Carabao Group Public Company Limited

Three securities firms have shared their outlooks for the Thai stock market in the final stretch of the year, along with their SET index targets and top stock picks for investment in the fourth quarter of 2026. Each has a different view and set of recommendations based on fundamentals and market trends. InnovestX has set a SET index target of 1,715 points for 2027 and named its top picks for Q4/2026: AMATA, CENTEL, CRC, KTB and PR9. ASPS estimates a SET index target of 1,720 points for 2026 and selected CPN, CBG, THAI, BDMS, BBL, COM7, STECON and GUNKUL as its top picks. KSS expects the SET index to trade in a target range of 1,680 to 1,750 points in 2026 and highlights TOP, PTTGC, SCC, IVL, GULF, DELTA and KBANK as its top picks.

Asia Plus Securities estimates the SET index target at the end of 2026 at 1,720 points, based on an assumption of 2026 earnings per share of 95 baht per share. It notes that the overall investment picture in the fourth quarter faces the risk of accelerating inflation from the Middle East war that has dragged on for more than 7 months, which pressured the average September 2026 WTI crude oil price to 95.6 dollars per barrel, up 50% compared with the previous year. Meanwhile, the United States is collecting import tariffs from trading partners at an effective rate as high as 12.5% to 19%, up from the previous 2% to 2.5%, and investment in data centers and AI infrastructure has pushed prices of software and computer equipment up 25.4% compared with the previous year, hitting a new high. On the Thai economy, the ratio of public debt to GDP stands at 67.45%, close to the fiscal discipline ceiling of 70%, while the impact of flooding is estimated at approximately 5 billion to 10 billion baht, which could drag third-quarter GDP growth down to 2.2% to 2.5%. The research department has adjusted its strategy from index selection to selective stock selection, focusing on stocks that benefit from the high season and the low base effect, namely CPN, CBG, THAI, BDMS, BBL, COM7, STECON, and GUNKUL, and recommends holding cash at around 10% to 15% of the portfolio.

The research division of Krungsri Securities issued an analysis expressing a positive view on beverage stocks, estimating group profit in 2026 at 8.98 billion baht, up 1%, and in 2027 at 9.7 billion baht, up 8%. It selected ICHI as the group's top pick with a target price of 18.10 baht and an expected dividend yield of 7%. The main supporting factor comes from a trend of earlier and more severe hot weather, with the research house assessing that El Niño has a chance of intensifying to Godzilla El Niño levels between October 2026 and April 2027, after Pacific Ocean temperatures began exceeding 2 degrees Celsius, a level considered Super El Niño. On costs, the research division stated that oil-linked and packaging costs account for roughly 7-35% of total costs. If oil prices rise by 5%, it would affect each company's profit by about 1.4-6.2%. Meanwhile, sugar costs account for only 2-6% of total costs, and every 5% increase in sugar prices would affect group profit by only about 0.7-1.2%. For third-quarter 2026 profit, the research division expects about 2.2 billion baht, up 11% from a year earlier but down 9% from the previous quarter, with CBG showing a standout trend, while ICHI is expected to post lower profit from a high base a year earlier. In 2027, ICHI is expected to be the strongest performer with profit rising 17%, driven by revenue gains from El Niño, alkaline water and green tea products, as well as lower costs and better operating leverage.

Finansia Syrus Securities Public Company Limited, or FSS, said in an analysis that it recommends "buy" on Carabao Group Public Company Limited, or CBG, with a 2027 target price of 74 baht, citing a clearly recovering earnings outlook in the second half of 2026. FSS expects CBG's revenue momentum in the third and fourth quarters of 2026 to have a chance of hitting a new record high, supported by expansion of its contract manufacturing, or OEM, business, such as the Loveza product, which will help lift capacity utilisation and support margins. For third-quarter 2026 results, CBG is expected to post net profit of about 792 million baht, up 8% from the previous quarter and 29% from the same period a year earlier, marking its first return to year-on-year growth in five quarters. For the full year, FSS estimates 2026 net profit at 2.93 billion baht, up 3% from a year earlier, before rising to 3.37 billion baht in 2027, or 15% growth from the prior year. In addition, in the short term, if crude oil prices continue to fall, that would be a positive factor for CBG's costs and help support investment sentiment in the stock further. On the technical front, FSS sets support at 54 baht and resistance at 56.25 baht and 58-59 baht.

Foreign investors returned to buying Thai stocks, with net purchases of 52.68226 billion baht from the start of the year through September 22, comprising 6.60989403 trillion baht in buys and 6.55721177 trillion baht in sells. In September alone, net buying reached 1.31328 billion baht, from 626.56138 billion baht in buys and 625.24810 billion baht in sells, marking the highest foreign buying in two months and making the Thai stock market the most sought-after in ASEAN. The supporting factor came from Meta's launch of a new AI model with higher processing efficiency, offered free of charge, which the market expects will extend its advertising business and accelerate demand for AI CAPEX, benefiting Thai component stocks, especially DELTA and HANA. Meanwhile, Infra Tech stocks drew support from the NBTC's proposal for a data center board to set new investment criteria, including requiring operators to have power purchase agreements and water supply certificates, to use domestic materials no less than 50%, and to add sustainability requirements. This is expected to boost industrial estate stocks such as AMATA and WHA, power stocks such as GULF, BGRIM and GUNKUL, bank stocks such as KBANK, KTB, KKP and BBL, as well as contractor stocks such as STECON, PYLON and INSET. At the same time, the Cabinet meeting approved extending the Thai Help Thai Plus 40/60 Phase 2 project by another 2 months, from October 1 to November 30, 2026, with a total budget of 42.69 billion baht, and approved an additional 700 baht per person in product purchase credit for state welfare cardholders for October only, bringing the total injection to 1,000 baht per person. This measure is expected to benefit retail stocks such as CPAXT, BJC and CPALL, as well as consumer goods stocks such as CBG and OSP, in a second-round effect.

