Macro & Economy

Wall Street's artificial intelligence enthusiasm is helping technology stocks withstand a surge in interest rates that would normally pressure equity valuations, Bloomberg News reported Sunday. The 10-year Treasury yield recently topped 5.3% and the 30-year yield reached 5.69%, their highest levels since 2002, yet the Nasdaq 100 closed at a record Friday and has gained 22% this year, while the S&P 500 is less than 1% below its August record. Investors are betting strong earnings growth will justify elevated tech valuations, with third-quarter earnings per share for the tech sector projected to rise more than 65% and overall S&P 500 earnings expected to increase more than 24%, according to Bloomberg Intelligence. The AI investment boom is also changing company financial profiles: Alphabet, Amazon and Meta have seen annual free cash flow turn negative as data-center and AI infrastructure spending accelerates, and those companies plus Microsoft and Oracle increasingly need outside financing, per Bloomberg Intelligence. Higher rates are already taking a toll elsewhere, with the S&P 500 trading at less than 19 times projected earnings, down from more than 21 times in May, and some strategists see a 10-year Treasury yield approaching 6% as a level that could materially change the outlook for equities.

The number of Bitcoin wallets holding at least 1 BTC fell by about 14,000 between September 16 and October 1, dropping from roughly 985,000 to about 971,000. The data, reported by CoinGlass, suggests holders may have sold or reassessed their positions as the price rose nearly 50% from its August 19 level to approach 87,300 dollars. Meanwhile, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net inflows of about 2.9 billion dollars between September 17 and 30, with another 134.4 million dollars flowing in during the first two business days of October. U.S. nonfarm payrolls for September, released on October 2, rose by 29,000 from the previous month, far below the market forecast of 90,000, while the unemployment rate climbed to 4.2% and average hourly earnings growth slowed to 0.1% month over month, strengthening the view to 85% that the Federal Reserve will hold policy rates steady at its October 28 meeting. Bitcoin, however, remained below 85,000 dollars and was unable to clearly break through and hold above 86,000 dollars.

Artificial intelligence could drive a net increase of 0.47 to 1.8 gigatonnes of CO₂ emissions a year, according to peer-reviewed research cited by Jefferies. The study, published in npj Climate Action, found that emissions linked to AI-enabled fossil fuel production alone could be 3.3 to 13.3 times current emissions from data centres. Jefferies' sustainability and transition strategy team said the research challenges the way AI's environmental impact is typically assessed, noting that analysis often focuses on whether AI can speed the shift to cleaner energy while accounting for the extra electricity needed to run data centres, and can overlook a third factor: AI's use by oil and gas companies to increase fossil fuel output. AI can help energy companies cut drilling costs, locate new oil and gas deposits and improve recovery rates from existing fields, the study found, and those productivity gains can make fossil fuel projects more attractive and bring additional supply online more quickly. While AI can also improve renewable power generation and make energy systems more efficient, the research found the emissions avoided through those applications may be outweighed by additional emissions from increased fossil fuel production and consumption. Jefferies said the findings are relevant to investors assessing the broader impact of the rapid expansion of AI infrastructure, as the technology's energy footprint extends beyond the electricity consumed by data centres.

Ekniti Nitithanprapas, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Finance, visited the water gate and semi-permanent pumping station at the mouth of Khlong Rangsit in Ban Mai subdistrict, Mueang district, Pathum Thani province, to monitor the water situation and the drainage of water from Khlong Rangsit Prayunsak into the Chao Phraya River. He was assigned by Anutin Charnvirakul, Prime Minister and Minister of Interior, to prepare for a new wave of rainfall. Ekniti stated that the main problem stems from the volume of water flowing in from Nakhon Nayok province, while the northern water situation remains stable and has not yet caused severe impact. The government has already procured additional water pumps for the area after Pathum Thani province previously requested small pumps or high-speed pumps, and he instructed the provincial governor to make the care of the public the top priority. Regarding the case of Ongkharak district and Khlong 12, where there is a proposal to divert some water to the Rangsit side, Ekniti said water must be managed in an integrated, system-wide manner, since the Rangsit area itself receives water from Ongkharak and Nakhon Nayok, while Bangkok also continues to face flooding problems. He therefore plans to convene a joint meeting of the three parties within one to two days to set a unified water management approach from upstream to downstream, including accelerating drainage in downstream areas such as Samut Prakan province. He also instructed coordination with the electricity authority to prepare backup generators, since power outages in the past have prevented pumps from operating at full efficiency.

