Freeport-McMoran Copper & Gold Inc

Goldman Sachs reiterated its Buy rating on Freeport-McMoRan on September 10, calling the copper miner's recent selloff overdone after Reuters indicated the White House had yet to decide whether to impose refined copper tariffs. Copper reached $14,745 per ton on September 22 as Shanghai inventories fell to 43,900 tons, their lowest level since 2023, and management estimates every $0.10 per pound change in copper prices could affect annual EBITDA by roughly $390 million in 2027 and 2028. Freeport expects second-half 2026 copper sales to exceed the first half by more than 20%, followed by another increase of more than 20% in 2027, while targeting 300 million pounds of annualized copper production from its leach initiative by year-end. On the cost side, the company's $2.50-per-pound U.S. cost target for 2027 is currently unattainable with U.S. costs closer to $3.00, and the preliminary cost of the Bagdad expansion has risen to about $4.5 billion, roughly 30% above its 2023 estimate, with 2027 capital spending expected at about $4.8 billion. Hedge fund ownership rose from 82 to 92 holders in the second quarter, and short interest climbed to 30.69 million shares as of August 31 from 27.79 million a month earlier, representing 2.15% of the float.

Freeport-McMoRan has landed on Zacks.com's list of the most searched stocks, with analysts raising their earnings estimates for the copper miner. The company is expected to post earnings of $0.73 per share for the current quarter, a year-over-year change of +46%, and over the last 30 days the Zacks Consensus Estimate has moved +0.8%. For the current fiscal year, the consensus earnings estimate of $2.82 points to a change of +59.3% from the prior year, while the next fiscal year's estimate of $3.76 indicates a change of +33.2%. On the revenue side, the consensus sales estimate of $7.07 billion for the current quarter points to a year-over-year change of +1.4%, with the $28.64 billion and $33.26 billion estimates for the current and next fiscal years indicating changes of +10.5% and +16.1%, respectively. The estimate revisions and other factors have produced a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) for Freeport-McMoRan, and the stock is graded C on the Zacks Value Style Score, indicating it is trading at par with its peers.

Freeport-McMoRan's modeled fair value has edged up from US$70.68 to US$72.59 as analysts refreshed their models on the copper miner. Barclays, BofA, UBS, Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo and RBC all set price targets in the US$70 to US$82 range, citing copper leverage and Grasberg execution, with RBC pointing to stronger than expected Q2 performance and a Grasberg mining rate tracking toward a planned full recovery. Goldman Sachs and Barclays called pullbacks in copper-exposed stocks an entry opportunity, and Goldman argued the recent tariff-headline selloff looks overdone given the lack of concrete policy detail. On the bearish side, Freedom Broker cut Freeport-McMoRan to Hold and Bernstein kept a Market Perform rating, with Bernstein flagging complexity and possible surplus in the nickel market. The updated model also lifted modeled revenue growth from 12.25% to 14.65%, cut the net profit margin assumption from 17.17% to 13.40%, raised the future P/E multiple from 20.50x to 25.89x, and revised the discount rate from 8.88% to 9.06%.

Goldman Sachs analyst Nick Cash reiterated his Buy rating on Freeport-McMoRan, calling the market's reaction an overreaction after a Reuters report said the Trump administration has not yet decided on refined copper tariffs. Freeport-McMoRan shares fell 7% in Thursday's trading, and copper futures traded 3% to 5% lower, as markets unwound some pricing of potential tariffs. An announcement has been expected on whether the U.S. would impose a 15% tariff on copper cathode, potentially starting in January 2027 and then rising to 30% in 2028. Cash said the publication provided no new information on whether policymakers will implement tariffs or continue to delay commentary on them, and that the stock's sudden drop has given investors an attractive entry point.

