German Bunds are the euro area's benchmark safe asset and the risk-free anchor of the eurozone curve. They are also Europe's premier flight-to-safety instrument. The 10-year is the benchmark maturity, reflecting expectations for growth, inflation, and policy, and serves as a reference rate for pricing across the economy.
Bund yields stall as ECB tempers hike bets and France risk lifts safe-haven demand
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ECB pushes back on back-to-back hikes ECB President Lagarde said gradual rate rises remain appropriate and pushed back on market bets for another hike as soon as October, saying energy-driven inflation has not fed into wages. Fewer expected rate rises mean new German bonds need to pay less to attract buyers, pulling the 10-year yield down.
This is the main new force capping the multi-week yield climb, directly lowering the expected policy path.
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Markets cut October ECB hike odds after inflation data September inflation came in hot in Germany, France, Italy and Spain, with Spain at 5%, but markets judged the jump as mostly energy-driven and cut the chance of an October ECB hike to about one in three. Lower hike odds reduce the interest new German bonds must offer, pushing the 10-year yield down.
It shows the key new shift in rate expectations that is pulling German yields lower despite high inflation.
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France's budget worries drive safe-haven money into German bonds The gap between French and German 10-year borrowing costs hit its widest since 2012 as investors fretted about France's weak finances and sold French debt. Money seeking safety flowed into German Bunds, lifting their prices and pushing the 10-year yield down.
This is a new, distinct force — safe-haven demand — that is actively lowering German yields this period.
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Global bond selloff and oil above $105 keep upward pressure A worldwide government bond selloff, with US 10-year yields near 5.24% and Brent crude above $105, kept pressure on German bonds, which also faced selling. Heavy government and corporate borrowing adds to supply, so investors demand higher yields — a counterweight to the recent decline.
It is the main new counterweight keeping German yields elevated even as ECB hike bets fade.
Q3 2026
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Bund yields hit 15-17 year highs on ECB hikes and global selloff
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ECB rate hikes and global bond selloff The ECB raised rates for the first time since 2023 to 2.50%, joining a historic global bond selloff. This pushed Germany's 10-year yield to 15- and 17-year highs as investors demanded higher returns.
This is the main new force that drove Bund yields sharply higher in Q3 2026.
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Strong eurozone data and energy-driven inflation Strong eurozone economic data and energy-driven inflation above 3% with oil near $95 raised inflation expectations. This added to upward pressure on long-term borrowing costs, reinforcing the yield surge.
It explains the economic and inflation backdrop that amplified the selloff in Bunds.
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Heavy German and French bond supply Heavy bond issuance from Germany and France, driven by deficit spending, increased the supply of government bonds. More supply weighed on prices and pushed yields higher.
It highlights a key supply-side factor that contributed to the rise in yields.
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Falling inflation expectations and safe-haven flows Eurozone inflation expectations fell for a third month to 2.9%, and ECB's Lagarde downplayed an October hike, cutting market odds to one in three. Safe-haven flows from French budget worries also supported Bunds, stalling the yield climb by early October.
It shows the counterweight that partly offset the yield rise and prevented further increases.
Dollar hits 17-month high against euro as bond selloff drives yields higher
The dollar strengthened to a 17-month high against the euro, amid a selloff in U.S. and European government bonds that pushed U.S. Treasury yields to new highs, while rising oil prices added to inflation pressure. The euro weakened below 1.123 dollars per euro for the first time since May 2025, and was last down 0.87% at 1.1229 dollars, having fallen nearly 2.5% in September, its largest monthly decline since July 2025. The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds touched its highest level since 2002 before falling more than 5 basis points to 5.239%, while French government bond yields jumped to a 14-year high on concerns about France's weak fiscal position, and German government bonds also faced selling pressure. Brian Daingerfield, head of G10 foreign exchange strategy at NatWest Markets, said the higher yields stemmed from concerns about fiscal policy, weakness in the French bond market, and worries about energy prices and rising inflation, with the market still expecting central banks including the Federal Reserve to continue tightening monetary policy. The pound fell 0.6% to 1.3186 dollars after dropping 2.1% in the past month, and was steady against the euro at about 85.11 pence per euro, its weakest level since late June.
Euro Slides as French-German Bond Spread Hits Widest Since 2012
The euro is selling off hard, with EUR/USD heading for its biggest one-day loss since June 17, as the gap between French and German ten-year borrowing costs widened to its highest level since 2012. France unveiled a 2027 budget on Thursday aimed at reassuring the investors who lend it money. Those investors already charge France 130 basis points more than Germany to borrow for ten years, the widest gap since 2012.
EURUSD.FOREX · Monetary · Negative Euro sells off hard with EUR/USD heading for its biggest one-day loss since June 17 on the widening French-German bond spread.
FR-10Y.GB · Monetary · Negative French 10Y borrowing costs rise to a 130bp spread over Germany, the widest since 2012, as investors demand more to lend to France.
DE-10Y.GB · Monetary · Positive German 10Y yields fall as investors seek the safe-haven Bund amid the widening French-German spread.