The number of people registering for flood relief payments through the "Tang Rath" application has surpassed 851,547 as of 8:30 a.m. today, with Bangkok recording the highest number of registrations at 371,775, followed by Samut Prakan province with 122,786, Pathum Thani province with 105,525, and Chachoengsao province with 34,604. Ms. Lalida Periswiwattana, deputy spokesperson for the Prime Minister's Office, said the government is accelerating assistance to the public through two approaches. The first is assistance under the Ministry of Finance regulations on government advance funds for emergency disaster victims, with damage assessments currently being carried out by local administrative organizations. This covers home repairs of no more than 88,600 baht per household, agricultural building repairs of no more than 6,800 baht per family, temporary accommodation rent of no more than 2,500 baht per month for up to two months, tools for primary occupations of no more than 13,500 baht per household, 5,000 baht for seriously injured victims hospitalized for three days or more, and 16,600 baht for victims who sustain disabilities. The second is assistance under a Cabinet resolution for disaster victims during the 2026 rainy season, which opened registration through the "Tang Rath" application from 8:00 a.m. on October 2, 2026. Under this scheme, households whose primary residences are flooded for seven days or more receive 9,000 baht per household, while households whose primary residences or high-rise residences are surrounded by water receive 5,000 baht per household. The system is currently open for registration across all 65 provinces in the assistance areas, including all 50 districts of Bangkok. For duplicate registrations at the same house number, the system will use the house identification number as the primary data for verification. Meanwhile, Bangkok has coordinated with the Department of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation to assign officials to facilitate registration for the elderly, the sick, or heads of households who are unable to travel or use the online system, through service points at temporary shelters. In addition, following the large number of repeated notification messages the public received from the systems of the Department of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation and the Digital Government Development Agency last night, both agencies confirmed that the alerts were sent to the same recipients, that no data was leaked and no system was hacked, and that the data forwarding system was suspended from around 10:00 p.m. last night for inspection and repair. They apologized to the public for the inconvenience caused.

Japan may decide to lift its ban on imports of raw U.S. potatoes for uses other than potato chip production sooner than the previously estimated two-to-three-year timeframe, amid pressure from the United States to open up Japan's agricultural market further. A source in the Japanese government said on Saturday, October 3, that some officials estimate Japan could reach a conclusion in about one year if the United States can quickly implement measures required under Japan's plant quarantine rules. The Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries entered the final stage of its process to consider lifting the import ban in September, and is currently discussing with the United States measures against 21 types of pests and pathogens that could be carried on the potatoes. Kyodo News reported that Japan began considering lifting the import ban in 2020 after receiving a formal request from the United States. Currently, Japan allows imports of raw U.S. potatoes only for the production of potato chips, while frozen and processed potatoes can be imported from many countries. However, potato producers in Japan, especially in Hokkaido, Nagasaki and Kagoshima, have expressed concern about the risk of pests and disease, as well as price competition if cheaper U.S. potatoes enter the market in greater volume. Before considering lifting the import ban, Japan's agriculture ministry plans to hold information sessions for domestic producers, gather opinions from experts and open the floor to public comment.

The research team at Phillip Securities expects the SET Index next week, from October 5 to October 9, 2026, to move sideways within a range of 1,560 to 1,590 points, with the main pressure coming from external sentiment, including concerns over the Federal Reserve's monetary policy direction and FOMC Minutes that are likely to reflect a hawkish stance. Meanwhile, Logan, a hawkish Fed governor, is expected to voice concern over the inflation outlook, which could keep bond yields elevated and weigh on equity valuations, particularly in the technology sector. In this context, the research team sees banking stocks as attractive as a safe haven. It also advises keeping an eye on Thailand's September CPI release, with the market expecting headline CPI to rise 3.10% year on year, accelerating significantly from 2.53% year on year, while core CPI is expected to rise 1.58% year on year, compared with 1.44% year on year in August. This is consistent with domestic retail diesel prices in September, which rose 26.0% year on year, accelerating from 17.7% year on year in August. However, the research team sees limited downside, given expectations that the flood situation, especially in Bangkok and its surrounding provinces, will ease and that people will enter the government's relief process, which the research team views as an opportunity to speculate on repair and construction stocks. Meanwhile, on speculation over third-quarter 2026 earnings, the Bloomberg Consensus expects earnings per share in that quarter to grow 18.01% year on year, and China's Golden Week is likely to be a boost for tourism stocks and related shares. For global stock markets, the research team expects sideways to sideways-down trading, with the US services PMI still likely to remain above the 50 level. It recommends a selective buy on large-cap US stocks with revenue and profit growth trends that are likely to continue, a wait-and-see approach on the Japanese, South Korean, and Chinese markets, which are closed for extended holidays, and gradual accumulation of gold when prices weaken to the $4,000 to $4,100 per ounce level.