Canada's C$27.6 billion retaliation against U.S. imports took effect on Tuesday, putting the Canadian dollar and North American supply chains under fresh pressure as investors assessed the risk of a widening trade war. The tariffs, covering more than 700 U.S. products, add uncertainty for manufacturers and consumers while keeping the loonie vulnerable. USD/CAD jumped 0.27% to 1.3876, the loonie's weakest since August 19, and futures traders priced in higher odds of a Fed rate hike. Copper prices hit an all-time high, with LME copper futures at $14,694 per ton, and Freeport-McMoRan stock rose 7.4%. Canada's Ivey PMI jumped to 64.3, but employment fell by 41.7K jobs and unemployment stayed at 6.4%, while U.S. core PCE inflation remains sticky at 3.3%.

Finlay Minerals Ltd. has expanded its 2026 drill program at the PIL Property by 1,600 meters, bringing the total planned program to 4,400 meters, with the additional drilling funded by Freeport-McMoRan Mineral Properties Canada Inc. under the PIL Earn-In Agreement. The program is progressing rapidly, with over 2,700 meters already drilled at the Gold and Reef targets, and three holes completed totaling 2,300 meters, with a fourth hole nearing completion at Reef. The expansion follows the completion of 7.9 line-kilometers of induced polarization surveys at the Gold target and the collection of 505 soil samples, 204 rock samples, and 96 talus fine samples. At the ATTY Property, the 2026 work program is nearing completion, with IP surveys scheduled to finish by the end of August. Both PIL and ATTY are under six-year earn-in agreements with Freeport, which may earn an 80% interest by paying $4.1 million cash and funding $35 million of exploration work.

Moderna delivered one of the largest single-session moves for an S&P 500 company, closing 177% higher at $174.38 on Wednesday after reporting positive late-stage data for its personalized cancer vaccine. The stock pulled back over 23% on Thursday before adding more than 10% so far on Friday, leaving it on course for a gain of around 135% over the week. The Phase 3 trial evaluated Moderna's intismeran alongside Merck's Keytruda in advanced skin cancer, and met its primary goal of recurrence-free survival, with a key secondary endpoint on distant metastasis-free survival also met and no new safety signal reported. Crypto-exposed equities rallied hard this week after bitcoin surged on the U.S. Treasury's decision to at least double the size of its long-dated bond buyback operations, alongside supportive comments on the sector from President Donald Trump. The Treasury raised the maximum per-operation size from $2 billion to at least $4 billion for the 10-to-20-year and 20-to-30-year sectors, effective Sept. 9 through Nov. 4. Bitcoin is currently above $77,000, having hit a high of $79,461 earlier in Friday's session. As a result, Strategy has risen 25.9% over the week, with Marathon Digital up 22.5%, Coinbase 23.1% higher, Circle up 16.3%, Galaxy Digital 12.3% higher and Robinhood up 9.7%. The same Treasury announcement also lifted metals producers, with the dollar weakening and precious metal prices moving higher. Agnico Eagle leads the group so far on Friday with an 18.4% gain over the week, followed by Barrick at 15%, Freeport-McMoRan up 14% and Newmont 13.3% higher. The dollar has declined, with spot gold gaining more than 2% on Friday and over 6% in the past week. Estée Lauder jumped more than 16% on Wednesday and is set to finish the week up around 15.9% after fourth-quarter results came in ahead of expectations. Sales rose 6%, beating consensus of 4%, while adjusted earnings of $0.39 per share topped the $0.32 expected. Management pointed to share gains in mainland China and growth across all product categories except hair care, alongside continued progress on cost-cutting through its One ELC initiative and Profit Recovery and Growth Plan. Canaccord analyst Susan Anderson raised her price target for the stock to $90 from $85, maintaining a Hold rating following the release. Walmart is the week's notable loser, sinking 9.2% on Thursday and down a further 0.9% so far on Friday after second-quarter results that beat on the headline numbers but disappointed on the metric that mattered most. Comparable sales at Walmart-only U.S. stores excluding gas grew 2.6%, well short of the 3.67% consensus and the slowest U.S. sales growth in six years. Mizuho analyst David Bellinger described the outcome as a worst-case scenario, calling it a very messy print and one of the biggest misses in years from the retailer.