EU Inflation Accelerates on Energy as Spain Hits 5%, Highest Since 2023
Inflation in the European Union's large economies remains under pressure from rising energy prices, with September inflation readings for Germany, France, Italy and Spain all coming in above analyst expectations. Spain's inflation rate surged to 5%, the highest level since 2023, stirring concerns reminiscent of the last inflation spike in the region after Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Energy factors are still likely to push eurozone inflation close to 4% late this year, while a Bloomberg survey expects eurozone inflation, due to be published this Friday, to come in at 3.7%. A higher-than-expected reading would further raise the risk that inflation could exceed forecasts and push borrowing costs higher. Markets have nonetheless scaled back expectations that the European Central Bank will raise interest rates for a third time at its October meeting, since the inflation impact remains largely confined to the energy sector. ECB President Christine Lagarde said a global bond market selloff will help ease price pressures, while German two-year government bond yields fell 8 basis points to 3.22% and 10-year yields fell 6 basis points to 3.57% on Wednesday. Markets put the odds of a 0.25% ECB rate hike at its October 29 meeting at about one in three, and expect total rate increases of roughly 0.90% by the autumn of next year.
European Stocks Fall Again as STOXX 600 Drops 2.49% for the Month; French 10-Year Yield Posts Biggest Quarterly Rise Since 1987
In European markets on the 30th, the STOXX Europe 600 index closed at 634.89, down 0.50% from the previous day, falling 2.49% for the month in its first decline in six months and slipping 1.07% for the quarter. In London, the FTSE 100 fell for a third straight session, down 2.02% for the month, though it held a 1.04% gain for the quarter, while the mid-cap FTSE 250 rose 0.68% from the previous day, advancing for a fourth consecutive session. In eurozone bond markets, the French 10-year yield stood recently at 4.84%, up 2 basis points from the previous day, having touched 4.8485%, an 18-year high, with its September rise at 66.5 basis points, the largest since late 2022, and its quarterly increase at 119 basis points, on track for the biggest since 1987. The German 10-year yield fell 4 basis points to 3.57%, and the spread between German and French 10-year yields reached 125.90 basis points, the widest since June 2012. Among individual stocks, bakery chain Greggs rose 8.2% after raising its full-year profit outlook, and Saga climbed 22.8% after forecasting a sharp increase in profit, while the utilities index rose 1.67% as remarks by UK Prime Minister Burnham drew investor attention.
FR-10Y.GB · Monetary · Negative French 10-year yield hit an 18-year high of 4.8485% and posted its biggest quarterly rise since 1987, with the German-French spread at its widest since 2012.
DE-10Y.GB · Monetary · Positive German 10-year yield fell 4bp to 3.57%, a decline in the yield itself (bond price up) amid the French spread blowout.
ECB's Lagarde Pushes Back on Back-to-Back Rate Hike Expectations, Weighing on Euro
European Central Bank President Lagarde has pushed back against expectations for another back-to-back ECB rate hike, according to MUFG's Lee Hardman. Lagarde stressed higher long-term yields and the need for a measured response, comments that weighed on the euro. The pushback tempers market expectations for consecutive ECB rate increases.
Euro Slips Below 1.1350 as Lagarde Signals Dovish ECB Stance
The Euro weakened against the US Dollar on Wednesday, with EUR/USD declining to around 1.3335 during early Asian trading hours after European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde struck a dovish tone. Germany's August Retail Sales data is due later on Wednesday and is expected to draw market attention. The pair's move lower came as the single currency softened broadly following Lagarde's remarks.
ECB President Says Gradual Rate Hikes Remain Appropriate, No Second-Round Inflation Effects Seen
European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said on the 28th that this year's inflation has not yet produced dangerous second-round effects across the euro area, so gradual policy action by the ECB remains appropriate. She was speaking at a committee hearing of the European Parliament. Euro-area inflation has already exceeded 3% and could approach 4% by year-end, double the ECB's target. Markets widely expect that, on top of the two rate hikes carried out during the summer, as many as four more increases will be needed over the coming year. Lagarde, however, pushed back against some market expectations for aggressive rate hikes, noting that the surge in crude oil and gas prices stemming from the US-Iran conflict is the main driver of price increases. She added that inflation is expected to rise further but that there are no signs yet that it is becoming entrenched, and that at this stage there is no evidence that energy prices are feeding through to wage growth. She also said the current shock is too large to be dismissed as temporary, while the ECB believes a cautious approach is appropriate to contain inflation, though she acknowledged that inflation indicators are tilted toward upside risks and that uncertainty surrounding the outlook is extremely high. While the definition of a cautious approach is not clear, economists say the first two rate hikes, carried out at three-month intervals, serve as a guide. Lagarde maintained an optimistic view on the economy, saying manufacturing is holding firm, the labor market is solid, and investment should support growth.
ECBRATES.MM · Monetary · Positive Lagarde signals gradual rate hikes remain appropriate, pushing back on aggressive tightening expectations, so the ECB policy rate path is lower than markets feared.
EURUSD.FOREX · Monetary · Negative Lagarde pushes back on aggressive ECB rate hikes, weakening the euro's rate-differential appeal versus the dollar.
DE-10Y.GB · Monetary · Positive Dovish-leaning ECB guidance (gradual hikes, no second-round effects) lowers expected rate path, pushing German 10Y yields down (bond prices up).