The research team at Asia Plus Securities said the beverage stocks expected to benefit most from the cabinet's extension of the Thai Chai Thai Plus Phase 2 measure, which adds another 1,000 baht per person over two months from October to November 2026, is CBG, which derives about 70% of revenue from traditional domestic retail channels. Next come OSP and ICHI, with revenue shares of about 40%. SAPPE and COCOCO are likely to see fairly limited gains because most of their revenue comes from overseas markets. For the beverage group's third-quarter 2026 results, the team initially expects nothing exciting, as this is the low season for domestic sales due to the rainy season, while export revenue is lackluster because of Myanmar's import regulation problems and coconut water sales in the Chinese market continue to contract. However, the research team expects the group's profit to grow both quarter on quarter and year on year in the fourth quarter of 2026, driven by domestic sales that should accelerate on seasonal factors and government economic stimulus measures. The research team maintains an equal-weight investment rating on the beverage group, based on normal profit growth of 11% year on year for both 2026 and 2027, and picks CBG and ICHI as top stocks because they are expected to benefit most from the Thai Chai Thai Plus measure and are seen posting stronger profit momentum than the group in the second half of this year. CBG is supported by continued growth in domestic energy drink sales, rapid expansion of revenue from contract manufacturing of the LoveZa beverage brand, and revenue from helping distribute alcoholic beverages for others, which tends to be high during the year-end festival season. ICHI will be supported by additional production capacity from its Honchuan partner coming on stream in the fourth quarter of 2026, along with continued strong growth in alkaline water sales.

The Ministry of Finance is preparing to submit the Thai Help Thai Plus scheme to the Cabinet meeting on September 22, 2026, seeking approval for more than 30 million existing eligible recipients. The scheme will use the remaining budget from the 400-billion-baht emergency loan decree for the energy crisis, which still has roughly 40,000 to 50,000 million baht left. The measure grants 1,000 baht for two months under the same 60-to-40 ratio as before, while state welfare cardholders will receive a top-up of 700 baht, combined with the normal 300 baht entitlement, totaling 1,000 baht per month. The benefits can be used from October 1, 2026 to November 30, 2026. An analysis by DBS Vickers assesses the measure as slightly positive, with the Thai Help Thai Plus amount close to the previous estimate of 1,000 baht per two months, while the state welfare card top-up is more generous than the earlier expectation of 700 baht but for only one month. It views the stocks benefiting most in terms of domestic revenue proportion as NEO with a target of 31.00 baht, CBG with a target of 67.00 baht, and OSP with a target of 20.00 baht. For the food and beverage group benefiting from higher domestic consumption, these include CBG, with domestic branded own revenue at 35% of total revenue; OSP, with domestic beverage revenue at 66% of total revenue; SAPPE, with domestic revenue at 27% of total revenue; and SNNP, with domestic revenue at 79% of total revenue, split into 65% modern trade and 35% traditional trade. For the consumer goods group, these include NEO, with domestic revenue at 92% of total revenue, and OSP, with domestic personal care revenue at approximately 12% of total revenue.

Bualuang Securities (BLS) has revised up its earnings estimate for the Thai stock market in September by 0.7% month-on-month and 15.6% since the start of the year. Piriyapon Kongwanich, Director of Investment Analysis for Wealth Management, said the main driver came from groups benefiting from energy and commodity prices amid prolonged wars. The petrochemical group was raised 6.2% month-on-month, led by PTTGC up 13% and IVL up 7%, while the energy group rose 1.8% on refineries BCP up 26%, TOP up 10% and SPRC up 9%, pushing PTT up another 2%. The agricultural group rose 2.1% on higher rubber prices, with STA raised 26%. On the other side, groups whose costs are linked to energy prices were revised down, led by PTG down 26% and OR down 4%, as well as SPP power plants such as BGRIM down 2% and GPSC down 1%. Meanwhile, businesses sensitive to the economy such as property, LH down 1% and ORI down 13%, also faced downgrades. This reflects a clearer divergence in earnings direction between industry groups and individual companies. The strategy therefore focuses on Earnings Leaders with strong profits. CRC is expected to post core profit growth of 25 to 30% year-on-year in the third quarter of 2026 from same-store sales growth of around 2% and revenue growth of about 4% year-on-year. CBG is supported by domestic energy drink sales growing 10% year-on-year. BH and BDMS are entering a seasonal profit recovery period. AOT, AWC and CENTEL benefit from tourism entering the high season, with AOT's winter slots from October 2026 to March 2027 up 4% year-on-year and AWC's RevPAR in July to August up 23% year-on-year, while CENTEL rose 5 to 6% year-on-year. AMATA is supported by data center demand adding clarity to profits, and GUNKUL benefits from a recovery in wind power plants along with investment opportunities in transmission systems.

