Soybean Oil Futures

The Indian government announced a reduction in basic customs duty rates on vegetable oil imports, covering both crude and refined oils, including palm oil, soybean oil, and sunflower oil, in a bid to curb soaring prices ahead of the major festival season. Crude palm oil and crude soybean oil will see duties cut from 10% to 5%, while refined palm oil and refined soybean oil will drop from 32.5% to 27.5%. Crude sunflower oil will be reduced from 10% to 0%, and refined sunflower oil from 32.5% to 22.5%. When the Agriculture Infrastructure and Development Cess and the Social Welfare Surcharge are included, the total effective import duty on crude palm oil and crude soybean oil will fall from 16.5% to 11%, and on crude sunflower oil from 16.5% to 5.5%. The tax cuts follow a nearly 20% rise in vegetable oil prices in India over the past year and are aimed at boosting consumption during the religious festival season between September and November. India currently relies on imports for about two-thirds of its total vegetable oil demand, sourcing from Malaysia, Indonesia, Argentina, Russia, and Ukraine.

US soybean futures surged to their highest level in nearly three years after the Trump administration announced waivers to renewable fuel requirements, which was more positive for biofuel demand prospects than the market had anticipated. The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) announced on Monday that it would grant a total of 1.76 billion waiver credits for compliance with the 2025 requirements, marking the highest volume of small refinery biofuel exemptions since 2017. However, the EPA decided to reallocate the difference between the projected and actual waiver volumes for 2025 under the requirements for 2026 and 2027, meaning the lost biofuel demand was not entirely eliminated but deferred to subsequent years. Following the announcement, Chicago soybean futures rose as much as 1% on Tuesday, reaching their highest level since December 2023, while soybean oil prices climbed more than 2.4% at one point during trading, reflecting the market's positive outlook on US demand for feedstocks used in biofuel production.

Bualuang Securities stated that Thai Vegetable Oil Public Company Limited, or TVO, reported Q2/2026 net profit of 877 million baht, up 35% year-on-year and 24% quarter-on-quarter, with revenue of 8.28 billion baht, up 24% year-on-year and 7% quarter-on-quarter, supported by higher sales volume after capacity expansion since late 2025. Sales of soybean meal and soybean oil increased more than 20% year-on-year, despite lower average selling prices. Gross margin recovered to 13.7% from 10.8% in Q1/2026, but still below 16.1% in Q2/2025. For Q3/2026, the outlook remains positive due to slightly higher selling prices for soybean meal and soybean oil, while soybean costs are expected to remain stable, supporting margins. On the supply side, global soybean supply for 2026/27 remains high, with the USDA raising its US production forecast to 4.52 billion bushels and ending stocks to 320 million bushels. Brazil is a key variable due to El Niño uncertainty, while demand from China continues to support prices, with US new-crop soybean outstanding sales at 8.3 million tons, of which about 3.1 million tons are to China. The soybean oil business is also supported by high vegetable oil prices, with palm oil up 17% YTD and soybean oil up 40% YTD as of mid-August. In 1H2026, soybean oil accounted for 33% of revenue and soybean meal 53%, while 88% of sales came from the domestic market. The research house views that short-term profit trends remain good, but consensus expects 2027 profit to decline 13% year-on-year, making TVO's key highlight its dividends, with consensus expecting a dividend yield of around 7% per year, while the stock trades at a 2027 PER of around 10.3 times.

Tisco Securities has maintained its buy recommendation on Thai Vegetable Oil Public Company Limited, or TVO, with a fair value of 33.75 baht, and raised its 2026 profit forecast by 16% to 1.2 billion baht, citing a stronger-than-expected gross margin trend. It expects core profit in the third quarter of 2026 at around 750 million baht, up 74% from the same period last year but down 3% from the previous quarter, as soybean costs are expected to remain stable while domestic soybean meal prices are likely to rise by a low single-digit percentage, pushing gross margin above 13%. Management noted that the cost structure of imported soybeans follows an inverted-U shape through the year, with the second and third quarters of 2026 being the periods when the company enjoys a cost advantage, while costs are expected to gradually increase in the fourth quarter of 2026. However, 2026 operating performance is likely to beat the original target, under which the company aimed for total revenue growth of about 15%, while the first half of 2026 grew more than 20% and machinery is running at full capacity. Revenue growth in the first half of 2026 came more from sales volume than from price increases, with soybean meal sales volume up 30% from a year earlier while average selling price fell about 7% and unit costs declined 7-8%. Soybean oil sales volume rose 28%, while average selling price fell 3-6% and costs declined 1%, reflecting that growth came from volume and procurement efficiency rather than temporary margin gains, which Tisco views as more sustainable. For 2027, growth will not be supported by volume because the company has production capacity of 7,000 tonnes per day and a utilisation rate of 99%. Growth will therefore have to come from shifting the product mix from crude oil to refined oil, expanding into higher-margin products, and increasing advertising and promotional spending to raise realised value per tonne. On the next capacity expansion, management estimates investment of about 4.5 to 6.0 billion baht, with a new plant ideally having minimum capacity of about 3,000 tonnes per day, within an optimal range of 2,000 to 5,000 tonnes per day, and investment of around 1.5 to 2.0 million baht per tonne of daily capacity. However, expansion is still constrained by city planning, as the area in Nakhon Pathom province cannot expand capacity under the current city plan, so the company must wait for a new city plan. At the same time, the company is considering options to build a new plant in the central region, without yet disclosing the location, and management views demand as not a major concern and manageable. Tisco also sees a potential profit driver for TVO in 2027 from the El Nino phenomenon, as El Nino normally affects palm oil supply, which could indirectly affect demand for and prices of soybean oil. Meanwhile, risks to Brazilian soybean output could push soybean prices above 13 US dollars per bushel. Tisco maintains its buy rating on TVO using a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.8 times, or minus 0.5 standard deviation versus the five-year historical average. Key risks include lower-than-expected market share, weaker domestic livestock product prices, and a larger-than-expected decline in global soybean prices. Tisco expects a 2026 dividend payout of about 8%, or 2.46 baht per share, compared with a dividend of 0.90 baht per share in the first half of 2026.