German Bund yields pause after seven-week climb as energy inflation persists
German 10-year Bund yields held steady at 3.624% on Monday, consolidating near multi-year highs after capping a seventh consecutive weekly advance, the longest stretch of weekly gains since 2022. The policy-sensitive two-year Schatz yield was similarly flat at 3.310%, just below its 2023 peaks. The pause comes as Brent crude holds above $105 a barrel and persistent deficits in European natural gas storage reignite cost-push inflation fears, with money markets now discounting roughly 100 basis points of additional rate increases by late 2027. Heavy corporate and sovereign debt issuance is also forcing yields higher across the curve as allocators demand elevated risk premia. Across the Atlantic, U.S. Treasuries paused near record peaks after the 10-year yield touched 5.18% and the 30-year reached 5.47%, its highest since 2004, with desks watching upcoming U.S. September labor data and August PCE inflation, while the Reserve Bank of Australia is poised to resume tightening and flash September Eurozone CPI prints are seen backing further ECB hikes.
Global Interest Rates Climb Sharply as US Long-Term Yields Hit 19-Year High
Interest rates are rising sharply around the world, and with inflation fears spreading on higher crude oil prices, the US long-term rate briefly touched the 5.22% level on the 24th, a 19-year high. Rates are also climbing in major European economies such as France and Germany. With tensions in the Middle East persisting, attacks on Saudi Arabia by Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthi militant group have intensified, crude oil futures are regaining upward momentum, and the major central banks of Japan, the United States and Europe are scrambling to contain inflation, having all raised rates in September. In the markets, expectations that the Bank of Japan and the US Federal Reserve will accelerate the pace of rate hikes going forward have fueled a view that rates will stay high, and in Japan, with the Takaichi administration leaning toward fiscal expansion, worries about deteriorating public finances are adding momentum to selling of government bonds. In the Tokyo market on the 25th, the long-term rate briefly rose to a 30-year high, but Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said only that rates are affected by a variety of factors, including long-term ones, and that her ministry is doing what it can. Market participants point out that until the Middle East situation calms down, rates are likely to remain unstable.
US-10Y.GB · Monetary · Positive US long-term yield briefly touched 5.22%, a 19-year high, on inflation fears and expectations the Fed will accelerate rate hikes.
JP-10Y.GB · Monetary · Positive Japan's long-term rate briefly hit a 30-year high on BOJ rate-hike expectations and fiscal-expansion worries under the Takaichi administration.
DE-10Y.GB · Monetary · Positive German long-term yields climbing along with global rates amid inflation fears and central-bank tightening.
FR-10Y.GB · Monetary · Positive French 10Y yields rising as rates climb across major European economies on inflation concerns.
Bundesbank's Nagel Says ECB May Need to Raise Rates to Restrictive Level
The European Central Bank may need to raise interest rates to a level that restricts economic growth, Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel said. Speaking in London during a visit, Nagel said, "If we are faced with a situation where such high energy prices persist for a long time, we cannot rule out that monetary policy will have to move into mildly restrictive territory," adding that it is too early to judge whether that will happen. The ECB is widely expected to continue tightening after two rate hikes, and markets have priced in up to three more increases in this hiking cycle. Euro-area inflation is above 3% and is expected to remain above the ECB's 2% target for another year. Nagel referred to upcoming wage negotiations in Germany and elsewhere, saying he is concerned they could lead to second-round effects, and stressed, "We must not let our guard down."
ECB President Pushes Back Against Market Rate-Hike Expectations, Saying Energy Prices and Interest Rates Are Not Linked
European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said on the 18th that the ECB's policy interest rate does not move in tandem with oil and natural gas prices, pushing back against market expectations of significant rate hikes in response to surging energy prices. Speaking at a press conference in Dublin, Lagarde said, "Interest rates do not move in tandem with energy prices," explaining that the impact of energy prices and inflation also extends to other factors such as growth and consumption, and that "we take all of these factors into account." She also said the ECB is "taking a cautious approach to the current situation," and expressed the view that it is well positioned to respond based on more data, information, and figures, and to properly assess changes. Regarding concerns about rising government borrowing costs, she noted that this is not a regional issue but mainly reflects global developments, and that "we are not seeing disorderly moves," describing it as a global trend affecting all bonds, particularly long-dated government bonds. Financial markets are currently pricing in the view that the ECB will carry out three to four more rate hikes over the next year, on top of the two hikes already implemented in recent months, with oil and gas prices both near levels consistent with the ECB's "adverse" scenario and potentially pushing inflation up to nearly 4% by the end of the year.
ECBRATES.MM · Monetary · Negative Lagarde pushes back against market expectations of three to four more ECB rate hikes, signaling a slower tightening path.
EURUSD.FOREX · Monetary · Negative Lagarde downplays energy-driven rate hikes, weakening the euro's rate-differential support versus the dollar.
DE-10Y.GB · Monetary · Negative Reduced rate-hike expectations lower the expected path of German yields; Lagarde also says rising borrowing costs are a global trend, not disorderly.