Innovest X Securities has released its fourth-quarter 2026 investment strategy, warning investors to watch for seven risk signals stemming from fragile macroeconomic factors, and advising them to avoid chasing prices, to select stocks with strong financial positions, and to diversify across a range of assets. Suthichai Kumworachai, Head of Investment Strategy & Research, said the prolonged conflict between the United States and Iran could create a chain of risk running from elevated oil prices to inflation, financing costs, and the baht. He views developed markets such as the United States as more attractive than emerging markets, while the Thai stock market still benefits from accelerated government disbursement and investment. Dr. Piyasak Manasant, Chief Economist, maintained his GDP forecasts for Thailand in 2026 and 2027 at 2.0%, even with the flooding in Bangkok, because the impact is limited in scope and the Thai Help Thai Plus Phase 2 measures will offset it. He also raised his average oil price assumptions for 2026 and 2027 to 90 and 80 US dollars per barrel, respectively. Sittichai Duangrattanachaya, Chief Investment Strategist, said corporate earnings continue to support the market, with the earnings-per-share estimate for the Thai stock market rising steadily on the back of the energy sector, and set a SET Index target of 1,715 points for 2027, with the 1,550-point area a level at which gradual accumulation starts to look attractive. Domestic standout stocks include AMATA, CENTEL, CRC, KTB, and PR9, while foreign stocks focus on AI beneficiaries such as Google, Amazon, Nvidia, Tencent, and Alibaba. Jaranpong Rattanasopha, Head of Investment Product Specialist, recommended the M-SCHD fund, which invests through the Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF, or SCHD, whose technology holdings are less than 10%, compared with nearly 40% for the S&P 500, and whose correlation with the S&P 500 has fallen to about 0.3, the lowest level since the fund was established in 2011. Also available are the M-SCHG fund, which invests in the Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Growth ETF, or SCHG, and DR23, which provides access to US ETFs under BlackRock's iShares brand through three securities: IVV23 tracking the S&P 500, IQQ23 tracking the Nasdaq-100, and SOXX23 tracking the semiconductor group.

Anutin Charnvirakul, Prime Minister and Interior Minister, chaired a meeting of the National Disaster Prevention and Mitigation Command to monitor flood situations nationwide. He instructed provincial governors in areas prone to or forecast to face disasters to exercise their authority as provincial disaster prevention and mitigation directors and consider declaring disaster zones without waiting for the disaster to occur, and to consider spending budgets based on actual needs in line with regulatory criteria. Anutin also emphasized four directives for accelerating flood management, particularly speeding up damage assessments and approving compensation of 9,000 baht for people affected since September 25-26, 2026, as well as restoring areas where water has receded, public utilities, and preparing Big Cleaning plans. He also ordered governors of 14 southern provinces to prepare for heavy rainfall according to weather forecasts by reviewing area-specific response plans, preparing rescue teams, water pumps, boats, shelters, and evacuation plans for vulnerable groups. He assigned Acting Sub-Lt. Trakul Thotham, Inspector-General of the Interior Ministry, to drill shelter management guidelines with all 14 southern provincial governors, using the shelter at Prince of Songkla University's Hat Yai campus as a standard shelter. He also ordered Ekniti Nitithanprapas, Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister, along with Jaraseth Thaiseth, Deputy Interior Minister, to quickly drill damage assessment guidelines for claiming insurance compensation under the national insurance policy together with relevant agencies.

