Dynasty Ceramic Public Company Limited

Natwarin Triphopsakul, Senior Director of the Equity Strategy Team at InnovestX Securities, or InnovestX, assesses that the Thai stock market will remain volatile in the short term due to a lack of new catalysts, amid an investment climate pressured by factors on all sides. These include the Fed's hawkish stance, which is keeping bond yields elevated at multi-year highs, causing fund flows to continue flowing out. This is compounded by energy prices that remain high due to prolonged geopolitical problems, and concerns over domestic flooding, which, although the impact on the economy is expected to be limited, remains an overhang factor creating negative sentiment toward the market. InnovestX therefore recommends a Selective Buy strategy, focusing on Buy on Dip through 3 trading themes with their own specific positive factors. These are: the Domestic Play theme, based on domestic consumption, comprising the commerce group CPALL, CPN, and CRC, the medical group BCH and PR9, and the communications group TRUE; the Flood Defensive & Recovery Plays theme, which benefits from stockpiling of essential goods during emergencies, comprising the commerce group CPALL, BJC, and CRC, extending to demand for home repairs after the waters recede, namely HMPRO and GLOBAL, and the construction materials group DCC; and the Tourism & Mega-Event Play theme, which is expected to benefit from the high season for tourism in the fourth quarter of 2026, supported by factors ranging from China's Golden Week from October 1 to 7 and world-class events such as the World Bank-IMF meetings from October 12 to 18, comprising the tourism group ERW, CENTEL, and AOT, and the retail group CPALL, CPN, and CRC. On external factors, the United States reported August PCE and Core PCE at 3.4% and 3.0% year on year, respectively, unchanged from the previous month and below market expectations, while real consumption expanded 0.6% from the previous month and ADP employment for September rose by 90,000 positions from 36,000 positions, reflecting that the economy remains strong but price pressures have not yet broadened, opening the door for the Fed to wait and assess more data. The market has reduced the odds of an October rate hike to about 35% from 70% last Monday. InnovestX still expects the Fed to raise rates in December and once more in early next year, but September NFP, CPI, and PPI must be monitored to assess the risk that the Fed may accelerate the pace of rate hikes. In China, the PBOC cut the PSL rate used to lend to state policy banks by 25 basis points to 1.50%, while increasing funding support for targeted economic sectors, and the government is subsidizing interest on first-home loans by 1% per year for no more than 5 years. However, the measures still focus on supporting the economy, while falling home prices continue to pressure purchasing power. InnovestX therefore maintains its forecast for China's 2026 GDP at 4.6% and views that the property sector may take at least another year to reach its bottom. Next week, attention will be on Thailand's September inflation, which InnovestX expects to accelerate from 2.53% year on year in the previous month, tracking higher oil and fresh food prices, as well as the final September services PMI for the United States, the eurozone, and Japan. Preliminary PMI readings reflect that the United States and the eurozone are accelerating, while Japan is slowing but still expanding. Also awaited is the report of the September FOMC meeting after the Fed raised rates by 25 basis points to 3.75–4.00%, with a focus on details of discussions about inflation risks, the strength of the economy, and the conditions that would lead to the next rate hike.

Four brokerages assess that the flood situation in Bangkok and its vicinity in 2026 will cause limited economic damage, as the waters have not yet spread into industrial estates or key production bases, unlike the great flood of 2011 that disrupted production chains on a wide scale. Finansia Syrus Securities estimates preliminary damage at around 20–40 billion baht, or roughly 0.1–0.2% of GDP, and views pressure on the stock market as reflecting short-term concerns rather than affecting earnings. Kasikorn Securities estimates damage at about 3,000–4,000 million baht per day, or roughly 20–30 billion baht per week; if severe conditions persist for one week, it could drag on GDP by about 0.1%. As of 27 September 2026, 25 provinces and 128 districts have been affected, with about 545,000 people impacted, compared with 2011 when floods hit 66 provinces, affected about 13.6 million people and caused damage of approximately 1.4 trillion baht. CGS International notes that Bangkok and its vicinity account for about 47.3% of the country's economy, and divides the situation into two scenarios: if water can be drained within 4–5 days, the impact will be limited, but if it drags on beyond 5 days, it could weigh more on purchasing power and consumption. For stocks that benefit after the waters recede, Finansia Syrus favours HMPRO, GLOBAL, DOHOME, TOA, SCGD, DCC and DRT, while Kasikorn favours retail and food groups as well as the ICT group. Pi Securities estimates a SET range of 1,590–1,620 points and picks BDMS, BCH, CPALL, PTT, PTTEP, PTTGC, TOP, ITC and TU, while CGS International says to watch DELTA, HANA and KCE if the SET falls below 1,600 points, on the theme of investment in artificial intelligence and digital infrastructure.

Equity and derivatives market strategists in the research department of InnovestX Securities Company Limited, or InnovestX, assess that the current flooding will have a limited impact on the economy and the SET, because it is merely water waiting to drain from heavy rainfall, unlike the 2011 crisis. In addition, water levels in the main dams remain lower than in 2011 and 2025. If the water recedes within one to two weeks, the impact on 2026 GDP is expected to be around 21 billion baht, or -0.11%, and the firm still expects Thai GDP to grow in line with its 2.0% target in 2026-2027. Historical data shows that in cases of short-term flooding lasting no more than seven days, the SET may dip an average of 0.6% initially before recovering into positive territory within one week. In cases of major flooding lasting more than seven days, the SET typically corrects an average of 3.8% in the first month and begins to recover from the second month onward, with Domestic Play stocks leading the market's recovery. InnovestX therefore recommends a Buy on Dip strategy to gradually accumulate Domestic Play stocks across three main themes. The first is Fast Recovery Plays, namely tourism names such as CENTEL and ERW and healthcare names such as BDMS and BCH. The second is Recovery & Repair Plays, namely commerce names such as HMPRO and GLOBAL and construction materials names such as DCC. The third is Consumer Staples & Stockpiling Plays, namely commerce names such as CPALL, BJC and CRC. At the same time, the firm advises caution on the insurance sector, which may come under pressure from a higher loss ratio.

Wilasinee Boonmasungsong, Assistant Managing Director of Globlex Securities, or GBS, disclosed that the Thai stock market index this week is likely to fluctuate within a range of 1,600–1,630 points amid tensions in the Middle East and US government bond yields holding at high levels. She recommended a strategy focused on speculation in groups benefiting from home repairs after the floods, comprising six stocks: GLOBAL, DOHOME, HMPRO, TASCO, DCC, and DRT. The main negative factor comes from the Houthi group, which has been emboldened after Iran fired missiles at Saudi Arabia, causing the WTI crude oil contract to rise by 2.45 US dollars, or 2.7%, to close at 94.61 US dollars per barrel. Meanwhile, data from the CME Group's FedWatch Tool indicates that investors assign a 69% probability that the US Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by 0.25% to a range of 4.00–4.25% at its October meeting. Domestic negative factors stem from the flood situation in Bangkok and its vicinity, where most residents were unable to prepare in time, causing damage across supply chains in both the manufacturing and transportation sectors. However, there are still positive factors supporting the market, including the US Senate's vote against a motion to withdraw troops from the conflict with Iran, as well as an agreement between the US and China to extend their trade truce until January 10, 2570. On the domestic front, the Securities and Exchange Commission welcomed the parliament's acceptance in principle of four capital market bills, and the semiconductor board approved the first strategy for the chip and advanced electronics industry, aiming to attract more than 500 billion baht in investment over five years, while preparing to consider a project to install rooftop solar panels for 1–1.5 million households to address the energy crisis.