13%, also faced downgrades. This reflects a clearer divergence in earnings direction between industry groups and individual companies. The strategy therefore focuses on Earnings Leaders with strong profits. CRC is expected to post core profit growth of 25 to 30% year-on-year in the third quarter of 2026 from same-store sales growth of around 2% and revenue growth of about 4% year-on-year. CBG is supported by domestic energy drink sales growing 10% year-on-year. BH and BDMS are entering a seasonal profit recovery period. AOT, AWC and CENTEL benefit from tourism entering the high season, with AOT's winter slots from October 2026 to March 2027 up 4% year-on-year and AWC's RevPAR in July to August up 23% year-on-year, while CENTEL rose 5 to 6% year-on-year. AMATA is supported by data center demand adding clarity to profits, and GUNKUL benefits from a recovery in wind power plants along with investment opportunities in transmission systems.

Today's stocks to watch span several key developments. Bangchak, or BCP, is changing its top leadership for the first time in 12 years, after the board unanimously resolved to appoint Bundit Hansapaiboon as the new CEO, succeeding Chaiwat Kovavisarach, whose term has ended, effective January 1, 2027, after more than a decade at the helm. The stock fell nearly 3% on concerns over the leadership change. Meanwhile, BCPG clarified the case in which the Department of Special Investigation requested information on its investment in the Phetchaburi oil depot and jetty project, confirming it is ready to cooperate fully and that there has been no conclusion or ruling from the relevant agencies. Central announced a new investment plan in Vietnam totaling 3.5 billion US dollars, covering retail, real estate, and hotels, split into 1.5 billion dollars for CRC to expand roughly 50 stores over three to five years, and another 2 billion dollars for CPN, after seeing substantial room for economic and purchasing-power growth. EGCO is pushing into the United States, acquiring a large 615-megawatt natural gas power plant in central New York under a tolling agreement that locks in long-term cash flow and captures electricity demand from AI and data centers. SPALI declared that Thai real estate has passed its bottom, and it will launch 19 new projects worth a combined 22.66 billion baht in the second half, with brokers saying profits have reached a turning point, raising this year's profit forecast by 10%, highlighting a 7.7% dividend yield, and setting a buy rating with a 21 baht target price.

TTB Wealth, the securities arm of TTB Bank, said the Ministry of Finance has confirmed a two-month extension of the Thai Chuay Thai Plus scheme, covering October through November, to help ease the cost of living amid persistently high energy prices. The extension will use the remaining budget, and the subsidy conditions remain unchanged at the 60/40 split. The proposal is set to go before the Cabinet meeting on September 22. TTB Wealth views this positively for the food retail sector, namely CRC, which operates the GO Wholesale cash-and-carry business, and CPN, which benefits from higher shopper traffic at its malls, as well as CBG. It also sees gains for the telecommunications sector from higher top-up revenue, namely ADVANC and TRUE.

Chow Energy Public Company Limited, or CHOW Energy, has announced a continued partnership with Central and Robinson department stores for a fifth consecutive year to expand its Solar Rooftop project. Cristobal Chin, Chief Executive Officer of CHOW Energy, and Nattheera Boonsri, Chief Executive Officer of Central Retail Department Store, posed for a photo to mark the collaboration in developing the Solar Rooftop project, which currently covers Central and Robinson department stores with total installed capacity of more than 7 megawatts. This partnership reflects a shared commitment to driving sustainable business and supporting the organizations' ESG goals.

InnovestX Securities Company Limited expects the Thai stock market to remain volatile and has unveiled four standout stock themes to navigate the SET Index falling below 1,600 points. It estimates support at 1,580 and 1,575 points, with resistance at 1,605 and 1,610 points, and recommends a Selective Buy strategy focused on accumulating shares as prices decline. The first theme covers defensive stocks and high-dividend stocks expected to deliver consistent dividend yields above 5% per year, namely BBL, KTB, HMPRO, AP, SCCC and PTT. The second theme covers stocks benefiting from global economic factors and high bond yields. In the energy group it picks PTTEP, BCP, TOP and SPRC, while in shipping it selects PSL and TTA. High bond yields are a positive factor for banks, namely KTB, BBL and KBANK, as well as life insurers BLA and TLI, after the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds rose to 5% for the first time in nearly three years. The third theme covers stocks benefiting from government policy, namely GULF, GUNKUL, AMATA and WHA, on progress with the draft PDP2026 plan and policies supporting rooftop solar, while STECON, CK and SCCC fall in the construction and construction materials group. As for economic stimulus measures, CPALL, CPAXT and BJC are seen benefiting from the extension of the Thai Chai Thai Plus program, while CPALL, CRC, ERW, CENTEL and AOT are supported by the Thai Tiew Thai Plus program. DELTA, HANA and KCE fall under the theme of promoting investment in data centers and artificial intelligence. The final theme covers laggard stocks, namely AP, PR9, SAWAD, HMPRO, BDMS, TU, BCH, MTC and TIDLOR, whose second-half 2026 earnings are expected to grow both year on year and compared with the first half of the year.

