Thailand

Chalach Chinthammit, Chief Executive Officer and Managing Director of Khon Kaen Sugar Industry Public Company Limited, or KSL, said that world sugar prices, which have risen to around 18.94 cents per pound, a roughly 17-month high, will be a positive factor for next year's crushing season, since all sugar to be sold this year has already been forward-contracted. For the 2026/2027 crushing season, which runs from December 2026 through no later than April 2027, KSL expects sugarcane crush volumes to grow from the previous season's estimate of about 8.3 million tonnes, driven by larger sugarcane output reaching the market and water availability for cultivation that remains consistently favorable. The recent weakening of the baht, averaging around 33.64 baht per US dollar, is an additional positive factor, since about 70% of KSL's revenue comes from exporting sugar products overseas. For the 2026 fiscal year, the company expects full-year results to swing to a profit, compared with a loss of 660 million baht in 2025, because this year there is no provision for expenses related to projects in neighboring countries, and the first nine months of this year already showed a profit of about 358 million baht.

Light Up Total Solution Public Company Limited, or LTS, expects to fully recognise 100% of its backlog, worth approximately 60 million baht, within this year, according to Chief Executive Officer Phat Trasophosit. Third-quarter 2026 results remained steady from the second quarter, when the company posted a profit of 7.5 million baht and revenue of 132 million baht, because the third quarter was mainly a preparation period. The company is preparing to bid on three to four new projects with a combined value in the hundreds of millions of baht, with contracts expected to be signed in the fourth quarter of 2026 and some revenue, roughly 40 million baht, potentially recognised then. The remainder will begin to be recognised in the first or second quarter of 2027. The company puts its chances of winning the work at about 70%, citing its expertise and ready qualifications, and therefore expects 2027 results to grow by leaps and bounds, driven by government funding to accelerate the switch to energy-saving LED lighting in public areas. The company is also looking at one or two opportunities related to data centres, both in the form of equipment leasing and system testing work, though there is no clear timeline yet because it must wait for contracts with clients and several items of equipment are in short supply. At the same time, it plans to expand into AI Cloud rental services through the establishment of a joint venture, Noventrix Company Limited, in which the company will hold about 40%. The establishment has been pushed back to the fourth quarter of 2026 from an earlier target of completion within September, due to product supply shortages.

Global Securities, or GBS, says King Gen Public Company Limited, or KGEN, is entering a turnaround phase, raising its stake in Omoda & Jaecoo Manufacturing (Thailand) Company Limited, which operates the electric vehicle plants for the OMODA JAECOO and CHERY brands, from the current 43.7% to 51% in early July, and then to 60% in late July to early August. This will shift revenue recognition from the share of profit of an associate to full consolidation of both revenue and profit. Management expects that after the stake increase, revenue will grow significantly year on year to 25 billion baht, with a net profit margin of 2.5-3.0%, or roughly 600-700 million baht. Previously, KGEN reported second-quarter 2026 profit of 37 million baht, up 171% quarter on quarter and 152% year on year, after losses in the first quarter of 2026 and the second quarter of 2025. The main driver was the share of profit from its investment in that associate, whose production line began operating on 20 April 2026, while revenue from sales and services grew to 227 million baht, up 8% quarter on quarter and 36% year on year. Bookings for JAECOO and OMODA electric vehicles at the Big Motor Sale 2026, held from 21-30 August 2026, totaled 5,028 units, with deliveries scheduled for September to October 2026, an additional factor supporting revenue and profit growth. The current share price still cannot be assigned a P/E ratio because the company has posted continuous losses from 2022 through the first six months of 2026, though earnings are expected to turn around from 2026 onward. The stock trades at a P/BV ratio of 2.58 times, above its one-year, two-year and three-year averages of 2.56, 2.30 and 2.10 times respectively.

ALT Telecom Public Company Limited, or ALT, disclosed that it is in negotiations for additional deals with global-tier customers, the Global Hyperscalers, in the fourth quarter of 2026, after signing network and digital infrastructure lease contracts worth a total of approximately 2 billion baht in the third quarter of 2026, with a contract term of 20 years. Preeyaporn Tangpaosak, Managing Director, told the Stock Vision news team that the company targets double-digit growth in revenue in the second half of 2026, driven by recurring revenue recognition from its existing network. The expansion of its large-customer base has raised the value of work awaiting revenue recognition, or backlog, for the group from 5.115 billion baht as of the second quarter of 2026 to approximately 6.9 billion baht in September 2026. The company is also proceeding with bids for smart grid power network systems and AMI smart meter installation work for the Provincial Electricity Authority and the Metropolitan Electricity Authority, as well as government work in security and digital fields, with a combined value of several billion baht. It is also pushing to connect networks in the Eastern Economic Corridor, or EEC, with data centers in Bangkok and overseas, setting a target internal rate of return, or IRR, for new projects of no less than 10 to 15 percent. The company sees three key drivers supporting revenue and profit growth over the next 12 to 18 months: the data center and AI trend, growth in smart meter and smart grid work, and margin expansion from operating leverage.

