Every time an insurer prices a coastal home, or a reinsurer decides to take on hurricane risk for an entire Florida, there's an invisible "brain" behind it — a catastrophe model (cat model) that simulates tens of thousands of hurricanes, floods, and wildfires running across the real map, then answers with a number: "how much damage should we expect per year?" This lesson walks through how a cat model works, why this market is controlled by just two companies, and why a "brain" that sells nothing but data is one of the deepest-moated businesses in all of insurance.
Digital Economy Ministry tests Tomorrow.io technology using LEO satellites and AI for disaster warnings
The Ministry of Digital Economy and Society, or DE, is testing the feasibility, or POC, of technology from the company Tomorrow.io, which uses low Earth orbit, or LEO, satellites equipped with Microwave Sounder instruments to measure water mass in the atmosphere, with AI helping to process the data so that updates can be issued more frequently than once per hour, approaching real-time reporting. Mr. Chaichanok Chidchob, Minister of Digital Economy and Society, said that after the POC period ends, the ministry is still studying and comparing technologies and the cost-effectiveness of the project, since it takes the form of annual service fees rather than an outright purchase, and the ministry is open to other companies with similar technology coming forward to propose solutions, for transparency and to prevent accusations of locking in specifications. The project will be carried out within the agency's annual budget framework and does not need to be submitted to the Cabinet for approval. At the same time, the Ministry of Digital Economy and Society is also adjusting its disaster warning criteria, from previously waiting for confidence of more than 90% to issuing warnings once the system assesses a risk of about 60-70%, and it is cooperating with the Ministry of Higher Education, Science, Research and Innovation to push forward the One Map project and to push for data from the Meteorological Department to become open data, as well as designating the spokesperson of the Prime Minister's Office as the main person to make announcements during crises.
Tomorrow.io · Demand · Positive Thailand's Ministry of Digital Economy and Society is running a POC of Tomorrow.io's LEO-satellite/AI disaster-warning technology, a potential annual-fee service deal.
Insurance regulator says flood damage is lower than 2011, at 480 billion baht, as insurance stocks fall across the board
The Office of the Insurance Commission, or OIC, estimates that damage from the current flooding is not comparable to 2011, when insurers paid out more than 480 billion baht in claims. Most of the damage this time has hit individuals, unlike 2011, when it was concentrated in the industrial sector. Apakorn Panlert, Deputy Secretary-General for Insurance Business Supervision at the OIC, said insurance companies conduct stress testing of capital adequacy every quarter, and the latest results pass the criteria for handling the risks and claims that will arise. The claims ratio that allows companies to remain profitable stands at 60-65%, and there has been no immediate effect on insurance premium adjustments. Somporn Suebthawilkul, president of the Thai General Insurance Association, said the insurance sector has discussed with the OIC preparations to set up a special assistance center to care for affected members of the public. Meanwhile, a source from Viriyah Insurance Public Company Limited, which has the largest auto insurance portfolio in the business, said it has not yet assessed the value of the damage. Initially, 4,000 damage reports have come in, but no figures have been finalized because the situation is not over. The OIC has issued relief measures providing preliminary claim payments for microinsurance economy residential fire policies for retail customers at the full sum insured of 10,000 baht, for residential homes at the full sum insured of 20,000 baht, and if additional flood coverage was purchased, an extra preliminary payment of 10,000 baht. For shops holding fire policies or property risk insurance policies that purchased additional flood coverage, preliminary claim payments of 30,000 baht will be made.
The Viriyah Insurance Public Company Limited · Supply · Negative Viriyah, with the largest auto insurance portfolio, has received 4,000 flood damage reports and not yet assessed the value of the damage, implying claims costs from the flooding.
Intermap Signs Three-Year Flood Risk Subscription With Fairfax's Colonnade
Intermap Technologies announced a three-year subscription agreement with Colonnade Insurance S.A., a Luxembourg-based non-life insurer wholly owned by Fairfax Financial Holdings, for an integrated flood risk and property valuation solution. The subscription begins in the Czech Republic, with planned expansion into Slovakia and Hungary in 2027, and Intermap and Colonnade have set an objective of extending the offering more broadly across Colonnade's Central and Eastern Europe operations by 2028. The solution lets Colonnade assess flood exposure, market value and replacement value within a single operational workflow using detailed, current and traceable property information. Chairman and CEO Patrick A. Blott said insurance is a global growth market for Intermap and the agreement shows how the company's recurring subscription model scales, while Colonnade Insurance Czech Republic CEO Marián Bátovský said combining property valuation and flood exposure in one digital workflow supports more consistent underwriting. Intermap's 3D data foundation spans more than 300 million square kilometers across more than 150 countries, and the company cited Munich Re's NatCatSERVICE estimate that natural disasters caused approximately US$224 billion in global losses during 2025, of which insurers covered approximately US$108 billion.