According to the August consumer expectations survey published by the European Central Bank on the 18th, eurozone consumers' inflation expectations rose slightly, apparently reflecting a renewed sharp surge in fuel prices caused by the intensifying conflict in Iran. The median expectation for inflation over the next 12 months came to 3.0%, up from 2.9% in July. The median expectation for three years ahead rose from 2.7% to 2.9%, and the five-year expectation rose from 2.4% to 2.5%. The ECB carried out its second rate hike of the year last week, and according to sources who spoke to Reuters, policymakers expect further rate increases in the coming months.
ECBRATES.MM · Monetary · Positive ECB survey shows inflation expectations rising and policymakers expect further rate hikes after the second hike of the year, implying higher policy rates.
DE-10Y.GB · Monetary · Positive Rising eurozone inflation expectations and expected further ECB rate hikes push German 10Y yields higher.
Euro Steadies Near One-Month Low as Fed Prepares Expected Quarter-Point Rate Hike
The euro traded little changed against the US dollar on Wednesday, hovering around 1.1537 and not far from Monday's one-month low of 1.1523, as traders avoided strong directional bets before the Federal Reserve's policy announcement. The Fed is expected to raise rates by 25 basis points at 18:00 GMT, lifting the federal funds target range to 3.75%-4.00%, with Chairman Kevin Warsh due to speak at 18:30 GMT. The dollar held firm near two-week highs, with the US Dollar Index around 99.70, after August Retail Sales rose 1.2% month-on-month, beating expectations of 0.8% and rebounding from a revised 0.5% decline in July, while CPI rose 0.4% on the month and annual inflation held at 3.4%. With the quarter-point move almost fully priced in, attention turns to the updated Summary of Economic Projections and its dot plot, after June's median year-end rate projection of 3.8%, and to Warsh's comments on the policy path. Across the Atlantic, the European Central Bank has raised rates twice this year and markets expect more tightening, though BNY analysts said the Governing Council will likely decide meeting by meeting after September, with opinions split between waiting until December and acting preemptively as energy prices rise.
ECB officials warn of further upside risk to inflation outlook on natural gas surge
Several European Central Bank policymakers said on the 14th that euro-area inflation could exceed an already raised forecast, expressing strong concern about the recent rise in energy prices, especially the sharp surge in natural gas. The ECB decided to raise interest rates at last week's Governing Council meeting and revised up part of its inflation outlook, but crude oil and natural gas prices are running above the levels assumed at that time, suggesting that high inflation may persist longer than expected. Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel said in Berlin that recent energy price developments are extremely concerning, noting that prices of refined products such as diesel have risen alongside crude oil, and that natural gas prices, which are especially important for Europe, have reached very high levels. In the ECB's economic projections, the base scenario assumed December natural gas futures at 60.1 euros per megawatt-hour and the adverse scenario at 77 euros, but current market prices exceed 83 euros, while North Sea Brent crude is around 107 dollars a barrel, also above the ECB's adverse scenario assumption. Slovak central bank chief Peter Kazimir said inflation risks are clearly tilted to the upside, and Latvian central bank chief Martins Kazaks told Reuters that the case for further monetary tightening is strengthening and that there is no special hurdle to raising rates above 2.5 percent. The ECB is scheduled to hold its next Governing Council meeting on October 29, with markets pricing in about a 60 percent probability of another rate hike at that meeting and seeing further increases this year as nearly certain.
Energy Transition & Power Demand › Natural Gas Value Chain ▲Pricing
ECBRATES.MM · Monetary · Positive ECB officials warn inflation risks are tilted to the upside and the case for further tightening is strengthening, implying higher policy rates.
DE-10Y.GB · Monetary · Positive Rising ECB rate-hike expectations on upside inflation risks push German 10-year yields higher.
EURUSD.FOREX · Monetary · Positive Hawkish ECB commentary on upside inflation risks strengthens the euro versus the dollar.
European stocks mixed as German 10-year bond yield hits highest level in over 17 years
In European markets on the 14th, the German 10-year bond yield rose by more than 4 basis points to 3.5544%, its highest level in over 17 years. Inflation concerns driven by higher crude oil prices and rising bond yields weighed on the market, with the STOXX Europe 600 falling 0.49% to 635.99, Germany's DAX down 0.50% to 25,440.81, and France's CAC 40 down 0.76% to 8,117.78. Meanwhile, London's FTSE 100 extended its gains, rising 0.44% to 10,697.57, as pharmaceutical and consumer staples stocks were bought. GSK rose 4.7% after announcing positive trial results for two lung cancer treatments, while data analytics firm GlobalData fell 18.7% after its full-year revenue forecast fell short of market expectations. Expectations are growing in the market that major central banks will raise interest rates within the year, with the ECB expected to implement at least one more rate hike this year, and markets fully pricing in two 25 basis point hikes by February 2027.
DE-10Y.GB · Monetary · Positive German 10-year bond yield rose over 4bp to 3.5544%, its highest in over 17 years, on inflation concerns and expectations of central bank rate hikes.
GSK.LSE · Technology · Positive GSK rose 4.7% after announcing positive trial results for two lung cancer treatments.