KGI Securities has raised its investment rating on Thailand's beverage sector to Outperform from Neutral, selecting CBG as its sole top pick for 4Q26, followed by OSP and ICHI. The research team views the recent share price decline as an opportunity to re-accumulate, as pressure from higher raw material costs following escalating US-Iran tensions and the low season in 3Q26F are only short-term factors that will not affect medium-term margins. The research team expects combined 2H26F earnings for the sector to grow both HoH and YoY, led by CBG, while 3Q26F core earnings should still grow YoY on revenue growth and good cost control at OSP and ICHI. Demand for Thai beverages remains mixed, with energy drinks growing 2.6% YoY in the year to June 2026 versus +1.8% in March, while ready-to-drink tea contracted 2% versus -6%, and the research team expects both categories to continue contracting YoY in 3Q26F but at a slower rate. After 3Q26F, intensifying El Niño conditions could be a catalyst driving demand significantly through 1H27F. Following the release of 2Q26 results, the market has revised up earnings for both CBG and OSP, bringing the sector's new 2026-27F earnings to -2%/+1% YTD from -3%/-3% previously, while ICHI's estimates remain unchanged. The research team's 2026F-27F core earnings reflect growth of 3%/9% YoY and are now close to consensus.

The government plans to extend the Thai Chai Thai Plus scheme and the new phase of the state welfare card by another two months, to November-December 2026, from an original end date of 30 September 2026, and will submit the plan to the Cabinet for consideration on 22 September. This renewal of Thai Chai Thai Plus will use the first 200 billion baht allocated and reserved for the state welfare scheme and the Thai Chai Thai Plus project, with no budget shifted from other areas, and the co-payment ratio will remain at 60:40 through the Paotang application. The state welfare card will continue to receive 100% assistance as before. The government will announce the list of eligible recipients on 30 September 2026, with benefits usable from 1 October 2026 onward. Currently, 26 million people receive Thai Chai Thai Plus benefits, 9.5 million qualify for the state welfare scheme, and about 5 million are awaiting a review of their eligibility, bringing the total number hoping for benefits to 40 million. Dao Securities (Thailand) said it has a more positive view of the measures because the timeline is clearer, and sees the stocks benefiting most, based on their share of domestic revenue, as NEO with a target price of 31.00 baht, CBG with a target of 67.00 baht, and OSP with a target of 20.00 baht.

The Ministry of Finance is preparing to extend the Thai Help Thai Plus Phase 2 programme by another two months, covering October through November 2026, using the same 60:40 formula. Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Ekniti Nitithanprapas said the extension will use remaining budget and will not divert funds from the second tranche earmarked for the energy transition, and that it will be submitted to the Cabinet meeting on 22 September 2026. Analysts at Dao Securities Thailand turned more positive after the timeline became clearer, with the stocks benefiting most from domestic revenue exposure being NEO, rated Buy with a target price of 31 baht, CBG, rated Buy with a target price of 67 baht, and OSP, rated Buy with a target price of 20 baht. Meanwhile, Finansia Syrus Securities estimates that the Phase 2 measure will inject an additional 3.5 to 7.1 billion baht into the system in the fourth quarter of 2026, helping consumption and same-store sales continue to recover. It expects third-quarter 2026 profits for DOHOME and COM7 to grow by around 35 to 45 percent year on year, and keeps its weighting on the commerce sector at NEUTRAL, selecting BJC and COM7 as its top picks.

Kiatnakin Phatra Securities, or KKPS, has maintained its Buy rating on Carabao Group, or CBG, and kept its target price at 70 baht, viewing the branch expansion of CJ MORE under CJ Express Group, a CBG affiliate, as a long-term positive that will add distribution channels and support sales growth. Satien Satiantamma, Chief Executive Officer of CJ Express Group, said CJ MORE targets sales of 80 billion baht in 2026 and 100 billion baht in 2027, with plans to expand from about 2,100 branches currently to 2,500 branches by 2027 and to 5,000 branches by 2029. It expects to list on the stock exchange through an initial public offering, or IPO, in 2029. The research team estimates that, if other factors remain unchanged and CJ meets its sales target of 100 billion baht while expanding to 3,200 branches, CBG's domestic energy drink sales would reach about 9.4 billion baht, 3.8% above its previous estimate, and CBG's profit in 2027 is expected to set a new record high, surpassing its previous peak of 3.5 billion baht in 2020. CBG's energy drinks account for about 2.5% of sales within CJ, while CBG's domestic energy drink sales grew continuously from 2023 to 2025, with sales through CJ stores posting average annual growth of 31% and sales through traditional trade channels growing an average of 10%.

TTB Wealth, the securities arm of TTB Bank, said the Ministry of Finance has confirmed a two-month extension of the Thai Chuay Thai Plus scheme, covering October through November, to help ease the cost of living amid persistently high energy prices. The extension will use the remaining budget, and the subsidy conditions remain unchanged at the 60/40 split. The proposal is set to go before the Cabinet meeting on September 22. TTB Wealth views this positively for the food retail sector, namely CRC, which operates the GO Wholesale cash-and-carry business, and CPN, which benefits from higher shopper traffic at its malls, as well as CBG. It also sees gains for the telecommunications sector from higher top-up revenue, namely ADVANC and TRUE.

Asia Plus Securities, or ASPS, recommends a Selective Buy strategy focusing on 4 industry groups: beverages and commerce, which benefit from lower oil costs and the Thai Chai Thai Plus measures; construction and construction materials, which gain from the passage of the annual budget expenditure act for 2570; media and advertising, which are set to receive money from the Asian Games sporting event late in the year; and international technology and cybersecurity, which benefit from the expansion of AI infrastructure. It also selects 5 standout stocks for speculation: NVDA80, CRWD80, Carabao Group Public Company Limited, or CBG, CH. Karnchang Public Company Limited, or CK, and Plan B Media Public Company Limited, or PLANB. CK is supported by the approval of the 2570 budget and expectations of growing backlog, while PLANB is entering the high season for late-year advertising spending, with short-term speculation from sending two representatives to sit as directors at Com Seven Public Company Limited, or COM7. ASPS assesses that global capital markets and the Thai stock market are likely to face volatility from the strict monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve. Most recently, the FOMC committee resolved to raise interest rates by 0.25% to a range of 3.75%-4.00%, and signaled through the Dot Plot a stricter path than the market expected. Sixteen committee members indicated they may raise rates at least one more time this year, and another four members saw a 0.50% increase before holding rates steady throughout 2570, then gradually cutting only once a year to a level of 3.6% in 2572.