TQR Public Company Limited, or TQR, disclosed that it is still gathering detailed information on the national catastrophe insurance programme, after the government began providing coverage from 1 October 2026 to 30 September 2027. It views the government's support and establishment of a risk-distribution mechanism as an important development for the country, and one that may help raise its capacity to absorb catastrophe risk closer to international standards. Under the programme, the government purchases insurance on behalf of the public, covering 30 million households nationwide, with protection against floods, windstorms and earthquakes. A total of 11 insurance companies are participating, five of which are listed on the Thai stock exchange: TIPH, BKIH, MTI, TVH, THRE and TQR. Meanwhile, ASL Securities views the programme as positive for the insurance sector in terms of premium growth and expanding insurance penetration, and recommends gradually accumulating TIPH, KTB and BBL. TIPH is the standout stock, benefiting directly through Thip Insurance, which has the opportunity to take on new premiums and build them into recurring premium income if the government renews the programme next year. KTB and BBL, meanwhile, gain indirect positive sentiment.

US non-farm payrolls rose by just 29,000 in September, far below the 90,000 economists had expected in a Reuters poll, and figures for the two prior months were revised down. The unemployment rate edged up to 4.2%, against economists' expectations that it would hold steady at 4.1%. The data led investors to scale back bets that the Fed will raise interest rates by at least 0.25% at its late-October meeting, with CME FedWatch showing the odds falling to 22.7% from 24.4% the previous day and 64.2% a week earlier. This supported US stocks and bodes well for Thai equities, especially rate-sensitive sectors such as property, power plants and financials, including AEONTS and SAWAD, which trade at 0.79 and 0.90 times book value respectively. Analysts, meanwhile, are highlighting TIDLOR and MTC as top picks. All 16 analysts polled unanimously recommend buying TIDLOR, which Kasikorn Securities gives a mid-2027 target price of 24.40 baht after raising this year's profit forecast by 2% to 6.163 billion baht, lifting 2027 by 5% to 6.638 billion baht and 2028 by 3% to 7.3 billion baht, while raising its long-term ROE assumption to 16% from 15.2%. For MTC, Krungsri Securities maintains a buy rating with a 2027 target price of 44 baht, citing manageable asset quality and potential upside to this year's and next year's net profit from provisioning expenses.

Four brokerages assess that the flood situation in Bangkok and its vicinity in 2026 will cause limited economic damage, as the waters have not yet spread into industrial estates or key production bases, unlike the great flood of 2011 that disrupted production chains on a wide scale. Finansia Syrus Securities estimates preliminary damage at around 20–40 billion baht, or roughly 0.1–0.2% of GDP, and views pressure on the stock market as reflecting short-term concerns rather than affecting earnings. Kasikorn Securities estimates damage at about 3,000–4,000 million baht per day, or roughly 20–30 billion baht per week; if severe conditions persist for one week, it could drag on GDP by about 0.1%. As of 27 September 2026, 25 provinces and 128 districts have been affected, with about 545,000 people impacted, compared with 2011 when floods hit 66 provinces, affected about 13.6 million people and caused damage of approximately 1.4 trillion baht. CGS International notes that Bangkok and its vicinity account for about 47.3% of the country's economy, and divides the situation into two scenarios: if water can be drained within 4–5 days, the impact will be limited, but if it drags on beyond 5 days, it could weigh more on purchasing power and consumption. For stocks that benefit after the waters recede, Finansia Syrus favours HMPRO, GLOBAL, DOHOME, TOA, SCGD, DCC and DRT, while Kasikorn favours retail and food groups as well as the ICT group. Pi Securities estimates a SET range of 1,590–1,620 points and picks BDMS, BCH, CPALL, PTT, PTTEP, PTTGC, TOP, ITC and TU, while CGS International says to watch DELTA, HANA and KCE if the SET falls below 1,600 points, on the theme of investment in artificial intelligence and digital infrastructure.

Several brokers issued positive research on shares of Bangchak Corporation Public Company Limited, or BCP, after its sustainable aviation fuel, or SAF, project began commercial production last May. Land and Houses Securities estimates the SAF project generates EBITDA of as much as 1 billion baht on high SAF price spreads, and expects the SAF project together with Chevron Hong Kong to support a first full quarter of profit in the third quarter of 2026 and a full year next year, while maintaining a buy rating with a target price of 56 baht. Asia Plus Securities said that in the second quarter of 2026 the SAF business generated EBITDA of about 1 billion baht, roughly 3.9% of total EBITDA, and expects SAF sales volumes to rise in the third quarter of 2026 as the plant runs for a full quarter, assigning a fundamental value of 58 baht and recommending trading gains at 58 baht. InnovestX maintained an OUTPERFORM rating with a mid-2027 target price of 75 baht after taking analysts to visit the new commercial SAF production unit next to the Phra Khanong refinery, which began commercial operations in May 2026. The research team views global SAF demand as likely to rise in line with carbon reduction measures in the aviation industry, especially in Europe, while intensifying competition for used cooking oil is keeping raw material costs and business margins volatile.

Equity and derivatives market strategists in the research department of InnovestX Securities Company Limited, or InnovestX, assess that the current flooding will have a limited impact on the economy and the SET, because it is merely water waiting to drain from heavy rainfall, unlike the 2011 crisis. In addition, water levels in the main dams remain lower than in 2011 and 2025. If the water recedes within one to two weeks, the impact on 2026 GDP is expected to be around 21 billion baht, or -0.11%, and the firm still expects Thai GDP to grow in line with its 2.0% target in 2026-2027. Historical data shows that in cases of short-term flooding lasting no more than seven days, the SET may dip an average of 0.6% initially before recovering into positive territory within one week. In cases of major flooding lasting more than seven days, the SET typically corrects an average of 3.8% in the first month and begins to recover from the second month onward, with Domestic Play stocks leading the market's recovery. InnovestX therefore recommends a Buy on Dip strategy to gradually accumulate Domestic Play stocks across three main themes. The first is Fast Recovery Plays, namely tourism names such as CENTEL and ERW and healthcare names such as BDMS and BCH. The second is Recovery & Repair Plays, namely commerce names such as HMPRO and GLOBAL and construction materials names such as DCC. The third is Consumer Staples & Stockpiling Plays, namely commerce names such as CPALL, BJC and CRC. At the same time, the firm advises caution on the insurance sector, which may come under pressure from a higher loss ratio.