Freeport-McMoRan is emerging as the standout among copper stocks as an AI-fueled supply squeeze grips the copper market. The largest US copper miner trades near $66.50 after a sharp year-to-date run, with a bullish continuation pattern pointing toward $87 and a Strong Buy consensus from Wall Street. Copper hit an all-time high on COMEX on August 12, while the London Metal Exchange front-month spread blew out to a $370-a-ton premium, the widest since 2021, with inventories down for 42 straight days. A single one-gigawatt AI data center needs roughly 50,000 tonnes of copper, and data centers alone are projected to add hundreds of thousands of tonnes of fresh demand a year. Freeport's first-half net income rose 65% year over year, and analysts including Barclays and Stifel have lifted price targets, with an average 12-month target of $75.33.

Southern Copper Corporation reported second-quarter earnings per share of $2.01, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.97 and rising 71.8% from the prior-year quarter. Revenues surged 40.6% year over year to a quarterly record of $4.29 billion, though they missed the consensus estimate of $4.37 billion, as higher prices for copper, molybdenum, zinc and silver were partly offset by lower sales volumes. Operating income jumped 65.3% to $2.62 billion, and adjusted EBITDA reached a record $2.86 billion with a margin of 66.6%. Net income attributable to SCCO also hit a record $1.67 billion, up 71.6% year over year. Copper production declined 3.6% to 232,521 tons, including third-party concentrate, as a 12% drop in Peruvian output outweighed a 3.2% increase in Mexico.

Freeport-McMoRan and Digital Realty Trust reported quarterly results that highlight how AI infrastructure spending is benefiting companies beyond chipmakers. Freeport-McMoRan earned 74 cents a share excluding one-time costs, beating the 59-cent estimate, with net income of $984 million, or 68 cents a share, up from 53 cents a year ago, even though copper production fell 18.2% due to recovery from a deadly mud flow at its Grasberg mine in Indonesia. The beat was driven by a 41.5% rise in average copper prices, and CEO Kathleen Quirk said the mine's recovery is on track for full reopening by year-end. Digital Realty Trust's revenue jumped 29% to $1.92 billion, exceeding the $1.66 billion forecast, and Core FFO reached $2.65 a share versus the $1.86 expected, though that included $188 million in one-time income, with a comparable figure of $2.13 a share, up from $1.87 a year ago. The company raised full-year Core FFO guidance to $8.15 to $8.20 a share and noted new July leases worth $410 million in annual rent at full value, with its own share at $205 million, while also closing a $3.5 billion deal to increase its stake in three Northern Virginia data centers from Blackstone.

Freeport-McMoRan's discounted cash flow model indicates an intrinsic value of about $96.75 per share, roughly 35.3% above its recent price of $62.60, even after the company lowered its near-term copper sales guidance. The stock trades at about 30.6 times earnings, slightly above a tailored fair multiple of 28.4 times that accounts for its size, margins, and risk profile, suggesting it is not obviously cheap on earnings alone. Broader valuation checks show the company passes only two of six metrics, tempering the DCF signal. The market remains cautious following the reduced copper sales outlook, while a new Indonesian smelter expected to reach full capacity by year-end could support future margins and cash flows.

Freeport-McMoRan Inc. reported a second-quarter profit of $984 million, or $0.68 per share, up from $772 million, or $0.53 per share, in the same period last year. Excluding items, adjusted earnings were $1.080 billion, or $0.74 per share. Revenue fell 7.3% to $7.029 billion from $7.582 billion a year earlier.

Zacks Investment Research has identified Freeport-McMoRan, Southern Copper, and BHP Group as copper producers poised to benefit from the massive growth in AI-powered data centers. The four major hyperscalers have raised their AI capital expenditure budget to $750 billion for 2026, a figure expected to surpass $1 trillion next year, with Moody's estimating more than $3 trillion in total investment over the next five years. An AI-led data center consumes ten times more copper than a conventional one, and while data centers currently account for just 1% of global copper demand, the AI boom could dramatically reshape the landscape. Freeport-McMoRan is expanding reserves and executing smelter projects in Indonesia, Southern Copper is advancing over $20.5 billion in investments across Peru and Mexico, and BHP Group is leveraging strong execution at Escondida and Copper South Australia while shifting toward future-facing commodities. All three stocks carry a Zacks Rank of 3, or Hold.

