ECB rates

The European Central Bank decided on the 11th to raise its policy interest rate by 0.25 percentage points. This is the first rate hike in two years and nine months, since September 2023. The euro-dollar pair was bought up to 1.2349 dollars before falling to 0.9536, but against the backdrop of US rate cuts and waning confidence in dollar-denominated assets, it has recovered to 1.2081 dollars toward January 2026. Meanwhile, the euro-yen pair fell to 114.43 yen before rising gradually, and has been bought up to 187.70 yen amid the ongoing yen weakness and dollar strength and expectations for an end to the war in Ukraine. However, the Bank of Japan decided at its June monetary policy meeting to raise rates from 0.75% to 1.0%, so risk-on euro buying and yen selling may be somewhat restrained.

European Central Bank Governing Council member and Bank of Spain Governor Escriva said on the 29th that the sustained rise in global bond yields and persistently high energy prices are the main concerns for ECB policymakers. The governor noted that interest rates have not yet reached levels high enough to restrain economic growth, and said, "I am beginning to worry about the global upward trend in long-term interest rates." He expressed the view that rising yields could put upward pressure on interest rates, while persistently high energy prices could trigger dangerous second-round inflation effects.

Kazimir, Slovak central bank governor and member of the European Central Bank's Governing Council, said on the 29th that energy prices will remain a key factor as the ECB decides its next move. He said this month's rate hike was unavoidable given the energy shock, and noted that high energy prices are persisting longer than expected. He said the ECB has time to respond flexibly, and that January repricing data will be key for him in assessing the second-round effects of rising energy prices on inflation. He declined to comment on how he would vote on rates at upcoming meetings.

Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank, said that higher energy prices are increasing inflation risks in the eurozone, even though there is still no sign that the effects are spreading to the broader economy. Speaking at a meeting of the European Parliament's Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs in Brussels yesterday, Lagarde said the ECB raised all three of its interest rates by 0.25% earlier this month, and that the ECB is not pursuing policy to respond directly to energy prices but is focusing on the risk that higher energy costs will feed into inflation. Headline inflation in the eurozone rose to 3.2% in August from 2.9% in July, while energy inflation rose to 14.3% from 10.3%. According to ECB staff projections for September, headline inflation is expected to average 3.0% in 2026, 2.5% in 2027 and 2.1% in 2028, while the eurozone economy is expected to expand by 0.9%, 1.4% and 1.5% respectively. Lagarde said the inflation outlook for 2027 and 2028 is higher than the ECB projected a few months ago, mainly because of higher energy prices. However, there is currently no evidence that higher energy costs are pushing up wages, she added, and while the impact of energy prices is too severe to ignore, careful policymaking remains the appropriate approach to controlling inflation. She said the economic outlook still faces a high level of uncertainty, with risks that inflation will be higher than expected while economic growth risks falling short of expectations.

European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said on the 28th that this year's inflation has not yet produced dangerous second-round effects across the euro area, so gradual policy action by the ECB remains appropriate. She was speaking at a committee hearing of the European Parliament. Euro-area inflation has already exceeded 3% and could approach 4% by year-end, double the ECB's target. Markets widely expect that, on top of the two rate hikes carried out during the summer, as many as four more increases will be needed over the coming year. Lagarde, however, pushed back against some market expectations for aggressive rate hikes, noting that the surge in crude oil and gas prices stemming from the US-Iran conflict is the main driver of price increases. She added that inflation is expected to rise further but that there are no signs yet that it is becoming entrenched, and that at this stage there is no evidence that energy prices are feeding through to wage growth. She also said the current shock is too large to be dismissed as temporary, while the ECB believes a cautious approach is appropriate to contain inflation, though she acknowledged that inflation indicators are tilted toward upside risks and that uncertainty surrounding the outlook is extremely high. While the definition of a cautious approach is not clear, economists say the first two rate hikes, carried out at three-month intervals, serve as a guide. Lagarde maintained an optimistic view on the economy, saying manufacturing is holding firm, the labor market is solid, and investment should support growth.

European Central Bank Governing Council member Gabriel Makhlouf, the governor of the Central Bank of Ireland, said on the 23rd that the ECB would be forced to raise interest rates again if the surge in energy prices spills over into other areas. In an interview with public broadcaster RTE, Makhlouf noted that inflation remains above target but that no second-round effects are yet visible in prices, adding that if such a situation arose, the ECB would have to act again to meet its goal. He said, however, that at present no signs of such second-round inflation effects are apparent. Earlier this month, after the ECB decided on its second rate hike of the year, Makhlouf said that a "significant" further increase could also deal a blow to economic growth.