Asset World Corp Public Company Limited, or AWC, expects to offer investment units of the AWC Lifestyle Properties Real Estate Investment Trust, or AWR, in late the fourth quarter of 2026 or the first quarter of 2027, after Asset World Corp REIT Company Limited, a subsidiary 99.99% held by AWC and serving as the trust's manager, already filed its application and Official Filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission, or SEC, on September 29, 2026. Mrs. Wallapa Traisorat, Chief Executive Officer and President, disclosed that this round will use a Strategic Synergy Model together with AWC, with the AWR trust investing in a first group of assets held on freehold title, spanning both the hotel and commercial real estate businesses, totaling five projects: The Empire (Sathorn) with a minimum value of 25.12 billion baht, Banyan Tree Samui hotel at 6.463 billion baht, Pattaya Marriott Resort and Spa hotel at 6.717 billion baht, Melia Koh Samui hotel at 5.895 billion baht, and Banyan Tree Krabi Resort hotel at 4.884 billion baht. For this round, the assets are worth approximately 14 billion baht, with AWC to hold 28% of the investment units and expected to recognize about 10 billion baht through its profit and loss statement, while those assets have a book cost of roughly 18 billion baht and unrealized gains of about 5 billion baht. The funds raised will be managed under an initial dividend policy targeting payouts every quarter, four times a year, with part used to repay debt to reduce the debt-to-equity ratio, or D/E Ratio, from about 0.9 times currently to 0.6 times, in order to support growth in return on equity, or ROE, and to accommodate new project development plans as a Development Engine to generate ongoing development profits.

Krungsri Securities has maintained its buy recommendation on Plan B Media Public Company Limited, or PLANB, with a target price of 8.10 baht based on a DCF method and a WACC of 8.1%. It assesses that the investment in iCare, a subsidiary of COM7, has the potential to generate incremental profit of approximately 170 million baht per year after deducting financial costs, representing an upside of about 11% to profit in 2027. If profit share before financial costs is considered, it is expected at approximately 200 million baht per year, or an upside of 11-13%. PLANB subscribed to 1,126 million newly issued iCare shares worth 860 million baht at 0.764 baht per share, giving it a 46.28% stake after the capital increase, with COM7 holding an equal proportion. Krungsri stated that the purchase price of the iCare shares represents a P/E of only 6 times, below the insurance business group average of 9 times, and it expects PLANB's net profit in 2026 and 2027 to grow 14% and 25% respectively from recognition of its profit share from COM7. These projections do not yet include the positive effects of the iCare deal, which therefore represents upside to the previous profit forecast for 2027. However, the share purchase still requires approval from the shareholders' meetings of COM7 and iCare, as well as consent from the Office of the Insurance Commission, or OIC. The process is expected to be completed by the end of 2026, and iCare will not have the status of a subsidiary of PLANB.

ASL Securities recommends gradually accumulating THAI shares, viewing that although operational problems are weighing on short-term sentiment, earnings momentum has begun to recover since the fourth quarter of 2026, after the THAI board resolved to remove Mr. Chai Eiamsiri from his duties as CEO, appoint a committee to investigate allegations concerning procurement and management, and install an acting CEO to oversee operations. This is seen as a short-term negative sentiment issue stemming from uncertainty over management and governance, and the investigation's outcome and the process of selecting a new CEO bear watching. During the disruption, THAI cut 15 flights on October 1 and 9 flights on October 2, before preparing to restore all flights from October 3, and opened a 24-hour collection point for stranded baggage. Meanwhile, the Suvarnabhumi cargo warehouse temporarily suspended receiving goods until October 6. The impact on 2025 profit forecasts is seen as fairly limited if the situation does not drag on, because it occurred late in the third quarter, which is the seasonal low season, while the business fundamentals still have support from fleet expansion, network optimization, and yield management. In the first half of 2026, the company still posted an operating profit of 17.4 billion baht and an operating margin of 17.5%. The pressure from the CEO change and operational problems is assessed as a short-term overhang, but if THAI returns to full service and clears the baggage and cargo issues as planned, it will help limit the impact on profit, and the earnings trend should recover in line with the high season in the fourth quarter of 2026. The average target price from the IAA Consensus stands at 7.56 baht.

Prime Minister and Interior Minister Anutin Charnvirakul held talks with Wouter van Wersch, Executive Vice President for International Affairs at Airbus, and Bert Porteman, a representative of Airbus Thailand, on ways to upgrade and expand cooperation between Thailand and Airbus in the aviation industry, space technology, human resource development, and clean energy. The Prime Minister affirmed the policy of promoting the aviation industry and future industries, and asked Airbus to consider broadening cooperation to cover more areas by building on the cooperation models the company has with other countries and extending them to Thailand. On clean energy, the Prime Minister proposed that Airbus promote the use of sustainable aviation fuel, or SAF, produced in Thailand, using Thai raw materials and agricultural output as part of the production chain. In addition, Airbus plans to establish a Center of Excellence in Thailand as a hub for developing knowledge, technology, and personnel, linking Airbus's global network to Thailand. The Prime Minister also proposed expanding cooperation in space technology and security, building on existing cooperation with the Geo-Informatics and Space Technology Development Agency, or GISTDA, and Thaicom Public Company Limited, as well as discussing cooperation with Thai Airways International Public Company Limited to support the goal of pushing Thailand to become the region's aviation hub.