Go Wholesale, a food-ingredient wholesale center under Central Food Wholesale Co., Ltd. in the Central Retail group, has launched Web Ordering, a purchasing channel via the website gowholesale.store, under the concept "Order on any screen, keep your business moving anywhere," bringing AI to strengthen its back-end systems and help operators prepare product lists, review, approve, and place repeat orders, connecting offline to online seamlessly. Ricardo Barotto, Chief Executive Officer of Central Food Wholesale, said the development of this website will serve as a key tool for connecting every touch point seamlessly, becoming a practical Digital Ordering Ecosystem. The new system comprises AI-Powered Personalization, which analyzes purchasing behavior across all channels, both online and at branches; Smarter Reordering for products that need to be purchased regularly; and an Ecosystem of Benefits, or "5-fold value," which links special-priced products and Own Brand items such as A-Choice, SuperSave, and ProSave, extra discount coupons, monthly purchase accumulation through GO BONUS, joint point accumulation with The 1, and privileges with cashback from leading partner credit cards. Go Wholesale expects the development of the web ordering channel to help drive the number of online users to grow by leaps and bounds, more than doubling within 2027.

Dao Securities (Thailand) expects the SET index to move in a range of 1,585 to 1,630 points this week, with the market watching the FOMC meeting as the key highlight after inflation figures came in close to the previous month. Although Core CPI fell slightly, Fed officials' insistence that they will keep a close watch on inflation numbers has raised market expectations that the Fed will hike its policy rate at this meeting to as high as 87%. Meanwhile, the Iran war remains protracted with no sign of an easy end, supporting oil prices staying elevated for a long time, and buying from the energy sector is expected to follow the upward trend in oil prices. For today's SET range, support is at 1,595-1,600 points and resistance at 1,610-1,615 points. Today's standout stocks are PTTEP, which continues to enjoy positive sentiment from oil prices, with Brent up about 3% in this morning's opening after Saudi Arabia ordered the shutdown of the East-West Pipeline due to a drone attack, with a "buy" recommendation and a target price of 180.00 baht, and CRC, whose same-store sales growth in July-August 2026 remained a solid positive 2%, led by Food at +5% and Fashion at +2%, helping offset Hardline which was still -3%, with a "buy" recommendation and a target price of 33.00 baht. Normal profit for 2026E/27E is expected at 9.4 billion and 9.9 billion baht, up 16% and 6% respectively.

DBS Vickers has a positive view on CRC's earnings outlook for 2H26E and 2027E, expecting profit to recover continuously after bottoming out in 2025. Same-store sales growth in 3Q26E from July to August 2026 remains positive at around +2%, led by the Food and Fashion groups, with total Food SSSG growing about +5% and total Fashion SSSG up around +2%, supported by new brands and the Beauty concept, helping offset total Hardline SSSG which remains negative at around -3%. GPM in 2H26E is expected to continue expanding year on year but at a slower pace than in 1H26, driven by a higher share of high-margin products and Private Brand in the Fashion and Hardline groups, without the boost from low product costs during the price war seen in 1H26. The research team maintains its normal profit estimates for 2026E and 2027E at 9.4 billion baht and 9.9 billion baht, representing growth of +16% and +6% respectively, and keeps its Buy recommendation with a target price of 33.00 baht, based on a 2026E PER of 21.0x, which is 0.5 standard deviations below the five-year average. It sees positive momentum continuing into 2027E from accelerating sales at Central Phaholyothin and new store openings, as well as cost savings and MaxValu's likely turnaround to positive EBIT.