Mr. Sathien Sathienthamma, Chief Executive Officer of Carabao Group Public Company Limited, or CBG, revealed that the company aims to take its CJ MORE business public within 2029, and is currently still considering whether to list on the Thai stock exchange or a foreign one, after several overseas exchanges approached it, including Hong Kong's Hang Seng exchange, the Singapore Exchange, and the NASDAQ in the United States. For CJ MORE's operating direction in 2026, the company has set a sales target of 80 billion baht, after generating 50 to 60 billion baht in sales over the past eight months, and it is maintaining its goal of reaching 100 billion baht in sales by 2027. It will add another 700 branches, up from 500 branches added this year. By the end of this year, CJ MORE is expected to have a total of 2,500 branches nationwide, up from 2,100 at present. The company is currently adjusting its product model, especially in the fresh and soft-serve categories, which previously involved a partnership with a Chinese partner but was found to have limitations in quality and standard control, so it has switched to working with a leading manufacturer and product developer from Japan to jointly develop products and improve quality further. In addition, CJ MORE has launched the "CJ STAR, Good Products with Stars" project, aiming to create opportunities for good products from communities across the country and small operators through a network of more than 2,100 CJ MORE stores covering more than 60 provinces, starting with a network of more than 538 CJ MORE stores in the central, eastern, and western regions. At present, 14 operators have received stars, covering 21 product items, which will be sold in the prime "CJ STAR, Good Products with Stars" area in CJ MORE stores.

The Ministry of Finance is considering extending the "Thai Chuay Thai Plus" program, a 60/40 co-payment measure, by roughly one to two months from its original end date of September 30, 2026. The co-payment formula may be adjusted from 60/40 to 50/50 or to the "Khon La Khrueng" half-half format if the extension goes ahead. The program is drawing close attention amid the protracted war between the United States and Iran in the Middle East, which has pushed crude oil prices above 100 dollars per barrel, pressuring travel costs, transport costs, and the public's cost of living. From a stock market perspective, the stock expected to benefit most is CPAXT, which not only gains directly from consumers but is also supported by the mom-and-pop shops and small retailers joining the program, who must buy stock from Makro. Previously, Krungsri Securities viewed CPAXT as one of the stocks benefiting from the measure and gave it a target price of 19 baht. BJC, or Berli Jucker, holds both the Big C retail business and a consumer goods business. CPALL benefits directly from higher consumption through its nationwide 7-Eleven network. Globlex Securities also previously picked CPALL and CPAXT as stocks benefiting from government measures and the stimulus of purchasing power, while consumer goods names such as CBG and OSP stand to gain in a "second round" manner.

Yuanta Securities has raised its fair value for CBG to 81.00 baht, maintaining a "Buy" recommendation and selecting it as a top pick for the sector in 4Q26. The brokerage expects earnings to return to year-on-year growth from 3Q26 onward, driven by the turnaround of loss-making businesses, growth from new product launches, and revenue from Cambodia, which is currently factored in at only 20.0% of normal levels. Preliminary normal profit for 3Q26 is estimated at 700-740 million baht, flat to slightly down quarter-on-quarter but up year-on-year. Revenue is expected to continue growing both quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year, supported by domestic business expansion across all segments due to new products and channel expansion, as well as the full-quarter benefit from the "Thai Helps Thai Plus" program. Overseas revenue may decline quarter-on-quarter due to the low season in Myanmar, but should still show strong year-on-year growth thanks to the new plant in Myanmar established in late 2025. Gross profit margin may decline to 25.0% from 26.4% in 2Q26, reflecting the full-quarter impact of higher energy and packaging costs. The brokerage maintains its 2026-2027 normal profit forecasts at 2,712 million baht (-4.4% year-on-year) and 3,124 million baht (+15.2% year-on-year), the highest in six years. There is also upside risk from the recovery of the Cambodian business, revenue recognition from "starter culture" in China, and potentially better-than-expected profit contributions from subsidiaries.

Bualuang Securities stated that Q2/2026 earnings results continue to show positive signals, with net profit of stocks in the group analyzed by BLS Research growing 13% year-on-year and 12% quarter-on-quarter, beating market expectations by 10%. Meanwhile, stocks with better-than-expected earnings accounted for 48%, higher than the 5-year average of 37%. However, the beat-to-miss ratio declined from 6.8 times to 3.4 times, though still above the 5-year average of 1.1 times, reflecting that market expectations are returning to a more balanced level. For Q3/2026, earnings are expected to grow year-on-year but slow down from the previous quarter. The strategy therefore focuses on selective play, choosing stocks with strong earnings growth, no significant downward earnings revisions over the past three months, and supported by specific factors. Notable stocks with supportive factors include KCE, CBG, ITC, BH, BDMS, AOT, CENTEL, and GPSC. Meanwhile, energy, petrochemical, and construction materials sectors are expected to see earnings growth year-on-year but slow down from the previous quarter. Electronics continues to benefit from AI and data centers, while transportation and banking face pressure from energy costs and interest rate spreads. For the SET Index target for mid-2027, it stands at 1,650 points in the base case and 1,710 points in the best case.

