Berli Jucker PCL

Equity and derivatives market strategists in the research department of InnovestX Securities Company Limited, or InnovestX, assess that the current flooding will have a limited impact on the economy and the SET, because it is merely water waiting to drain from heavy rainfall, unlike the 2011 crisis. In addition, water levels in the main dams remain lower than in 2011 and 2025. If the water recedes within one to two weeks, the impact on 2026 GDP is expected to be around 21 billion baht, or -0.11%, and the firm still expects Thai GDP to grow in line with its 2.0% target in 2026-2027. Historical data shows that in cases of short-term flooding lasting no more than seven days, the SET may dip an average of 0.6% initially before recovering into positive territory within one week. In cases of major flooding lasting more than seven days, the SET typically corrects an average of 3.8% in the first month and begins to recover from the second month onward, with Domestic Play stocks leading the market's recovery. InnovestX therefore recommends a Buy on Dip strategy to gradually accumulate Domestic Play stocks across three main themes. The first is Fast Recovery Plays, namely tourism names such as CENTEL and ERW and healthcare names such as BDMS and BCH. The second is Recovery & Repair Plays, namely commerce names such as HMPRO and GLOBAL and construction materials names such as DCC. The third is Consumer Staples & Stockpiling Plays, namely commerce names such as CPALL, BJC and CRC. At the same time, the firm advises caution on the insurance sector, which may come under pressure from a higher loss ratio.

Kasikorn Securities reported that same-store sales growth, or SSSG, recovered to +1.0% in September, up from +0.4% in August and +0.6% in July. That made it the best month of the third quarter of 2026, led by the food and convenience store segments, with BJC, CPALL, CRC and TAN standing out as stocks showing improving momentum. CPAXT saw its B2B business improve while B2C remained negative at a mid single-digit rate. The research team expects SSSG for the consumer staples group to accelerate to +1–2% in the third quarter of 2026 from +0.4% in the second quarter of 2026, while the luxury goods group should improve to +1–3% from +0.4%. CRC's food business remains strong at +4–6%, and TAN rebounded sharply by 10% in September. The home decoration group remains weak, with third-quarter 2026 SSSG expected to improve only slightly to about -1.0% from 1.3% in the second quarter of 2026. DOHOME came in at around +4–5% off a very low base, while GLOBAL was at about -5%, and HMPRO and CRC's hardline group remained negative at a low single-digit rate. Kasikorn Securities maintained a neutral view on the commerce sector and favours food-focused retailers such as CPALL, as well as CRC, on the momentum in their food and fashion businesses, while home decoration retailers have a chance of a strategic recovery from demand for repairs and home improvements following the floods since early October.

Flooding in Bangkok and its surrounding provinces is weighing on the Thai stock market in the short term. Piriyaphon Kongwanich, a strategist at BLS Wealth Research of Bualuang Securities, estimates preliminary damage of roughly 10 billion to 30 billion baht and expects only a limited impact on gross domestic product and listed-company earnings. He flagged stocks that may draw interest, including HMPRO, GLOBAL, DOHOME and ILM, with the research team upgrading GLOBAL and DOHOME to speculative buy while keeping buy ratings on HMPRO and ILM. Thaweethak Taweethiratham, an executive director at Asia Plus Securities, assesses the overall impact as still limited and short-lived, with building materials benefiting from demand to repair homes, while retail, hospitals and food also have support. Sectors to watch for indirect effects include electronics, power plants, construction contractors, agriculture and commercial banks, while tourism, property and hire-purchase lending have already begun to feel negative effects. InnovestX Securities sees the pullback as a buying opportunity, noting that in past cases of short flooding lasting no more than seven days, the SET typically fell an average of about 0.6%, or 10 points, on the first day before turning positive within a week. It recommends a buy-on-dip strategy in domestic-play stocks through three themes: Recovery & Repair, comprising HMPRO, GLOBAL and DCC; Consumer Staples & Stockpiling, comprising CPALL, BJC and CRC; and Fast Recovery, comprising CENTEL, ERW, BDMS and BCH. The sector warranting added caution is insurance, given the risk that the loss ratio will rise from the damage incurred.

Analysts at CGS International Securities (Thailand) said they hold a positive view on retail stocks, as flooding in many areas of Thailand has made travel inconvenient for the public and impossible in some areas, causing demand for food and consumer goods to rise clearly. They see this as a short-term positive for retail stocks and a driver of stronger sales growth for operators. The standout stocks in the group are BJC, CPALL and CPAXT. The research team gives a buy recommendation on BJC with a target price of 18.00 baht, while analysts at Yuanta Securities (Thailand) give a buy recommendation on CPALL with a target price of 63.00 baht, expecting third-quarter 2026 profit to grow from the same period a year earlier, supported by continued convenience store expansion and same-store sales growth. They expect fourth-quarter 2026 profit to recover strongly, with first-half 2026 profit forecast to account for about 53% of the full year, and they estimate full-year profit at about 31 billion baht, growth of roughly 8.4% from a year earlier. For CPAXT, they set a target price of 16.40 baht with a trading buy recommendation, after the company reported progress on the completed acquisition of 100% of the issued and paid-up shares of The Food Purveyor Sdn. Bhd., or TFP. TFP is one of the main players in Malaysia's premium retail business, holding about 30% market share, operating premium supermarkets under five brands: Village Grocer, B.I.G., BSC Fine Foods, OTK and The Food Merchant, with a network of 50 branches, mostly in city-centre locations and near tourist areas. The research team holds a neutral view on the transaction, estimating CPAXT's 2026 profit at 9.5 billion baht, growth of about 1.8% from 2025, and continuing to expand in 2027 by about 14.3% to roughly 11 billion baht.