S&P Global reported that the preliminary composite Purchasing Managers' Index for the eurozone's manufacturing and services sectors surged to 53.1 in September from 52.0 in August, the highest level since April 2023 and contrary to analysts' expectations of a decline to 51.7. Business activity across the eurozone accelerated at its fastest pace in more than 3 years, supported by overall new orders rising at their fastest rate in over 4 years. The preliminary services PMI climbed to 53.0 from 51.6 in August, the highest in nearly a year, while the preliminary manufacturing PMI held steady at 52.7, unchanged from August, but the output measure, a component used to calculate the composite PMI, edged up to 53.4 from 53.3 the previous month. Businesses faced rising operating costs and input prices, as energy prices remained elevated due to the war between the United States and Iran, although companies were able to pass on some of the cost burden to consumers. On September 10, the European Central Bank decided to raise its policy interest rate by 0.25% to 2.50%, its second hike this year, to curb the surge in inflation caused by energy prices, and warned that price pressures could persist. Meanwhile, financial markets expect the ECB may raise interest rates 3 more times by the end of June next year.

The European Central Bank may need to raise interest rates to a level that restricts economic growth, Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel said. Speaking in London during a visit, Nagel said, "If we are faced with a situation where such high energy prices persist for a long time, we cannot rule out that monetary policy will have to move into mildly restrictive territory," adding that it is too early to judge whether that will happen. The ECB is widely expected to continue tightening after two rate hikes, and markets have priced in up to three more increases in this hiking cycle. Euro-area inflation is above 3% and is expected to remain above the ECB's 2% target for another year. Nagel referred to upcoming wage negotiations in Germany and elsewhere, saying he is concerned they could lead to second-round effects, and stressed, "We must not let our guard down."

According to the August consumer expectations survey published by the European Central Bank on the 18th, eurozone consumers' inflation expectations rose slightly, apparently reflecting a renewed sharp surge in fuel prices caused by the intensifying conflict in Iran. The median expectation for inflation over the next 12 months came to 3.0%, up from 2.9% in July. The median expectation for three years ahead rose from 2.7% to 2.9%, and the five-year expectation rose from 2.4% to 2.5%. The ECB carried out its second rate hike of the year last week, and according to sources who spoke to Reuters, policymakers expect further rate increases in the coming months.

The Bank of Japan, or BOJ, raised its policy interest rate by 0.25% to 1.25%, the highest level in 31 years, at its meeting on September 18, while signalling that it will continue raising interest rates and adjusting the degree of monetary easing, amid concern that inflation may rise above the BOJ's 2% target. The decision was not unanimous, as two of the nine board members, Toichiro Asada and Ayano Sato, voted against it. Both hold a stance favouring monetary easing and were appointed by Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi earlier this year. The BOJ stated that the rate hike was driven by the risk that inflation may rise above the 2% target and by the desire to keep underlying inflation stable at around 2%. It also announced it will monitor movements in foreign exchange markets and global demand related to artificial intelligence, or AI, in order to set the direction of future monetary policy. The rate hike comes after the US Federal Reserve, or Fed, raised interest rates by 0.25% to a range of 3.75-4.00% at its meeting on Wednesday, September 16, its first rate hike in three years, and signalled further increases this year. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank, or ECB, raised its policy rate by 0.25% at its meeting on September 10, its second rate hike this year, amid concerns about inflation. This marks the first time that the BOJ, the Fed and the ECB have all decided to raise interest rates in the same month.

The Bank of Japan, or BOJ, decided to raise its policy interest rate by 0.25% from 1.00% to 1.25%, the highest level in 31 years, in a non-unanimous vote, with two of nine board members opposing the rate hike. After the meeting's outcome was known, the US dollar surged above 157 yen, rising by about 1 yen to the lower 157 yen range, a two-week high, from the lower 156 yen range before the meeting began at 1:00 p.m. Tokyo time. The dollar was moving at 157.05-06 yen, compared with 155.92-156.02 yen in the New York market and 155.68-70 yen in the Tokyo market at 5:00 p.m. yesterday. The opposition of the two board members sparked concerns about the future direction of the current rate-hike cycle and disappointed some market players who had expected a larger rate increase. The BOJ's rate hike came after central banks around the world began shifting toward tighter monetary policy, with the Fed deciding to raise rates by 0.25% to 3.75-4.00% at its meeting on Wednesday, September 16, its first hike in three years, and signaling further increases this year. The European Central Bank, or ECB, decided to raise its policy rate by 0.25% at its meeting on September 10, its second hike this year, amid concerns about inflation. It marked the first time that the BOJ, the Fed, and the ECB decided to raise rates in the same month.