GlobalUnited StatesIranYemenEuropean UnionJapanSouth KoreaHong Kong SAR China+3
DE-10Y.GB▲impact 4
US PPI Jumps 5.4%, Oil Breaches $100, Sending Global Stocks Tumbling
The US Producer Price Index, or PPI, rose 5.4% year-on-year in August, above expectations of 5.3% and accelerating from 4.8% in July. Core PPI rose 4.6%, in line with forecasts, after a 4.3% gain the previous month. As a result, the Dow Jones closed at 52,064.10 points, down 316.56 points, or 0.60%. The S&P 500 closed at 7,591.70 points, down 44.66 points, or 0.58%, and the Nasdaq closed at 26,081.73 points, down 171.62 points, or 0.65%. Meanwhile, WTI and Brent crude both surged past 100 dollars per barrel as Iran continued to attack oil tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz and Iran-backed Houthi rebels seized control of the port of Mokha in Yemen. In Europe, the STOXX 600 closed at 635.97 points, down 4.44 points, or 0.69%, after the European Central Bank, or ECB, raised interest rates by 0.25% to 2.5%, its second hike this year. Asian markets opened broadly lower, with Japan's Nikkei posting the region's biggest opening drop at 1.52%, followed by South Korea's KOSPI down 2.7%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng down 0.95%, Australia's S&P/ASX 200 down 1%, and China's Shanghai Composite down 0.60%. Thailand's stock market is expected to trade sideways down in line with overseas markets. The stock to watch today is WHA, which is preparing to develop a 1,000-to-2,000-rai Data Center Park dedicated to data centers, with clarity expected within this year. The company remains confident land sales will meet its target of 2,500 rai after already achieving more than 1,000 rai in the first half.
BRENT · Geopolitics · Positive Brent surged past $100 on Iranian attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz and the Houthi seizure of Mokha port in Yemen.
WTI · Geopolitics · Positive WTI surged past $100 as Iran continued attacking oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz and Houthi rebels seized Yemen's Mokha port, threatening supply flows.
ECBRATES.MM · Monetary · Positive The ECB raised its policy rate by 0.25% to 2.5%, its second hike this year, lifting the ECB rate itself.
WHA.BK · Demand · Positive WHA is preparing a 1,000-2,000-rai Data Center Park and is confident land sales will hit its 2,500-rai target after already achieving over 1,000 rai in H1.
DE-10Y.GB · Monetary · Positive The ECB's 25bp rate hike to 2.5% pushes euro-area yields, including the German 10Y, higher.
Lagarde Says Eurozone Inflation Shock Will Last Longer as ECB Raises Rates
European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said euro-area inflation is likely to remain elevated for longer than previously expected, as the Iran war keeps pressure on energy prices. "The current shock is longer-lasting," Lagarde told Ouest-France in an interview published on Saturday, warning that continued conflict in the Middle East could keep energy markets volatile and prices elevated even as higher costs threaten economic growth. Her comments followed the ECB's second interest rate increase since the Iran war drove oil and gas prices sharply higher, lifting the deposit rate to 2.5%, with euro-area inflation currently above 3% and policymakers expecting further tightening may be needed to return price growth to the ECB's 2% target. New ECB projections released Thursday raised inflation forecasts for 2027 and 2028, with price growth in 2028 now expected to sit slightly above the central bank's target, while growth projections were also increased as the economy proved more resilient to the conflict and U.S. trade policies. Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel said Friday that borrowing costs may need to move into mildly restrictive territory to bring inflation under control, and Lagarde also flagged the possibility of a correction in elevated artificial intelligence sector valuations, called for planned French structural reforms to be implemented, repeated her opposition to canceling government debt held by central banks, and played down the prospect of running in France's presidential election while reiterating that she plans to leave the ECB next year.
ECB Raises Key Rates to 2.5% Deposit Rate, Signals More Hikes
The European Central Bank raised all three of its key interest rates by 25 basis points, taking the deposit rate from 2.25% to 2.5%, the main refinancing rate to 2.65% and the marginal lending rate to 2.9%. It was the ECB's second rate increase of 2026 following another quarter-point move in June. The central bank now expects headline inflation to average 3% in 2026, 2.5% in 2027 and 2.1% in 2028, with underlying inflation also seen above its 2% target throughout the forecast period, as rising energy prices tied to Middle East conflict push costs higher. The ECB raised its growth forecast to 0.9% for 2026 and 1.4% for 2027, citing better-than-expected resilience, stronger manufacturing and investment linked partly to defense, infrastructure and AI. Markets are roughly split on another increase at the October meeting and assign a much higher probability to at least one more hike before the end of the year, with some chance the deposit rate reaches 3% by Christmas.
ECB Hikes 25 bps to 2.50%, Signals More as Euro Trades Near 1.1600
The European Central Bank raised rates by a hawkish 25 basis points to 2.50%, a move President Lagarde called a "no brainer" while signaling further hikes ahead. According to Brown Brothers Harriman's Elias Haddad, EUR/USD is trading heavy around 1.1600 following the decision. The ECB expects inflation to remain above target for an extended period, which underpins its tightening path. BBH sees that hawkish stance as supportive of the currency pair.
Bundesbank chief does not rule out ECB entering mildly restrictive territory
Joachim Nagel, Bundesbank president and member of the European Central Bank's Governing Council, said on the 11th that if the surge in energy prices caused by the war continues, the ECB may need to raise interest rates further to a level that gently restrains the economy. He noted that the ECB has already raised its policy rate to the upper end of the neutral range, which neither stimulates nor restrains the economy, but said further increases may be necessary. In an interview with CNBC, Nagel said, "I would not rule out that we have to enter mildly restrictive territory, but that depends very much on how energy prices develop and perhaps on how the inflation picture changes over the next month or so."
