United States 30 Year Bond Yield

Gold futures on the New York market closed lower on Friday, October 2, with COMEX December-delivery gold falling $40.00, or 0.95%, to settle at $4,162.30 an ounce, pressured by the dollar's appreciation this week and by 10-year and 30-year U.S. Treasury yields, which surged on Thursday to their highest levels since 2002. Early in the session, gold prices had risen more than 1% on news of a sharp slowdown in U.S. employment figures, after the U.S. Labor Department reported that nonfarm payrolls rose by only 29,000 in September, far below the 90,000 economists had expected, while the August figure was revised down to an increase of 133,000 from the previously reported 162,000. Analysts assess that gold's direction over the coming months will depend on the stance of the U.S. central bank and how much weakness in the labor market it is willing to accept, while the Fed continues to give priority to controlling inflation. Since the war between the United States, Israel and Iran began in late February, gold prices have fallen by more than 20%, as investors worry that war-driven inflation will force the Fed to keep interest rates high for longer. However, the latest inflation data came in below expectations, and the stance of at least two senior Fed officials who voted against a rate hike in October has led investors to begin expecting the Fed to hold rates steady at its meeting late this month, consistent with data from the CME FedWatch Tool showing that investors now assign only a 22% probability to a Fed rate hike this month, down sharply from 70% early in the week.

Asian stock markets opened lower today as investors worried that elevated oil prices could accelerate inflation and force central banks to keep interest rates high for an extended period. Rising US government bond yields, which have climbed to multi-year highs, also continued to weigh on risk assets. Japan's Nikkei index opened down 0.93% at 68,313.46 points, while South Korea's composite index opened down 0.47% at 6,938.27 points. The yield on 10-year US government bonds jumped to 5.327%, the highest level since April 2002, while the yield on 30-year US government bonds climbed to 5.678%, a 24-year high. Lorie Logan, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, said US inflation remains above the Fed's annual target and that the Fed still needs to raise interest rates significantly. However, surging bond yields may help bring inflation under control, which would reduce the need for more restrictive monetary policy. In addition, the US government has told Germany and France to release emergency diesel reserves to help lower soaring global fuel prices, warning that without action the United States could consider banning exports of US diesel. Meanwhile, China announced it will suspend exports of oil products in October amid concerns about domestic stockpiles.

US stock markets closed mixed, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average ending at 50,906.05 points, down 443.87 points or 0.86%, and the S&P 500 closing at 7,651.54 points, down 19.30 points or 0.25%, pressured by elevated oil prices and bond yields. The Nasdaq closed at 26,861.06 points, up 63.52 points or 0.24%, supported by buying in technology stocks. Headline PCE for August rose 3.4% year on year, below market expectations of 3.7%, while Core PCE rose 3.0% year on year, below expectations of 3.3%. The yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds rose above 5.3% and the 30-year yield above 5.6%. Investors are therefore watching September Nonfarm Payrolls, which the market expects to rise by 98,000 positions, compared with 162,000 in August, with the unemployment rate forecast at 4.1%. In European markets, the STOXX Europe 600 closed at 634.89 points, down 3.19 points or 0.50%, with bank stocks down 0.8% and insurance stocks down 1.4%. The DAX closed at 25,199.19 points, down 200.02 points or 0.79%, and the CAC 40 closed at 7,964.51 points, down 71.36 points or 0.89%, while the FTSE 100 closed at 10,606.00 points, down 30.71 points or 0.29%. In Asian markets, the Nikkei 225 opened at 67,106.52 points, up 352.80 points or 0.53%, boosted by buying in large technology stocks, while the KOSPI fell 0.8% and the S&P/ASX 200 dropped 1.09%. The Shanghai Composite and the Hang Seng Index were closed for China's National Day holiday. Thailand's stock market is expected to trade in a volatile and consolidating range, with sentiment pressured by surging US bond yields and concerns over continued foreign fund outflows. The stock to watch today is THAI, after the cancellation or rescheduling of domestic and international flights between October 1 and 3, 2026, along with efforts to clear backlogged baggage at Suvarnabhumi Airport, which could weigh on confidence and the company's short-term operations.