Yuanta Securities said a depression caused rainfall to accelerate, triggering flooding in Bangkok and surrounding areas over the past weekend, sparking panic and demand to stockpile essential goods. However, because this round lacked the additional pressure of northern runoff and high sea tides seen in 2011, conditions in many areas eased quickly, especially in inner Bangkok. The research team assesses the impact on investment sentiment as relatively limited, similar to the cases of Japan or South Korea, where situations eased quickly and barely affected investment sentiment. Meanwhile, the Center for Economic and Business Forecasting at the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce estimates the economic impact at a maximum of about 10 billion baht, or 0.05% of GDP, which is considered not large. The research team therefore maintains its EPS forecast for this year at 103 baht per share. The sector directly affected is insurance, from claims during the fourth quarter of 2026 to the first quarter of 2027, while sectors expected to be slightly affected are finance and commercial banks, from measures to help debtors. Sectors that may gain positive sentiment from stockpiling goods and home repairs are home improvement, construction materials, and retail and wholesale of essential goods, such as GLOBAL, DOHOME, HMPRO, CPALL, BJC, and CPAXT, as well as telecom operators ADVANC and TRUE, from data usage and work-from-home measures.

Analysts at Trinity Securities assess that the flash flooding in Bangkok over the past weekend could create sentiment pressure on insurance stocks, especially companies with auto and property insurance portfolios that may face rising claim costs and loss reserves, such as TIPH and THRE. In addition, groups tied to people's mobility, including shopping malls and restaurants such as CRC and CPN, as well as mass transit operators like BEM and BTS, may be affected by a short-term drop in traffic. Conversely, Trinity sees a chance of positive sentiment for consumer staples retail stocks, such as convenience store operator CPALL and hypermarkets BJC and CPAXT, which may see short-term demand for stockpiling goods, as well as the home improvement and construction materials sector, which may benefit from post-flood purchasing demand, such as HMPRO and TOA.

Kasikorn Securities reviewed past flood statistics in Thailand, noting that since 2006 there have been more than 7 flood events, and found that the SET Index delivered negative returns of about 1% over a one-month period, except in 2011 when the great flood sent the SET down 14%. Sectors that outperformed the market were led by ICT and commercial banks, while financials and insurance fell about 2%, and electronics dropped the most at 8%, mostly due to 2011. As for the economic impact, excluding 2011, the monthly effect was in the range of 10 to 50 billion baht, or no more than 0.1-0.3% of GDP. And if assessed from the upside of extending the Khon La Khrueng co-payment scheme by 2 months, GDP estimates could come in around 2.0% plus or minus. Kasikorn Securities estimates the impact of this flood on the market's earnings per share forecast for 2026 to be fairly limited, and estimates the SET Index support range at 1,565-1,580 points, while viewing the decline as an opportunity to gradually accumulate banking, power plant, and electronics stocks, focusing on KTB, BBL, DELTA, and BGRIM. Meanwhile, many analysts view this flood situation, which occurred in late September 2026, as not yet as severe as the great flood of 2011, so panic selling is unlikely. Retail stocks benefit from stockpiling of food and essential goods, namely CPALL, CPAXT, and BJC, and after the water recedes it will be time for cleaning and home repairs, namely HMPRO, GLOBAL, and DOHOME, as well as road repairs, namely TASCO. Initially, state banks and commercial banks have rolled out customer assistance measures. For example, TMBThanachart Bank introduced the "Tang Lak" or "Get Back on Your Feet" measure covering all customer groups. Krungthai Bank introduced assistance measures for retail customers and SME operators, covering interest rate cuts and reduced installment payments, with customers able to express intent to join the program from September 26 to December 31, 2026. And Thai Airways is offering one free ticket change to help passengers affected by flooding in Bangkok and its vicinity.

Yuanta Securities said Berli Jucker Public Company Limited, or BJC, is likely to post year-on-year growth in normalised profit in 3Q26 on higher revenue across all business groups. Same-store sales growth for Big C in Thailand recovered to plus 4 to 6 percent year on year in September 2026, turning positive for a second consecutive month, giving 3QTD same-store sales growth a chance to turn positive for the first time in six quarters. In Vietnam, the MMVN retail business saw 3QTD same-store sales growth of 7 to 9 percent year on year and began recognising a full quarter of revenue, expected to add roughly 100 to 200 million baht per quarter to profit, which is already included in the forecasts. The packaging business continues to receive glass bottle orders after competitors halted production, helping profit in 4Q26 turn up both quarter on quarter and year on year and reach its highest level of the year, driven by the high season for Big C and MMVN, as well as tourist spending that accounts for about 10 to 15 percent of retail sales. The research team maintains its Buy recommendation and has switched to a fair value at end-2027 of 20.80 baht, implying 16.2 percent upside. It expects a second-half 2026 dividend of 0.43 baht per share, a dividend yield of 2.4 percent, and names the stock its top pick in the retail sector for 4Q26.