ECB raises rates by 0.25%, its second hike of the year, signals another move as early as October
The European Central Bank, or ECB, decided to raise interest rates by 0.25%, its second hike this year, bringing the deposit rate to 2.50%, the lending rate to 2.90% and the refinancing rate to 2.65%, effective September 16, 2026. It also signaled that it may continue raising rates, with another increase possible as early as October, after war in the Middle East pushed inflation higher and it looks set to stay above the 2% target for a prolonged period. The ECB still expects eurozone inflation at 3.0% this year, 2.5% in 2027 and 2.1% in 2028, while core inflation excluding food and energy prices is expected at 2.5% in 2026, 2.6% in 2027 and 2.3% in 2028. The eurozone economy is expected to expand 0.9% in 2026, 1.4% in 2027 and 1.5% in 2028, with growth forecasts for both 2026 and 2027 revised upward. After the meeting, investors priced a 70% chance that the ECB will raise rates in October, up from around 50% previously. However, sources commented that the market's view that the ECB will hike three more times may be excessive, and that December could be a more appropriate time, since the December meeting will publish a new set of economic projections covering 2029. Eurozone inflation recently hit its highest level in nearly three years, making the ECB the most hawkish central bank among the G7 countries. Economists at Bloomberg Economics believe the camp favoring tighter monetary policy is gaining influence, and based on the ECB's estimates of the neutral rate, the deposit rate may need to rise by at least 2.75%.
Euro Steadies Against Yen After ECB Raises Deposit Rate to 2.50%
The euro steadied against the yen on Thursday after the European Central Bank raised its deposit rate by a quarter point to 2.50%. EUR/JPY rose above the 179.00 mark following the decision, which marked the ECB's second hike since the US-Iran war broke out. The move lifted the deposit rate to 2.50%, extending the central bank's tightening cycle.
Nordea: ECB Delivers 25bp Hike, Two More Increases Remain Baseline
Nordea analysts Jan von Gerich and Tuuli Koivu said the European Central Bank delivered a 25bp rate hike and signalled a bias toward further tightening, with two more hikes remaining the baseline. The analysts noted the ECB's projections show Eurozone inflation above target through 2028. The signal of a tightening bias accompanied the rate decision as the central bank weighs persistent price pressures.
ECB Expected to Resume Rate Hikes With 25 bps Increase in September
The European Central Bank is expected to resume interest rate hikes in September, raising the interest rate on the Main Refinancing Operations and the Deposit Facility by 25 basis points to 2.65% and 2.50%, respectively. The decision is driven by rising inflation and energy risks. The ECB will announce the decision on Thursday at 12:15 GMT.
The euro is holding steady against the pound, hovering around 0.8580 during European hours on Wednesday, as markets fully price in a 25-basis-point rate hike by the European Central Bank to 2.5% on Thursday. Surging energy prices driven by the US-Iran conflict are fueling the expected decision, with Eurozone inflation rising above 3% in August. Meanwhile, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey stressed that global conflicts are driving energy prices higher, keeping UK inflation risks elevated and supporting pound resilience on dips. ING's global head of macro, Carsten Brzeski, said, "We expect the ECB to hike rates by 25 basis points. Another insurance rate hike," adding, "Or for those who don't like this term: a dovish rate hike."
ECB Set to Raise Rates by 0.25% Amid 10 Key Variables
Global financial markets are closely watching the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting in September, with expectations of a 0.25% interest rate hike, driven by accelerating headline inflation from energy prices. However, what matters more is the direction of rates after September and whether the ECB will view the new rate level as sufficient to bring inflation back to its 2% target or if further hikes are needed. There are 10 key variables to monitor, including the new economic projections, the stance of ECB President Christine Lagarde, risks from natural gas prices passing through to electricity costs and production costs, and the transmission of monetary policy. Notably, gas prices are a major trigger, as Europe's gas reserves are at their lowest in five years, posing risks of supply shocks. Meanwhile, analysts at Yuanta Securities maintain a Slightly Underweight stance on European equities over the next 12 months, citing tight valuations relative to earnings potential, and recommend a Value Play strategy over broad index investment.
European Central Bank Set to Raise Rates for First Time in Two Meetings Amid Inflation Concerns
The European Central Bank (ECB) will hold its regular governing council meeting in Berlin, Germany, on the 9th and 10th to discuss monetary policy. With the resumption of fighting between the US and Iran making the Middle East situation uncertain, concerns about inflation due to persistently high energy prices have resurfaced, and expectations are growing that the ECB will raise interest rates for the first time in two meetings since June. At the meeting, it is expected that the deposit rate, the key policy rate, will be raised by 0.25 percentage points to 2.50%. The eurozone consumer price index rose 3.3% in August, accelerating from the previous month. The ECB decided to raise rates in June for the first time in about two years and nine months, but kept them unchanged in July. In the minutes published on August 28, the need for an early additional rate hike was pointed out due to concerns about a resurgence of inflation. Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel also said that "the likelihood of inflation returning to target in the medium term is low, and further tightening is necessary," and market expectations are largely leaning toward a rate hike to hedge against inflation risks.
