Soybean Futures

The Bloomberg Agriculture Spot Index, which tracks the prices of 10 key crops from soybeans to coffee, jumped 13% in the three months through September, the largest quarterly gain since March 2022. Bloomberg News reported that the main driver was the intensifying fighting between Russia and Ukraine, which has disrupted shipments of agricultural goods out of the Black Sea region, one of the world's key sources of grain and oilseed exports. Extreme weather has also hit wheat and corn production in major growing areas from the United States to Europe. Grain prices drew further support from China's continued purchases of US soybeans and from the US-China leaders' summit in late September, after which both sides announced that China would cut import tariffs on a number of US agricultural products, including wheat and corn, while keeping additional tariffs on US soybeans. Over the past quarter, corn and wheat prices in Chicago both rose about 15%, while soybean prices gained 13%. The intensifying El Niño phenomenon is also posing risks to agricultural output in many regions, and India has just come through its weakest monsoon season in a decade, which could raise the risk of higher food prices.

Soybean futures at the Chicago Board of Trade recovered on Tuesday, September 29, after sliding to a four-week low the previous day, supported by traders' bargain-hunting, as the market turned its attention to the release of U.S. agricultural stocks data and rainy weather that is hampering harvest progress in the Midwest. The November soybean contract rose 9.50 cents, or 0.74%, to close at $12.9775 a bushel. The December wheat contract rose 4.00 cents, or 0.58%, to close at $6.9275 a bushel, while the December corn contract fell 1.00 cent, or 0.19%, to close at $5.2200 a bushel. Earlier, on Monday, September 28, soybean prices fell sharply on disappointment over the outcome of the summit between the United States and China, but the lower prices prompted investors to step in and bargain-hunt before the U.S. Department of Agriculture, or USDA, releases its quarterly agricultural stocks report on Wednesday, September 30. Traders were also adjusting positions ahead of the end of the month and the end of the quarter. Weather forecasters expect continued rain to delay the harvest through next week, and analysts warned of the risk that the rain could damage crops and cause seeds to sprout in the pods. The USDA reported after the grain markets closed on Monday that U.S. farmers had harvested 17% of the soybean crop and 18% of the corn crop as of Sunday, September 27, which, although in line with the five-year average, was still below analysts' expectations of 20% for both crops, with several states, including Iowa, behind schedule in harvest progress.

President Donald Trump is preparing to welcome Chinese leader President Xi Jinping to the White House on Sept 24, their second meeting this year following a summit in Beijing in May. Xi will arrive in Washington, D.C. on Sept 23, and Trump plans to greet him personally at Joint Base Andrews before a welcome ceremony on the South Lawn of the White House, marking the first state-level official visit by a Chinese leader since 2015. The main item on the negotiating table is the extension of the trade truce agreement set to expire on Nov 10. China wants the truce to last until the end of Trump's term, while U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer has said a 3-6 month framework is acceptable to the United States, because China has fulfilled only about two-thirds of its rare earth commitments under the trade deal. The U.S. is watching for confirmation of China's order for 200 Boeing aircraft and agricultural goods, especially soybeans, worth 29 billion dollars in 2024, as well as a reciprocal tariff reduction package worth 30 billion dollars. China accounts for roughly 70% of global rare earth mining, 85% of refining capacity and about 90% of alloy and magnet production, giving it significant leverage. On Taiwan, China wants the United States to end arms sales and to change its wording from not supporting to opposing Taiwan independence. Analysts at Bank of America Global Research assess that the most likely scenario is an extension of the trade truce by one year.

CBOT commodity contracts rose on Tuesday, September 15. The November soybean contract gained 14.50 cents, or 1.11%, to close at $13.1875 per bushel, after the National Oilseed Processors Association, or NOPA, said its members crushed 205.456 million bushels of soybeans in August, the lowest level in 11 months, pushing soybean oil stocks down to their lowest since November 2024. The December wheat contract rose 6.50 cents, or 0.90%, to close at $7.2850 per bushel, amid a fresh wave of concern over attacks on infrastructure in the Black Sea region, as hopes for a de-escalation of the conflict began to fade. The December corn contract gained 2.50 cents, or 0.47%, to close at $5.3575 per bushel, tracking a surge in crude oil prices that helped stoke demand for crops used to produce biofuels. On South American production, Conab, Brazil's national crop agency, forecast Brazil's 2026/27 soybean crop at 181.64 million tonnes, up 0.7% from the previous year, but still below the US Department of Agriculture's estimate of 186 million tonnes.