Yuanta Securities assesses that the SET Index is likely to hold steady, with support at 1,600 points and resistance at 1,610 points. The market leaders remain the anti-oil group, namely power plants, packaging, and transport, while upstream energy and refinery stocks may consolidate as crude oil prices weaken for a fifth consecutive day, down another 2%, following news of a return to diplomatic negotiations to open the Strait of Hormuz, with Iran proposing to open the strait within 7 days in exchange for the United States reducing military and economic pressure. As for retail stocks, which have underperformed for a long time, a rotational rebound is expected after pressure from the Thai Chai Thai Plus scheme eased, with the Cabinet meeting extending the Thai Chai Thai Plus measure by another 2 months with a 1,000 baht contribution, which the market had already anticipated, and is therefore seen as neutral on that conclusion. Retail and wholesale stocks such as CPALL, CPAXT, and BJC are expected to rebound in rotation. The factor to watch is the joint meeting between the Chinese and US presidents on September 24, which is still seen as neutral, with no concrete conclusion expected.

Asia Plus Securities said the Cabinet meeting on 22 September 2026 approved an additional 1,000 baht for the Thai Chai Thai Plus scheme, adding 500 baht per month for October and November 2026 under the same conditions, with the government paying 60% and the public paying 40%. The purchase limit for state welfare cardholders was also raised to 1,000 baht per person per month in October 2026, from 300 baht per person per month previously. The research team holds a neutral view on the impact of the scheme's extension, since the monthly amount was cut to just 500 baht from 1,000 baht during June to September 2026, and retail companies have so far received very little direct benefit from the scheme because their stores do not meet the conditions for joining the programme. The businesses likely to see a small benefit are wholesale consumer goods, fresh food and some construction materials that shops buy in to resell, which supports BJC, CPAXT, CRC and DOHOME. CPALL sees a negative effect but a fairly limited one, while HMPRO and COM7 are seen as unaffected. For third-quarter 2026 earnings trends, the research team expects the sector's combined profit to fall quarter on quarter on seasonality but to grow well year on year on positive same-store sales growth, store expansion, better margins and lower interest expenses. The research team keeps its investment weighting for the sector at market weight and still picks CRC, COM7 and BJC as top picks, given third-quarter 2026 profit trends that should grow year on year more strongly than the sector.

Foreign investors returned to buying Thai stocks, with net purchases of 52.68226 billion baht from the start of the year through September 22, comprising 6.60989403 trillion baht in buys and 6.55721177 trillion baht in sells. In September alone, net buying reached 1.31328 billion baht, from 626.56138 billion baht in buys and 625.24810 billion baht in sells, marking the highest foreign buying in two months and making the Thai stock market the most sought-after in ASEAN. The supporting factor came from Meta's launch of a new AI model with higher processing efficiency, offered free of charge, which the market expects will extend its advertising business and accelerate demand for AI CAPEX, benefiting Thai component stocks, especially DELTA and HANA. Meanwhile, Infra Tech stocks drew support from the NBTC's proposal for a data center board to set new investment criteria, including requiring operators to have power purchase agreements and water supply certificates, to use domestic materials no less than 50%, and to add sustainability requirements. This is expected to boost industrial estate stocks such as AMATA and WHA, power stocks such as GULF, BGRIM and GUNKUL, bank stocks such as KBANK, KTB, KKP and BBL, as well as contractor stocks such as STECON, PYLON and INSET. At the same time, the Cabinet meeting approved extending the Thai Help Thai Plus 40/60 Phase 2 project by another 2 months, from October 1 to November 30, 2026, with a total budget of 42.69 billion baht, and approved an additional 700 baht per person in product purchase credit for state welfare cardholders for October only, bringing the total injection to 1,000 baht per person. This measure is expected to benefit retail stocks such as CPAXT, BJC and CPALL, as well as consumer goods stocks such as CBG and OSP, in a second-round effect.

September earnings estimates for the SET were revised up a further 0.7% month on month and 15.6% since the start of the year, driven mainly by sectors benefiting from higher energy and commodity prices. Petrochemicals led the way with a 6.2% month-on-month increase, as PTTGC rose 13% and IVL gained 7%. The energy sector rose 1.8%, led by refiners BCP up 26%, TOP up 10% and SPRC up 9%, which lifted the estimate for sector heavyweight PTT by a further 2%. The agricultural sector rose 2.1% on higher rubber prices, with STA's earnings estimate revised up 26%. However, the upward revisions are no longer as broad-based as before: fuel station operators PTG fell 26% and OR dropped 4%, while power plant groups SPP, BGRIM and GPSC slipped 2% and 1% respectively. In real estate, LH fell 1% and ORI dropped 13%, reflecting a growing divergence in earnings estimate trends between sectors and individual companies. Stocks still seeing upward revisions included AWC up 8%, CENTEL up 5%, BJC up 4%, CRC up 3%, AMATA up 8% and GUNKUL up 2%.