Key Events This Week: US CPI and PPI, ECB Meeting, Republican Convention Speeches
This week, the US Treasury will expand its long-term bond buybacks from the 9th through November 4th, and President Trump and Vice President Vance will address the Republican National Convention ahead of the midterm elections. Markets are focused on the August US CPI and PPI, which are crucial for the September FOMC policy decision. Headline CPI is expected to rise 0.40% month-over-month due to higher gasoline prices, while core CPI is forecast to rise 2.4% year-over-year, the slowest pace since 2021. August PPI is expected to accelerate due to rising energy prices. Due to changes in the PCE calculation methodology, portfolio management fees will no longer reflect PPI, but new PPI components will be reflected in software and legal services. The European Central Bank is expected to raise interest rates at its regular governing council meeting, with attention on President Lagarde's press conference. The yen is expected to remain firm on expectations of a Bank of Japan rate hike and caution over intervention to correct yen weakness.
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Europe's bond yield divergence raises hidden market risk
A growing divergence in European government bond yields is raising a hidden risk for financial markets, with borrowing costs in major Western European economies climbing toward levels last seen nearly two decades ago, KB Securities said. Ten-year government bond yields in major Western European countries have already moved above their 2023 peaks and are approaching their 2007 highs, while the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield, although above 4.8%, remains below its 2023 peak. The more important concern is the widening gap between Western and Southern Europe: yields in France and Germany have risen sharply, while those in Spain and Italy remain below their 2023 peaks and have increased at a more moderate pace. KB Securities attributes the divergence to fiscal positions, with France and Germany expected to run budget deficits of about 5% to 6% of GDP next year, compared with 2% to 3% for Spain and Italy, which keeps the latter within the EU's 3% fiscal-deficit threshold. The divergence echoes the period before the 2011 euro zone sovereign debt crisis, but KB Securities does not see an imminent crisis, noting that the bigger risk could emerge when the economic cycle turns lower, making the next downturn a key test for European markets.
FR-10Y.GB · Monetary · Positive Yields rising sharply due to high deficits, approaching 2007 levels.
ES-10Y.GB · Monetary · Negative Yields remain below 2023 peaks but divergence with Western Europe noted; fiscal position better but still subject to market risk.
IT-10Y.GB · Monetary · Negative Yields below 2023 peaks and rising moderately; fiscal deficits lower, but divergence risk highlighted.
US-10Y.GB · Monetary · Negative US 10-year yield above 4.8% but below 2023 peak; divergence with Europe noted as risk.
Speculation over Japanese and US monetary policy to sway FX, focus on this week's economic indicators
Among the economic indicators scheduled for release this week, speculation over monetary policy in Japan and the US is likely to sway the foreign exchange market. The second preliminary GDP estimate for the April-June quarter, due on the 8th, is expected to be revised upward to an annualized 1.8% quarter-on-quarter growth, and an upward surprise would support expectations of further rate hikes by the Bank of Japan, leading to yen buying. On the 10th, the ECB is expected to raise its policy rate by 0.25 percentage points, with the focus on President Lagarde's press conference. The UK's July GDP, due on the 11th, is expected to slow to 0.1% month-on-month, and the pound could react depending on the outcome. The US August CPI is expected to accelerate to 0.4% month-on-month, with core at 0.2%, and will be a key factor in the Fed's rate-cut decision at the FOMC.
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World Heads into High-Interest Era: Governments, Highly Indebted Companies, and Low-Income Earners Brace for Impact
CNBC reports that global bond markets are facing heavy selling pressure, pushing bond yields to multi-year highs and raising borrowing costs across the economy—from governments and businesses to households—amid signs that the world may have to live with expensive money for years to come. Germany's 10-year bond yield has risen to its highest level since 2011, while Japan's stands above 3%. The U.S. 10-year yield has hit its highest level since November 2023, and the UK's has reached its highest since the 2008 financial crisis. The bond sell-off is driven by several factors, including heavy government bond issuance, rising oil prices, and expectations that central banks worldwide may maintain tight policies longer than anticipated. Robin Brooks, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, views this as a medium-term trend that could persist for several years. Governments with high debt and large deficits, particularly France and Japan—which have debt exceeding 200% of GDP—will be especially vulnerable. Businesses, especially small companies and the commercial real estate sector, will face higher refinancing costs, while low-income households will feel the impact first from increased debt burdens. Deutsche Bank estimates that the U.S. 10-year bond yield could rise to 5.5% within a year and 6.4% within two years, which would make total returns on holding bonds negative. Overall, if the world enters a high-interest-rate era, the heaviest burden will fall on highly indebted governments, companies reliant on borrowing, and low-income households, while investors holding cash may benefit from higher returns.
Danske Bank reports that EUR/USD slipped below 1.1600 as the US Dollar strengthened on a hawkish Federal Reserve stance and geopolitical tensions. The bank notes that Euro area inflation has moved back above 3%, reinforcing expectations for a September ECB rate hike.