The Bangkok Metropolitan Administration has completed repairs to its online registration system for flood victims seeking assistance, and about 35,800 people have now registered. Lalida Periswiwatana, deputy spokesperson for the Prime Minister's Office, said Bangkok is accelerating drainage in the eastern areas, particularly Min Buri, Nong Chok, Prawet, Saphan Sung, Sai Mai and Lat Krabang, and is mobilising water pumps and water-pushing boats to help. Wissanu Charoen, director of the drainage system engineering division at the Bangkok Metropolitan Administration's Drainage Office, said the urgent operation is focused on reclaiming the Rom Klao community housing area in Lat Krabang district, where the water level has been reduced by about 30 to 60 centimetres, though roads in the area are still flooded by about 20 to 30 centimetres. Yesterday the Bangkok Metropolitan Administration added more flood barriers and installed additional water pumps, and expects to lower the water level by about 25 centimetres per day, with roughly two more days needed to return the area to normal. In the Sai Mai–Ao Ngoen area, the situation is expected to ease within about two days. People who have already registered and wish to correct their information can log in to the system to update it, or contact their district office during official working days and hours.

Pattrapong Pattrapasit, Deputy Minister of Transport, together with Anutin Charnvirakul, Prime Minister and Minister of Interior, visited the temporary shelter at Wat Ban Kaeng in Ban Kaeng subdistrict, Mueang Nakhon Sawan district, Nakhon Sawan province, to offer encouragement and hand out relief bags to flood victims. The delegation then traveled on to Sak Ngam subdistrict in Khlong Lan district, Kamphaeng Phet province, to inspect the Nong Prue-Tha Kabak bridge, whose structure was severely damaged by flash floods, cutting off the road connecting to the bridge. Pattrapong said that several days of continuous heavy rain had affected a total of 8 road and bridge sites, with 3 heavily damaged locations: the Ban Khlong Phrai road, the community bridge across Khlong Wang Chao, and the Ban Nong Prue-Tha Kabak bridge, which no vehicles can cross. The Ministry of Transport has drawn up a two-phase response plan. In the urgent phase, it will coordinate with the Department of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation and related agencies to procure temporary steel bridges or Bailey bridges and install them in the affected areas as quickly as possible, especially at the Nong Prue-Tha Kabak site, which spans about 96 meters. The situation will be reassessed after the monsoon period ends between October 5 and 9, and the embankment is expected to be reinforced to support the installation of a Bailey bridge. In the long term, the Ministry of Transport will allocate a budget to build new bridges to replace the damaged ones as quickly as possible.

Citi analysts said uncertainty around interest rates, energy costs, housing affordability and geopolitics is weighing on the U.S. home improvement industry and its stocks in 2026, after attending the HIRI Home Improvement Insights Summit. Economists at the summit broadly expect home improvement demand to remain flat over the next 12 months, with higher rates and weak housing affordability the key constraints, offset partly by resilient consumers, a stable jobs market and household wealth. HIRI survey data indicated mortgage rates in the 5% range could be an important psychological threshold for homeowners considering moving from existing mortgages, with about 80% of homeowners with mortgages currently holding rates below 6% and half below 4%. A homeowner survey found roughly one-third of projects are currently being delayed or cancelled, while a separate contractor survey showed 60% of professionals had experienced at least one cancelled project, a substantial increase from last year, with projects that proceed increasingly focused on maintenance and repairs. Longer-term fundamentals remain supportive: Americans now stay in their homes an average of 10 to 11 years versus roughly seven to eight years previously, the average U.S. housing stock is 44 years old, homeowners hold about $450,000 in average household equity, and the U.S. has seen roughly two decades of underbuilding in single-family homes, according to an economist from the National Association of Home Builders. Lowe's technology chief said its AI strategy centres on augmenting employees rather than replacing them, and recent weakness in home improvement stocks suggests investors are pricing in the possibility that sluggish industry growth extends into 2027.

The Federation of Thai Industries, or FTI, has announced the establishment of a War Room as a central hub for monitoring flood situations and coordinating assistance for the industrial sector, after flooding in many areas caused damage to numerous operators at their facilities, machinery, equipment, raw materials, and goods. In some areas, production and transport had to be halted, affecting supply chains and product deliveries. FTI President Pimjai Leeissaranukul said the organization will work with provincial industrial councils, industry groups, and networks in each region to gather data on problems that arise, the impact on operators, and needs from the affected areas, in order to formulate conclusions and set targeted assistance guidelines. It will advance three approaches: Respond, to prepare before floodwaters arrive in areas not yet affected; Rescue, to expedite assistance to operators already flooded; and Recover, to restore businesses after the waters recede, covering buildings, electrical systems, machinery, production equipment, raw materials, and transport systems. The FTI will also push for proposals on low-interest loans and debt moratorium measures, property tax relief measures, as well as logistics easing and the waiver or reduction of penalties for delayed transport due to force majeure, in order to reduce the impact on the industrial sector and the country's production chain.