U.S. stock futures opened October in the green, with the Dow up 179 points, the Nasdaq up 169 and the S&P 500 up 32 points, helped by Brent crude holding at $100 per barrel and WTI near $90 per barrel. Bond yields continued to climb, with the 10-year at 5.285%, the 2-year at 4.858% and the 30-year at 5.637%, keeping mortgage rates elevated. Initial jobless claims came in at 197K last week, down 3K from expectations and 1K from the upwardly revised prior week, marking the third-straight sub-100K jobless claims report. Continuing claims reached a new near-term low of 1.701 million, down 11K month over month and below the downwardly revised 1.712 million from the previous week, remaining near 60-year lows for a third straight week. Later this morning, September Manufacturing PMI is expected to rise 3.1% on the S&P print and 0.3 points for ISM, while August Construction Spending is expected to rebound 0.1% after a 0.5% decline a month ago.

The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note surged to its highest level since 2002 amid a global bond selloff, after oil prices climbed on Middle East war tensions, stoking inflation concerns and raising expectations that central banks worldwide may need to hike interest rates further. The US 10-year bond yield rose as much as 6 basis points to 5.34% on Thursday, breaching its previous peak set in 2007. Earlier in the week, the US 30-year bond yield also jumped to a 24-year high. Data from Bloomberg indices showed that global government bonds just suffered their worst quarter since 2024, while Thursday's selloff pushed the UK 30-year government bond yield to 6% for the first time since 1998. Some analysts and investors believe US bond yields could also reach that level. Steven Barrow of Standard Bank Advisory said the rise in government bond yields is a long-term structural development, with financial markets adjusting to a New Normal of higher yield levels. The market is now watching Friday's US nonfarm payrolls report, with a Bloomberg survey of analysts forecasting a gain of 85,000 jobs in September. Investors are also tracking remarks from several Fed officials, including Fed Governor Chris Waller. The market currently expects the Fed to raise rates four more times, by 0.25% each, by the end of 2027.

The yield on the 30-year US Treasury bond climbed to its highest level since 2002, breaking through 5.61% on Tuesday, September 29, rising for a sixth consecutive day amid intensifying selling pressure in global bond markets worth roughly 32 trillion dollars, driven by inflation concerns, elevated oil prices, and a heavy volume of corporate debt issuance. Michael Cloherty, head of US rates strategy at CIBC Capital Markets, said that while long-term bond yields look attractive in value terms compared with past levels, the market has yet to see clear large-scale buying step in to support them. Part of the inflation pressure stems from high oil prices caused by the war in the Middle East, prompting investors to increase bets that several central banks, including the Fed, may need to raise interest rates further. However, those expectations eased somewhat after John Williams, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, said another increase in the target rate range may be appropriate late this year, sending the 2-year US Treasury yield down by as much as 0.05% before moving around 4.89%, while the 10-year yield stood at about 5.25%, near its highest since 2007, and US Treasuries have returned a total of negative 2.6% since the start of this year, compared with a gain of 6.3% last year. Pressure is also coming from a wave of corporate bond issuance, with Paramount Skydance Corp. beginning to offer investment-grade notes as a key part of a 52 billion dollar financing package for its acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery; the company plans to raise about 32 billion dollars through bond sales, and Monty Gandhi, a rates strategist at SMBC, said the offering ranks as the fifth-largest investment-grade bond deal ever.

The US dollar strengthened against major currencies in New York foreign exchange trading on Tuesday, September 29, after US Treasury yields surged to multi-year highs. The dollar index rose 0.17% to 101.372, while the 30-year bond yield jumped to 5.6206%, the highest level since June 2002, and the 10-year bond yield climbed to 5.293%, the highest since June 2007. New York Fed President John Williams said the Fed still has time to assess data before deciding on another rate hike, but Fed Governor Michael Barr and Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee continued to signal support for tighter monetary policy. Investors are watching the personal consumption expenditures price index, or PCE, due today, with analysts expecting headline PCE to rise 3.7% in August year on year and core PCE to rise 3.4%. Nonfarm payrolls, due Friday, October 2, are expected to increase by 98,000 in September after rising 162,000 in August, and the September unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 4.1%. In the latest data, the Conference Board's US consumer confidence index fell 6.7 points to 81.9 in September, below analysts' expectations of 89.0, and JOLTS job openings fell by 256,000 to 7.079 million in August, below the forecast of 7.225 million.