Analysts have raised their consensus earnings forecast for Freeport-McMoRan's upcoming quarter to $0.60 per share, an 11.1% increase from a year earlier, even as revenue is projected to decline 14.6% year-on-year to $6.47 billion. The upgrade reflects expectations of tighter cost control and operational efficiency, though it does not materially alter the key risk around long-term operating certainty at the Grasberg mine in Indonesia. A February 2026 memorandum of understanding with the Indonesian government on extending PT Freeport Indonesia's operating rights provides some clarity on future mining terms, which analysts see as supportive of sustainable margins. Longer-term, the company's narrative projects $37.4 billion in revenue and $6.4 billion in earnings by 2029, implying 12.3% annual revenue growth and a $3.7 billion earnings increase from the current $2.7 billion.

Bank of America has cut 32 price objectives across its commodities coverage and lowered 2026 estimates for 31 of the 33 companies it tracks, yet uranium stands out as its top conviction call with 23% upside versus spot. The firm sees Cameco as its top uranium pick, citing leverage to higher realized prices, a solid balance sheet, and roughly 48% upside to its price target, while also flagging the benefit of Cameco's 49% stake in Westinghouse Electric Company amid the U.S. nuclear buildout. In precious metals, BofA trimmed its 2026 gold forecast by 14% to $4,360 an ounce and added Pan American Silver as a new top pick, pointing to 56% potential upside. Freeport-McMoRan remains the top base metals pick with about 35% upside, while aluminum forecasts were cut materially, leaving little room for gains.

Freeport-McMoRan declared a cash dividend of $0.15 per share, payable on August 3 to shareholders of record as of July 15. The announcement follows solid first-quarter 2026 results, with revenue rising to $6.23 billion from $5.73 billion a year earlier and earnings per share jumping to $0.61 from $0.24. The company ended the quarter with $3.7 billion in cash and sold 657 million pounds of copper, 121,000 ounces of gold, and 24 million pounds of molybdenum. For the full year 2026, Freeport aims to sell approximately 3.1 billion pounds of copper, 650,000 ounces of gold, and 90 million pounds of molybdenum.

Amarc Resources announced that the 2026 field program has begun at the JOY Copper-Gold District in north-central British Columbia, fully funded by Freeport-McMoRan through their joint venture company AuRORA Minerals Ltd. The drill-focused program will continue step-out drilling at the gold-rich AuRORA porphyry copper-gold-silver deposit, which was expanded in 2025 to an area of 1.4 kilometers by 0.8 kilometers and remains open for expansion, while also initiating early-stage metallurgical and preliminary project development studies. Additional drilling will follow up on the TWINS copper-gold discovery located approximately 17 kilometers south of AuRORA, where a 2025 hole intercepted 300 meters at 0.51 grams per tonne gold and 0.23 percent copper, including higher-grade intervals. Geological, geochemical, and geophysical surveys will also be conducted across the district to refine a pipeline of porphyry copper-gold deposit targets for future drill testing. Freeport holds a 60 percent interest in the joint venture and has elected to earn a further 10 percent by funding an additional 75 million Canadian dollars in staged expenditures, while Amarc serves as the primary contractor managing exploration programs.