Bnomics by Bangkok Bank released an analysis warning that flooding is not merely a problem of heavy rainfall, but reflects that cities cannot handle the water, with damage spreading to GDP and supply chains. It points out that Thailand must shift its mindset from 'draining water' to 'living with water.' The analysis cites a World Bank assessment that the great flood of 2011 caused damage and losses of approximately 1.43 trillion baht, or 12.6% of GDP. The report Thailand Economic Monitor: Coping with Floods and Droughts estimates that if in 2030 Thailand faces flooding at a level with roughly a one-in-50-year probability, similar to the 2011 event, production losses could exceed 10% of GDP, and could be even higher if supply chains cannot adapt well enough. Singapore once had about 32 square kilometres of flood-prone area in the 1970s, but after decades of continuous investment in upgrading its systems, that has now fallen to less than 0.25 square kilometres, a reduction of more than 99%. For Thailand, in the 2017–2026 fiscal years, the integrated water resource management plan was allocated a total budget of more than 600 billion baht, with the 2025 fiscal year at approximately 62,621 million baht and 2026 at approximately 63,421 million baht. This budget covers water for consumption and use, water for agriculture, drought response, water source rehabilitation, and flood prevention. The World Bank therefore proposes that Thailand use Cost-Benefit Analysis systematically to prioritise flood and drought response measures, alongside investment in infrastructure, early warning systems, and Nature-based Solutions.

Bualuang Securities assesses that the Thai stock market is clearly on an uptrend from the fourth quarter of 2026 through the first half of 2027, with a chance to test 1,780 points in a positive scenario. In its base case, it targets the SET at 1,710 points by the end of 2027, based on SET EPS of 106 baht, down 4% year on year, and a target PER of 16.0 times, about 0.25 standard deviations below the 10-year average. The decline in overall earnings comes mainly from upstream energy, refineries and petrochemicals, as oil prices, refining margins and petrochemical spreads trend down from a high base in 2026. Meanwhile, the earnings growth leaders in 2027 shift to electronics, driven by demand for AI and data center-related components, along with tourism and transport, and consumer goods retail. Analysts cite three positive drivers: the global technology wave supporting exports, investment and electricity demand, with Thai electronics exports expected to grow 55% in 2026 and 40% in 2027, while FDI investment is expected to grow 50% and 25% respectively. The global industrial cycle is still in an early recovery phase that began in March 2026, with the US Manufacturing PMI at 53.0 in August 2026, and foreign capital is likely to keep flowing in. A study of data from 2016 to 2026 found that when six factors were simultaneously above their averages, foreign capital inflows over the following three months were positive 89% of the time, with a median inflow of 34 billion baht. Analysts nonetheless warn of risks from a prolonged war and one more Fed rate hike to 4.25%, which could pressure SET valuations, even though the market still has a cushion from an earnings yield gap of 4.8%, above the 10-year average of 4.0%. They also lay out a three-phase portfolio strategy. Phase one, in the fourth quarter of 2026, uses a barbell strategy focused on PTT, PTTGC, GULF, GPSC, GUNKUL, CRC, COM7, AOT, AWC, CENTEL, BH and BDMS, while gradually accumulating CBG, ICHI and BGRIM. Phase two, in the first half of 2027, rotates from cyclical winners to anti-commodity and earnings recovery plays. Phase three, in the second half of 2027, shifts to a core-satellite strategy.

The International Monetary Fund, or IMF, has approved an additional $138 million loan for El Salvador, even though the country has not fully met the criteria related to Bitcoin. The disbursement is part of the Extended Fund Facility program between the IMF and El Salvador, a long-term financial assistance framework agreed upon earlier. The latest approval reflects that the institution is continuing to provide support under the program even as El Salvador's Bitcoin policy remains a concern. The IMF had previously set conditions requiring Salvadoran authorities to limit the risks from holding Bitcoin and to reduce the use of the Chivo Wallet. This news was reported by EFINANCE Thai news agency.