Research by Asia Plus Securities assesses that a water management megaproject with a combined value of 165,000 million baht will support the growth of the construction contracting sector over the medium to long term. The project aims to cut flood damage by about 16,930 million baht per year and reduce flooded area by 3.48 million rai. Construction is expected to begin in 2027 and take eight years. Among the stocks expected to benefit, Asia Plus names CK as its top pick with a target price of 24 baht on the prospect of winning work directly, while STECON carries a target price of 23 baht on expectations it will benefit from large project contracts. Also in the frame are UNIQ, which has opportunities from large project work, and ITD, which is involved in earthworks and drainage systems. In the construction materials group, SCC, SCCC and TPIPL stand to benefit from project demand for materials. Factors to watch include the project's funding sources, land expropriation, the timing of bidding, and contract signing, all of which will affect progress and the chances that construction companies win work from the project.

Bualuang Securities has raised its 2026 Brent crude oil price assumption to 94 US dollars per barrel from 85 dollars, and lifted its 2026 profit forecasts for PTT to 149 billion baht, up 9%, and for PTT Exploration and Production, or PTTEP, to 79 billion baht, up 8%. It noted that crude oil prices are still holding in a range of 90 to 100 dollars per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026 amid supply risks in the Middle East, after the volume of oil shut in production in the Persian Gulf rose from about 8.3 million barrels per day in July to more than 10 million barrels per day in August, while shipments through the Strait of Hormuz fell to 7.6 million barrels per day. However, for 2027, Bualuang Securities has cut its oil price view to 70 dollars per barrel on expectations of oversupply, estimating that supply will rise by an average of 8.6 million barrels per day, above global oil demand growth of about 2.5 million barrels per day. Bualuang Securities is maintaining a market-weight stance on the energy sector, picking PTT as its top pick with a buy rating and a target price of 48 baht, while keeping a hold rating on PTTEP with a target price of 168 baht.

KGI Securities said there is a growing risk that the United States will ban diesel exports, after US retail diesel prices surged past US$6.50 per gallon on supply disruptions caused by Middle East tensions and the Russia-Ukraine war. US officials indicated the government is considering measures to restrict diesel exports, though the format remains uncertain, ranging from a full export ban and partial caps to voluntary export reductions. Data from BCA Research dated September 24 showed US diesel exports hit a record 1.7 million barrels per day in August 2026, up from 1.1 million barrels per day in February 2026, and estimated that a full US export ban, combined with supply disruptions from the Strait of Hormuz crisis and the Russia-Ukraine war, would affect about 47% of global diesel exports. The US is the world's largest diesel exporter, accounting for roughly 16% of global diesel exports, with most shipments going to Europe and South America. The research team views this possibility as a positive factor for sentiment on Thai refinery stocks, namely SPRC, TOP, BCP, IRPC and PTTGC.

Kiatnakin Phatra Securities said in an analysis dated October 1, 2026, that over the next three to four years low-earth-orbit satellite services, especially Starlink, are unlikely to significantly affect the market share of ground-based telecommunications operators in ASEAN, due to network capacity constraints and prices that remain higher than terrestrial services. Starlink's monthly service fee in Malaysia is about 58% higher than comparable-speed ground broadband, and nearly four times higher in Vietnam. As for direct-to-device, or D2D, satellite-to-handset connectivity, Kiatnakin Phatra sees it serving more as a supplementary service than a replacement, with the potential to support average revenue per user, or ARPU, but over the longer term it will be necessary to watch competition from Starlink more closely, as network capacity will increase significantly by 2030 with the deployment of the Starship rocket and V3 satellites. Since SpaceX's initial public offering in mid-June 2026, about half of ASEAN telecom stocks under Bank of America's coverage have underperformed the market, which Kiatnakin Phatra attributes to factors other than concerns about LEO competition. Its top pick in the ASEAN communications sector is Advanced Info Service, or ADVANC, on the back of an appropriate dividend yield, alongside Globe Telecom, or GLO, Indosat-Hutchison, or ISAT, SingTel, and PT Telkom, or TLKM. Starlink currently operates in Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore and Vietnam, but has not yet launched in Thailand because of a rule limiting foreign shareholding in entities granted rights to use ground stations to no more than 49%. OneWeb has already offered fixed broadband services in Thailand since 2025, and Amazon LEO plans to launch services in Indonesia and Thailand in the future.

Kasikorn Securities states that Advice IT Infinite Public Company Limited, or ADVICE, is likely to post sales and gross margin in the third quarter of 2026 above target. The company expects third-quarter 2026 sales to grow more than 20% year on year, above its original target of 17% year on year, driven by strong demand across all product groups, with IT products expected to grow more than 10% year on year and Apple and Android products expected to grow in the double digits year on year. Gross margin is expected at 11.0–11.5%, above the company's original target of 10.5%, supported by margin gains in memory products, especially VGA graphics cards, whose prices have roughly doubled year on year. The research team estimates third-quarter 2026 profit at 120 million baht, up 84% year on year but down 12% quarter on quarter, bringing first-nine-month 2026 profit to 374 million baht, up 83% year on year, or 86.4% of the full-year 2026 profit forecast of 433 million baht. It maintains a Buy rating with a mid-2027 target price of 8.82 baht and sees an attractive re-entry point at 6.50 baht or below.