The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee voted 6-3 to keep its policy rate at 3.75% at today's meeting, in line with analyst expectations. Six members voted to hold rates, while three voted for a 0.25% increase. This hold is the sixth of the year, even as inflation remains above the BoE's 2% target, and the BoE has kept rates at 3.75% since December 2025, after cutting rates four times last year. Analysts expect the BoE to raise rates by 0.25% at its next meeting on November 5. The decision puts the BoE's monetary policy at odds with other major central banks: the US Federal Reserve announced a 0.25% rate hike yesterday, its first increase since 2023, while the European Central Bank announced its second rate hike of the year last week, following its first increase in June, which was its first hike in three years. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan is expected to raise rates by 0.25% to 1.25%, the highest level in 31 years, at its monetary policy meeting tomorrow.

The Federal Reserve raised its benchmark rate to 3.75-4.00% on Wednesday, its first increase since 2023, matching the quarter-point size of the European Central Bank's move six days earlier. The ECB acted first, lifting its deposit rate, the return banks earn on money parked with it, by a quarter-point to 2.50%. The Fed's matching increase came six days after the ECB's decision, and the sequence is weighing on the Euro.

The euro traded little changed against the US dollar on Wednesday, hovering around 1.1537 and not far from Monday's one-month low of 1.1523, as traders avoided strong directional bets before the Federal Reserve's policy announcement. The Fed is expected to raise rates by 25 basis points at 18:00 GMT, lifting the federal funds target range to 3.75%-4.00%, with Chairman Kevin Warsh due to speak at 18:30 GMT. The dollar held firm near two-week highs, with the US Dollar Index around 99.70, after August Retail Sales rose 1.2% month-on-month, beating expectations of 0.8% and rebounding from a revised 0.5% decline in July, while CPI rose 0.4% on the month and annual inflation held at 3.4%. With the quarter-point move almost fully priced in, attention turns to the updated Summary of Economic Projections and its dot plot, after June's median year-end rate projection of 3.8%, and to Warsh's comments on the policy path. Across the Atlantic, the European Central Bank has raised rates twice this year and markets expect more tightening, though BNY analysts said the Governing Council will likely decide meeting by meeting after September, with opinions split between waiting until December and acting preemptively as energy prices rise.

Several European Central Bank policymakers said on the 14th that euro-area inflation could exceed an already raised forecast, expressing strong concern about the recent rise in energy prices, especially the sharp surge in natural gas. The ECB decided to raise interest rates at last week's Governing Council meeting and revised up part of its inflation outlook, but crude oil and natural gas prices are running above the levels assumed at that time, suggesting that high inflation may persist longer than expected. Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel said in Berlin that recent energy price developments are extremely concerning, noting that prices of refined products such as diesel have risen alongside crude oil, and that natural gas prices, which are especially important for Europe, have reached very high levels. In the ECB's economic projections, the base scenario assumed December natural gas futures at 60.1 euros per megawatt-hour and the adverse scenario at 77 euros, but current market prices exceed 83 euros, while North Sea Brent crude is around 107 dollars a barrel, also above the ECB's adverse scenario assumption. Slovak central bank chief Peter Kazimir said inflation risks are clearly tilted to the upside, and Latvian central bank chief Martins Kazaks told Reuters that the case for further monetary tightening is strengthening and that there is no special hurdle to raising rates above 2.5 percent. The ECB is scheduled to hold its next Governing Council meeting on October 29, with markets pricing in about a 60 percent probability of another rate hike at that meeting and seeing further increases this year as nearly certain.

Martins Kazaks, a member of the European Central Bank's Governing Council and governor of Latvia's central bank, said in a telephone interview with Reuters that the ECB may need to raise interest rates further in steps to contain inflation before higher fuel costs stemming from the war in Iran feed through to wages and other prices. The ECB raised its policy rate on the 10th to 2.5% from 2.25%, its second hike this year. Kazaks said that given energy prices and a broad range of inflation readings remaining elevated, "the momentum for further rate increases is building." He said the 2.5% level, which the ECB regards as the upper bound of its neutral range, should not be treated as a ceiling, adding that "rates may need to move into restrictive territory." Euro-area inflation stood at 3.3% in August, and the ECB expects inflation of 3.6% in the fourth quarter of this year.