Citi said U.S. equities could face increased political risk ahead of the Nov. 3 midterm elections, with historical patterns pointing to weaker performance into the vote followed by a recovery as election uncertainty fades. The bank said midterm election years have historically produced the weakest equity performance of the four-year presidential cycle, and it expects an election-related risk premium to build before voting, typically beginning about 50 business days ahead of the election and peaking in the weeks before it. Citi's analysis suggests the main equity impact could come from uncertainty rather than the election result itself, with stocks historically selling off ahead of midterms before staging a relief rally into year-end regardless of the eventual outcome. A shift toward divided government could also affect markets through fiscal policy expectations, as divided Congresses have historically been supportive for bonds because political gridlock reduces expectations for major fiscal stimulus or sweeping legislation. The bank cautioned that the current cycle has additional complications, including a large U.S. fiscal deficit and debt-ceiling negotiations expected in 2027, which could limit how much historical election patterns translate into market moves this time.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the recent rise in Treasury yields largely reflects a broader global increase in borrowing costs and does not, by itself, warrant concern. In an interview with Axios published on Saturday, Bessent said he would be more concerned if U.S. yields were rising for reasons specific to the country's financial markets, noting that investors were not simply shifting out of Treasuries and into German or Japanese government bonds. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield recently climbed to its highest level since 2002, while yields in Europe and Japan have also reached multi-decade highs, driven by persistent inflation concerns, rising government debt and increased borrowing linked to artificial-intelligence infrastructure. Bessent also discussed U.S. involvement in efforts to support Japan's currency, saying Washington and Tokyo have coordinated in the foreign-exchange market, including a joint intervention aimed at supporting the yen. He rejected concerns that the rapid expansion of artificial-intelligence investment is necessarily creating a speculative bubble, pointing to major technology companies such as Microsoft, Alphabet's Google and Meta Platforms and arguing their heavy AI spending is supported by substantial revenues and continued business growth.

The Trump administration will soon start paying $90 each to more than 20M Medicare enrollees to help them pay for their Part B premiums, the latest financial incentive offered by the White House ahead of the midterm elections. The one-time payments are expected to reach eligible enrollees by direct deposit or check in early October, according to a White House fact sheet on Friday. Of the roughly 64M participants in the government-backed healthcare program, some enrollees, including recipients of Medicaid for premium payments, will not be eligible. The funds will come from the Medicare Improvement Fund, which Congress established in 2008 with $2.2B to improve the Medicare fee-for-service program; Trump called it a pointless slush fund that Democrats created. Medicare Part B covers doctor visits, treatments administered in doctors' offices, and preventative tests, and the payments are separate from the $500 checks the administration began sending to nearly 1M Americans enrolled in Affordable Care Act plans last Thursday.

Patricia Mongkhonvanit, Director-General of the Comptroller General's Department, disclosed that budget disbursements for fiscal year 2026 and the carry-over funds reserved from the fiscal 2025 budget, covering the period from 1 October 2025 to 30 September 2026, involved a total budget of 4.101 trillion baht. Total spending amounted to 4.178 trillion baht, or 101.86%, which is 3.16% higher than the same period of the previous fiscal year, while actual disbursements totalled 3.922 trillion baht, or 95.63%, 5.35% higher than the same period a year earlier. For the fiscal 2026 annual expenditure budget of 3.781 trillion baht, total spending came to 3.868 trillion baht, or 102.31%, exceeding the target by 2.31%, with disbursements totalling 3.623 trillion baht, or 95.83%, above target by 2.83%. As for capital expenditure, which forms part of the fiscal 2026 annual budget, the allocation stood at 781.875 billion baht, with total spending of 779.620 billion baht, or 99.71%, slightly below target by 0.29%, while disbursements totalled 586.944 billion baht, or 75.07%, exceeding the target by 0.07% and coming in 8.63% higher than the same period of the previous fiscal year. Patricia added that the policy to accelerate commitment creation and proactive disbursement pursued by Ekniti Nitithanprapas, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Finance, has enabled agencies to disburse better than the set targets. For the fiscal 2027 budget, the Cabinet has already approved measures to accelerate budget disbursement and public spending, and has instructed budget-owning agencies to speed up commitments under both the carry-over funds and the capital expenditure budget for completion within the second quarter.

