Bualuang Securities expects SET to test 1,780 points in Q4 on tech boom and foreign inflows

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Bualuang Securities assesses that the Thai stock market is clearly on an uptrend from the fourth quarter of 2026 through the first half of 2027, with a chance to test 1,780 points in a positive scenario. In its base case, it targets the SET at 1,710 points by the end of 2027, based on SET EPS of 106 baht, down 4% year on year, and a target PER of 16.0 times, about 0.25 standard deviations below the 10-year average. The decline in overall earnings comes mainly from upstream energy, refineries and petrochemicals, as oil prices, refining margins and petrochemical spreads trend down from a high base in 2026. Meanwhile, the earnings growth leaders in 2027 shift to electronics, driven by demand for AI and data center-related components, along with tourism and transport, and consumer goods retail. Analysts cite three positive drivers: the global technology wave supporting exports, investment and electricity demand, with Thai electronics exports expected to grow 55% in 2026 and 40% in 2027, while FDI investment is expected to grow 50% and 25% respectively. The global industrial cycle is still in an early recovery phase that began in March 2026, with the US Manufacturing PMI at 53.0 in August 2026, and foreign capital is likely to keep flowing in. A study of data from 2016 to 2026 found that when six factors were simultaneously above their averages, foreign capital inflows over the following three months were positive 89% of the time, with a median inflow of 34 billion baht. Analysts nonetheless warn of risks from a prolonged war and one more Fed rate hike to 4.25%, which could pressure SET valuations, even though the market still has a cushion from an earnings yield gap of 4.8%, above the 10-year average of 4.0%. They also lay out a three-phase portfolio strategy. Phase one, in the fourth quarter of 2026, uses a barbell strategy focused on PTT, PTTGC, GULF, GPSC, GUNKUL, CRC, COM7, AOT, AWC, CENTEL, BH and BDMS, while gradually accumulating CBG, ICHI and BGRIM. Phase two, in the first half of 2027, rotates from cyclical winners to anti-commodity and earnings recovery plays. Phase three, in the second half of 2027, shifts to a core-satellite strategy.

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