The Ministry of Finance is preparing to extend the Thai Help Thai Plus Phase 2 programme by another two months, covering October through November 2026, using the same 60:40 formula. Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Ekniti Nitithanprapas said the extension will use remaining budget and will not divert funds from the second tranche earmarked for the energy transition, and that it will be submitted to the Cabinet meeting on 22 September 2026. Analysts at Dao Securities Thailand turned more positive after the timeline became clearer, with the stocks benefiting most from domestic revenue exposure being NEO, rated Buy with a target price of 31 baht, CBG, rated Buy with a target price of 67 baht, and OSP, rated Buy with a target price of 20 baht. Meanwhile, Finansia Syrus Securities estimates that the Phase 2 measure will inject an additional 3.5 to 7.1 billion baht into the system in the fourth quarter of 2026, helping consumption and same-store sales continue to recover. It expects third-quarter 2026 profits for DOHOME and COM7 to grow by around 35 to 45 percent year on year, and keeps its weighting on the commerce sector at NEUTRAL, selecting BJC and COM7 as its top picks.

CGS International Securities (Thailand), or CGSI, expects the SET Index to see a technical rebound today in line with Asian stock markets, projecting a trading range of 1,550-1,585 points after the US Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 0.25% as the market had expected. However, CGSI noted that short-term investment sentiment remains pressured by the Fed's hawkish stance, which signals it may raise rates further this year to curb still-high inflation, amid oil prices that, although starting to ease, remain elevated. In the US stock market on September 16, 2026, the Dow Jones closed at 51,461.90 points, down 631.21 points or 1.21%; the S&P 500 closed at 7,551.81 points, down 33.92 points or 0.45%; and the Nasdaq closed at 25,978.42 points, down 3.15 points or 0.01%. European stocks rebounded, with the STOXX 600 closing at 637.09 points, up 2.91 points or 0.46%. Asian markets saw buying return this morning, especially in Japan, where the Nikkei opened up more than 700 points on buying in technology shares. For investment strategy, CGSI recommends BJC on the clearer recovery trend at Big C after the results of its business restructuring began to show through in earnings, with a take-profit level of 17.90 baht and a stop-loss at 17.10 baht. It maintains a Neutral weighting on the banking sector and picks KBANK as its Top Pick on rising demand for large corporate loans, mortgages, credit cards, and personal loans, with a take-profit level of 254 baht and a stop-loss at 248 baht.

InnovestX Securities Company Limited expects the Thai stock market to remain volatile and has unveiled four standout stock themes to navigate the SET Index falling below 1,600 points. It estimates support at 1,580 and 1,575 points, with resistance at 1,605 and 1,610 points, and recommends a Selective Buy strategy focused on accumulating shares as prices decline. The first theme covers defensive stocks and high-dividend stocks expected to deliver consistent dividend yields above 5% per year, namely BBL, KTB, HMPRO, AP, SCCC and PTT. The second theme covers stocks benefiting from global economic factors and high bond yields. In the energy group it picks PTTEP, BCP, TOP and SPRC, while in shipping it selects PSL and TTA. High bond yields are a positive factor for banks, namely KTB, BBL and KBANK, as well as life insurers BLA and TLI, after the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds rose to 5% for the first time in nearly three years. The third theme covers stocks benefiting from government policy, namely GULF, GUNKUL, AMATA and WHA, on progress with the draft PDP2026 plan and policies supporting rooftop solar, while STECON, CK and SCCC fall in the construction and construction materials group. As for economic stimulus measures, CPALL, CPAXT and BJC are seen benefiting from the extension of the Thai Chai Thai Plus program, while CPALL, CRC, ERW, CENTEL and AOT are supported by the Thai Tiew Thai Plus program. DELTA, HANA and KCE fall under the theme of promoting investment in data centers and artificial intelligence. The final theme covers laggard stocks, namely AP, PR9, SAWAD, HMPRO, BDMS, TU, BCH, MTC and TIDLOR, whose second-half 2026 earnings are expected to grow both year on year and compared with the first half of the year.

Lavaron Sangsnit, Permanent Secretary of the Ministry of Finance and chairman of the screening committee for the 400-billion-baht emergency loan decree, said there is justification and necessity to extend the Thai Chai Thai Plus Phase 2 program, as energy price pressures from external factors remain prolonged, especially oil prices that have risen above 100 again. The existing program ends on September 30, so it must be pushed forward quickly to avoid a gap in assistance to the public. As for the funding, the first relief loan tranche of 200 billion baht now has about 40 billion baht remaining; at the current payout rate it would last only one month. But under legal provisions, funds can be shifted from the second tranche of 200 billion baht to top up the first, allowing the program to be extended beyond one month, or possibly through the end of the year. The screening committee is scheduled to meet this week before submitting the matter to the Cabinet for approval. Meanwhile, analysts at Dao Securities (Thailand) have a positive view on retail and related stocks, favoring CPAXT with a buy rating and a target price of 17.00 baht, and BJC with a buy rating and a target price of 18.50 baht, as they are key suppliers to general stores and restaurants participating in the program. They also favor NEO in the consumer goods group with a buy rating and a target price of 27.00 baht. The research team expects third-quarter 2026 profit to grow from the same period last year on domestic revenue growth of 12%, and has raised its 2026-2027 profit forecasts by 13% and 3% respectively. It projects 2026 net profit at about 642 million baht, up 14% from the previous year.