Asia Plus Securities, or ASPS, is advising investors to raise their cash allocation to 30-40% of their portfolios to reduce risk from volatility and wait for the right moment to accumulate fundamentally strong stocks. The recommendation comes amid pressure from the Persian Gulf situation, where the US Department of Defense is preparing to send another aircraft carrier along with more than 10,000 marines into the area if Donald Trump escalates his handling of Iran. That has pushed Brent crude to 102.3 US dollars per barrel. Meanwhile, European inflation in September came in higher than expected in several countries, with France at 3.0%, Spain at 4.9%, Italy at 4.1% and Germany at 3.3% year on year, driving overall eurozone inflation to 3.7% year on year. On the Thai side, the stock market saw net selling of 771 million US dollars, as 10-year bond yields worldwide rose by 0.20% to 1.50% over the past month, pressuring Thailand's market earnings yield gap down to 3.7% from 5.3% early in the year, while the baht weakened into a range of 35 to 37 baht per dollar. However, the weaker baht is a positive for three main business groups: exporters such as TU, ITC and CPF; the medical group such as BH, BDMS, BCH and PR9; and the tourism group such as AOT and CENTEL. In addition, the research team has selected five standout stocks for the day: AMAT01, MRVL06, KCE, SCC and CK. KCE is expected to see third and fourth quarter profits recover both quarter on quarter and year on year, benefiting from a shortage of PCB circuit boards. SCC drew a positive market response after excluding its olefins business, while CK benefits from accelerated disbursement and government project bidding, with third quarter results expected to mark the year's peak.

Shares of Thai Oil Public Company Limited, or TOP, rose 7.84% to 72.25 baht, up 5.25 baht, on heavy trading volume of 1.49281 billion baht. Krungsri Securities recommends Buy with a 2027 target price of 83 baht, viewing the company as a beneficiary of tight global refined oil supply, especially diesel, which supports a recovery in refining margins, or GRM. Since TOP's production mix is about 50% diesel, it benefits directly. The research team estimates that TOP's profit could see upside of about 47-92% from its previous forecast after the escalation of war conditions raised the likelihood that energy price and refining margin assumptions will be revised higher, with further upside possible if supply factors and refining margins remain strong. The stock valuation also remains attractive, with PBV at about 0.6-0.7 times, while the expected dividend yield is more than 3.5% per year.

Refinery stocks led by TOP and SPRC rose sharply today after China restricted exports of oil products, prompting the market to expect that supplies of refined fuels in Asia may tighten, particularly diesel and jet fuel. At 10:28 a.m., TOP stood at 71.50 baht, up 4.50 baht, or 6.72%, with trading value of 1.09 billion baht, while SPRC stood at 14.70 baht, up 0.70 baht, or 5.00%, with trading value of 287.21 million baht. Brent crude rose 29 cents, or 0.28%, to 102.60 dollars per barrel, and WTI rose 27 cents, or 0.29%, to 93.14 dollars per barrel, after China did not allow major refineries to export diesel, gasoline, and jet fuel to markets outside Hong Kong and Macau in October. Meanwhile, the United States is preparing to send a third aircraft carrier and additional troops of up to about 10,000 personnel to the Middle East, and has called on Germany and France to release diesel from emergency reserves, proposing that the European Union release a total of about 120 million barrels of diesel over the next six months.

Yuanta Securities said Ratch Group, or RATCH, has numerous investment opportunities awaiting clarity late this year. The RG power plant's units 1-2, with capacity of 1,470MW, have already seen their contracts expire in October 2025, while three remaining units totalling 2,175MW will expire in November 2027. The company is expected to have a chance to renew power purchase agreements to support conventional power plant capacity under the new PDP plan, which is expected to become clear in November 2026. If the contracts are not renewed, the company may shift to selling electricity to data center operators, with negotiations underway with five to six customers of no less than 300MW each, and capacity to serve data center customers of up to 1,400MW through leasing a total of 2,000 rai of land and long-term power supply of 10 to 15 years. Negotiations are expected to make progress after the type 9 electricity tariff for data centers becomes clear in October 2026. Meanwhile, the draft PDP 2026 plan adds 50GW of capacity over the first 11 years from 2027 to 2037, split into 24.3GW of solar, 14.5GW of solar with storage, 2.7GW of wind, 9.1GW of natural gas and 300MW of nuclear SMR. RATCH has an advantage in renewing PPAs for natural gas plants, with the RG plant's total 3,645MW, in which it holds 100%, expiring in 2027, and the RPCL plant's 1,400MW, in which it holds 41%, expiring in 2032. On the earnings outlook, third-quarter 2026 normal profit is preliminarily expected at 1.4 to 1.6 billion baht, growing quarter on quarter as the RG and Hin Kong power plants return to full operation after maintenance shutdowns of about 22 days and 21 days respectively, and as SG&A expenses fall seasonally, though profit will decline year on year from pressure over the PPA expiries of RG units 1-2. Yuanta raised its fair value to 46.25 baht per share using a new valuation method at a PER of 16.3 times, reflecting the opportunity to renew PPAs for the RG plant, projects under the new PDP plan, the auction of roughly 1,000MW of IPP capacity in Indonesia, and renewable energy investments abroad, implying 25.9% upside, and upgraded its recommendation from Trading to Buy.