December wheat futures on the CBOT commodities market fell 3.25 cents, or 0.45%, to close at $7.2200 per bushel on Monday, September 14, after touching an intraday low of $7.1000 per bushel, the weakest level since August 26. Prices slid after U.S. President Donald Trump said Ukraine and Russia had reached a mutual agreement not to strike each other's energy infrastructure targets. Meanwhile, November soybean futures rose 7.75 cents, or 0.60%, to close at $13.0425 per bushel, lifted by a 2% jump in crude oil prices amid Middle East tensions and concerns that heavy rain across the Midwest, including Iowa, will delay the harvest. December corn futures rose 3 cents, or 0.57%, to close at $5.3325 per bushel, tracking soybeans and crude oil. After the close, the U.S. Department of Agriculture reported that the corn harvest was 8% complete and the soybean harvest 6% complete, above the five-year averages of 6% and 3% respectively. U.S. soybean export inspections for the latest week totaled 672,759 tons, above the market's expected range of 300,000 to 600,000 tons, ahead of Chinese President Xi Jinping's trip to Washington.

Grain futures at the Chicago Board of Trade closed higher across the board on Thursday, September 10, with the November soybean contract jumping 22.75 cents, or 1.74%, to settle at $13.3225 a bushel, touching a three-year high and a contract-life record, driven by China's steady purchases of U.S. soybeans. Four traders said China bought about 1 million tonnes of U.S. soybeans this week, nearly half of the 25 million tonnes the White House said China has committed to buying from the United States annually through 2028, ahead of Chinese President Xi Jinping's visit to Washington later this month. The December corn contract rose 6.00 cents, or 1.14%, to settle at $5.3375 a bushel, and the December wheat contract gained 12.50 cents, or 1.72%, to settle at $7.4125 a bushel. Crude oil's 4% surge, with Brent crude touching $105 a barrel after the largest jump in tanker attacks since the Iran war began, was another factor supporting soybean prices, as soybeans are a feedstock for biofuel. The market is closely watching the U.S. Department of Agriculture's supply and demand report due Friday, with analysts expecting the USDA to cut its U.S. corn production forecast. Wheat prices drew support from retaliatory strikes between Ukraine and Russia that have disrupted grain exports in the region, including an attack on the Ukrainian city of Dnipro that damaged a Bunge plant.

China has bought 14 to 15 cargoes of soybeans from the United States this week, amounting to roughly 1 million tons, ahead of Chinese leader President Xi Jinping's trip to Washington later this month. The US Department of Agriculture reported on Wednesday, September 9, that 340,000 tons of US soybeans were sold to China and another 100,000 tons to undisclosed destinations. The latest purchases bring China's total soybean buying from the US to nearly half of the 25 million tons it has pledged to purchase annually through 2028, as announced by the White House. Sinograin, China's state grain reserve company, is the buyer of the soybean lot, which is scheduled to ship from US Gulf Coast ports between December and February.

Wheat futures surged to their highest level in 3-1/2 years after Russia rejected a proposal to halt attacks in the Black Sea and launched strikes on Ukrainian port infrastructure and border crossings, dashing hopes for a safe grain shipping corridor and sending corn and soybean prices soaring. December wheat futures rose 8.50 cents, or 1.10%, to close at $7.8250 per bushel, after touching an intraday high of $7.9225, the highest since February 15, 2023. December corn futures gained 8.25 cents, or 1.53%, to settle at $5.4600 per bushel, hitting a three-year high. November soybean futures climbed 29.75 cents, or 2.31%, to close at $13.1775 per bushel, marking a more than 2-1/2 year high. Ukrainian officials said Russian forces shelled ports and border crossings near Romania in the Odesa region in the southern Black Sea area. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Russia deliberately targeted the crossing points to Romania and infrastructure used for agricultural exports. The escalating tensions have nearly halted shipping routes through Black Sea and Azov Sea ports, which account for 70% of Russia's grain exports, raising concerns that exports from both Russia and Ukraine could be disrupted for an extended period.