The Ministry of Finance is considering extending the "Thai Chuay Thai Plus" program, a 60/40 co-payment measure, by roughly one to two months from its original end date of September 30, 2026. The co-payment formula may be adjusted from 60/40 to 50/50 or to the "Khon La Khrueng" half-half format if the extension goes ahead. The program is drawing close attention amid the protracted war between the United States and Iran in the Middle East, which has pushed crude oil prices above 100 dollars per barrel, pressuring travel costs, transport costs, and the public's cost of living. From a stock market perspective, the stock expected to benefit most is CPAXT, which not only gains directly from consumers but is also supported by the mom-and-pop shops and small retailers joining the program, who must buy stock from Makro. Previously, Krungsri Securities viewed CPAXT as one of the stocks benefiting from the measure and gave it a target price of 19 baht. BJC, or Berli Jucker, holds both the Big C retail business and a consumer goods business. CPALL benefits directly from higher consumption through its nationwide 7-Eleven network. Globlex Securities also previously picked CPALL and CPAXT as stocks benefiting from government measures and the stimulus of purchasing power, while consumer goods names such as CBG and OSP stand to gain in a "second round" manner.

Yuanta Securities maintains an Overweight rating on the retail sector, viewing the group's share prices as having underperformed the market too heavily. Comparing year-to-date returns, SETCOMMERCE is at +11%, a significant laggard versus the SET Index at +29%, and valuations are currently inexpensive, with retail stocks trading at an average PER26 of just 15.1 times, close to -1.4 SD of the five-year historical average. The research team selects BJC as its Top Pick with a target price of 18.00 baht and is in the process of reviewing its earnings forecasts and target price upward, expecting it to come in at around +/-19 baht, driven by solid same-store sales growth recovery in August 2026 and an expected strong year-on-year profit recovery in the third quarter of 2026. The stock currently trades at a PER26 of only 13.7 times, below -2SD of the five-year historical average. Meanwhile, CPALL is given a target price of 63.00 baht on continued same-store sales growth recovery, with third-quarter 2026 results expected to recover year on year and valuations still cheap, trading at a PER26 of only 13.5 times, equivalent to -2SD of the five-year historical average. For the quarter to date, average same-store sales growth across the sector stands at -1% to +1% year on year, a solid recovery compared with -3.3% year on year in the third quarter of 2025, supported by selling prices that remain elevated and recovering consumer confidence. Third-quarter 2026 earnings are expected to decline quarter on quarter but grow well year on year on same-store sales growth recovery and store expansion. Gross margins are expected to improve year on year on product prices, a larger house brand product mix, product mix adjustment, and inventory management.

Yuanta Securities (Thailand) expects that in July and August 2026, the SSSG of retail stocks under its coverage will come in at around -1% to +1% year on year, flat to improved compared with an average of -0.9% year on year in the second quarter of 2026, and better than -3.3% year on year in the third quarter of 2025. For the consumer staples group, comprising CPALL, CPAXT, BJC and CRC, average SSSG is expected at -0.5% year on year, an improvement from -1.0% year on year in the second quarter of 2026 and -1.8% year on year in the third quarter of 2025, led by BJC, whose SSSG in August 2026 turned positive for the first time in 2026. CPALL is expected at +1% to +3% year on year and CRC at +1% to +3% year on year, while CPAXT remains weak, with Makro expected to contract 1% to 2% year on year and Lotus expected to contract 3% to 5% year on year. For the home improvement group, comprising GLOBAL, DOHOME and HMPRO, average SSSG is expected at -0.8% year on year, flat from -0.7% year on year in the second quarter of 2026 but better than -5.6% year on year in the third quarter of 2025. DOHOME improved to +5% to +7% year on year on a low base, while GLOBAL and HMPRO remain weak at -5% to -7% year on year and -1% to -3% year on year respectively. The research team expects the retail group's normal profit in the third quarter of 2026 to fall quarter on quarter on seasonal factors, but still grow year on year, supported by revenue growth in line with SSSG trends and planned branch expansion, with gross margins expected to improve year on year on still-high product prices. The year-to-date return of SETCOMMERCE stands at +11%, a significant laggard versus the SET Index at +29%, and retail stocks trade at an average 2026 PER of only 15.1 times, close to -1.4 standard deviations of the five-year historical average. The research team therefore maintains its Overweight investment weighting and picks BJC as Top Pick with a target price of 18.00 baht, and is in the process of reviewing upward its earnings forecasts and target price, expected at around plus or minus 19 baht, on the strong SSSG recovery in August 2026, with the stock trading at a 2026 PER of only 13.7 times, below -2 standard deviations of the five-year historical average. It also picks CPALL with a target price of 63.00 baht on the continued SSSG recovery trend and still-cheap valuation, trading at a 2026 PER of only 13.5 times, equivalent to -2 standard deviations of the five-year historical average.

Kasikorn Securities (KS) assesses that same-store sales growth (SSSG) for the retail sector in August 2026 is likely to expand slightly at 0-1%, supported by a low base in the previous year. Meanwhile, Asia Plus Securities (ASPS) views that SSSG will mostly turn slightly positive, led by BJC, CPALL, CRC, and DOHOME, but CPAXT and HMPRO remain negative due to not participating in the "Thai Helps Thai Plus" project. KS expects the average SSSG for the sector in July-August to turn positive at approximately 0.5%, from a negative 0.6% in Q2 2026, and selects CPALL, MOSHI, and CRC as top picks. ASPS, on the other hand, selects CRC, COM7, and BJC. The research side maintains a "Neutral" view on the commerce sector, and ASPS maintains an "Equal-weight" investment rating on the commerce sector, expecting sector profits in 2026 to grow 12% year-on-year.

