TOA Paint (Thailand) Public Company Limited

Four brokerages assess that the flood situation in Bangkok and its vicinity in 2026 will cause limited economic damage, as the waters have not yet spread into industrial estates or key production bases, unlike the great flood of 2011 that disrupted production chains on a wide scale. Finansia Syrus Securities estimates preliminary damage at around 20–40 billion baht, or roughly 0.1–0.2% of GDP, and views pressure on the stock market as reflecting short-term concerns rather than affecting earnings. Kasikorn Securities estimates damage at about 3,000–4,000 million baht per day, or roughly 20–30 billion baht per week; if severe conditions persist for one week, it could drag on GDP by about 0.1%. As of 27 September 2026, 25 provinces and 128 districts have been affected, with about 545,000 people impacted, compared with 2011 when floods hit 66 provinces, affected about 13.6 million people and caused damage of approximately 1.4 trillion baht. CGS International notes that Bangkok and its vicinity account for about 47.3% of the country's economy, and divides the situation into two scenarios: if water can be drained within 4–5 days, the impact will be limited, but if it drags on beyond 5 days, it could weigh more on purchasing power and consumption. For stocks that benefit after the waters recede, Finansia Syrus favours HMPRO, GLOBAL, DOHOME, TOA, SCGD, DCC and DRT, while Kasikorn favours retail and food groups as well as the ICT group. Pi Securities estimates a SET range of 1,590–1,620 points and picks BDMS, BCH, CPALL, PTT, PTTEP, PTTGC, TOP, ITC and TU, while CGS International says to watch DELTA, HANA and KCE if the SET falls below 1,600 points, on the theme of investment in artificial intelligence and digital infrastructure.

TTBWEALTH Public Company Limited, or TTBWEALTH, assesses that this round of flooding will have a limited impact on the economy, as it is short-term and severe only in certain areas, unlike the 2011 event that flooded many areas and lasted several weeks to several months. In the short term, some stocks have gained both positive and negative sentiment. The groups benefiting positively include consumer goods retail, led by CPALL, CPAXT and CRC, as well as the home improvement and construction materials group, which is expected to benefit from demand for home repairs after the water recedes, namely HMPRO, GLOBAL, DOHOME, TOA and TASCO. Meanwhile, the groups affected negatively include insurance, such as TIPH, and tourism, namely AOT, ERW and CENTEL. In addition, several listed companies have updated the situation. DELTA reported that some areas were flooded but machinery and factories were not damaged, and operations returned to normal today after production lines were halted last Sunday. CENTEL had only some hotels affected, such as the Lat Phrao area where water entered the lobby, and the Pattaya zone, with a small number of customer cancellations. Its food business saw some sales decline from temporary store closures, but overall the impact is considered limited. MINT stated that most of its hotels are not in flood zones, its properties were not damaged, and it continues to operate normally. CPN confirmed that no shopping centers were closed, though it may be affected by a decline in customer traffic during the floods, and it expects no rental discounts to be offered.

Jatuphat Tangkaravakoon, Chief Executive Officer of TOA Paint (Thailand) Public Company Limited, or TOA, told Than Hoon that flooding in many areas has increased demand for renovating and repairing homes and buildings, or the repair and renovation market. However, demand for paint products and construction materials will not rise immediately after the waters recede and will serve as a long-term supporting factor, since an effective repainting process requires a detailed assessment of damage beforehand. Recovery is also constrained by a shortage of skilled painters who cannot serve everyone at once. The company therefore plans to expand its market in both construction chemicals and repair chemicals, focusing on providing knowledge and principles for home maintenance rather than pushing hard-sell tactics, and will consider adding sales promotion activities or campaigns to stimulate sales at an appropriate time later. The company's main warehouse, located on Bangna-Trad Road at Kilometer 23 in Samut Prakan Province, was not affected by the flooding, as most of the flooded areas are in Bang Bo District and nearby areas, which did not directly affect the main warehouse. Warehouse management, transportation, and the distribution of goods in and out continue to operate normally and smoothly. As for the outlook for the fourth quarter of 2026, the paint market remains stable, as the overall economy and market are not growing strongly, and the flooding, which has spread to provincial areas, has temporarily slowed purchasing power and repair and renovation activity in the regions. The company expects to keep its performance in the final quarter at a stable to slightly growing level in order to achieve its full-year 2026 revenue target of growth of close to 5%, and to prepare for continued growth opportunities through 2027.