US soybean futures surged to their highest level in nearly three years after the Trump administration announced waivers to renewable fuel requirements, which was more positive for biofuel demand prospects than the market had anticipated. The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) announced on Monday that it would grant a total of 1.76 billion waiver credits for compliance with the 2025 requirements, marking the highest volume of small refinery biofuel exemptions since 2017. However, the EPA decided to reallocate the difference between the projected and actual waiver volumes for 2025 under the requirements for 2026 and 2027, meaning the lost biofuel demand was not entirely eliminated but deferred to subsequent years. Following the announcement, Chicago soybean futures rose as much as 1% on Tuesday, reaching their highest level since December 2023, while soybean oil prices climbed more than 2.4% at one point during trading, reflecting the market's positive outlook on US demand for feedstocks used in biofuel production.

Bualuang Securities stated that Thai Vegetable Oil Public Company Limited, or TVO, reported Q2/2026 net profit of 877 million baht, up 35% year-on-year and 24% quarter-on-quarter, with revenue of 8.28 billion baht, up 24% year-on-year and 7% quarter-on-quarter, supported by higher sales volume after capacity expansion since late 2025. Sales of soybean meal and soybean oil increased more than 20% year-on-year, despite lower average selling prices. Gross margin recovered to 13.7% from 10.8% in Q1/2026, but still below 16.1% in Q2/2025. For Q3/2026, the outlook remains positive due to slightly higher selling prices for soybean meal and soybean oil, while soybean costs are expected to remain stable, supporting margins. On the supply side, global soybean supply for 2026/27 remains high, with the USDA raising its US production forecast to 4.52 billion bushels and ending stocks to 320 million bushels. Brazil is a key variable due to El Niño uncertainty, while demand from China continues to support prices, with US new-crop soybean outstanding sales at 8.3 million tons, of which about 3.1 million tons are to China. The soybean oil business is also supported by high vegetable oil prices, with palm oil up 17% YTD and soybean oil up 40% YTD as of mid-August. In 1H2026, soybean oil accounted for 33% of revenue and soybean meal 53%, while 88% of sales came from the domestic market. The research house views that short-term profit trends remain good, but consensus expects 2027 profit to decline 13% year-on-year, making TVO's key highlight its dividends, with consensus expecting a dividend yield of around 7% per year, while the stock trades at a 2027 PER of around 10.3 times.

Tisco Securities has maintained its buy recommendation on Thai Vegetable Oil Public Company Limited, or TVO, with a fair value of 33.75 baht, and raised its 2026 profit forecast by 16% to 1.2 billion baht, citing a stronger-than-expected gross margin trend. It expects core profit in the third quarter of 2026 at around 750 million baht, up 74% from the same period last year but down 3% from the previous quarter, as soybean costs are expected to remain stable while domestic soybean meal prices are likely to rise by a low single-digit percentage, pushing gross margin above 13%. Management noted that the cost structure of imported soybeans follows an inverted-U shape through the year, with the second and third quarters of 2026 being the periods when the company enjoys a cost advantage, while costs are expected to gradually increase in the fourth quarter of 2026. However, 2026 operating performance is likely to beat the original target, under which the company aimed for total revenue growth of about 15%, while the first half of 2026 grew more than 20% and machinery is running at full capacity. Revenue growth in the first half of 2026 came more from sales volume than from price increases, with soybean meal sales volume up 30% from a year earlier while average selling price fell about 7% and unit costs declined 7-8%. Soybean oil sales volume rose 28%, while average selling price fell 3-6% and costs declined 1%, reflecting that growth came from volume and procurement efficiency rather than temporary margin gains, which Tisco views as more sustainable. For 2027, growth will not be supported by volume because the company has production capacity of 7,000 tonnes per day and a utilisation rate of 99%. Growth will therefore have to come from shifting the product mix from crude oil to refined oil, expanding into higher-margin products, and increasing advertising and promotional spending to raise realised value per tonne. On the next capacity expansion, management estimates investment of about 4.5 to 6.0 billion baht, with a new plant ideally having minimum capacity of about 3,000 tonnes per day, within an optimal range of 2,000 to 5,000 tonnes per day, and investment of around 1.5 to 2.0 million baht per tonne of daily capacity. However, expansion is still constrained by city planning, as the area in Nakhon Pathom province cannot expand capacity under the current city plan, so the company must wait for a new city plan. At the same time, the company is considering options to build a new plant in the central region, without yet disclosing the location, and management views demand as not a major concern and manageable. Tisco also sees a potential profit driver for TVO in 2027 from the El Nino phenomenon, as El Nino normally affects palm oil supply, which could indirectly affect demand for and prices of soybean oil. Meanwhile, risks to Brazilian soybean output could push soybean prices above 13 US dollars per bushel. Tisco maintains its buy rating on TVO using a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.8 times, or minus 0.5 standard deviation versus the five-year historical average. Key risks include lower-than-expected market share, weaker domestic livestock product prices, and a larger-than-expected decline in global soybean prices. Tisco expects a 2026 dividend payout of about 8%, or 2.46 baht per share, compared with a dividend of 0.90 baht per share in the first half of 2026.