The Global Markets Group of Bank of Ayudhya, or BAY, expects the baht to move within a range of 32.80 to 33.40 per dollar this week, from September 14 to 18, 2026, compared with last week, when it closed weaker at 33.05 per dollar after trading between 32.81 and 33.17 per dollar. Foreign investors bought 1.39 billion baht of Thai stocks and 1.747 billion baht of Thai bonds, respectively. The market will be watching the US central bank's meeting on September 15-16, at which a 25 basis point rate hike is expected after the US August consumer price index showed inflation has yet to return to target. The Bank of Japan is likely to raise its policy rate to 1.25% on September 18, while the European Central Bank raised rates to 2.50% and signaled that it will keep monetary policy tight. On the domestic front, Thailand's consumer price index rose 2.53% in August from a year earlier, accelerating from 1.95% the previous month but still within the Bank of Thailand's inflation target range of 1% to 3%. The Ministry of Commerce expects headline inflation of 2.37% in the third quarter of 2026, accelerating to 2.70% in the fourth quarter of 2026.

The Global Markets team at Bank of Ayudhya expects the baht to move in a range of 32.80 to 33.40 baht per dollar this week, compared with last week's close of 33.05 baht per dollar, when it traded between 32.81 and 33.17 baht per dollar. Foreign investors bought 1.39 billion baht of Thai stocks and 1.747 billion baht of Thai bonds, respectively. The market will watch the US Federal Reserve meeting on September 15-16, where the market expects a possible 0.25% rate hike, while the Bank of Japan is likely to raise rates to 1.25% on September 18, with the market tracking signals on the frequency of rate adjustments ahead. The European Central Bank raised rates to 2.50% and signalled that it will keep monetary policy tight. On the domestic front, Thailand's consumer price index rose 2.53% in August from a year earlier, accelerating from 1.95% the previous month but still within the Bank of Thailand's inflation target range of 1-3%. Core consumer prices rose 1.44%. The Ministry of Commerce expects headline inflation at 2.37% in the third quarter of 2026 and accelerating to 2.70% in the fourth quarter of 2026.

The US Producer Price Index, or PPI, rose 5.4% year-on-year in August, above expectations of 5.3% and accelerating from 4.8% in July. Core PPI rose 4.6%, in line with forecasts, after a 4.3% gain the previous month. As a result, the Dow Jones closed at 52,064.10 points, down 316.56 points, or 0.60%. The S&P 500 closed at 7,591.70 points, down 44.66 points, or 0.58%, and the Nasdaq closed at 26,081.73 points, down 171.62 points, or 0.65%. Meanwhile, WTI and Brent crude both surged past 100 dollars per barrel as Iran continued to attack oil tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz and Iran-backed Houthi rebels seized control of the port of Mokha in Yemen. In Europe, the STOXX 600 closed at 635.97 points, down 4.44 points, or 0.69%, after the European Central Bank, or ECB, raised interest rates by 0.25% to 2.5%, its second hike this year. Asian markets opened broadly lower, with Japan's Nikkei posting the region's biggest opening drop at 1.52%, followed by South Korea's KOSPI down 2.7%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng down 0.95%, Australia's S&P/ASX 200 down 1%, and China's Shanghai Composite down 0.60%. Thailand's stock market is expected to trade sideways down in line with overseas markets. The stock to watch today is WHA, which is preparing to develop a 1,000-to-2,000-rai Data Center Park dedicated to data centers, with clarity expected within this year. The company remains confident land sales will meet its target of 2,500 rai after already achieving more than 1,000 rai in the first half.