Capgemini Study Finds 68% of Executives Prioritize Climate Adaptation as Net Zero Gaps Widen
A new Capgemini Research Institute report finds that 68% of executives now say their organization actively prioritizes climate adaptation, up from 56% in 2025, yet only 15% have fully quantified the financial impact of climate-related disruptions. The fifth edition of A World in Balance: The resilience reset, based on a survey of 2,100 executives at 701 organizations with more than $1 billion in annual revenue across 13 countries, also shows the share of organizations falling behind on net zero goals rising to 11% in 2026 from 1% in 2025, with 29% saying they have postponed their net zero objectives, compared with just 8% last year. Nearly nine in 10 organizations report climate-related supply-chain disruptions, and more than seven in 10 executives say securing access to critical resources such as energy, water and materials now influences sustainability decisions more than emissions-reduction targets. Sustainability spending reached 1.04% of revenue last year, above the 0.8% initially allocated, and 83% of organizations plan to increase climate adaptation spending over the next 12 to 18 months. Cyril Garcia, Global head of Sustainability services and Corporate Responsibility at Capgemini, said climate disruptions have become the new normal and that leaders can no longer defer climate action.
CAP.PA · · Neutral Capgemini's research institute published the survey; it is the report's author, not a company-specific financial or operational development.
Cabinet approves 15-billion-baht national disaster insurance scheme covering 30 million households
Today's cabinet meeting (Sept 15) was chaired by Deputy Prime Minister and Transport Minister Phiphat Ratchakitprakarn on behalf of Prime Minister and Interior Minister Anutin Charnvirakul, who is on a trip to the Socialist Republic of Vietnam. The Interior Ministry is seeking approval for a total budget framework of 15 billion baht to buy natural disaster insurance under the national disaster insurance programme, and is proposing three types of policy covering floods, windstorms and earthquakes, for 30 million households, with a one-year coverage period from 1 October 2026 to 1 October 2027, to ease the burden of risk on the state, which spends tens of billions of baht a year on relief for disaster victims. Meanwhile, the Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives is seeking approval for a project to improve the irrigation system in the lower Chao Phraya basin and the lower eastern side, with a budget of about 95 billion baht, using loans from the Asian Development Bank, or ADB, together with the national budget. The Transport Ministry, for its part, is proposing to cancel the item for construction of the ministry's new headquarters building, which was tied to the budgets for 2026 to 2028, effectively delaying the construction plan. Attention is also on proposals to appoint and transfer senior officials at several ministries to fill positions left vacant by retirements on 30 September this year.
Verisk Raises Global Insured Catastrophe Loss Estimate to $171 Billion
Verisk's catastrophe modeling unit has released its 2026 Global Modeled Catastrophe Losses Report, calculating that the insurance industry should prepare for $171 billion in average annual insured catastrophe losses, up $19 billion from a year ago and the highest estimate Verisk has reported to date. The benchmark rose even after a year with no U.S. hurricane landfalls for the first time in a decade, driven by exposure growth, rising reconstruction costs, and continued development in catastrophe-prone areas. Of the $171 billion global insured average annual loss, $117 billion, or 68 percent, is attributed to the United States, with severe thunderstorm accounting for 40 percent of modeled risk, ahead of tropical cyclone at 27 percent, earthquake at 10 percent, winter storm at 9 percent, flood at 7 percent, and wildfire at 6 percent. The report also notes that a severe catastrophe year could generate losses nearly three times higher than the global AAL, with modeled aggregate insured losses reaching $477 billion at the 100-year return period and $606 billion at the 250-year return period. Since Verisk first published this report in 2012, the estimated global insured AAL has nearly tripled, rising from $59 billion to $171 billion, reflecting expanded model coverage and growth in insured exposure.
Verisk Reports Record $171 Billion Global Insured Catastrophe Loss Benchmark
Verisk's catastrophe modelling unit has released its 2026 Global Modelled Catastrophe Losses Report, calculating that the insurance industry should be prepared to withstand $171 billion in insured catastrophe losses on average in a given year, up $19 billion from a year ago and the highest estimate Verisk has reported to date. The benchmark rose even after a year with no U.S. hurricane landfalls for the first time in a decade, reflecting continued growth in property values and insured values worldwide. Severe thunderstorm accounts for 40 percent of modelled insured catastrophe risk, more than any other peril, ahead of tropical cyclone at 27 percent, earthquake at 10 percent, winter storm at 9 percent, flood at 7 percent, and wildfire at 6 percent. At the 100-year return period, modelled aggregate insured losses reach $477 billion, and at the 250-year return period, they reach $606 billion. The report also highlights a persistent protection gap, noting that globally only about 38 percent of economic losses from natural catastrophes are insured, while in Europe, only about $24 billion of the region's $110 billion in expected annual economic catastrophe losses is insured, or 22 percent.
Climate Adaptation & Water › Property/Casualty & Reinsurance Underwriting ▼Pricing
VRSK · Demand · Positive Verisk's catastrophe modelling unit releases a record $171 billion insured loss benchmark, highlighting its key role and potential demand for its services.