The Thai General Insurance Association has welcomed the Cabinet's resolution approving in principle the establishment of a national catastrophe insurance system, with 11 non-life insurance companies joining the project alongside the association and the public sector. The scheme sets a total premium framework of 15,500 million baht, divided into 15,000 million baht for group residential insurance policies and 500 million baht for group accident insurance policies. The system will help provide coverage for approximately 30 million households nationwide. DBS Vickers Securities (Thailand) estimates this is positive news for the insurance industry, as a large pool of premiums worth about 15,500 million baht will enter the system, accounting for 5.3% of all non-life insurance premiums. In 2025, the industry recorded total direct premiums of 969,221 million baht, split into 676,436 million baht from life insurance and 292,785 million baht from non-life insurance. The scheme will also stimulate the reinsurance business, expand the future customer base for insurance, and drive the transition toward a sustainable Public-Private Partnership. The 11 participating companies are Bangkok Insurance, Krungthai Panich Insurance, Tokio Marine Safety Insurance (Thailand), Dhipaya Insurance, Thai Paiboon Insurance, Thaivivat Insurance, Falcon Insurance, Muang Thai Insurance, Viriyah Insurance, MSIG Insurance (Thailand), and I Care Insurance.

Krungsri Securities said the flood situation bears watching, with the risk of inundation from dam water releases as of October 1 holding steady from the previous day. Nationwide dam water levels stood at 81%, compared with the October 2021-2025 average of 80.4% and 92% on October 11. The western and eastern regions were highest at 96%, while the central region stood at 88%. The research team assessed risk area by area, citing the case of Amata City Industrial Estate in Chonburi province, where phases 6-9 were partially flooded, causing AMATA shares to swing wildly yesterday. Overall, however, the situation is expected to fall mainly under the scenario of flooding in riverside communities, similar to a normal year, and the risk of rain behind the dams during the short transition from the rainy season to winter in the October 5-8 period still needs monitoring. On the KSS Strategist View, even though the market is still waiting to assess those risks, the bright spot is that the SET has already priced in a 2.7% de-risking after the floods. It therefore maintains its view that the banking group, which was sold off on de-risking earlier, is the main group at 5.2% and looks interesting for re-accumulation, with a focus on KTB and KBANK.

Phillip Securities (Thailand) Public Company Limited estimates that Bumrungrad Hospital Public Company Limited, or BH, will have hospital revenue of approximately 6.75 billion baht in the third quarter of 2026, up 8.3% from the previous quarter and 4.0% from the same period last year, exceeding management's guidance of about 3% year-on-year revenue growth. International patient revenue is expected at 4.579 billion baht, up 10.7% quarter-on-quarter and 5.6% year-on-year, driven by an accelerating number of travelers from the Middle East to Thailand, with about 70,000 such tourists in September 2026, growing 18.8% year-on-year. Thai patient revenue is expected at 2.17 billion baht, up 8.3% quarter-on-quarter and 0.7% year-on-year. Core profit for the third quarter of 2026 is expected at 2.088 billion baht, up 10.5% quarter-on-quarter and 2.4% year-on-year, on total revenue of approximately 6.77 billion baht. The gross margin is expected to rise to 53.2% from 53.0% in the third quarter of 2025, and the EBITDA margin is expected at 41.4%, up from 40.9% in the same period last year. Phillip views the third quarter of 2026 as the best quarter of the year, with the second quarter of 2026 likely marking the bottom of performance. Core profit for the nine months of 2026 is expected at approximately 5.759 billion baht, up 2.3% year-on-year, representing 72.7% of the full-year profit forecast. It maintains a buy recommendation on BH with a year-end 2026 target price of 200 baht per share. The business expansion plan continues with the opening of a hospital in Phuket in two phases. The first phase, spanning years one to five, or approximately the second half of 2027 to 2032, will gradually open 120 beds, and the second phase, spanning years six to ten, or approximately 2032 to 2037, will add another 92 beds, for a total of 212 beds, following a hub-and-spoke model. Factors to monitor include the slow recovery in domestic purchasing power and the conflict situation in the Middle East, which may affect the number of international patients and BH's revenue trend going forward.

Chinese refineries have suspended exports of refined oil products for October 2026 as China seeks to shore up its domestic oil market, according to sources cited by Dao Securities. China entered a week-long holiday last Thursday and has not yet approved major refineries in the world's largest refining hub to export fuel products to regions other than Hong Kong and Macau for October 2026. Previously, China restricted fuel exports in March 2026 after conflict in Iran disrupted crude oil supply from the Middle East, before easing measures in July and managing diesel, gasoline and jet fuel shipments on a monthly basis. It remains unclear whether China will resume allowing refineries to export goods after the holiday ends on October 7, 2026, and this may depend on domestic fuel inventory levels and refinery capacity. Meanwhile, China's National Development and Reform Commission has not yet responded to requests for comment due to the public holiday. The move is seen as positive for refineries in the short term, as export restrictions will help support product price spreads and crude oil prices. For the overall refinery business outlook in the third quarter of 2026, refineries as a group are expected to report earnings that continue to grow year on year but soften quarter on quarter, tracking market and base refining margins that benefit from strong crack spreads but are offset by high freight costs and refinery price cuts. The investment rating for the energy sector remains at market weight, and upstream energy stock PTTEP remains favored with a target price of 180.00 baht, supported by expectations that average oil selling prices will hold at high levels in the third quarter of 2026.