Asia Plus Securities assesses retail stocks, expecting that the SSSG in August 2026 for most companies will trend slightly positive, including BJC, CPALL, CRC, and DOHOME, due to a low base in the previous year and product price adjustments. Meanwhile, CPAXT and HMPRO are expected to remain negative due to fragile purchasing power and the impact of not participating in the Thai Helps Thai Plus project. For the third quarter of 2026, the group's SSSG is expected to be slightly positive, with DOHOME likely to grow the most at around 4-5%, while HMPRO and CPAXT are likely to decline the most. The group's total profit is expected to decrease QoQ but grow well YoY, driven by positive SSSG, store expansion, and improved margins. The research department maintains a market-weight rating and selects CRC, COM7, and BJC as top picks due to their outstanding third-quarter profit trends.

Retail stocks rose, led by BJC, which gained 3.03% to 17.00 baht, while CPAXT and CPALL advanced 1.37% and 1.09%, respectively. This follows broker expectations that the end of the government's economic stimulus program in September will help reduce spending distortions and support a return to positive same-store sales growth (SSSG). Tisco Securities noted that August SSSG for the retail group declined 0.6% from June, but BJC was the only one to report positive SSSG, beating expectations. Meanwhile, CPALL remains a standout due to the tourism recovery and ready-to-eat food, while CPAXT still faces pressure from the stimulus program. We expect September trends to be similar to August, as the stimulus program continues to affect consumer spending patterns for the remainder of the measure.

BJC has successfully offered bonds to institutional and high-net-worth investors, with subscriptions exceeding the target by 2.42 times. As a result, the company increased the bond issuance value to 19.1 billion baht, up from the original target of 15 billion baht. The bonds have tenors ranging from 1 year 11 months 29 days to 6 years, with interest rates of 1.53% to 2.41% per annum, and are rated A with a Stable outlook by TRIS Rating. Mrs. Thapanee Techajareonvikul, Chief Executive Officer and Managing Director, stated that this bond issuance consists of 4 tranches of unsecured, non-subordinated bonds, offered through Bangkok Bank, Krungthai Bank, Kasikorn Bank, and UOB. The company also exercised the Greenshoe Option to add 4.1 billion baht to accommodate the unexpectedly high investment demand. This success reflects investors' confidence in the company's potential, which has been operating in Thailand for over 144 years.

Ms. Thapanee Techajareonvikul, Chief Executive Officer and Managing Director of Berli Jucker Public Company Limited (BJC), revealed that Vietnam's overall economy is growing strongly, with the latest GDP at approximately 8.19% – 8.2%. This has driven MM Mega Market Vietnam's sales to grow 8.9% in dong terms, or approximately 5.9% in baht terms. Meanwhile, SSSG remains positive, and the profit margin expanded to 18.1%. After closing the deal on May 15, the company recorded a profit of 145 million baht, but recognized only 97 million baht on a time-proportionate basis. After deducting interest expenses of 32 million baht, the incremental net profit exceeded 60 million baht. In the third quarter, the company will begin recognizing 100% of the profit for the full quarter, which will be higher than in the second quarter. The company plans to increase Vietnam's business share to 50% of the total portfolio by 2040, up from the current 15%, and has plans to list Big C on the stock exchange within 3-5 years. Meanwhile, Thailand's retail business has passed its lowest point, with SSSG turning positive in August after a -3.5% decline in the second quarter. The company is also expanding its larger-format Mini Big C stores of 300 square meters to 120 branches by year-end, from the current 18 branches, and plans to increase production capacity by 30% over the next two years, with a total investment budget of 5,438 million baht.

BJC Group Public Company Limited (BJC) expects revenue in the second half of 2026 to continue growing from the first half, which saw total revenue of over 96.3 billion baht. This is supported by its glass and can packaging manufacturing business, which has orders booked through the end of the year, and it has locked in raw material prices until mid-2027. Meanwhile, Big C's same-store sales growth (SSSG) turned positive in August and is expected to improve further towards the end of the year. MM Mega Market Vietnam (MMVN) will recognize a full quarter of revenue in Q3 2026, with SSSG growing in double digits. The company maintains its plan to list Big C on a foreign stock exchange within 3-5 years and is seeking a strategic partner. At the same time, it is in negotiations to sell its Big C business in Cambodia to a Vietnamese partner.

A survey of second-quarter 2026 earnings among companies listed on the Stock Exchange of Thailand found that 71 firms recorded net profit growth of more than 100% compared with the same period last year. TMT Steel Public Company Limited, or TMT, led the pack with net profit of 299.87 million baht, up 910.23% from 29.68 million baht. Hana Microelectronics Public Company Limited, or HANA, followed with net profit of 326.31 million baht, up 838.35%, and Susco Public Company Limited, or SUSCO, posted net profit of 120.59 million baht, up 797.01%. Among large-cap stocks with profit growth above 100%, True Corporation reported net profit of 6.55 billion baht, up 222.68%; Berli Jucker Public Company Limited posted net profit of 2.88 billion baht, up 191.07%; PTT reported net profit of 52.52 billion baht, up 143.93%; SCG Packaging posted net profit of 2.30 billion baht, up 128.15%; and PTT Exploration and Production reported net profit of 27.20 billion baht, up 101.23%.