November soybean futures on the CBOT closed up nearly 2% on Monday, supported by strong U.S. soybean crush volumes, higher crude oil prices, and concerns over the U.S. average yield outlook. November soybean futures rose 23.50 cents, or 1.97%, to settle at 12.1600 dollars per bushel. December corn futures rose 6.25 cents, or 1.29%, to settle at 4.8950 dollars per bushel. December wheat futures fell 0.25 cent, or 0.04%, to settle at 6.8925 dollars per bushel on profit-taking, although prolonged Black Sea export problems helped limit the downside. Data from the National Oilseed Processors Association showed its members crushed 216.647 million bushels of soybeans in July, up 1.1% from June and up 10.7% from July a year earlier. China has already purchased about 7 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans.

CBOT wheat futures closed up more than 3% on Friday, as the prolonged Russia-Ukraine war raised concerns that global wheat supply will shrink. September wheat rose 22 cents, or 3.37%, to settle at 6.7475 dollars per bushel. December corn gained 11.25 cents, or 2.38%, to 4.8325 dollars per bushel, while November soybeans added 10.25 cents, or 0.86%, to 11.9250 dollars per bushel. Analysts at Blue Line Futures said traders are building a larger risk premium into wheat prices because Russia and Ukraine together account for more than a quarter of global wheat exports, and most of those shipments move through Black Sea ports. The US Department of Agriculture also lowered its forecast for US wheat production in the WASDE report. Soybean futures were supported by news that China bought an additional 136,000 metric tons of US soybeans, and by oil prices rising more than 1% after reports of an attack on an oil tanker in the Strait of Hormuz.

Soybean futures are posting firmer midday action with contracts up 2 to 5 cents. The cmdtyView national average cash bean price is up 4 1/2 cents at $11.45 1/4. USDA reported a private export sale of 125,000 metric tons of soybeans to China for 2026/27 shipment, and weekly export sales data showed new crop sales of 1.76 million metric tons, the second largest for the marketing year and more than triple the same week last year. USDA's Crop Production report estimated 2026 soybean yield at 52.7 bushels per acre with production at 4.519 billion bushels, 44 million bushels larger than the July WASDE projection. The monthly WASDE showed old crop ending stocks at 325 million bushels and projected 2026/27 ending stocks at 320 million bushels, up 10 million bushels from July.

Corn prices on the Chicago Board of Trade surged to their highest level in two weeks on Wednesday, August 12, while soybean and wheat contracts also rose after the U.S. Department of Agriculture lowered its forecast for corn ending stocks for the 2026-2027 season to 1.653 billion bushels from 1.790 billion bushels, and cut its soybean yield estimate to 52.7 bushels per acre from 53.0 bushels per acre. December corn futures rose 20.25 cents, or 4.40 percent, to settle at 4.8075 dollars per bushel. September wheat futures gained 22.50 cents, or 3.57 percent, to close at 6.5275 dollars per bushel, and November soybean futures advanced 14.50 cents, or 1.24 percent, to settle at 11.8325 dollars per bushel. The market also drew support from supply disruption concerns after Ukraine sent drones to attack the port of Novorossiysk, Russia's main wheat export port on the Black Sea, forcing the two largest grain transshipment terminals to temporarily suspend operations.