European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said euro-area inflation is likely to remain elevated for longer than previously expected, as the Iran war keeps pressure on energy prices. "The current shock is longer-lasting," Lagarde told Ouest-France in an interview published on Saturday, warning that continued conflict in the Middle East could keep energy markets volatile and prices elevated even as higher costs threaten economic growth. Her comments followed the ECB's second interest rate increase since the Iran war drove oil and gas prices sharply higher, lifting the deposit rate to 2.5%, with euro-area inflation currently above 3% and policymakers expecting further tightening may be needed to return price growth to the ECB's 2% target. New ECB projections released Thursday raised inflation forecasts for 2027 and 2028, with price growth in 2028 now expected to sit slightly above the central bank's target, while growth projections were also increased as the economy proved more resilient to the conflict and U.S. trade policies. Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel said Friday that borrowing costs may need to move into mildly restrictive territory to bring inflation under control, and Lagarde also flagged the possibility of a correction in elevated artificial intelligence sector valuations, called for planned French structural reforms to be implemented, repeated her opposition to canceling government debt held by central banks, and played down the prospect of running in France's presidential election while reiterating that she plans to leave the ECB next year.

The U.S. Federal Reserve Board will hold a Federal Open Market Committee meeting on the 15th and 16th to discuss monetary policy. Fed Chairman Warsh stated plainly that employment is stable and that "the priority is price stability," and market expectations are growing that the Fed will proceed with its first rate hike in 3 years and 2 months, since July 2023. The August consumer price index released by the U.S. Department of Labor on the 11th rose 3.4 percent year-on-year, and the core index, which excludes volatile energy and food, accelerated to a 0.3 percent month-on-month rise, up 0.1 percentage point from the previous month. Against the backdrop of higher energy prices tied to the U.S.-Iran conflict, crude oil futures broke through the 100 dollars per barrel mark on the 10th, hitting a roughly four-month high. The European Central Bank decided on an additional rate hike on the 10th, and the Bank of Japan is also expected to raise its policy rate by 0.25 percent at its monetary policy meeting on the 17th and 18th. If Warsh decides to raise rates, tensions with President Trump, who is calling for rate cuts, will escalate sharply.

The European Central Bank raised all three of its key interest rates by 25 basis points, taking the deposit rate from 2.25% to 2.5%, the main refinancing rate to 2.65% and the marginal lending rate to 2.9%. It was the ECB's second rate increase of 2026 following another quarter-point move in June. The central bank now expects headline inflation to average 3% in 2026, 2.5% in 2027 and 2.1% in 2028, with underlying inflation also seen above its 2% target throughout the forecast period, as rising energy prices tied to Middle East conflict push costs higher. The ECB raised its growth forecast to 0.9% for 2026 and 1.4% for 2027, citing better-than-expected resilience, stronger manufacturing and investment linked partly to defense, infrastructure and AI. Markets are roughly split on another increase at the October meeting and assign a much higher probability to at least one more hike before the end of the year, with some chance the deposit rate reaches 3% by Christmas.

The European Central Bank raised rates by 25 bps in a widely expected move but signalled a more hawkish stance, according to UOB economist Lee Sue Ann. The ECB's hawkish rate path is seen as supportive for the Euro. Inflation risks remain elevated due to the Middle East-driven energy shock, the economist noted.

The European Central Bank raised rates by a hawkish 25 basis points to 2.50%, a move President Lagarde called a "no brainer" while signaling further hikes ahead. According to Brown Brothers Harriman's Elias Haddad, EUR/USD is trading heavy around 1.1600 following the decision. The ECB expects inflation to remain above target for an extended period, which underpins its tightening path. BBH sees that hawkish stance as supportive of the currency pair.

Joachim Nagel, Bundesbank president and member of the European Central Bank's Governing Council, said on the 11th that if the surge in energy prices caused by the war continues, the ECB may need to raise interest rates further to a level that gently restrains the economy. He noted that the ECB has already raised its policy rate to the upper end of the neutral range, which neither stimulates nor restrains the economy, but said further increases may be necessary. In an interview with CNBC, Nagel said, "I would not rule out that we have to enter mildly restrictive territory, but that depends very much on how energy prices develop and perhaps on how the inflation picture changes over the next month or so."

Barclays said on the 10th that it expects the European Central Bank to deliver another 25 basis point rate hike in December. It said upward revisions to the inflation outlook, combined with rising energy prices amid a war between the United States and Iran, are strengthening the case for further monetary tightening. The ECB decided on a 25bp rate hike at its governing council meeting on the 10th, and its new economic projections showed it is highly likely that inflation will remain above its 2% target for an extended period. Goldman Sachs also said it expects the ECB to go ahead with another 25bp rate hike in December, pushing interest rates into slightly restrictive territory, and noted that the ECB's baseline scenario shows inflation returning to its 2% target only in late 2027. Barclays sees little chance of a policy change in October and expects policymakers to wait until December, when they will have the latest economic projections in hand.