In New York financial and bond market trading on the 29th, the 30-year US Treasury yield briefly rose into the 5.62% range, reaching its highest level in about 24 years since June 2002, according to Reuters. Concerns over accelerating inflation and a widening fiscal deficit are weighing on the bond market. Amid the turmoil in the Iran situation, worries over rising energy prices and fiscal expansion risks have intensified in various countries, adding pressure that is prompting bond selling. Massive corporate bond issuance by artificial intelligence-related companies is also pressuring the government bond market.

The yield on the 30-year US Treasury bond climbed to a 24-year high today amid inflation concerns and expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate hikes. The 30-year yield, which typically responds to geopolitical risk, jumped to 5.613%, its highest level since 2002. Meanwhile, the 10-year yield, the main benchmark for setting rates on mortgages, auto loans and credit card debt, rose to 5.285%. The 2-year yield, which tends to move in line with the Fed's policy rate decisions, was little changed at 4.922%. The latest CME Group FedWatch Tool indicates that investors are pricing in a 70.3% probability that the Fed will raise rates at its October meeting and a 94.9% probability of a hike at the December meeting. Investors are watching several economic data releases this week, especially the August personal consumption expenditures price index, an inflation gauge the Fed prioritizes, due on Wednesday. Analysts expect headline PCE to rise 3.7% year on year and 0.4% month on month, while core PCE is expected to rise 3.4% year on year and 0.3% month on month. The US Labor Department will release September nonfarm payrolls on Friday, October 2, with analysts expecting job growth of 98,000, down from 162,000 in August, and the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.1%.

Market strategist Ed Yardeni is blaming the unwinding of the Japanese yen carry trade for a global bond market rout and the return of the bond vigilantes. Yardeni dismissed the idea that surging global bond yields are solely the result of inflation fears tied to Middle Eastern conflicts and rising oil prices, noting that U.S. breakeven inflation rates remain surprisingly subdued. Instead, he pointed to the Bank of Japan raising its policy rate and blowing up the highly lucrative yen carry trade, which for years let institutional investors borrow yen at rock-bottom rates and buy higher-yielding assets worldwide, particularly U.S. Treasuries and other government debt. That artificial demand, he said, allowed governments to run massive budget deficits without their borrowing costs spiking, and the vulnerability was laid bare in the summer of 2024 when the BOJ raised rates just as U.S. economic data fueled expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, sparking a frantic automated unwinding and a cross-asset global selloff in early August 2024. Earlier on Tuesday, the U.S. 30-year Treasury yield jumped to its highest level since 2002, underscoring how far borrowing costs have climbed at the far end of the curve.

Asian stock markets opened lower this morning amid concerns that rising oil prices, driven by tensions between the United States and Iran, will add to inflation pressure and keep interest rates elevated. Japan's Nikkei index opened down 0.5% at 65,557.99 points, and South Korea's composite index opened down 0.7% at 6,844.41 points. Meanwhile, gold prices fell more than 3%, dropping below the $4,200 level to hit their lowest in more than seven weeks. COMEX December gold futures fell $152.80, or 3.54%, to close at $4,168.40 an ounce. The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds jumped past 5.2% to 5.261%, while the 30-year yield stood at 5.571%. President Donald Trump said the White House is still considering a ban on diesel exports. Separately, Reuters reported, citing sources, that Qatari mediators may hold separate talks with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi in New York and with the U.S. side on Monday or Tuesday. In addition, a federal court jury ruled that Apple must pay more than $5.7 billion, or more than 191 billion baht, to Taction Technology Inc for infringing two of the company's patents.

The US dollar strengthened against major currencies in trading on the New York foreign exchange market on Monday, September 28, as rising oil prices led the market to expect that the US central bank may raise interest rates further to curb inflation. The dollar index rose 0.22% to 101.197, while the US dollar strengthened against the yen to 157.40 yen from 157.13 yen on Friday, and the euro weakened against the US dollar to 1.1368 dollars from 1.1399 dollars. Crude oil prices surged about 3% after President Donald Trump rejected Iran's conditional proposal regarding the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, before paring gains later. As a result, the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds jumped above 5.2% to 5.261%, and the 30-year yield reached 5.571%. Several Fed officials signaled support for further rate hikes, with Lisa Cook, a member of the Fed's Board of Governors, saying on Monday that she expects inflationary pressures to continue rising in the coming months due to demand related to artificial intelligence technology and higher oil prices. Meanwhile, the CME FedWatch tool indicated that investors priced in a 70.3% probability that the Fed will raise interest rates by another 0.25% at its October meeting, up from 57.6% last week and 17.7% last month. Analysts expect the September nonfarm payrolls figure, to be released on Friday, October 2, to show an increase of 98,000 jobs, after a gain of 162,000 in August, and expect the September unemployment rate to hold steady at 4.1%.