Freeport-McMoRan is being positioned as a more attractive copper investment than Southern Copper as a 50% U.S. copper import tariff that took effect August 1, 2025 directly benefits America's largest domestic producer. Southern Copper trades at a forward P/E of 39 and an EV/EBITDA of 16 despite a 4% year-over-year production decline, with six strong sell ratings and zero strong buys. Freeport-McMoRan, by contrast, trades at a forward P/E of 23 and an EV/EBITDA of 10, and its U.S. mines segment generated $2.20 billion in first-quarter 2026 revenue, capturing the COMEX premium from the tariff structure. CEO Kathleen Quirk targets a 60% increase in U.S. copper production from domestic assets alone, with a Bagdad expansion decision expected later in 2026. Freeport has beaten EPS estimates for eight consecutive quarters, including a 21.28% surprise in the first quarter of 2026, and management models roughly $17.5 billion in annual EBITDA at $6 per pound copper.

The Global X Copper Miners ETF, trading under the ticker COPX, delivered a trailing 12-month return of 92.29% through June 23, sharply outperforming the United States Oil Fund, or USO, which was dragged down by contango and a 22.3% drop in West Texas Intermediate crude over the past month. COPX holds 46 copper mining stocks, with top positions Freeport-McMoRan and Southern Copper reporting sharply higher earnings as copper prices rose, a leverage effect that USO cannot replicate. The U.S. added copper to its Critical Minerals list, and demand is projected to rise materially through 2040, driven by grid buildout, electric vehicles, and AI data centers. COPX carries a 0.65% expense ratio on 7.71 billion dollars in assets and pays a trailing dividend of 1.92 dollars, equivalent to a 2.42% yield, while USO pays nothing. The fund’s 52-week range of 41.51 to 99.99 dollars highlights its volatility, and it dropped 11.49% in the past week alone, reflecting mine-level operational risks and jurisdictional exposure in Peru, Chile, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

Freeport-McMoRan is advancing multiple organic growth projects aimed at significantly increasing its copper production capacity. The company has completed evaluation of a large-scale expansion at El Abra in Chile, identifying an estimated resource of approximately 20 billion recoverable pounds of copper that could support a major mill project. In Arizona, pre-feasibility studies at Safford/Lone Star are targeted for completion in 2026, while expansion opportunities at Bagdad could more than double concentrator capacity and add 200-250 million pounds of annual copper production. PT Freeport Indonesia is developing the Kucing Liar ore body with a targeted ramp-up in 2030, and 2025 studies showed potential to increase design capacity to 130,000 metric tons of ore per day and reserves by roughly 20% at low costs. The company believes effective execution of these projects will strengthen its ability to drive shareholder value.

Freeport announced that its Board of Directors declared cash dividends of $0.15 per share on its common stock, payable on August 3, 2026, to shareholders of record as of July 15, 2026. The declaration includes a base dividend of $0.075 per share and a variable dividend of $0.075 per share in accordance with the company's performance-based payout framework. The payment of dividends is at the discretion of the Board, which will consider Freeport's financial results, cash requirements, global economic conditions and other factors it deems relevant.

Copper demand is surging as artificial intelligence data centers require up to 50,000 tons per facility, far exceeding the 5,000 to 15,000 tons needed for traditional data centers. Cloud computing providers like Meta Platforms, Amazon, and Alphabet plan to spend some $765 billion this year on AI infrastructure, according to Goldman Sachs, a figure that's expected to increase to more than $1.6 billion by 2031. S&P Global predicts global copper supply will fall 24% short of demand by 2040, with prices already up 57% over five years. Freeport-McMoRan, the world's largest publicly traded copper company, has seen its stock rise 70% in the past year, while Southern Copper, the second-largest, has more than doubled. The Global X Copper Miners ETF, holding 41 copper miner stocks with net assets of about $8.2 billion, has also more than doubled in price over the same period.

Freeport-McMoRan shares, last closing at US$69.06, may be undervalued by about 28% according to a Simply Wall St discounted cash flow model that estimates fair value at US$95.32. A separate narrative-based valuation pegs fair value at US$67.95, suggesting the stock is slightly overvalued by 1.6%. The bullish case rests on brownfield expansions in North and South America expected to bring 2.5 billion pounds of new copper supply online in tight markets. Key risks include regulatory pressure in Indonesia and potential ore grade declines at major assets.