FM acquires wildfire intelligence provider FortressFire
US commercial property insurer FM has acquired FortressFire, a wildfire intelligence company that uses machine learning and physics-based modelling. Financial terms were not disclosed. FortressFire will operate as an independent, wholly owned division of FM, continuing to serve insurers, reinsurers, brokers, real estate professionals, lenders, and property owners under its existing brand and leadership. FM chairman and CEO Malcolm Roberts said the deal reinforces the company's belief in data-driven, location-based risk mitigation, while FortressFire founder Michael Ashker called the acquisition a validation of its science-based approach to ignition prevention.
Climate exposure is increasingly altering the financial calculus of retail properties, moving beyond sustainability to become a core operating-cost and estate-planning issue. Insurance costs for U.S. commercial real estate surged 88% over five years, with MSCI data showing insurance reached 2.4% of income receivable in the 12 months to the third quarter of 2024, double the share five years earlier. However, the broader concern is that location-specific hazards like floods, wildfires, and severe convective storms—which Swiss Re Institute says accounted for 92% of global insured natural catastrophe losses in 2025—can disrupt trading, damage stock, and lengthen recovery times, making a store’s long-term economics depend on total risk rather than rent and footfall alone. Retailers are urged to assess risk store by store, invest in resilience where it matters most, and factor insurance, potential downtime, and adaptation costs into lease renewals and capital-allocation decisions.
OIC Launches CAT Scenarios Stress Test to Strengthen Thai Insurance Industry Against Future Catastrophes
The Office of Insurance Commission, or OIC, has launched the CAT Scenarios Stress Test project to assess the impact of natural disasters on the Thai insurance industry at a sector-wide level. Dr. Ayusri Khambanlue, Assistant Secretary-General for Regulatory Standard Development, chaired the opening meeting on July 6, 2026, joined by representatives from the Thai General Insurance Association, insurance companies, and project advisors including TIRD, Milliman, Moody’s, and PwC. The project will develop a stress testing framework using catastrophe scenarios tailored to Thailand’s risk context, covering three main scenarios: a severe 1-in-200-year flood event, a 1-in-200-year earthquake event, and a combined flood and earthquake occurring within the same year at a 1-in-100-year severity level. It will also assess impacts on financial positions, liquidity, and recovery paths over a three-year period. The project is divided into four phases and is expected to be completed by December 2026. The OIC expects the results to enhance risk management knowledge, strengthen the stability of the Thai insurance system, and support the development of proactive supervisory tools to cope with large-scale disasters in the future.
Thai Insurance Research and Development · Demand · Positive TIRD is named as a project advisor, which may lead to consulting revenue and industry recognition.
MCO · Demand · Positive Moody's is named as a project advisor, which may lead to consulting revenue.
Milliman · Demand · Positive Milliman is named as a project advisor, which may lead to consulting revenue.
PricewaterhouseCoopers · Demand · Positive PwC is named as a project advisor, which may lead to consulting revenue.
Allstate estimates June catastrophe losses at $1.72 billion
Allstate estimates its June catastrophe losses at $1.72 billion, or $1.36 billion after tax. Combined with estimated catastrophe losses for April and May, second-quarter catastrophe losses will total approximately $2.88 billion, or roughly $2.28 billion after tax. The June 2026 figure is significantly higher than the June 2025 estimate of $619 million, or $489 million after tax.
Florida man loses roof to Hurricane Milton two months after paying off home, had no insurance
A Florida man had his roof torn off by Hurricane Milton just two months after paying off his home, and he had no homeowner's insurance to cover the damage. Mike Parrot told WFLA News that he and his wife had paid off their Bradenton home about two months before the Category 5 storm hit in October 2024, ripping the roof off and leading to the house being condemned. The couple had to live in their backyard studio while repairs were made, a situation WFLA reporter Shannon Behnken said she often encounters as homeowners drop insurance after paying off mortgages to save money. Insurify data shows about one in five Florida homes are uninsured, and the state's average annual home insurance premium reached $8,292 in 2025, an 18% increase from the prior year. The report also noted that most standard policies do not cover flooding, and roughly 80% of Florida residential structures lack flood insurance.
Middle-Class Retirees Can Only Afford Redding in California
Middle-class retirees have only one realistic option in California: Redding, where the median home price is around $400,000, roughly half the statewide median of $775,000. A couple with average Social Security benefits of about $49,700 per year faces a total annual budget of roughly $73,000, including $5,500 for homeowners insurance that reflects surging wildfire premiums. The California FAIR Plan has seen written premiums rise 208% since September 2022, with an approved average rate increase of about 29% starting October 2026, adding $4,000 to $8,000 annually in high-risk areas. After Social Security, the remaining gap of about $23,300 requires a portfolio of roughly $585,000 at a 4% withdrawal rate or $665,000 at 3.5%, assuming a paid-off home. This budget works only in the far north, inland areas like Shasta County, where costs are lower but wildfire insurance remains a critical, often overlooked expense.
Thailand