U.S. stocks fell Monday after President Donald Trump rejected an Iranian proposal for a seven-day truce, sending oil prices higher and Treasury yields climbing. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell about 0.7%, the S&P 500 lost roughly 0.8% and the Nasdaq Composite dropped about 1% in late-morning trading, with communication services leading sector declines while energy stocks gained on higher crude. Crude prices jumped roughly 3%, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield climbed to around 5.27% and the 30-year yield approached 5.57%, as traders priced roughly a 70% probability of another quarter-point Fed increase in October, according to CME data cited by Reuters. Nvidia gained more than 2% after announcing a $150 billion increase to its share-repurchase authorization, while Arm Holdings dropped more than 8%. The Wall Street Journal separately reported that Trump expects renewed strikes against Iran after the November midterm elections.

Traders are piling into options tied to fixed-income ETFs at a record pace as yields on 10-year and 30-year Treasuries sit at the highest in two decades. Options trading volume on BlackRock Inc.'s iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF, ticker TLT, is soaring, with the 20-day average hitting the highest level ever for the exchange-traded fund, while open interest has more than doubled over the past year and is closing in on the record of 13.55 million contracts reached prior to monthly expiration last week. Implied volatility and the premium for bearish puts on TLT have jumped to the highest since late March as investors pay up for protection against, or for wagers on, higher yields. The spike in options volumes over the last week has extended to BlackRock's iShares iBoxx $ Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF, LQD, and the firm's iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF, HYG. Steve Laipply, global co-head of BlackRock's iShares Fixed Income ETFs, said options on those exposures are becoming increasingly popular because they provide access to exposures that would be difficult to replicate efficiently in the underlying bond market, and Alex Kosoglyadov, head of flow equity derivative sales at Nomura Holdings, said traditional equity investors are starting to look more and more at these rate products.

In the US Treasury market on the 28th, the 30-year bond yield at one point reached its highest level since mid-May 2004, and the 10-year yield also at one point hit its highest level since mid-June 2007. After US President Trump stated on the 26th that he had rejected Iran's proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and end the fighting in the Middle East, US crude oil futures rose about 2%, heightening concerns over prolonged inflation and additional interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. According to CME's FedWatch, the probability that the market has priced in for the Fed to implement an additional 25 basis point rate hike in October rose to 68%, up from 64% on the 25th, and expectations for an additional rate hike in December also strengthened. Lawrence Gillum, chief fixed income strategist at LPL Financial, pointed out that as long as uncertainty over the conflict with Iran remains, upward pressure on bond yields is likely to continue, and said higher crude oil prices will feed through to future inflation indicators. Both the 30-year and 10-year bond yields later pared their gains.

German 10-year Bund yields held steady at 3.624% on Monday, consolidating near multi-year highs after capping a seventh consecutive weekly advance, the longest stretch of weekly gains since 2022. The policy-sensitive two-year Schatz yield was similarly flat at 3.310%, just below its 2023 peaks. The pause comes as Brent crude holds above $105 a barrel and persistent deficits in European natural gas storage reignite cost-push inflation fears, with money markets now discounting roughly 100 basis points of additional rate increases by late 2027. Heavy corporate and sovereign debt issuance is also forcing yields higher across the curve as allocators demand elevated risk premia. Across the Atlantic, U.S. Treasuries paused near record peaks after the 10-year yield touched 5.18% and the 30-year reached 5.47%, its highest since 2004, with desks watching upcoming U.S. September labor data and August PCE inflation, while the Reserve Bank of Australia is poised to resume tightening and flash September Eurozone CPI prints are seen backing further ECB hikes.

