Oil Fund deficit hits 92.3 billion baht, on track to exceed 100 billion by end of September

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Summary · why it matters

Asia Plus Securities reported that the Oil Fund's position as of 20 September 2026 showed a deficit of 92.3 billion baht, split into a 52.3 billion baht deficit in the oil account and a 40 billion baht deficit in the LPG account. The fund carries an average payout burden of about 700 million baht per day, meaning it is likely to exceed a 100 billion baht deficit by the end of September. The existing 20 billion baht loan facility has already been fully drawn. The government has three main approaches to managing the burden: seeking an allocation from the 400 billion baht under the emergency decree, and if that is insufficient, possibly borrowing an additional 100 billion baht with a possible request for a Ministry of Finance guarantee; gradually reducing subsidies or ending the diesel price freeze; and using targeted relief measures. The government is also applying a measure to cut refinery prices for B0, B7 and B20 diesel by 4 baht per litre from 16 September to 31 October 2026, alongside the fund. The research team views each option as having different impacts. The liquidity top-up approach would have a limited effect on operators and help reduce volume-sales risk for OR and PTG, while the subsidy-reduction approach would pressure purchasing power and oil consumption volumes. The burden-shifting approach would raise risks to marketing margins and profits for the refinery group, namely TOP, BCP, IRPC, SPRC and PTTGC, and would also pressure the per-litre gross margins of OR and PTG.

Impact on assets 7

Energy Transition & Power Demand▼ · 2 stocks
Thai Oil Public Company Limited
TOP
▼ NegativePricingrelevance

Burden-shifting approach would raise risks to marketing margins and profits for the refinery group, including TOP.

Energy▼ · 2 stocks
IRPC Public Company Limited
IRPC
▼ NegativePricingrelevance

Burden-shifting approach would raise risks to marketing margins and profits for the refinery group including IRPC.

Star Petroleum Refining Co Ltd
SPRC
▼ NegativePricingrelevance

Burden-shifting approach would raise risks to marketing margins and profits for the refinery group, including SPRC.

Electrification & Mobility▲ · 2 stocks
PTG Energy PCL
PTG
± MixedPricingrelevance

Liquidity top-up reduces volume-sales risk for PTG, but burden-shifting would pressure PTG's per-litre gross margins.

Materials▼ · 1 stocks
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