Goldman Reiterates Buy on Freeport-McMoRan as Copper Hits $14,745

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Goldman Sachs reiterated its Buy rating on Freeport-McMoRan on September 10, calling the copper miner's recent selloff overdone after Reuters indicated the White House had yet to decide whether to impose refined copper tariffs. Copper reached $14,745 per ton on September 22 as Shanghai inventories fell to 43,900 tons, their lowest level since 2023, and management estimates every $0.10 per pound change in copper prices could affect annual EBITDA by roughly $390 million in 2027 and 2028. Freeport expects second-half 2026 copper sales to exceed the first half by more than 20%, followed by another increase of more than 20% in 2027, while targeting 300 million pounds of annualized copper production from its leach initiative by year-end. On the cost side, the company's $2.50-per-pound U.S. cost target for 2027 is currently unattainable with U.S. costs closer to $3.00, and the preliminary cost of the Bagdad expansion has risen to about $4.5 billion, roughly 30% above its 2023 estimate, with 2027 capital spending expected at about $4.8 billion. Hedge fund ownership rose from 82 to 92 holders in the second quarter, and short interest climbed to 30.69 million shares as of August 31 from 27.79 million a month earlier, representing 2.15% of the float.

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Copper reached $14,745 per ton as Shanghai inventories fell to 43,900 tons, their lowest level since 2023.

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