U.S. Durable Goods Orders for August came in at 0.0%, beating expectations of a -0.3% decline, while the Non-Defense, ex-aircraft proxy for business spending surged to +1.6%, more than triple the +0.5% analysts had expected. The report followed an unrevised +1.1% gain in July, with ex-transportation orders easing to +0.3% from +0.7% and shipments improving to -0.2% from -0.9%. The data landed as bond yields climbed to multi-decade highs, with the 30-year yield at +5.480%, the 10-year at +5.188% and the 2-year at +4.906%. Pre-market futures were higher, with the Dow up +111 points, the Nasdaq up +110 and the S&P 500 up +17, helped by lower oil prices at $92 per barrel on WTI and $104 per barrel on Brent crude. Attention now turns to the final read on the University of Michigan Consumer Survey, whose preliminary reading fell to 47.8 from 51.7, and to next week's Jobs Week data, with September non-farm payrolls expected at +162K and ADP private-sector payrolls at +38K.

The yield on Japan's 10-year government bond jumped to 3.115% today, its highest level since August 1996. Long-term government bond yields, which move inversely to bond prices, climbed on inflation concerns driven by surging crude oil prices, as well as the rise in U.S. Treasury yields last Thursday. Japan's 10-year government bond yield closed at 3.075% that day, while the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield jumped to 5.225%, its highest level since 2007, and the 30-year Treasury yield climbed to 5.502%. U.S. Treasuries came under heavy selling pressure amid expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates again, after having just raised them by 0.25% at its meeting on September 16. Most recently, the CME Group's FedWatch Tool indicates that investors are pricing in a 69% probability that the Fed will raise rates by 0.25% to 4.00-4.25% at its October meeting, up from 55.4% a week earlier, and a 50.3% probability that the Fed will raise rates by another 0.25% to 4.25-4.50% at its December meeting, up from 41.7% a week earlier.

The US 30-year Treasury yield rose on the 24th to briefly edge above 5.45%, marking its highest level in more than 20 years, since 2004. Selling is intensifying as investors demand higher yields to hold government debt, driven by solid economic growth, high levels of debt, and rising energy prices that are further stoking inflation concerns. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield stands at 5.158%. The US 30-year fixed mortgage rate has risen by one percentage point compared with before the war and now sits at 7%, its highest level in roughly two years, with mortgage rates tracking Treasury yields. Amid mounting concerns over soaring energy prices from the Iran war and government spending, the bond market has been under pressure for months, with yields reaching multi-decade highs. Chris Sikluna, head of economic research at Daiwa Capital Markets, said: "It is clear that the higher rates go, the worse the overall outlook becomes. US mortgage rates will be higher, and the federal government's debt interest burden will grow even larger."

BlackRock chief investment officer of global fixed income Rick Rieder said the bond market sell-off is "not a crisis but an eye-opener," warning that investors need to think about it. Rieder, who was among the finalists for the Fed chair role that ended up going to Kevin Warsh, made the comments on Yahoo Finance's Sozzi Unleashed. The 10-year Treasury yield climbed as high as 5.12% on Wednesday, its highest level since 2007, while the 30-year Treasury yield touched 5.4%, its highest since 2004, and the 5-year yield also jumped to a 2007 high. The move higher in yields came as oil prices advanced and business activity data came in hotter than expected, fueling concerns about further Fed rate hikes. New York Federal Reserve president John Williams said Thursday it was reasonable to think the Fed may need to raise interest rates again before year-end to corral inflation, echoing Federal Reserve governor Michael Barr's comments on Wednesday that additional rate hikes would be needed.

The yield on the 30-year U.S. Treasury bond surged to 5.440%, its highest level since 2004, or in 22 years, amid expectations of interest rate hikes by the U.S. Federal Reserve. Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury yield, the main benchmark for setting rates on mortgages, auto loans and credit card debt, climbed to 5.133%, its highest since July 2007. The 2-year Treasury yield, which tends to move in line with the Fed's policy rate decisions, remained near its highest level since 2023. Investors are increasingly betting that the Fed will raise rates two more times this year, following the surge in oil prices and U.S. Treasury yields. Most recently, the CME Group's FedWatch Tool indicated that investors assign a 66.4% probability to the Fed raising rates by 0.25% to 4.00-4.25% at its October meeting, up from 55.4% a week earlier, and a 50.3% probability to another 0.25% increase to 4.25-4.50% at the December meeting, up from 41.7% a week earlier. The Fed's monetary policy committee, the FOMC, voted unanimously 12-0 to raise short-term rates by 0.25% to 3.75-4.00% at its September 16 meeting, in line with market expectations, marking the first increase in more than three years, or since July 2023. Since then, the Fed has cut rates six times, by a total of 1.75%. The Dot Plot report, which shows Fed officials' projections, indicated that 16 of 18 officials expect one more rate hike this year. West Texas Intermediate crude rose above 93 dollars a barrel today, while Brent crude surged past 105 dollars a barrel. Fed Governor Michael Barr said he expects the Fed will need to keep raising rates to control inflation, noting that the labor market and economic growth remain strong, but inflation is still above the Fed's 2% target and there is no clear sign it will return to target within a reasonable timeframe. He added that risks to achieving the inflation target have increased, while risks to the labor market have diminished. Barr made these remarks as S&P Global reported that the preliminary composite Purchasing Managers' Index for U.S. manufacturing and services rose to 58.4 in September, a 62-month high, from 56.0 in August. At the same time, price pressures increased significantly, reaching their highest level since October 2022.