Soybean futures are trading higher on Wednesday after the USDA's first official crop estimate raised production. The USDA's Crop Production report pegged 2026 soybean yield at 52.7 bushels per acre, with planted acreage raised by 1.4 million to 86.8 million acres and harvested acres at 85.8 million, lifting production to 4.519 billion bushels, 44 million bushels above the July WASDE projection. The WASDE report showed old crop ending stocks at 325 million bushels, down 5 million from last month, while projected 2026/27 ending stocks rose 10 million bushels to 320 million. USDA also reported a private export sale of 224,000 metric tons of soybeans to China for 2026/27 shipment, and Chinese state stockpiler Sinograin sold 461,000 metric tons of imported beans at $596.39 per metric ton.

Soybean futures are trading 3 to 7 cents higher Monday morning, supported by a private export sale of 238,000 metric tons of soybeans to China for the 2026/27 marketing year reported on Friday. The cmdtyView national average cash bean price was up a penny at $11.33 ¾. Commitment of Traders data showed speculators cut their net long position in soybean futures and options by 29,535 contracts to 125,466 contracts in the week ending August 4. A Reuters survey of traders expects the USDA to peg the US soybean yield at 52.9 bushels per acre, with harvested acres seen 163,000 higher than the June report at 84.564 million acres and production at 4.472 billion bushels.

Global food prices rose in July to their highest level in more than three years, amid concerns over production volumes and key grain export routes. The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations reported that its world food price index increased 0.6 percent from the previous month, reaching the highest since January 2023, driven mainly by higher prices for cereals, sugar, and vegetable oils. A major risk stems from the Black Sea region after attacks between Russia and Ukraine intensified, raising concerns over grain exports and helping push wheat prices to a two-year high in June. Meanwhile, Europe is facing one of its most severe drops in grain production on record due to extreme heat, and key growing areas in the United States are experiencing drought, increasing risks to corn and soybean output. Food price risks could rise further in the near term due to the prospect of an unusually strong El Niño, coupled with fertilizer supply issues and still-high energy costs.

CBOT grain futures closed higher across the board on Monday, with September wheat surging 11.75 cents, or 1.84 percent, to settle at 6.5100 dollars per bushel, driven by concerns that escalating fighting between Russia and Ukraine could disrupt exports from the Black Sea region. December corn rose 8.50 cents, or 1.83 percent, to close at 4.7250 dollars per bushel, while November soybeans added 4.75 cents, or 0.40 percent, to end at 11.9225 dollars per bushel, supported by worries over US growing conditions and news of fresh soybean export sales totaling 488,000 metric tons to China and another 136,150 metric tons to unknown destinations. However, falling crude oil prices and rains in parts of the US Midwest pressured corn and soybeans for much of the trading session.

In commodity markets on the 3rd, WTI crude oil futures plunged while NY gold futures extended their losses. NY crude oil futures for September delivery, WTI, fell $4.33 to $80.34 a barrel. NY gold futures for August delivery dropped $16.50 to $4,090.50 a troy ounce. Meanwhile, Chicago soybean futures for November delivery rose 4.75 cents to $11.9225 a bushel, and Chicago corn futures for December delivery gained 8.50 cents to $4.7250 a bushel. The Baltic Dry Index climbed 111 points to 2,843 points.

China booked at least 13 cargoes of US soybeans, or roughly 800,000 tonnes, last Friday, taking advantage of lower market prices, according to two Asia-based grain traders. The latest purchases lift China's total new-crop US soybean orders to around 5 million tonnes, signalling that China continues to step up imports to replenish stockpiles amid favourable pricing and still-strong domestic demand.

Bunge raised its full-year adjusted profit forecast after beating Wall Street estimates for second-quarter earnings, helped by strong performances in its soybean and softseed processing businesses amid improving market conditions. The company now expects 2026 adjusted earnings of $9.25 to $9.75 per share, up from its previous forecast of $9.00 to $9.50. Net sales from soybean processing and refining were $12.07 billion, compared with $7.75 billion a year ago, while the softseed processing and refining segment reported quarterly net sales of $4.09 billion, up from $1.53 billion a year earlier. U.S. corn and soybean prices have climbed sharply since the start of the Iran war, prompting farmers to step up sales of grain they had held back from last year's harvest amid a prolonged period of weak prices, spurring sales across the Midwest to major grain handlers such as Archer-Daniels-Midland and Bunge.