Jesada Chantraprapha, Deputy Permanent Secretary of the Bangkok Metropolitan Administration, said at the joint flood situation press center at Government House that the BMA is accelerating drainage to minimize the impact on residents in outer areas as much as possible. The current situation of northern runoff and seawater intrusion has not yet had a significant impact, but rainfall that may increase further still needs to be monitored. For water management in each area, the BMA has coordinated with the Lak Hok community to consider opening additional sluice gates on Khlong Prem Prachakon to draw water from Khlong Rangsit Prayunsak and the northern areas. In the Khlong Song area of Pathum Thani Province, the BMA is rushing to open sluice gates on Khlong Lat Phrao, Khlong Mo Taek, and Khlong Phraya Suren to ease the hardship of residents in Lam Luk Ka District, in Lat Sawai Subdistrict and Khukhot Subdistrict. On Khlong Saen Saep, water is being drained rapidly outside the Min Buri sluice gate, while on Khlong Prawet Burirom, water is being drained rapidly at the Lat Krabang gate to reduce the impact in the area of King Mongkut's Institute of Technology Ladkrabang and surrounding areas. Additional pumps are also being installed to assist the Keha Thani, Keha Rom Klao, and Nawathani communities. Meanwhile, Bangkok residents affected by the floods can now register to claim relief payments through two main channels: the Tang Rat application and the Bangkok system website at claim.bangkok.go.th

With the first round of Brazil's presidential election taking place Sunday, Wall Street is gearing up with starkly different market predictions depending on the outcome of the neck-and-neck race between 80-year-old leftist Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and 45-year-old right-winger Flavio Bolsonaro. In short, if Bolsonaro wins, Wall Street expects a rally in the country's bonds, currency and stocks. Kalshi markets now show Bolsonaro favored to win 60% to Lula's 39%, though prediction markets are prohibited in Brazil and may not reflect local sentiment. JPMorgan analysts say that if Brazil enters another period of reform, interest rates could decline to their neutral level, 6% in real terms and 10% in nominal terms, and they would be thinking about MSCI Brazil upside potential between 21% and 41%, with the forward P/E moving from a current 8.6 to as high as 13.3. JPMorgan also calls the currency outcome bimodal, with USD/BRL moving to 5.50 if Lula wins and 4.90 if Bolsonaro wins.

Warawut Silpa-archa, Minister of Industry, disclosed the results of a survey of flood impact across 55 provinces, finding that 4,216 establishments were damaged, comprising 126 industrial factories, 4,006 SMEs, 82 community enterprises or OTOP businesses, and 2 mines, with total damage valued at 147.84 million baht. The province with the most affected establishments was Bangkok with 1,114, followed by Samut Prakan with 499, Prachin Buri with 405, Rayong with 272, and Pathum Thani with 232. When assessed by damage value, Sa Kaeo was hit hardest at 58.17 million baht, followed by Nakhon Pathom at 16.65 million baht, Samut Prakan at 14.34 million baht, Pathum Thani at 14.15 million baht, and Chanthaburi at 9.58 million baht. The survey found that 95% of operators need financial assistance, while the other 5% need other forms of help such as water drainage, sandbags, repair of buildings and machinery, and fee exemptions, with more than 200 having already filed for assistance. The ministry has also opened hotline 1564 to receive complaints and has instructed provincial industry offices to coordinate with large factories and mines in the area to distribute food, drinking water, and essential supplies. On rehabilitation measures, the ministry is preparing to send teams of business diagnosticians into the field to assess business health and provide advice, while the Department of Industrial Works is preparing to issue a notification exempting annual fees for factories in affected areas. On financial measures, the Small and Medium Enterprise Development Bank of Thailand, or SME D Bank, is preparing to suspend principal and interest payments for up to 12 months and to extend emergency loans to those directly affected worth 10% of their existing credit line, up to 200,000 baht, at an annual MLR interest rate, with repayment over up to 3 years and a 12-month principal payment holiday. In addition, the Department of Industrial Promotion, or DIP, is preparing a rapid-disbursement disaster recovery loan with a total credit line of 50 million baht, under which existing good-standing borrowers will automatically receive a 4-month suspension of principal and interest payments, a 50% reduction in monthly installments for 6 months, an extension of repayment terms of up to 2 years, and the option to refinance. New operators can apply for loans of up to 1 million baht per business at a 0% interest rate for the first 6 months. DIP has also joined with provincial industry offices to provide consultations by phone and video call in areas still flooded, and is preparing to go into the field to help immediately next week in areas where the water has receded.