Analysts from Bualuang Securities Public Company Limited expect CBG's core profit in the third quarter of 2026 to be around 736 million baht, up 19% from the same period last year and flat from the previous quarter. Meanwhile, OSP is expected to see a decline to around 665 million baht, down 5% year-on-year and down 40% quarter-on-quarter. CBG is supported by domestic energy drink sales growing 10% and sales in Myanmar increasing 70%. In contrast, OSP faces seasonally weak sales in the CLMV group and higher packaging costs. Analysts view CBG as a top pick due to its strong revenue growth momentum. Although OSP trades at a lower 2027 P/E of 13.2 times compared to 17.2 times for CBG, CBG deserves a premium valuation given its expected 2027 profit growth of 15% versus 7% for OSP, and its ROE is projected to improve to 20.7% in 2027.

Finansia Syrus Securities has raised its target price for CBG to 74 baht and lifted its normalized profit forecasts for 2026 to 2028 by 11 to 19 percent. It expects 2026 profit at 2.93 billion baht, up 3.4 percent from the previous year and back above the 2024 level. The research team sees the OEM business for Loveza fruit-juice soda drinks as a key driver, with CBG starting to recognize revenue from the second quarter of 2026 at 5 million cans, rising to 15 million cans in the third quarter and 25 million cans in the fourth quarter, targeting production of 100 million cans in 2027. Meanwhile, the alcoholic beverage distribution business is expected to grow 20 to 25 percent per year over the next two to three years, and the Myanmar business is preparing to expand phase-two production capacity. Third-quarter 2026 net profit is forecast at 792 million baht, up 28.5 percent from the same period last year, marking the first return to year-on-year growth in five quarters.

Bualuang Securities analyzed third-quarter 2026 profit trends, saying overall net profit and core profit are likely to expand compared with the same period last year, but are expected to slow from the previous quarter. Key support comes from Brent crude oil prices rising an average of 28 percent year on year, Singapore GRM refining margins surging 434 percent year on year, and wider petrochemical spreads for both HDPE and PET in the West, along with momentum from mobile and internet service revenue, electronics demand tied to the AI and data center cycle, and the recognition of new production capacity and overseas power plant profits at GULF. At the same time, higher jet fuel costs are pressuring airlines, and narrowing interest margins are weighing on the banking sector. Groups whose core profit grew year on year were led by energy, petrochemicals, construction materials, electronics, communications, and retail. Groups whose core profit fell year on year were led by transport and banking. Bualuang Securities recommends a selective investment strategy focused on stocks whose third-quarter profit trends are still expected to grow strongly, have not seen sharp profit downgrades over the past three months, and have clear positive factors supporting recovery. These include KCE, CBG, ITC, BH, BDMS, AOT, CENTEL, and GPSC.

Krungsri Securities assesses that CBG's business trend will recover in the second half of 2026, with third-quarter 2026 revenue expected to grow from a base affected by Cambodia and seasonality that makes the second half stronger than the first. Thailand's energy drink segment, which accounts for 35% of revenue, is still growing 8-10% per year. The alcohol distribution segment, which accounts for 46% of revenue, is growing 25% per year. Myanmar business, which accounts for 9% of revenue, is expected to grow 70-80% per year. Meanwhile, branded product costs are temporarily affected by high-cost inventory lots during the war period, causing gross margin to decline 1-2% from the previous quarter. The company has begun contract manufacturing packaging for the LOVEZA brand, producing 1 million cans in the first quarter of 2026 and 5 million cans in the second quarter, with third and fourth quarter 2026 output expected to rise to 13 million and 20-25 million cans respectively. The target for 2027 is about 100 million cans, representing revenue of about 400 million baht or 1.5% of total revenue. The company plans to open a third furnace to produce glass bottles, investing 1.5 billion baht through internal cash flow, to be completed in the fourth quarter of 2027, and plans to produce a 12-baht bottle as a new product. It also plans to downsize its UK business, setting a 2026 loss target of about 90 million baht, falling to 23 million baht in 2027. Krungsri estimates 2026 profit at 2.8-3.0 billion baht, flat to up 6% per year, and gives an initial speculative target of 60-65 baht based on 2027 profit growth of 10% per year and a price-to-earnings ratio of 20 times.

Analysts at KGI Securities Thailand have raised their dividend per share forecasts for CBG for 2026 to 2028 to 2.00 baht, 2.20 baht, and 2.40 baht, up from 1.30 baht, 1.40 baht, and 1.45 baht. They expect the payout ratio to rise to 67 to 69 percent from 41 to 47 percent, as the company has no need for large capital spending, which should improve shareholder returns and capital allocation efficiency. CBG will pay a first-half 2026 dividend of 1.00 baht per share, up from 0.70 baht per share in the same period last year, representing a yield of about 1.8 percent and a payout ratio of 74 percent. The analysts maintain a buy rating with a target price of 65 baht, based on a price-to-earnings ratio of 21 times, and see a high likelihood that CBG will be added to the SET50 index in the first half of 2027, which would be another positive factor for the share price. They also name CBG as their top pick in the beverage sector for the third quarter of 2026. Core profit in the third quarter of 2026 is expected to decline from the previous quarter but grow from the same period last year, as gross margin falls by 1 to 2 percent due to higher aluminum and gas costs for the full quarter, even though domestic energy drink sales are still growing 8 to 10 percent and distribution business revenue is expected to jump 20 to 25 percent. For the fourth quarter of 2026, profit is expected to improve both from the previous quarter and from the same period last year, as distribution revenue enters its high season and raw material costs decline.