Asia Plus Securities said the flooding in Bangkok and its surrounding provinces between 25 and 27 September, caused by continuous heavy rain, led to widespread inundation, with damage concentrated mainly in residential and shophouse segments, which are likely to need repairs once the water recedes. Infrastructure and large construction projects, meanwhile, saw only limited impact. The research team views the most direct beneficiaries as the construction materials group for home repair and decoration, particularly floor and wall tiles such as DCC and SCGD, synthetic wood such as DRT, and house paint such as TOA. The cement group SCC, SCCC and TPIPL is unlikely to gain significantly, while TASCO still lacks a clear catalyst. For contractors, the impact on CK and STECON is limited in both positive and negative terms, with the key issue to watch being clarity on water management plans and government investment in flood protection infrastructure. The research team favours investment in the home repair and renovation group, with a positive view on DCC at a consensus fair value of 1.51 baht, SCGD at a consensus fair value of 6.61 baht, and DRT and TOA at a consensus fair value of 18.03 baht, on the back of post-flood restoration demand, while the upside for CK and STECON still depends on clarity over future government water management investment plans.

Yuanta Securities (Thailand) assessed the impact of the flood situation on listed companies, seeing this round's effects as varying by industry rather than a negative factor for all stocks. The group with the clearest potential benefit after the waters recede is businesses tied to home repair and renovation products, namely HMPRO, GLOBAL, DOHOME, TOA and PIMO. Among these, HMPRO stands to gain the most from products related to electrical systems and home solutions. Meanwhile, consumer goods retailers such as CPALL, BJC and CPAXT are supported by demand for drinking water, dry food and everyday items. The communications group is buoyed by increased internet and data usage, with ADVANC chosen as the sector's top pick. By contrast, the insurance group is hit more directly than many industries, as floods may lead to claims for damage to homes and vehicles, driving up policy benefit expenses, with the impact on earnings likely to become clearer in the fourth quarter of 2026 through the first quarter of 2027. For the remaining industries, the overall picture is seen as not significantly affected, or affected only in the short term. However, the bigger issue to watch is foreign investor confidence should the flood situation drag on, since industrial estate businesses depend heavily on a customer base of foreign direct investment.

Analysts at Trinity Securities assess that the flash flooding in Bangkok over the past weekend could create sentiment pressure on insurance stocks, especially companies with auto and property insurance portfolios that may face rising claim costs and loss reserves, such as TIPH and THRE. In addition, groups tied to people's mobility, including shopping malls and restaurants such as CRC and CPN, as well as mass transit operators like BEM and BTS, may be affected by a short-term drop in traffic. Conversely, Trinity sees a chance of positive sentiment for consumer staples retail stocks, such as convenience store operator CPALL and hypermarkets BJC and CPAXT, which may see short-term demand for stockpiling goods, as well as the home improvement and construction materials sector, which may benefit from post-flood purchasing demand, such as HMPRO and TOA.

TOA reported its 2Q26 results with a net profit of 718 million baht, down 24.7% from the previous quarter but up 10.1% year-on-year. Sales slowed seasonally, but were supported by sales in April-May as customers rushed to complete projects. Meanwhile, the first-half GPM stood at 40.2% after price adjustments. However, management expects that the margin in 3Q26 may be 1-1.5 percentage points lower than the first-half level, due to the weakening baht and rising costs of some raw materials. The company targets 5% sales growth in 2026, driven mainly by Construction Chemicals and the Vietnamese market. It has also revised its CAPEX plan down to approximately 600 million baht. The recommendation is "Buy," with support at 15.00-14.80 and resistance at 15.70-15.80.

TOA is adjusting its strategy to push into the economy paint segment, focusing on rental property customers while expanding in construction and repair chemicals, with a target of 5% sales growth in 2026. Chief Executive Officer Jatuphat Tangkaravakoon said the company is now placing more weight on affordable products after focusing on the premium segment since 2000. The economy segment has faster turnover and more frequent repeat usage, with main customers being rental units and public housing projects. The company has a 2026 investment budget of about 600 million baht, of which 197 million baht was spent in the first half, and expects heavy disbursement from late third quarter to early fourth quarter. The spending breaks down into 33.6% for new production capacity, 23.6% for safety and sustainability, 19.5% for machinery replacement, 9.3% for automation, and 14.1% for others. Third quarter gross margin may decline by 1.0 to 1.5 percentage points from 40.2% in the first half due to the weaker baht, while raw material costs are beginning to stabilize. Titanium dioxide prices are trending down, while resin and monomer prices may rise slightly because of Middle East tensions. In overseas markets, Vietnam is expected to keep growing at a double digit pace, Laos growth is limited by its small population, and Cambodia and Myanmar face short term pressure from economic and political conditions but have high long term potential.