InnovestX Securities Company Limited assesses that Thailand's financial markets will remain volatile throughout the fourth quarter of 2026, pressured by interest rate hikes from major central banks worldwide. Suthichai Koomworachai, Head of Investment Strategy & Research, said there are seven signals to watch: crude oil prices, government bond yields, public debt burdens, the US election, natural disasters and the El Niño phenomenon, demand for AI technology, and the earnings of listed companies. Dr. Piyasak Manasant, Head of Economic Research, estimates the impact of flooding on the economy, especially in Bangkok, at approximately 21,000 million baht, split into about 19,000 million baht in the third quarter of 2026 and another approximately 1,800 million baht in the fourth quarter of 2026, representing pressure on GDP of about -0.11%. However, there is a positive factor from the extension of the "Thai Chuay Thai Plus Phase 2" program, which supports GDP by about +0.08%, leaving the net impact at only about -0.03%. GDP is expected to grow 2.0% both this year and next year. Meanwhile, Sittichai Duangrattanachaya, Head of Investment Strategy, views this round of flooding as only a short-term event and expects that fund flows, which saw outflows of about 30,000 million baht over the past two weeks, will return to buy after the waters recede. He gives a suitable entry point of 1,500 to 1,550 points, maintains this year's SET target at 1,700 points, and sets next year's target at 1,715 points. Top picks for the fourth quarter of 2026 include AMATA with a target price of 44 baht, CENTEL with a target price of 47 baht, CRC with a target price of 31 baht, KTB with a target price of 49 baht, and PR9 with a target price of 23 baht.

North East Rubber Public Company Limited, or NER, is confident that revenue in 2026 will reach 30 billion baht, in line with its target, driven by higher natural rubber prices and tight global natural rubber supply caused by weather impacts. Chuwit Jungtanasomboon, Chief Executive Officer of NER, said demand for rubber from major tire makers in the Chinese and Indian markets and other key automobile-producing countries continues to have momentum. Growth in the automotive and electric vehicle, or EV, industries, along with the European Union's EUDR environmental regulations, are factors supporting natural rubber demand over the long term. The company estimates that in the third quarter of 2026, higher average selling prices will help support revenue, even though sales volume will be affected by raw material tightness. It will manage production across its plants in line with available raw material volumes, and will continue to monitor rubber price trends in the final stretch of 2026. If supply remains tight and demand from the tire industry keeps its momentum, there is an opportunity to further support NER's selling prices and business.

Interlink Telecom Public Company Limited, or ITEL, is preparing to join the bidding for smart grid power network projects after Thailand's Power Development Plan, or PDP 2026, opened the way for increased investment in the power grid. Dr. Nattanai Anantaramporn, the company's Chief Executive Officer, said the company already has expertise in communications network systems and expects business direction in the third quarter of 2026 to hold steady near the level of the second quarter of 2026, with its current backlog at 3.9 billion baht. It is maintaining its full-year 2026 revenue target of 3.6 billion baht and plans to bid for new work from government agencies and other sources continuously through the remainder of the year. Meanwhile, the Secretary-General of the Federation of Thai Industries, or FTI, estimates that investment in grid and power systems to support renewable energy, energy storage, electricity, electric vehicles and data centers could total around 500 billion baht within five years. Krungsri Securities Public Company Limited expects profit in 2027 to grow outstandingly from 2026, at around 65 million baht, driven by recognition of revenue from SI projects through its 80 percent stake in a joint venture with THCOM and TKC. It therefore sets a target price for ITEL shares at around 2.00 baht and gives a buy recommendation.

Analysts at Finansia Syrus Securities estimate that the PDP 2026 plan will create significant upside for GULF shares. They expect EGAT to open bidding for new renewable energy projects of about 10 gigawatts next year, and GULF has a chance to secure as much as a 40% share, or 4 gigawatts, of the solar projects expected to be auctioned. Under a feed-in tariff of 2.16 baht per kilowatt-hour, investment is estimated at 25 to 30 million baht per megawatt, with an IRR of 12%. The new capacity could add about 10 baht per share to GULF's value. The research team therefore maintains its buy recommendation and raises its target price to 89.50 baht per share to reflect the opportunity to add capacity from auctions under the new PDP, as well as the acquisition of a 50% stake in solar and wind projects from GUNKUL, representing total equity-accounted capacity of 339.5 megawatts. The acquired projects are estimated to have a combined net present value of about 9.7 billion baht, based on a discounted cash flow valuation with a WACC of 5.5%, adding roughly 0.5 baht per share. The positive view is also supported by a low-risk profit structure from long-term power purchase agreements, strong cash flow from the digital business, and a solid financial position, with a net interest-bearing debt to equity ratio of only 1.06 times.

