Hua Seng Heng said global financial markets are watching the summit between President Donald Trump and President Xi Jinping on September 24, which will set the direction for gold prices, bond yields and the foreign exchange market. The market does not expect the meeting to produce a grand deal that immediately ends the conflict between the two countries, but is instead weighing the ability of both sides to keep the relationship stable and reduce the risk of escalation. There are four key issues on the negotiating table: trade and tariffs, technology and AI, Iran and the Middle East situation, and Taiwan, which is the most fragile issue in US-China relations. Hua Seng Heng assessed that if the outcome is positive, some capital could flow back into equities and risk assets, while demand for holding gold as a hedge could decline, leaving gold prices exposed to profit-taking or a short-term consolidation. But if the talks stall or there are signs of a return to additional pressure measures, investors could cut holdings of risk assets and raise their weighting in safe-haven assets, which could support gold prices. However, Hua Seng Heng views the US-China rivalry as structural in nature, making it difficult for a single meeting to resolve all the conflict. The key issue after the meeting is therefore not only what agreements were reached, but how much the talks reduce or increase the level of uncertainty in global markets. Investors should also track US Treasury yields and the dollar in tandem.
US-China summit outcome could either reduce safe-haven gold demand (positive outcome) or support gold if talks stall, so direction is unclear.
Hua Seng Heng is the analyst issuing the gold outlook; the article reports its assessment, not a company-specific development.