The Office of the National Economic and Social Development Council reported that gross domestic product in the second quarter of 2026 expanded 1.9% from a year earlier, slowing from 2.8% in the first quarter but above the market forecast of 1.7%. The main support came from private investment, which grew strongly in line with investment promotion applications, while private consumption slowed to 1.9% from 3.3% in the previous quarter amid higher domestic energy prices, and government spending was weak because disbursement had already been accelerated earlier. Yuanta Securities expects consumption to recover clearly in the third quarter from the full-quarter impact of the Thai Chuay Thai Plus measures, and government spending to accelerate toward the end of the fiscal year. It maintains a positive view on construction contractors, power plants, industrial estates, retail, and food and beverage, citing stocks CK, STECON, GUNKUL, GULF, FORTH, SAMART, EPG, BJC, CPALL and CBG. The planning agency also raised its GDP forecast for this year to 2.0 to 2.5% from 1.5 to 2.5%, and lowered its inflation forecast to 1.5 to 2.0% from 2.0 to 3.0%, which helps ease pressure on monetary policy tightening.

Brokers have raised their profit estimates and target prices for Carabao Group Public Company Limited, or CBG, after second-quarter 2026 results came in better than expected. Yuanta Securities Thailand raised its 2026 normalized profit forecast by 5.4% to 2.712 billion baht, and its 2027 forecast by 1.3% to 3.124 billion baht. It also lifted its end-2027 fair value to 70 baht per share from 50.50 baht, implying 27.3% upside, and maintained a buy rating. Bualuang Securities raised its 2026 profit estimate by 8.4% and its 2027 estimate by 8.2%, and increased its end-2027 target price to 63 baht per share from 56 baht, also maintaining a buy rating. CBG reported second-quarter 2026 normalized profit of 736 million baht, up 20.5% quarter-on-quarter but down 8% year-on-year, beating expectations of 630 to 650 million baht. Total revenue was 5.829 billion baht, up 9.6% quarter-on-quarter and 4.5% year-on-year, supported by the energy drink business, distribution business, and domestic OEM business, as well as overseas revenue recovering 23.5% quarter-on-quarter on channel expansion in Myanmar and strategy adjustments in the United Kingdom. The company announced an interim dividend for the first half of 1.00 baht per share, representing a dividend yield of 1.8%, with the ex-dividend date on August 27 and payment on September 11, 2026.

Bualuang Securities said net profit of stocks under its coverage in the second quarter of 2026 rose 13% from a year earlier and 12% from the previous quarter, coming in 10% above market expectations and 11% above the company's estimates. Revenue was only 2% above market expectations, reflecting support from higher energy prices and petrochemical spreads, revenue and ARPU in the communications sector, electronics demand, and cost management in the retail sector. Pressure still came from lower meat prices, weak Cambodian and self-pay patients, and higher energy costs in the transport sector. Sectors with standout core profit growth included energy and petrochemicals, electronics, communications, retail, and hotels. Sectors with the main profit declines remained agriculture and food, hospitals, and transport. Although the overall results beat expectations, market expectations are starting to return to a more balanced level, with the proportion of stocks beating profit estimates at 48%, compared with 59% in the previous quarter, but still above the five-year average of 37%. The beat-to-miss ratio was 3.4 times, down from 6.8 times in the previous quarter, but still above the five-year average of 1.1 times. Stocks with profits notably above market expectations included AOT, SCC, PTTGC, and PTT, while DELTA came in below expectations. On the revenue side, only the petrochemical sector clearly beat expectations, while WHA and BAM came in below. The company assesses a mid-2027 SET target of 1,650 points in the base case and 1,710 points in the best case. But with the beat-to-miss ratio starting to decline, it recommends focusing on selective plays in stocks whose earnings are likely to continue recovering in the second half of 2026. These include CBG, whose earnings are expected to have passed their trough in the second quarter of 2026 before returning to year-on-year growth from the third quarter; BH, supported by recovering Thai and Middle Eastern patients, with third-quarter profit expected to grow both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter; and tourism plays AOT, ERW, and CENTEL, after foreign tourist arrivals in July stood at 2.5 million, down 2.5% from a year earlier, but the average daily number rose 16% from the previous month, while Thai hotel RevPAR is expected to grow both year-on-year and month-on-month.

Bualuang Securities released its review of the financial statements of 11 companies, finding that 8 reported better-than-expected profits: GUNKUL, CK, SPRC, CPF, CBG, AWC, HANA, and BCH. STECON and BH posted profits in line with expectations, while BTS reported a smaller loss than expected. GUNKUL posted core profit of 567 million baht, 7% above expectations. CK posted core profit of 800 million baht, 17% above expectations, and announced an interim dividend of 0.20 baht per share. SPRC posted core profit of 7.09 billion baht, 11% above expectations, and announced a first-half dividend of 0.50 baht per share. CPF posted core profit of 4.57 billion baht, 13% above market expectations. CBG posted core profit of 736 million baht, 13% above expectations. AWC posted core profit of 232 million baht, above expectations. HANA posted core profit of 278 million baht, 25% above expectations. BCH posted core profit of 343 million baht, 13% above expectations, and announced an interim dividend of 0.15 baht per share. STECON posted core profit of 910 million baht, in line with expectations. BH posted core profit of 1.89 billion baht, in line with expectations, and announced an interim dividend of 4 baht per share. BTS reported a core loss of 601 million baht, smaller than the slight profit originally expected.