The Dow futures fell 122 points, or 0.24%, to 51,751 points at 8:10 p.m. Thailand time, pressured by the rebound in oil prices and U.S. government bond yields, while investors increased their expectations for interest rate hikes by the U.S. Federal Reserve. The latest FedWatch Tool from CME Group indicates that investors now assign a 66.4% probability that the Fed will raise rates by 0.25% to a range of 4.00-4.25% at its October meeting, up from 55.4% last week, and a 50.3% probability that the Fed will raise rates by another 0.25% to a range of 4.25-4.50% at its December meeting, up from 41.7%. The Dot Plot report shows that 16 of the Fed's 18 officials expect one more rate hike this year. West Texas Intermediate crude rose above 93 dollars per barrel, and Brent crude surged past 105 dollars per barrel, while the yield on 30-year U.S. government bonds climbed to its highest level in 22 years. Meanwhile, the New York Stock Exchange confirmed that Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul will ring the Opening Bell at the NYSE today, September 24, at 9:26 a.m. U.S. time, which corresponds to 8:26 p.m. Thailand time. Anutin is the third Thai prime minister to be honored with ringing the bell at the NYSE, following Abhisit Vejjajiva, who rang the closing bell on September 23, 2009, and Srettha Thavisin, who rang the opening bell on September 22, 2023.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent revealed yesterday that the US and China reached an agreement to extend their trade truce by another 2 months, until January 10, 2027. The original trade truce, which lasted one year and was central to easing tensions between the two countries, had been due to expire on November 10, 2026. Meanwhile, Politico reported, citing five sources, that President Donald Trump's administration is preparing a plan to ban diesel exports for 90 days to lower domestic energy prices, which are hurting Republicans ahead of the midterm elections on November 3. President Trump said he supports the idea of such a diesel export ban. Separately, S&P Global revealed that the preliminary composite purchasing managers' index for US manufacturing and services rose to 58.4 in September, the highest level in 62 months, up from 56.0 in August. As a result, the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds surged past 5%, hitting a 19-year high of 5.083%, the highest since July 2007. The yield on 30-year Treasury bonds stood at 5.388%.

The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note surged past the 5% level today, hitting its highest in 19 years, after the release of strong US purchasing managers' index data, which heightened investor worries about interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. As of 10:54 pm Thailand time, the 10-year Treasury yield stood at 5.083%, its highest since July 2007. The 30-year Treasury yield stood at 5.388%. S&P Global reported that the preliminary composite PMI for US manufacturing and services rose to 58.4 in September, the highest in 62 months, from 56.0 in August. The preliminary manufacturing PMI rose to 57.0, the highest in 52 months, and the preliminary services PMI rose to 58.7, the highest in 59 months. Meanwhile, Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr said he expects the Fed will need to keep raising interest rates to control inflation, noting that the labor market and economic growth remain strong, but inflation is still above the Fed's 2% target.

The Federal Reserve's first rate hike in three years, lifting its target range to 3.75%-4.00%, is forcing commercial real estate into refinancing at sharply higher costs, according to a U.S. Bank note dated September 16, 2026. Jeff Sica, chief executive of Circled Square Alternative Investments, described the fallout as a "primal scream from commercial real estate," warning that the gap between a 4% loan and a 7% loan adds roughly $600,000 a year in extra interest on a single commercial building. Sica said higher debt service costs will push landlords to raise rents, hitting apartment dwellers and small business tenants first, and warned of "a tremendous series of unintended consequences" that could create inflation "that people didn't even know existed." Commercial mortgages price off the long end of the curve, with the 10-year Treasury yield at 4.96% and the 30-year at 5.29% on September 21, 2026, up from 4.79% on the 10-year on September 1, according to Globest. The trillion-dollar refinancing figure cited in the headline came from the publication's editor's characterization of the segment and did not appear in Sica's quoted remarks.