Berli Jucker Public Company Limited reported second-quarter 2026 net profit surged 191.1% year-on-year to 2.882 billion baht, supported by improved underlying operating performance and gains from the sale of unused assets. Normalised net profit from operations rose 12.8% to 1.228 billion baht. Total revenue came in at 49.021 billion baht, up 6.8%, with the packaging group the standout performer, posting revenue of 7.452 billion baht, up 29.7%, and earnings before interest and tax up 32.3% to 1.257 billion baht. The modern retail group recorded total revenue of 32.241 billion baht, down 1.0%, with same-store sales down 2.1%, but the Town Center business recovered with an occupancy rate of 92.4%. The company is confident the second half will recover in line with improving consumer confidence seen in June.

The Office of the National Economic and Social Development Council reported that gross domestic product in the second quarter of 2026 expanded 1.9% from a year earlier, slowing from 2.8% in the first quarter but above the market forecast of 1.7%. The main support came from private investment, which grew strongly in line with investment promotion applications, while private consumption slowed to 1.9% from 3.3% in the previous quarter amid higher domestic energy prices, and government spending was weak because disbursement had already been accelerated earlier. Yuanta Securities expects consumption to recover clearly in the third quarter from the full-quarter impact of the Thai Chuay Thai Plus measures, and government spending to accelerate toward the end of the fiscal year. It maintains a positive view on construction contractors, power plants, industrial estates, retail, and food and beverage, citing stocks CK, STECON, GUNKUL, GULF, FORTH, SAMART, EPG, BJC, CPALL and CBG. The planning agency also raised its GDP forecast for this year to 2.0 to 2.5% from 1.5 to 2.5%, and lowered its inflation forecast to 1.5 to 2.0% from 2.0 to 3.0%, which helps ease pressure on monetary policy tightening.

Krungsri Securities said BJC reported second-quarter 2026 core profit of 1.18 billion baht, up 5 percent from a year earlier and 24 percent from the previous quarter, close to analyst expectations. Total sales rose 13 percent from a year earlier to 43.7 billion baht, supported by the consolidation of MM Vietnam and the packaging business, where sales grew a strong 30 percent from a year earlier. Big C Thailand remained weak, with sales down 3 percent from a year earlier as same-store sales fell 3 percent amid soft purchasing power for non-food items and the impact of the Thai Chuay Thai Plus programme. Consolidated gross margin was stable at 20.2 percent from a year earlier, improving in almost every business thanks to economies of scale and a better product mix, while selling, general and administrative expenses as a percentage of sales declined to 20.3 percent from 20.8 percent in the second quarter of 2025 due to the MM Vietnam consolidation. Including after-tax special gains from asset sales and foreign exchange gains totalling 1.70 billion baht, net profit was 2.88 billion baht, up 191 percent from a year earlier and 173 percent from the previous quarter. BJC announced a first-half 2026 dividend of 0.17 baht per share, representing a yield of 1.1 percent, with the ex-dividend date on 27 August. The analyst maintained a buy rating and a 2027 target price of 17.20 baht, viewing BJC as a value stock whose core earnings are beginning to recover from the MM Vietnam consolidation and efficiency improvements in Thailand. Core profit is expected to rise 6 percent and 7 percent from a year earlier in 2026 and 2027 respectively, while the stock trades at 2026 and 2027 price-to-earnings ratios of only 14.1 times and 13.2 times. The one-year forward price-to-earnings ratio is about one standard deviation below its three-year average, suggesting concerns are already largely priced in, and the analyst sees this as an accumulation opportunity.

Land and Houses Securities assesses that the retail sector faces short-term challenges, with CPAXT's second-quarter profit falling 18 percent year-on-year despite higher total revenue, as selling and administrative expenses rose from accelerated branch expansion and Lotus's same-store sales declined nearly 4 percent due to indirect impacts from the Thai Helps Thai Plus scheme. Analysts expect the retail and wholesale sector to recover in the fourth quarter, which is the high season, and may get support from short-term stimulus measures such as increasing the state welfare card limit, which will benefit TNP. BJC is expected to see profit recovery in the second half, supported by its packaging business. Meanwhile, the tourism sector is viewed as the most attractive for long-term investment, as the government prepares concrete tourism stimulus measures in the fourth quarter, with recommended stocks including ERW, CENTEL, and MINT. The finance sector is a laggard with earnings poised to surge, with SAWAD expected to post quarter-on-quarter growth in the second quarter and stand out in the second half, while MTC is worth accumulating as its price has not risen much.

Dao Securities expects BJC's normalised profit for the second quarter of 2026 at 1.3 billion baht, up 13% year-on-year and 18% quarter-on-quarter. Revenue is projected to increase 11% year-on-year to 43 billion baht, driven by the first full quarter of booking MM Mega Market Vietnam revenue and continued strong growth in the packaging business, even though Big C same-store sales remain down about 3% year-on-year. Net profit also gets a boost from higher other income from land sales. The broker maintains its 2026 and 2027 net profit forecasts at 4.4 billion baht and 4.6 billion baht respectively, keeps a buy rating, but raises the target price to 18.50 baht from 17.00 baht, based on a 2026 price-to-earnings ratio of 16.8 times.