Carabao Group Public Company Limited, or CBG, reported second quarter 2026 results with total sales revenue of 5.829 billion baht, up 5 percent from the same period last year and up 10 percent from the previous quarter. Sales of Carabao Dang products in Thailand reached 2.053 billion baht, growing 14 percent year on year and 13 percent quarter on quarter, supported by maintaining the retail price at 10 baht and adjusting distribution strategy for broader coverage. Revenue from distribution of other products was 2.598 billion baht, up 23 percent year on year, mainly driven by alcoholic beverage distribution. However, overseas sales declined significantly from last year because sales in Cambodia disappeared, while the Myanmar market continued to grow well, with sales up 53 percent year on year and 16 percent quarter on quarter after the Myanmar plant began commercial production in the fourth quarter of 2025 and is now running at full capacity. Net profit in the second quarter of 2026 was 736 million baht, down 64 million baht or 8 percent year on year, mainly due to lower export revenue, especially in overseas markets, even though total domestic sales still grew well from Carabao Dang and the alcoholic beverage distribution business continued to expand. The board of directors approved a dividend payment to ordinary shareholders at 1.00 baht per share from operating results for the period 1 January to 30 June 2026 and retained earnings. The ex-dividend date is set for 27 August 2026, the record date for shareholders entitled to receive the dividend is 28 August 2026, and the dividend payment date is 11 September 2026.

InnovestX Securities states that the signing of an MOU extending the employment period for over four million Myanmar workers in Thailand by another five years will help unlock the most critical labour bottleneck for Thailand's labour-intensive industrial sector. It also aims to push bilateral trade value to 12 billion US dollars, up from around 7.4 billion dollars, through accelerating border checkpoint restoration, using local currency payment systems, and promoting infrastructure investment, especially the Dawei Special Economic Zone project. However, risks remain from Western sanctions that could pressure the valuation of stocks with concessions or direct investment linked to the Myanmar military government. For short-term investment strategy, the firm recommends speculative trading based on news factors for beneficiary stocks, divided into two themes: groups directly benefiting from more stable labour cost management, such as CK, STECON, GFPT, BTG, CPF, and groups benefiting from a recovering border trade atmosphere, such as MEGA, TNP, CBG, OSP, CHG, BCH.

Globlex Securities, or GBS, estimates that the Thai stock index in August is likely to move in a range of 1,600 to 1,650 points, supported by a more relaxed investment climate for risk assets. This follows President Donald Trump's cancellation of plans to attack Iran and the achievement of a temporary ceasefire agreement, which caused WTI crude oil prices to ease below 80 US dollars per barrel, after having surged past 88 US dollars per barrel. In addition, the OPEC+ group is likely to increase production capacity by another 188,000 barrels per day in September. Meanwhile, investors have reduced the probability of a US Federal Reserve interest rate hike in September to 65 percent from 82 percent, and the European Central Bank kept its policy rate at 2.25 percent. On the domestic front, foreign capital inflows have clearly returned, with net purchases in July reaching as high as 45 billion to 48.7 billion baht, up from 6.86 billion baht in the previous month, bringing cumulative net purchases since the beginning of the year to 73 billion to 74.3 billion baht. This is coupled with June exports expanding 20.8 percent, valued at 34.66 billion US dollars, and headline inflation slowing to 2.42 percent. GBS recommends an investment strategy focusing on stocks with strong fundamentals and outstanding second-quarter 2026 earnings growth prospects, namely CBG, STA, BBGI, PR9, and TNP.

Bualuang Securities recommends an August investment strategy using a Defensive Yield Core theme alongside Satellite Alpha through four main themes. It sees the SET Index likely moving in a range of 1,600 to 1,700 points, driven by a broad-based earnings recovery, reflected in SET EPS being revised up by 4.2 percent in July and 6.3 percent since the start of the year. The Core themes consist of the Thailand Power Infrastructure Cycle, supported by data center investments, with electricity demand in the Eastern Economic Corridor reaching as high as 26,045 megawatts while the system can only accommodate 18.7 percent, benefiting stocks like GULF and GUNKUL. The Higher for Longer Defensive-Dividend Rotation theme is expected to see fund inflows into high-dividend stocks, especially in the communications sector where earnings are still growing, such as ADVANC, whose second-quarter 2026 profit is forecast to rise 24 percent year-on-year, and TRUE, up 48 percent year-on-year. For the Satellite Alpha themes, the firm recommends gradual accumulation on price weakness. These include Policy-driven Tourism Recovery, where the tourism sector is expected to have passed its earnings trough in the second quarter of 2026, aided by government measures worth 1.75 billion baht to stimulate the sector, supporting stocks like ERW. The Selective Consumption Recovery theme highlights pockets of consumption still growing, such as COM7 with sales up 8 to 10 percent year-on-year and ADVICE up 13 to 15 percent year-on-year, benefiting stocks like CBG.

Analysts estimate that Carabao Group's profit will recover from the third quarter of 2026 onward, with the contract distribution business, especially fragrant rice liquor, serving as a key new growth engine. The spirits market is worth approximately 80 billion baht, significantly larger than the energy drink market at around 45 billion baht, and CBG holds a spirits market share of about 17 to 18 percent, leaving ample room to expand its customer base. The research division of Land and Houses Securities expects that within the next two to three years, revenue from the distribution business will become the company's main revenue stream, overtaking the energy drink business for the first time. Meanwhile, the energy drink business remains strong due to the strategy of maintaining a selling price of 10 baht per bottle, and international markets such as Myanmar are still growing 20 to 30 percent per year. The business in England will shift to selling concentrate to local partners by early 2027 to end annual losses of about 100 million baht. Bualuang Securities states that profit in the second quarter of 2026 has bottomed out and is expected to recover in the third quarter, continuing into next year, with a fair price of 56 baht per share, while Land and Houses Securities gives a target price of 58 baht with a buy recommendation.