Tisco Securities has upgraded Thai Foods Group, or TFG, to "BUY" with a rolled-over 2027 target price of 12.70 baht, based on a PER of 9 times, or the sector average plus 0.5 standard deviations, up from 7.4 times previously. It also raised its 2026-2027 profit forecasts by 3% and 8% respectively, citing a retail business growing faster than expected and recovering pork and chicken prices, and said it believes earnings passed their bottom in the second quarter of 2026. ASL Securities, meanwhile, gave a "BUY" rating with a 2027 forecast target price of 12.50 baht, noting that the shift to market-driven retail is an important new S-curve. TFG's total revenue rose from about 34 billion baht in 2021 to 72 billion baht in 2025, an average growth rate of roughly 16% a year, and in 2026 the company aims to open another 260 branches, bringing the total to 875 branches by year-end, after opening 133 branches in the first half, or 51% of the full-year target. ASL estimates 2026 net profit at about 7 billion baht, down 5.5% from the previous year, while total revenue still grows to roughly 76 billion baht, up 5.5%, and it estimates ROE at about 33% and dividend yield at 6.6%, compared with sector averages of 16.14% and 4.4% respectively.

Trinity Securities estimates that Thai Eastern Group Holdings, or TEGH, still has continued supporting factors in the second half of 2026, maintaining its net profit forecast for 2026 at 560 million baht, up 5% from the previous year. In the rubber business, which is the most prominent factor, Trinity expects rubber sales volume in the third quarter of 2026 at approximately 60,000-70,000 tonnes, flat from the second quarter of 2026 but growing strongly compared with the same period last year. Meanwhile, block rubber selling prices are expected to rise to approximately 75-80 baht per kilogram, from an average selling price of about 70 baht per kilogram in the second quarter of 2026, supported by demand for block rubber in the Indian market after the Indian government announced an exemption on rubber import taxes, lower rubber output due to El Nino conditions, and higher crude oil prices, which pushed synthetic rubber prices up. For the crude palm oil business, Trinity estimates that sales volume in the third quarter of 2026 may slow seasonally, but prices still have supporting factors from demand for palm oil to increase the biodiesel blending ratio, and it expects sales volume to recover in the fourth quarter of 2026. The company itself is pressing ahead with increasing the share of EUDR-standard rubber products after the direction of the European Union's regulatory enforcement became clearer, as well as improving the efficiency of its palm business by repairing machinery and installing additional boilers and sterilizers, which is expected to help increase crude palm oil production capacity by about 50% within this year. As for the phase 2 biogas production capacity expansion project, it is under review of technology and budget, with the completion date adjusted to the second quarter of 2027.

Analysts at InnovestX Securities estimate that the sustainable aviation fuel business, or SAF, will be an additional profit driver for BCP. In the second quarter of 2026, the SAF business generated EBITDA of about 1 billion baht, despite operating for less than 40 days, or 3.8% of the group's total EBITDA. SAF EBITDA is expected to rise to 2.5-2.7 billion baht in the third quarter of 2026, driven by full-quarter recognition of operating results and a healthy SAF-UCO price spread. For the full year 2026, SAF EBITDA is expected to exceed 6.2 billion baht, or about 5% of forecast EBITDA, and to increase to 8 billion baht in 2027, or about 10%, under the assumption of a SAF-UCO price spread of 1,250 dollars per tonne. The brokerage maintains its OUTPERFORM recommendation with a mid-2027 target price of 75 baht.

The analyst team at Krungsri Securities has raised its recommendation on the electronic components sector to Bullish from Neutral, expecting every company in the group to post stronger earnings in the third quarter of 2026 than in the second quarter, with momentum continuing through the fourth quarter of 2026 and into 2027. The brokerage expects the industry's combined profit to grow 52% in 2027, accelerating from 42% in 2026, driven by demand for both AI-related and non-AI products. It recommends buying all three stocks under coverage: DELTA with a target price of 320 baht and KCE with a target price of 97 baht, naming them top picks on the theme of product price increases, which should deliver the strongest net profit per share growth in 2027. DELTA is expected to post profit growth of 51% in 2027, up from 42% in 2026, while KCE is seen growing from 77% in 2026 to 82% in 2027, and HANA from 24% in 2026 to 45% in 2027. The brokerage also raised its earnings forecasts for KCE by 5% for 2026 and by 28% for 2027 to reflect its positive view that KCE is entering a sustained cycle of product price increases, including one more price increase in October 2026 on top of the two previously expected in July 2026 and January 2027. Among non-AI stocks, it still prefers KCE over HANA because KCE operates further upstream and owns its own laminate factory, giving it better control over raw material costs.

GPSC appears to be entering a period of earnings recovery, posting a net profit of 1.82 billion baht in the second quarter of 2026, up 6% QoQ but down 10% YoY. The main drivers were GHECO-One returning to operation after a planned outage, improved availability at Glow IPP, higher power sales volumes at HHPC, and a recovery in demand from industrial customers. SPP margins, however, remained under pressure as gas costs rose faster than the Ft tariff. First-half 2026 results overall reflected better operating efficiency, with EBITDA margin rising to 25% and net profit up 12% YoY to 3.54 billion baht. The second half of 2026 is expected to continue growing on the high season for hydropower plants in Laos and the peak season for the CFXD wind power plant in Taiwan in the fourth quarter of 2026. The EBITDA Uplift Program has already delivered 571 million baht of benefits in the first half of 2026 and targets around 1 billion baht for the full year 2026. The company aims to expand equity capacity from 7.4 GW to 13.7 GW by 2030, while raising the share of renewables and reducing SPP volatility by increasing gas-linked contracts to more than 70%. It targets winning more than 25% of the capacity up for auction under PDP2026, covering renewable, ESS and conventional power, alongside opportunities from direct PPAs, under which it aims to supply around 2 GW of renewable power to corporate customers by 2030. It currently has demand from data centers under discussion and study amounting to as much as 750 MW, and is studying sites with four partners totalling more than 1,000 MW.