Gold prices fell sharply, nearing the $4,300 level, after the European Central Bank announced a 0.25% rate hike, its second this year, and US PPI for August accelerated on higher energy costs tied to the conflict in Iran. The data prompted markets to raise the odds that the Federal Reserve will hike rates by 0.25% at next week's meeting to about 71% from 61% before the PPI release. Global gold prices closed down $88.26, or 2%, at $4,317.02. Prices began falling sharply from around 7:00 p.m. and dropped more than $50 after the ECB announced its rate hike. US Treasury yields rose after the first Treasury Buyback round under the new framework repurchased about $5.2 billion of bonds, below market expectations, and the 10-year bond yield touched its highest level in nearly three years. The SPDR gold fund sold 0.35 tonnes the previous day and now holds 1,050.28 tonnes. For September overall it has bought 7.92 tonnes, while year-to-date since January 1 it has sold a net 21.73 tonnes. Markets are watching Friday's CPI report, the last major economic data point before the Fed's September 15-16 meeting. Gold prices look set to end the week down more than 2%, a third straight weekly decline.

The European Central Bank, or ECB, decided to raise interest rates by 0.25%, its second hike this year, bringing the deposit rate to 2.50%, the lending rate to 2.90% and the refinancing rate to 2.65%, effective September 16, 2026. It also signaled that it may continue raising rates, with another increase possible as early as October, after war in the Middle East pushed inflation higher and it looks set to stay above the 2% target for a prolonged period. The ECB still expects eurozone inflation at 3.0% this year, 2.5% in 2027 and 2.1% in 2028, while core inflation excluding food and energy prices is expected at 2.5% in 2026, 2.6% in 2027 and 2.3% in 2028. The eurozone economy is expected to expand 0.9% in 2026, 1.4% in 2027 and 1.5% in 2028, with growth forecasts for both 2026 and 2027 revised upward. After the meeting, investors priced a 70% chance that the ECB will raise rates in October, up from around 50% previously. However, sources commented that the market's view that the ECB will hike three more times may be excessive, and that December could be a more appropriate time, since the December meeting will publish a new set of economic projections covering 2029. Eurozone inflation recently hit its highest level in nearly three years, making the ECB the most hawkish central bank among the G7 countries. Economists at Bloomberg Economics believe the camp favoring tighter monetary policy is gaining influence, and based on the ECB's estimates of the neutral rate, the deposit rate may need to rise by at least 2.75%.

Kasikorn Securities assesses the SET index today will move in a range of 1,600-1,620 points, with the main pressure coming from Middle East tensions that have pushed crude oil prices continuously higher, and the US Producer Price Index, or PPI, for August, which rose 5.4% year-on-year from 4.8% in July, above the market expectation of 5.3%. As a result, the market has raised the probability that the US Federal Reserve, or Fed, will hike rates at its September meeting to 72.7%, while the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds jumped to 4.93% and the Dollar Index strengthened to 99.0. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank, or ECB, raised interest rates by 0.25% as the market expected. The key factor tonight is the release of US August CPI, which the market expects to hold steady at 3.4% year-on-year, with Core CPI expected to slow to 2.4% from 2.5% in July, the last data set before next week's Fed meeting. On the fiscal front, the Ministry of Finance is considering extending the Thai Chai Thai Plus program by another one to two months, with a conclusion expected by the end of September. Currently, more than 40 million people have benefited, over 1.2 million shops have joined, and the program has generated cumulative circulation of more than 150 billion baht. Meanwhile, the House of Representatives voted 338 to 144 to approve the draft budget bill for fiscal year 2570 worth 3.788 trillion baht, before sending it to the Senate for consideration on September 11. The EV Board approved guidelines to restructure excise taxes on electric vehicles into three tiers to encourage manufacturers to invest more and use more domestic parts. For today's strategy, the focus remains on a defensive stance, with stocks expected to post strong second-half 2569 earnings and offering attractive dividend yields. Today's top picks are SC and AWC.