EURUSD.FOREX · Monetary · Negative EUR/USD slipped below 1.1600 as USD strengthened on hawkish Fed and geopolitical tensions; ECB hike expected but not enough to offset USD strength
ECBRATES.MM · Monetary · Positive ECB rate hike expected in September due to inflation above 3%
Global Bond Market Selloff Sends Yields to Multi-Year Highs
Global bond markets were hit by heavy selling on Tuesday, pushing bond yields worldwide higher amid concerns over inflation and government debt burdens. Japan's 10-year bond yield touched 3% for the first time since 1996, while Germany hit a 15-year high and the UK reached its highest level since 2008. In the US, the 10-year yield rose 3.8 basis points to 4.796%, near its 2023 peak. Surging government debt, particularly in the US where it has reached $40 trillion, has investors worried about potential structural issues. Meanwhile, geopolitical conflicts are adding upward pressure on energy prices. David Krakauer from Mercer Advisors noted that the main drivers are domestic to the US, such as deficit spending and higher debt servicing costs. Several governments are beginning to show concern, with the US Treasury intervening in the market in August to curb the rise in yields. Additionally, massive bond issuance by tech companies to fund AI is adding further pressure on the market.
Brokerages see SET consolidating at 1,575-1,595 points after oil surge
Finansia Syrus Securities expects the SET Index to continue consolidating within the range of 1,575-1,595 points, pressured by the renewed US-Iran conflict that has resumed attacks, pushing Brent crude oil prices up 5% to US$95 per barrel. This increases inflation risks and the probability of a Fed rate hike at this month's meeting to 67%. As a result, global bond yields continue to rise, with the US 10-year yield recently at 4.8%, the highest in 20 months, Japan at 3%, and Germany at 3.37%, putting clear selling pressure on risk assets. This includes sector rotation into commodities like oil and defensive plays such as healthcare and telecoms. Brent crude oil prices rose 4.6% to close at US$94.7 per barrel, the highest since July 24, 2026. Meanwhile, Kingsford Securities assesses the trading range at 1,568–1,631 points, and Dao Securities expects the index to move sideways, hoping energy stocks will support the index. In the short term, attention is on US labor market data.
Euro Area Inflation Jump Supports ECB Hike: Commerzbank
Commerzbank economist Dr. Vincent Stamer says the Euro area's headline inflation rose to 3.3% in August from 2.9% in July, driven mainly by higher energy prices linked to the Middle East conflict, a development that supports the European Central Bank's decision to hike interest rates.
Austrian Central Bank Chief Says Further Rate Hikes Needed if Inflation Overshoots
European Central Bank Governing Council member and Austrian Central Bank Governor Robert Holzmann said on Monday that upside risks to inflation have recently increased, and if this is confirmed by the ECB's next projections, a prompt rate hike would be necessary. In a statement following the monthly inflation data, the governor noted that 'upside risks to inflation have recently increased again across the euro area as a whole,' and added, 'If this situation is confirmed by the ECB's next projections, I believe a further rate hike will be needed in the near term.'
Eurozone inflation accelerates to 3.3% in August, core slows
The European Union's statistics office reported on Tuesday that the eurozone's flash consumer price index (HICP) for August rose 3.3% year-on-year, accelerating from 2.9% in July and returning above the 3% mark, driven by higher energy costs. Nearly all of the increase was due to energy prices, with rises in crude oil and natural gas and wider refining margins contributing. Meanwhile, core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, slowed to 2.4% from 2.5% the previous month, and services inflation also eased to 3.0% from 3.3%. The data broadly aligns with the European Central Bank's outlook and suggests that the widely expected rate hike to 2.50% at the governing council meeting on the 10th will be a relatively straightforward decision.
Eurozone inflation surges to 3.3%, highest in 3 years; markets bet on ECB rate hike next week
Eurozone inflation accelerated to 3.3% in August, the highest level since September 2023 and well above the European Central Bank's (ECB) 2% target, prompting investors to increase bets that the ECB will raise interest rates by 0.25 percentage points at its meeting on September 10. Data from Eurostat showed headline inflation accelerated from 2.9% in July, while core inflation eased slightly to 2.4% and services inflation fell to 3%. The main pressure came from higher oil and gas prices due to the Iran war, with Italy's inflation accelerating to 3.2%, Spain surging to 4.5%, while Germany and France also saw increases. ECB board member Isabel Schnabel said borrowing costs need to rise further, while Austrian central bank governor Martin Kocher said another rate hike is necessary in the near future. If the ECB raises rates next week, it would further cement its status as the most hawkish central bank among the G7. The current deposit rate stands at 2.25% and may need to rise to levels that restrict economic activity, with the ECB's chief economist previously indicating that 2.5% is the upper bound of the neutral rate range.
Commerzbank: Proactive ECB Seen as Supportive for Euro
Commerzbank analyst Michael Pfister says the European Central Bank's proactive rate hikes in response to the inflation shock from the Iran conflict are supportive for the euro. Several central banks, including the ECB, have already raised rates, which Pfister views as a positive factor for the currency.
European Central Bank (ECB) board member Drenk said that the likelihood of a rate hike in September has increased. This statement suggests that the ECB is considering additional monetary tightening amid persistent inflationary pressures. The market is closely watching the ECB's next policy decision, and Drenk's remarks have strengthened expectations of a rate hike.