Kasikorn Securities said the construction materials group reported combined normalised profit of 2.2 billion baht in the second quarter of 2026, up 11 percent from a year earlier, supported by a higher gross margin despite weak sales. Profit fell 11 percent from the previous quarter due to seasonal demand and more holidays. Combined normalised profit for the first half of 2026 was 4.8 billion baht, up 28 percent from a year earlier, representing 61 percent of the full-year estimate of 7.9 billion baht. Combined revenue in the second quarter of 2026 was 24 billion baht, up 6 percent from a year earlier and 1 percent from the previous quarter. Gross profit margin rose to 28.2 percent, up 0.7 percentage point from a year earlier and 0.3 percentage point from the previous quarter, as higher selling prices fully offset higher oil-linked raw material costs. Such raw materials account for 35 to 45 percent of cost of sales. The selling, general and administrative expense to revenue ratio rose to 17.9 percent, up 0.2 percentage point from a year earlier and 1.8 percentage points from the previous quarter, due to higher logistics costs. As a result, the normalised profit margin rose 0.4 percentage point from a year earlier to 9.4 percent, but fell 1.3 percentage points from the previous quarter. Ceramic tile sales at Dynasty Ceramic and SCG Decor fell 6 percent and 7 percent from a year earlier respectively, because they have a high proportion of revenue from the private sector where demand is weak, while normalised profit fell 4 percent and 5 percent respectively. Tipco Asphalt revenue rose 20 percent from a year earlier on higher asphalt prices following the war between the United States and Iran, lifting normalised profit by 22 percent. TOA Paint sales rose 4 percent on higher market share and inventory stocking, but normalised profit rose only 3 percent because of higher selling, general and administrative expenses and Myanmar-related costs. Eastern Polymer Group delivered the strongest performance, with sales up 9 percent and normalised profit up as much as 43 percent on demand for insulation products in the United States. Kasikorn Securities maintained a neutral view on the sector, focusing on stock selection. It picked Eastern Polymer Group as a top pick with a buy rating and a target price of 6.70 baht, and TOA Paint with a buy rating and a target price of 19.0 baht, because they have stronger demand than other companies. Eastern Polymer Group benefits from strong demand for insulation products in the United States, while TOA Paint's market leadership supports stable paint demand.

TOA Paint Thailand Public Company Limited, or TOA, announced results for the first six months of 2026 with net profit of 1.671 billion baht, up 21 percent from the same period last year, and total revenue of 11.325 billion baht, up 4 percent. In the second half, the company plans to push into the paint market for rental residential properties to expand its customer base and increase usage frequency, while controlling costs and helping customers manage paint inventory. The company declared an interim dividend of 0.38 baht per share, with the stock trading ex-dividend on 27 August 2026 and payment on 11 September 2026. Analysts at Tisco Securities recommend buying with a target price of 19.00 baht.

TOA announced an interim cash dividend of 0.38 baht per share. The board approved the dividend on 13 August 2026, with the record date for shareholders entitled to receive the dividend set for 28 August 2026 and the XD date on 27 August 2026. The dividend is paid from operating results for the period 1 January 2026 to 30 June 2026 and will be paid to ordinary shareholders on 11 September 2026.

Analysts have upgraded their recommendation on TOA from hold to buy, raising the fair value to 17.50 baht from 14.50 baht, after lifting profit forecasts for 2026 to 2028 by 21 percent, 15 percent, and 13 percent respectively, reflecting stronger-than-expected profitability. Net profit for 2026 is projected at 3.227 billion baht, with gross margin holding high at around 39 percent despite rising raw material costs. The full-year dividend is expected to yield about 5 percent. Meanwhile, two other brokers have set targets of 19 baht and 16.10 baht respectively.

Krungsri Securities assesses that TOA Paint Thailand, or TOA, will continue to deliver solid results in the second quarter of 2026. Core profit is expected at 822 million baht, up 6 percent year on year but down 10 percent from the first quarter. Revenue is forecast at 5.6 billion baht, up 5 percent year on year and flat quarter on quarter, helped by an average 4 percent selling price increase and higher sales volumes as trade partners built inventory. Gross margin is projected at 39.0 percent, up from 38.0 percent a year earlier but down from 40.4 percent in the first quarter, with the price hike and volume growth offsetting higher raw material costs, including oil prices, titanium dioxide, and a weaker baht. Krungsri Securities has raised its 2026 and 2027 core profit estimates by an average of 10 percent, forecasting 2026 profit at 2.97 billion baht, down 8 percent year on year, and 2027 profit at 2.96 billion baht, broadly flat. However, cost pressures will become more evident in the second half of 2026, especially in the third quarter, which is the low season, with sales likely to slow. Titanium dioxide prices in the second quarter of 2026 stood at around 2,400 US dollars per tonne, up 20 percent year on year and 21 percent quarter on quarter, as excess supply conditions eased. The broker maintains a Neutral rating and lifts its 2026 target price to 16.10 baht from 14.50 baht.