CGSI, or CGS International Securities (Thailand), estimates that the SET Index is likely to weaken today within a range of 1,600-1,620 points, pressured by crude oil prices that surged past 100 dollars per barrel and by US producer inflation figures that came in higher than expected, adding to concerns that the Fed may raise interest rates at next week's meeting. Meanwhile, the yield on 10-year US government bonds climbed close to 5.0%, prompting investors to reduce their weighting in risk assets. The New York stock market closed lower, with the Dow Jones closing at 52,064.10 points, down 316.56 points, or 0.60%, while the S&P 500 closed at 7,591.70 points, down 44.66 points, or 0.58%, and the Nasdaq closed at 26,081.73 points, down 171.62 points, or 0.65%. In Europe, the STOXX 600 closed at 635.97 points, down 4.44 points, or 0.69%, touching its lowest level in two months after the ECB raised interest rates and warned that inflation could rise further from the energy impact of the war. As for recommended stocks, CGSI favours BDMS, whose August 2026 revenue grew 10% year on year, and which is expected to post third-quarter 2026 profit growth of 9% year on year and 45% quarter on quarter, with a profit target of 20.60 and a stop-loss at 19.90. PTTEP, meanwhile, posted net profit of 27,197 million baht in the second quarter of 2026, growing 130% quarter on quarter on strong sales volumes and higher average selling prices, with gas prices expected to hold steady at 6 US dollars per mmbtu in the third quarter of 2026, and a profit target of 157.50 and a stop-loss at 154.00.

The Financial Markets Group at Siam Commercial Bank expects the baht to move in a range of 33.00-33.25 per dollar today, with the baht weakening sharply again in line with crude oil prices that surged close to 109 dollars per barrel after Houthi forces advanced near the Red Sea coastal area close to the Bab-el-Mandeb strait. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia informed OPEC that its oil production fell further last month to its lowest level since 1990. The US dollar index strengthened after the August producer price index accelerated 0.4% month-on-month, in line with market expectations, pressured by energy prices, while the European Central Bank raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 2.50% and signaled it was ready to raise rates further.

The baht opened this morning at 33.15 per dollar, weakening from the previous day's close of 32.95 per dollar. Poon Panichpibool, a money and capital markets strategist at Krungthai GLOBAL MARKETS, Krungthai Bank, said the baht has been gradually weakening and tested the upper end of its range at 33.15 per dollar after the dollar strengthened on rising odds that the US Federal Reserve will press ahead with rate hikes, following the August producer price index report that came in higher at 5.4% year-on-year and 0.4% month-on-month, while the core PPI stood at 4.6% year-on-year and 0.2% month-on-month. He also cited the increasingly heated situation in the Middle East, which pushed Brent and WTI crude prices up to 108 and 103 dollars per barrel respectively. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank raised rates by 25 basis points to 2.50% as expected, but the market still expects further hikes, which pressured gold prices down toward 4,300 dollars per ounce and added to the downward pressure on the baht. For the short-term outlook, the baht faces two-way risk depending on the market's view of US monetary policy and developments in the Middle East, with an estimated range of 32.95 to 33.35 per dollar over the next 24 hours. He noted that if US CPI inflation comes in higher than expected, it could push the baht weaker past the resistance zone of 33.20 to 33.30 per dollar and back toward the key resistance zone of 33.50 per dollar.

The European Central Bank, or ECB, decided to raise its policy interest rate by 0.25% at yesterday's meeting, in line with market expectations. It was the second increase this year, bringing the deposit rate to 2.50%, the lending rate to 2.90%, and the refinancing rate to 2.65%. Meanwhile, Asian stock markets opened lower this morning, tracking the direction of U.S. equities. South Korea's Kospi opened down 3.3% at 6,802.50 points, and Japan's Nikkei opened down 1.5% at 64,276.82 points, amid broad-based selling. Crude oil prices surged above $100 a barrel on tensions in the Middle East, stoking investor concerns that inflation will accelerate and that the Fed may raise interest rates. Most recently, the CME Group's FedWatch Tool indicated that investors assign a 70.0% probability to a 0.25% Fed rate hike at the September 16 meeting, up from 61.2% on Wednesday, and a 30.0% probability that the Fed will hold rates at 3.50-3.75%, down from 38.8%. This followed the U.S. Labor Department's release of the August producer price index, or PPI, which showed headline PPI up 5.4% year on year, above the 5.3% expected and up from 4.8% in July. Core PPI rose 4.6%, in line with expectations, from 4.3% in July. Initial jobless claims fell by 1,000 to 206,000, above the 205,000 expected. The U.S. Energy Information Administration, or EIA, reported that U.S. crude inventories fell by 391,000 barrels last week, while analysts had expected a decline of 1.4 million barrels.