Bualuang Securities expects net profit of Thai listed companies in the second quarter of 2026 to expand 24 percent from the same period last year and rise 2 percent from the first quarter, supported by higher energy prices, petrochemical spreads, mobile and internet service revenue, lower network costs, demand for electronic components for artificial intelligence and data centers, as well as new power generation capacity and profits from GULF's overseas power plant business. Meanwhile, the meat sector is pressured by lower meat prices, the banking group by narrowing interest margins, and the hospital group by fewer cash-paying patients and a slowdown in non-urgent treatments. Bualuang Securities highlights two investment approaches: picking stocks with still-strong second-quarter profit trends such as PTT, PTTGC, TRUE, ADVANC, AMATA, GULF, GUNKUL, and WHAUP, and gradually accumulating stocks with weak prices but expected strong profit recovery in the second half, such as CBG, ERW, CPF, and BTG.

ASL Securities estimates that Carabao Group's normalized profit in the second quarter of 2026 will recover from the previous quarter due to seasonal factors, but will still decline year-on-year due to a high profit base and weak sales in Cambodia. It expects earnings to return to year-on-year growth from the third quarter of 2026 onward, driven by a recovery in international markets and growth in new businesses. The research team notes that international operations are showing clear signs of recovery, especially in Myanmar and Vietnam, while the distribution business continues to expand and revenue from contract manufacturing under the Love Potion brand is playing a larger role. Domestically, sales through modern trade and retail stores are still growing. Although gross margins are pressured by raw material costs, they are expected to gradually recover in the second half of the year. The research team views CBG's valuation as attractive, with limited downside risk to the share price from a 2 billion baht share buyback program running from May 25 to November 24, 2026, with an estimated average buyback price of around 40 baht per share. Additional positive factors include the earnings recovery trend from the third quarter of 2026 and the possibility of an El Niño phenomenon in the second half, which could boost beverage consumption. For 2026 targets, the company aims for 20% domestic revenue growth, increasing its energy drink market share to 32%, and expanding CJ Mall branches to 2,470, an increase of 500 stores. In international markets, it targets 10% sales growth in Vietnam and 20% in Myanmar, while hoping for a recovery in Cambodia after strategy adjustments. The research team maintains its 2026 net profit forecast at 3 billion baht, up 39% from the previous year, supported by total revenue expected to grow to 24 billion baht, or a 10.6% increase, driven by a record high energy drink market share of 30 to 32%, continued CJ Mall expansion, and sales growth in Myanmar and Vietnam, along with a recovery in Cambodia. Although gross margins may be affected by higher natural gas prices, with the gross profit margin forecast at 26.7% this year, and selling and administrative expenses will rise due to the renewal of the Carabao Cup sponsorship until 2029, the research team believes that revenue growth and the recovery of international businesses will be key factors driving CBG's earnings back to strong growth this year, with a target price of 52 baht per share.

Bualuang Securities forecasts total net profit of listed companies in the second quarter of 2026 to grow 24 percent compared to the same period last year, and 2 percent from the previous quarter. Supporting factors include the energy and petrochemical sectors benefiting from improved oil prices, refining margins, and petrochemical spreads, as well as continued growth in telecommunications, electronics, industrial estates, retail, and hotels. Meanwhile, banking, meat, and hospital sectors still face pressure. Bualuang Securities recommends two investment strategies: selective play in stocks with still-strong profit growth and no earnings estimate cuts, such as PTT, PTTGC, ADVANC, TRUE, AMATA, GULF, GUNKUL, and WHAUP; and bargain hunting in stocks whose profits have passed their trough and are expected to recover in the second half, such as CBG, ERW, CPF, and BTG.

Bualuang Securities expects the Stock Exchange of Thailand index to climb to 1,700 points by the end of 2026, supported by foreign fund inflows projected to reach 160 billion baht in net buying for the full year. This follows net purchases of around 70 billion baht since the start of the year, driven by strong earnings growth among listed companies, particularly in the energy and petrochemical sectors, and the appeal of high dividend yields in Thai equities. For the second half, the investment strategy focuses on selective stock picking in sectors with positive catalysts. These include power plant operators benefiting from green energy demand, with recommendations for GULF, GPSC, GUNKUL, and WHAUP. The electronics sector is recovering in line with global cycles and AI investment, with KCE as a top pick. Commercial banks offering high dividends are favored, with KBANK and KTB highlighted. Tourism and hotel stocks, where earnings have bottomed out, are represented by ERW and AWC. Consumer goods and food companies poised to gain from hotter weather include CBG and CPF. In portfolio allocation, Bualuang Securities advises investors who can tolerate risk to allocate 60 to 70 percent to equities, split into 30 percent Thai stocks and 70 percent foreign stocks, with the remainder in debt instruments and bonds, primarily focusing on Thai debt securities.

Land and Houses Securities has issued a research note recommending the purchase of GLOBAL and CBG shares, with target prices of 7.90 baht and 58.00 baht, respectively. For GLOBAL, second-quarter 2026 profit is expected to soften from the previous quarter but increase year-on-year, supported by an expanding gross margin from selling price adjustments and the use of low-cost inventory. In the second half, profit is expected to continue growing due to still-high gross margins and effective cost control. For CBG, 2026 revenue is forecast to grow strongly from its integrated distribution model and the expansion of domestic sales channels, with full-year profit estimated at around 3.19 billion baht, up 7.5 percent from the previous year. Although the gross margin in the second quarter may weaken slightly due to raw material costs and geopolitical impacts, a recovery is expected in the third quarter.