Interest yields on super-safe 30-year Treasuries have climbed to a nineteen-year high of 5.35%, a move that is weighing on bond prices and rippling into the stock market. The average 30-year Treasury has lost about 5% of its market value over just the past year, and corporate and municipal bonds are losing value too as current owners sell and interest in newly issued debt stays tepid. Following last week's decision to raise the baseline rate, the market is betting on at least one more, and maybe even two more, quarter-point increases in the Fed Funds Rate this year, a backdrop that led brokerage firm Charles Schwab to warn that now is not the time to favor long-duration bond investments. With long-term Treasury yields now markedly higher than most income-producing stocks' dividend yields, investors have good reason to rotate out of dividend-paying stocks and into bonds, crimping demand for those equities. On the consumer side, 90-day credit card delinquencies among U.S. borrowers reached a 15-year high at the end of last year and have stayed near those levels, while the average payment on a new car stands at $765 per month and $542 per month for a used vehicle, according to credit bureau Experian.

The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note climbed above 5% today as investors awaited remarks from Federal Reserve officials. As of 9:27 p.m. Thailand time, the 10-year Treasury yield stood at 5.004%, while the 30-year Treasury yield was at 5.338%. Investors are watching today's comments from Fed officials, including Michelle Bowman, a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors and a permanent voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee, as well as Jeffrey Schmid, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, for signals about the officials' thinking on monetary policy. The Federal Open Market Committee voted unanimously, 12-0, to raise short-term interest rates by 0.25% to a range of 3.75-4.00% at its meeting on September 16, in line with market expectations. The increase was the first in more than three years, or since July 2023, and since then the Fed had cut rates six times, by a total of 1.75%. The Dot Plot report showing Fed officials' projections indicated that 16 of 18 officials expect one more rate hike this year. In addition, Fed officials expect rates to end 2026 and 2027 at the same level, while the Fed will cut rates once each in 2028 and 2029. Bob Edwards, chief investment officer of Edwards Asset Management, said that if the Fed raises rates again, it would likely happen at the December meeting, since the Fed is unlikely to announce a rate change at its October meeting, which takes place just days before the November 3 midterm elections, for fear the decision would be seen as politically motivated.

Ed Yardeni cut his year-end S&P 500 target to 7,900 from 8,400, blaming a 10-year Treasury yield near 5% for compressing valuation multiples rather than any deterioration in earnings. Yardeni, who had been making one of the loudest bullish calls on the Street, moved the old 8,400 target to mid-next year and noted that 7,900 would still print a record high. The 10-year Treasury sat at 5.01% and the 30-year at 5.35% on September 16, 2026, right in the zone Yardeni flagged as multiple-compressing, while the SPDR S&P 500 ETF closed at $754.13, down 2.4% over the past month but up 10.59% year to date. Yardeni said earnings are going to be fantastic, and total U.S. corporate profits reached $4.8 trillion in the second quarter with reported year-over-year growth of 22.8%, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. He reads the Summary of Economic Projections as the opening of a hiking cycle, with another move possible this year and one more next year, while the policy rate's upper bound stands at 3.75% and the 10-year minus 2-year spread has narrowed to 0.27%, its lowest in the past year.

The 10-year Treasury yield hit its highest level since 2007, hovering around 5.00% after reaching the 5% threshold yesterday and climbing as high as 5.04% today. The 30-year Treasury yield stood at 5.36%, while the two-year note rose to 4.66%, more than 1% above the Fed's funds rate, signaling to the Fed that investors want rate increases. The market anticipates the Federal Reserve will raise rates tomorrow by 25 basis points. Strategists attributed the move to factors including the unwinding of the Yen carry trade, higher oil prices, corporate bond issuance for the AI infrastructure buildout, rising real rates due to economic growth and infrastructure spending, and a supply energy shock tied to shipping disruptions in the Red Sea and China's increased oil purchases for reserves.