Central Retail Corporation, or CRC, has announced the success of its cumulative investment in Vietnam over more than 15 years, worth over 49 billion baht, rising to become one of the largest foreign retail leaders in Vietnam. Chief Executive Officer Sutthithat Chirathivat said that CRC currently has a network of more than 300 shopping centres and stores in Vietnam, spread across 26 provinces, with total retail space of over 1.3 million square metres, serving an average of about 500,000 customers per day and employing approximately 13,000 staff, of whom as many as 99.5% are local Vietnamese employees. The Vietnam business is divided into three main groups: the food group, which is the core, comprising GO! Hypermarket, Tops Market, mini go! and Lan Chi Mart; the non-food group; and the property group, which includes GO! Mall shopping centres. Stephan Coum, Chief Executive Officer of Central Retail Food, said the food group aims to become the Pantry of Vietnam. In 2026 the company opened a mini go! branch in Cu Chi in January and opened a GO! Hypermarket in Dan Phuong last August, and it has set a target of opening 10 to 12 more GO! Hypermarkets and expanding mini go! Supermarket by another 23 to 25 branches by 2028, a total of 37 outlets. This growth is in line with Vietnam's economy, whose GDP expanded 8.18% in the first half of 2026 and 8.39% in the second quarter, while sales in the retail and consumer services category grew 12.9%. Meanwhile, the The 1 Vietnam loyalty programme has expanded its membership base to more than 7.4 million people in less than one year, and more than 90% of the goods sold in CRC Vietnam's stores are domestically produced, working with more than 2,000 local suppliers.

Asia Plus Securities said the Ministry of Finance is preparing to open registration for household Solar Rooftop installation subsidies in mid-October 2026, initially for 1 million entitlements with a total budget of 50 billion baht, or 50,000 baht per household, and is considering raising this to 1.5 million entitlements, with a target of completing disbursements by the end of 2027. The government will pay out only once the system is connected to the grid, and a 5-kilowatt system is expected to generate about 1,000 baht per month from selling power back to EGAT over 25 to 30 years. Government Savings Bank, GH Bank and BAAC will extend loans to low-income participants, who will use the electricity sale proceeds to repay the bank debt first. Meanwhile, the power utilities are preparing to invest in replacing meters and developing Smart Grid and Battery Storage systems. The government is also considering cutting customs duties on components that cannot yet be produced domestically and using BOI measures to support domestic solar production. The research team views this as positive for the renewable energy group, especially operators with Solar Rooftop and EPC businesses such as GUNKUL, SOLAR and SPCG, and as positive sentiment for CRC, COM7, DOHOME and HMPRO. Considering the scale of the programme, the government is targeting 1 million households with an average installed size of 5 kW per household, implying total installed capacity of 5,000 MW, which is higher than the existing 500 MW public Solar Rooftop power purchase programme. It sees GUNKUL as the standout beneficiary thanks to its fully integrated business chain and names it the Top Pick for news-driven trading. However, GUNKUL's core profit still comes from its renewable power generation business and large EPC projects, making this scheme an opportunity to supplement growth rather than a main profit driver.

Yuanta Securities (Thailand) expects that in July and August 2026, the SSSG of retail stocks under its coverage will come in at around -1% to +1% year on year, flat to improved compared with an average of -0.9% year on year in the second quarter of 2026, and better than -3.3% year on year in the third quarter of 2025. For the consumer staples group, comprising CPALL, CPAXT, BJC and CRC, average SSSG is expected at -0.5% year on year, an improvement from -1.0% year on year in the second quarter of 2026 and -1.8% year on year in the third quarter of 2025, led by BJC, whose SSSG in August 2026 turned positive for the first time in 2026. CPALL is expected at +1% to +3% year on year and CRC at +1% to +3% year on year, while CPAXT remains weak, with Makro expected to contract 1% to 2% year on year and Lotus expected to contract 3% to 5% year on year. For the home improvement group, comprising GLOBAL, DOHOME and HMPRO, average SSSG is expected at -0.8% year on year, flat from -0.7% year on year in the second quarter of 2026 but better than -5.6% year on year in the third quarter of 2025. DOHOME improved to +5% to +7% year on year on a low base, while GLOBAL and HMPRO remain weak at -5% to -7% year on year and -1% to -3% year on year respectively. The research team expects the retail group's normal profit in the third quarter of 2026 to fall quarter on quarter on seasonal factors, but still grow year on year, supported by revenue growth in line with SSSG trends and planned branch expansion, with gross margins expected to improve year on year on still-high product prices. The year-to-date return of SETCOMMERCE stands at +11%, a significant laggard versus the SET Index at +29%, and retail stocks trade at an average 2026 PER of only 15.1 times, close to -1.4 standard deviations of the five-year historical average. The research team therefore maintains its Overweight investment weighting and picks BJC as Top Pick with a target price of 18.00 baht, and is in the process of reviewing upward its earnings forecasts and target price, expected at around plus or minus 19 baht, on the strong SSSG recovery in August 2026, with the stock trading at a 2026 PER of only 13.7 times, below -2 standard deviations of the five-year historical average. It also picks CPALL with a target price of 63.00 baht on the continued SSSG recovery trend and still-cheap valuation, trading at a 2026 PER of only 13.5 times, equivalent to -2 standard deviations of the five-year historical average.

