Assicurazioni Generali S.p.A.

Jefferies downgraded Italian insurer Generali to "hold" from "buy" on Wednesday, saying its new €38 price target no longer offered sufficient total shareholder return to justify a buy rating after a sharp rise in the shares. Generali closed at €43.07 on Tuesday, putting the new target 12% below the latest closing price; the broker raised its target from €28.50 after rolling its valuation forward to 2027 normalised earnings from 2025. Jefferies said Generali shares had risen 123% since Giulio Terzariol joined the group in January 2024, compared with a 52% gain for the SXIP insurance index, and that the one-year forward price-to-earnings multiple had expanded to more than 12 times from less than eight times over the same period. The analysts retained a constructive view of Generali's strategy but said the stock now reflected much of the improvement, and they raised their 2026 earnings-per-share estimate by 7% to €3.30 and their 2027 estimate by 5%, with the 2026 forecast 2% above consensus according to Visible Alpha. Ahead of Generali's nine-month results due on Nov. 13, Jefferies flagged potential constraints on further earnings upgrades, including deteriorating retail pricing trends in non-life insurance and concerns over lapse rates and new-business margins in life insurance, and it set out a €38 base-case valuation assuming recurring annual share buybacks of €500 million and a non-life combined ratio of 92.4%, alongside a €50 upside case and a €30 downside case. Generali has a market capitalisation of about €66.1 billion and is due to hold its 2026 Investor Day on Nov. 18.