The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization's World Food Price Index for July came in at 131.1, up 0.6 percent from the previous month and the highest level since January 2023. Tit-for-tat attacks in the Black Sea between Russia and Ukraine, both major wheat producers, pushed up grain prices, which rose 3.4 percent month-on-month, also affected by adverse weather, with wheat prices surging 5.8 percent. Vegetable oils climbed 2.0 percent to their highest since June 2022, as higher crude oil prices driven by escalating Middle East tensions underpinned palm oil and soybean oil prices. Meanwhile, meat and dairy prices declined.

India's edible vegetable oil imports in July 2026 rose to 1.49 million tonnes, the highest level in 10 months, according to trade estimates cited by Reuters. Domestic refiners accelerated stockpiling ahead of the key festival season from August to November, when vegetable oil demand peaks for the year. Palm oil imports jumped 50% month-on-month to 733,000 tonnes, a five-month high, while soybean oil imports rose 32% to 501,000 tonnes, a seven-month high, and sunflower oil imports increased 4% to 253,000 tonnes. Combined imports of the three major vegetable oils climbed 34% from the previous month. Sandeep Bajoria, CEO of Sunvin Group, said Indian vegetable oil refiners are rapidly building inventories after months of slow imports to prepare for festival demand. GGN Research estimates that India's soybean oil imports are likely to stay above 500,000 tonnes per month in August and September, driven by competitive global prices and lower domestic crushing volumes. Analysts view the recovery in import demand from India, the world's largest vegetable oil buyer, as a factor that will help draw down palm oil stocks in Indonesia and Malaysia, support soybean oil exports from Argentina, and potentially boost global futures prices. For Thailand, PCE, a major Thai palm oil exporter, held a 23% market share of the country's total crude palm oil exports in 2025, when Thailand exported a total of 1,227,545 tonnes of crude palm oil.

Soybean futures pushed further into fresh two-year highs at midday, with gains of 5 to 8 cents. The cmdtyView national average cash bean price rose 5 cents to $12.05 1/2, while soymeal futures were $1.30 to $2.00 higher and soy oil futures added 2 to 7 points. USDA reported a private export sale of 126,000 metric tons of soybeans to unknown destinations for the 2026/27 marketing year. Weekly export sales data showed current-year bookings of 56,351 metric tons, within analyst estimates, and forward sales for 2026/27 at 1.537 million metric tons, the second largest for that marketing year and nearly triple the same week last year. Rabobank estimated the Brazilian soybean crop for 2026/27 at 178 million metric tons, down 4 million metric tons from the prior year.

Soybean futures held midweek gains after the National Oilseed Processors Association reported a larger-than-expected June crush. NOPA data showed 214.34 million bushels crushed during June, well above the average trade estimate of 203.99 million bushels and up 15.69% from a year ago. Soybean oil stocks fell to 1.5 billion pounds, below the trade expectation of 1.653 billion pounds and down 13.51% from the end of May. Soybean futures were up 5 to 8 cents, with the cmdtyView national average cash bean price rising 6.25 cents to $11.52. Weather forecasts indicate continued dryness for much of the Western Corn Belt over the next seven days.

Soybean futures surged 43 to 49 cents in the front months at midday Monday, with the cmdtyView national average cash bean price up 43 1/4 cents at $11.32 3/4. Soymeal futures gained $8.50 to $8.80, while soy oil futures rose 68 to 140 points. USDA’s FGIS reported soybean export shipments of 528,350 metric tons for the week ending July 2, up 19% from the prior week and 31.9% above the same week last year, with China as the top destination. Brazilian trade ministry data showed 14.5 million metric tons of soybeans shipped in June, well above the 13.42 million metric tons in the same month last year.

Soybean futures are showing losses of 6 to 9 ¾ cents early on Monday morning. The cmdtyView national average cash bean price is down 2 1/2 cents at $10.76 1/4. Soymeal futures were down 40 cents to $1.80 on the day, while soy oil futures saw front month gains of 2 to 49 points. The updated 7-day QPF from NOAA showed 1 to 3 inches of rain over the next week, mainly in the Eastern half of the Dakotas, Minnesota, eastern Nebraska through the northwest half of Iowa and Wisconsin. Friday's Commitment of Traders report showed spec traders trimming their net long in soybeans by 16,139 contracts to 36,679 contracts. Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg expect the June Acreage report on Tuesday to show 85.2 million soybean acres planted this spring.

Soybean futures closed mixed on Monday, with most front-month contracts steady to down 7 cents while deferred contracts edged fractionally to 1.25 cents higher. The national average cash bean price fell 6.75 cents to $10.64 1/4. Soymeal futures ranged from $1.50 lower to 10 cents higher, and soy oil futures rebounded 67 to 146 points. Crop Progress data showed 93 percent of the US soybean crop emerged by June 21, three percentage points above normal, with condition ratings steady at 66 percent good to excellent. Weekly export inspections totaled just 241,045 metric tons, up 54.8 percent from the prior week but 54.8 percent below the same week last year, with Mexico the top destination at 72,877 metric tons. Speculative funds cut their net long position by another 37,938 contracts to 52,818 contracts in the week ending June 16, according to CFTC data.