Kasikorn Securities (KS) assesses that same-store sales growth (SSSG) for the retail sector in August 2026 is likely to expand slightly at 0-1%, supported by a low base in the previous year. Meanwhile, Asia Plus Securities (ASPS) views that SSSG will mostly turn slightly positive, led by BJC, CPALL, CRC, and DOHOME, but CPAXT and HMPRO remain negative due to not participating in the "Thai Helps Thai Plus" project. KS expects the average SSSG for the sector in July-August to turn positive at approximately 0.5%, from a negative 0.6% in Q2 2026, and selects CPALL, MOSHI, and CRC as top picks. ASPS, on the other hand, selects CRC, COM7, and BJC. The research side maintains a "Neutral" view on the commerce sector, and ASPS maintains an "Equal-weight" investment rating on the commerce sector, expecting sector profits in 2026 to grow 12% year-on-year.

Asia Plus Securities assesses retail stocks, expecting that the SSSG in August 2026 for most companies will trend slightly positive, including BJC, CPALL, CRC, and DOHOME, due to a low base in the previous year and product price adjustments. Meanwhile, CPAXT and HMPRO are expected to remain negative due to fragile purchasing power and the impact of not participating in the Thai Helps Thai Plus project. For the third quarter of 2026, the group's SSSG is expected to be slightly positive, with DOHOME likely to grow the most at around 4-5%, while HMPRO and CPAXT are likely to decline the most. The group's total profit is expected to decrease QoQ but grow well YoY, driven by positive SSSG, store expansion, and improved margins. The research department maintains a market-weight rating and selects CRC, COM7, and BJC as top picks due to their outstanding third-quarter profit trends.

The mobile Cabinet meeting in Songkhla Province, scheduled for August 31 to September 1, 2026, is set to consider several large-scale projects that could generate investment in the South for years to come, especially the second phase of the Southern dual-track railway with a total budget of approximately 104.466 billion baht, covering three routes with a combined distance of 534 kilometers: Chumphon–Surat Thani (30.423 billion baht), Surat Thani–Hat Yai Junction–Songkhla (66.271 billion baht), and Hat Yai Junction–Padang Besar (7.773 billion baht). If approved, this will connect the rail network from the lower central region to the Malaysian border, reduce logistics costs, and enhance long-term economic potential. Stocks expected to benefit include construction contractors such as CK, STECON, ITD, UNIQ, and NWR, as well as construction material companies like SCC, SCCC, and TASCO. Additionally, there are proposals from five southern provinces totaling 199 projects with an initial budget of over 57 billion baht, which could support water management and utility stocks such as FLE, UBA, and WIIK, as well as tourism and retail groups like AOT, AAV, CENTEL, ERW, SHR, CPALL, and CRC. However, most benefits are medium to long term and depend on actual approvals and bidding. Furthermore, there are projects for the Songkhla Lake Bridge and the Lanta Island Bridge with a combined budget of approximately 6.7 billion baht, expected to be completed by 2029, but the main contractor is a foreign company, CHEC Construction (M) Sdn Bhd, so Thai stocks may only get subcontracting work or domestic material procurement. Investors should monitor approval resolutions, funding sources, contract divisions, and actual work secured by each company, as these are key factors determining the impact on profits.

Kasikorn Securities has raised its profit forecast for Central Retail Corporation (CRC) by 13.5% for 2026 to 9.1 billion baht, maintaining a "Buy" recommendation with a target price of 33.00 baht. This follows second-quarter 2026 normalized profit of 1.9 billion baht, up 97% year-on-year but down 33% quarter-on-quarter, exceeding the research house's estimate by 36%, supported by a gross margin that was 1.3 percentage points higher than forecast. Management expects margins to continue expanding by 60-70 basis points in 2026, alongside sales growth of 2-3%, and has reduced its capital expenditure target to 11-12 billion baht from 13-15 billion baht previously, due to delayed investments in Thailand and project delays in Vietnam.

The National Innovation Agency (NIA) hosted the GLOBAL STARTUP HUB DEMO DAY 2026, bringing together 30 selected startups in the fields of AI, IoT, Semiconductor, EV & Mobility, Energy Tech, and Climate Tech & Sustainability to present results after business matching with over 60 large corporations. The goal is to drive them toward Proof of Concept (PoC) testing with leading organizations such as Thailand Post, Central Retail, PTT, Thai Oil, and AIS, aiming to reduce industrial risks and create shortcuts to sales and commercial investment. Dr. Krishpaka Boonfueng, Director of NIA, stated that this project is a mechanism under the Groom – Grant – Growth – Global approach to enhance the business readiness and international market readiness of Thai startups. The PoC process will allow startups to validate their technology against real-world challenges and establish reference cases for future market expansion.