Several brokers view MOSHI as the standout in the retail sector. Maybank Securities forecasts second-quarter 2026 profit at 154 million baht, up 15% year-on-year, with same-store sales growth of 3.5%, the highest in the group. KGI Securities and DBS Vickers Securities emphasize recovering consumer confidence and ongoing branch expansion plans. In the hotel sector, ERW is expected to post a 25% year-on-year profit increase in the second quarter of 2026, supported by short-haul tourists and HOP INN. CENTEL is projected to earn 120 million baht, up 15% year-on-year, and is benefiting from positive sentiment around year-end domestic events. For large-cap stocks, PTT is seen as having its core business returning to a recovery cycle. Krungsri Securities expects normalized profit in 2026 to grow 66%, with the stock trading at a low price-to-book value of just 0.95 times. TRUE is forecast to achieve a new record high for second-quarter 2026 profit, reaching 6.8 billion baht, a 232% year-on-year surge, driven by higher margins and reduced competition. In logistics, SJWD is expected to report normalized second-quarter 2026 profit of 337 million baht, up 18% year-on-year, the highest in five quarters. UOB Kay Hian has upgraded BJC to a buy recommendation, citing an improving utilization outlook for its glass bottle production. Additionally, AIRA Securities notes that GANFENG23, which references Ganfeng Lithium Group, one of the world's largest lithium producers, has a forward price-to-earnings ratio for 2026 of just 7.8 times, well below its five-year historical average of 14.4 times, with earnings expected to recover as lithium carbonate prices rise to 160,000 yuan per ton.

Berli Jucker Public Company Limited, or BJC, is likely to see normalised profit in the second quarter of 2026 recover by 14% compared to the same period last year, faster than the market had anticipated. Yuanta Securities estimates normalised profit at 1.2 billion baht and total net profit as high as 2.9 billion baht, which includes an extraordinary gain from land sales of about 1.6 billion baht. Core revenue is expected at 43 billion baht, growing 14% from the previous quarter and 13% from a year earlier, supported by the acquisition of a retail business in Vietnam, MMVN, since mid-May. Meanwhile, the packaging business is growing strongly by 30% from last year after competitors reduced production capacity and major customers placed more orders. Gross profit margin is expected to increase by 30 basis points, and the effective tax rate is expected to fall to 18% due to the use of tax incentives. The broker has raised its normalised profit forecasts for 2026 and 2027 by 7 to 10% to 4.8 billion baht and 5.3 billion baht respectively, upgraded its recommendation to buy, and set a new target price of 18.00 baht, noting that the current share price trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of only 11 to 12 times and below book value.

Asia Plus Securities forecasts that Berli Jucker Public Company Limited, or BJC, will post a net profit in the second quarter of 2026 as high as 2.9 billion baht, surging 189% from the same period last year. The main drivers are an extraordinary gain from the sale of 19 land plots worth 1.64 billion baht and growth in the packaging business, both glass and cans. Normalised profit is expected at 1.22 billion baht, up 9% year-on-year. Although the modern retail business under the Big C brand slowed due to a roughly 3% drop in same-store sales and some store closures, total revenue still expanded 2%, supported by packaging. The gross profit margin is expected to rise to 20.1% from 19.7% in the second quarter of 2025. If in line with expectations, first-half profit would account for 52% of the full-year 2026 profit forecast of 4.5 billion baht. The research team maintains a buy recommendation and a target price of 17.80 baht, viewing the share price as still lagging the commerce sector, while same-store sales in July have started to recover thanks to economic stimulus measures.

Phillip Securities expects the Thai stock index to trade sideways in a range of 1,640 to 1,665 points, pressured by a 2026 forward P/E of 16.7 times, close to the average since 2020 of 17.1 times, and banking stocks may face sell-on-fact pressure after earnings announcements. However, the TISA project measures will help prevent the index from falling deeply, and a rotation of funds out of banking stocks into real sector stocks is expected for speculation on second-quarter 2026 earnings, which are anticipated to be strong. The investment strategy is divided into four main themes: speculation on second-quarter 2026 earnings in stocks such as AMATA, CPALL, DELTA, HANA, ITC, KCE, MRDIY, MTC, OSP, QH, SAWAD, SCC, STECON, and TIDLOR; energy stocks in BCP, PTT, PTTEP, SPRC, and TOP; speculation on government measures or projects in BJC, CENTEL, CK, CPAXT, CRC, DOHOME, ERW, GLOBAL, HMPRO, LH, MINT, and SCC; and hopes for investment inflows from China in ADVANC, GUNKUL, GULF, ROJNA, WHA, and WHAUP.

Three brokers expect the Thai stock market to move sideways this afternoon in a range of 1,644 to 1,657 points. Asia Plus says the index has limited downside after the market has already priced in a base-case US tariff of 15–20 percent. It is also watching today's cabinet meeting, which may extend the deadline for appealing state welfare card decisions to 20 September 2026 and prepare assistance for those who do not qualify through the Thai Helps Thai Plus programme at 1,000 baht per month from August to September 2026, a slight positive for grassroots retail stocks such as CPALL, CPAXT, BJC, and CRC. ASL views the morning session as edging higher on buying in large-cap stocks and the parts sector after South Korea reported a 52.3 percent rise in exports, but selling in banking stocks weighed after second-quarter earnings reports. Globlex says the index is consolidating above all EMA lines, supported by buying in energy, construction materials, and ICT, but has yet to break resistance at 1,655 points due to a lack of new catalysts. The index closed the morning session at 1,651.45 points, up 5.45 points or 0.33 percent, with turnover of 53.53 billion baht.