Analyst Ratings

The research arm of CGS International Securities (Thailand), or CGSI, estimates that the eight banks it covers will report combined net profit of 57.4 billion baht in the third quarter of 2026, down 9.2% from the same period a year earlier but up 1.8% from the previous quarter. It expects pre-provision profit to fall 6.8% year on year and rise 1.7% quarter on quarter. Total loans in the third quarter of 2026 are likely to show slower expansion after large corporate customers of BBL and KKP repaid substantial loans in August, pulling the combined loans of the banks under coverage down 0.1% from the previous month, though they remain up 3.0% from a year earlier and up 2.4% from the end of 2025. The banks with positive loan growth are led by CREDIT, KTB and TISCO. On individual results, KKP is expected to post the strongest net profit growth in the group at 32.2% year on year and 4.0% quarter on quarter, followed by TTB with growth of 4.6% year on year and 0.7% quarter on quarter. BBL is expected to be the weakest, with net profit down 24.5% year on year, followed by KTB with a 16% decline year on year. CGSI maintains a Neutral investment weighting on the banking sector and picks KBANK as its top pick, citing its high fee income share from wealth business, at 18% of non-interest income in 2025, and a high dividend yield of 6.2% in 2026 versus the sector average of 5.6%.

Sansiri Public Company Limited, or SIRI, reported presales of 36.4 billion baht for the first nine months of 2026, ending September 30, 2026, equal to 76% of its full-year sales target of 48 billion baht. Wichan Wiriyaphusit, Chief Financial Officer, said demand for housing from the real demand segment remains steady in both low-rise projects and condominiums. Over the past nine months, the company sold out 18 projects with a combined value of more than 23.5 billion baht, and it holds a backlog of more than 24 billion baht awaiting revenue recognition. The company has also partnered with leading partner banks to help real demand customers, from assessing financial readiness and credit planning to improving credit for those who have not yet passed approval criteria. For the fourth quarter of 2026, Sansiri plans to launch 12 new projects with a combined value of about 11 billion baht, comprising six low-rise projects and six condominium projects, to push sales past the 48 billion baht target. Krungsri Securities recommends Buy with a fair value of 1.90 baht, highlighting a high dividend yield of about 8.9%, while Kasikorn Securities sees operating results improving amid intense competition.

Several brokers have issued research notes recommending a buy on Gunkul Engineering, or GUNKUL, after it signed a partnership agreement with Gulf Development, or GULF, to set up a joint venture for renewable energy projects. Bualuang Securities said GUNKUL signed power purchase agreements, or PPAs, for an additional 261.8 megawatts in phase 2 renewable energy projects, and sold a 50 percent stake in seven project companies, or SPVs, with total capacity of 673.4 megawatts to GULF for 467 million baht. The deal helps keep 26 billion baht of project debt off GUNKUL's balance sheet and opens the door to EPC backlog not yet included in estimates. It maintained its buy rating with a target price of 6.50 baht. Krungsri Securities upgraded the stock to Buy from Neutral with a 2027 target price of 6.30 baht per share based on a sum-of-the-parts method, split into 4.05 baht per share for the power business and 2.24 baht per share for the EPC and trading business. It also raised its 2026 to 2028 profit forecasts by an average of 8 percent, putting profit at 2.1 billion, 2.1 billion and 3.3 billion baht, an average growth rate of about 25 percent a year, with clear growth expected in 2028 after commercial operation, or COD, of large renewable energy projects in the Philippines. Asia Plus Securities kept its estimates and 2027 fair value at 6.40 baht per share, saying the restructuring does not significantly affect long-term project returns, and recommended gradually accumulating the stock for the long term. GUNKUL shares closed the morning session at 5.15 baht, up 0.10 baht or 1.98 percent.

Analysts from 5 securities firms recommend "buying" shares of Thai Union Group (TU) with target prices in the range of 13.90 - 16 baht, expecting third-quarter profit of 1.309 - 1.420 billion baht, with strong growth, and believe that the surge in tuna costs has already passed its peak, with long-term positive factors beginning to provide support. Yuanta Securities raised its 2026 - 2027 profit forecasts by 18% and 4% respectively, and set a new target price of 16.00 baht, an upside gain of 29%, expecting normal profit in 3Q26 of 1.420 billion baht, up 4.3% QoQ and 17.4% YoY, on revenue of 35.882 billion baht. Krungsri Securities maintained its Buy recommendation with a target price of 15.50 baht, expecting normal profit in 3Q26F of about 1.349 billion baht and normal profit forecasts for 2026-2027F of 5.135 billion baht and 5.970 billion baht respectively. Maybank Securities recommends buying with a target price of 14.50 baht, expecting net profit in 3Q69 of 1.3 billion baht, with results scheduled for reporting on 2 November. Pi Securities assesses fair value at 15.4 baht, expecting normal profit in 3Q26 of 1.400 billion baht, and states that flooding has not affected the group's production in any way. Meanwhile, Trinity Securities gives a target price of 13.90 baht, expecting profit in 3Q69 of 1.309 billion baht, up 4% QoQ and flat YoY, with gross margin expected at 20.6%, and maintains its 2026 profit forecast at 4.7 billion baht.

Brokers remain positive on agricultural and food stocks, with natural rubber prices up 2.8% from the previous week to a 13-year high on tight supply after heavy rain and flooding in growing areas. Sugar prices rose 1.4% on concerns over a super El Nino phenomenon, with the US Department of Agriculture expecting Thai sugar output in the 2026/27 production year to fall by about 15-17%. Domestic broiler prices held steady at 45.50 baht per kilogram, above the cost of about 37.50 baht per kilogram, and marked their highest level in more than three years since June 2023. Thai pork prices fell 5.7% from the previous week to 66.50 baht per kilogram on heavy rain and slowing purchasing power ahead of the vegetarian festival. Krungsri Securities maintains a positive view on the agricultural and food sector, picking TFG as its top long-term stock with a target price of 14.20 baht, an expected dividend yield of about 8% and quarterly dividend payments, while also highlighting TVO, STA and NER as stocks that benefit from the super El Nino theme. Pi Securities gives the meat sector a market-weight rating and picks GFPT as its top stock, with Thai chicken exports in September worth a total of about 401 million US dollars, up 6% from a year earlier.

Phillip Securities (Thailand) said in an analysis dated 2 October 2026 that it expects WHA Utilities and Power, or WHAUP, to post normalised third-quarter 2026 profit of about 499 million baht, flat from the same period a year earlier and down slightly by 0.5% from the previous quarter. The result is supported by higher revenue from the solar business as commercial operation dates continue to come on stream, a share of profit from the Gheco-one power plant returning to above-normal levels, and coal prices trending higher than a year earlier. These factors are partly offset by the water business, where volumes rose but recognition of capacity charges remained below the high base of the third quarter of 2025, while the SPP power plant business still faces pressure from higher natural gas costs, with no adjustment to the Ft tariff for industrial power sales during the period. For the water business outlook in the second half of 2026, capacity charges are expected to be lower than in the first half, but data centres will gradually begin operations from the fourth quarter of 2026 through 2027, which should drive a significant acceleration in water usage. The research team also expects normalised profit for the first nine months of 2026 to be about 1.202 billion baht, up 25.3% from the same period a year earlier, on the back of a still-strong power and utilities business. Phillip therefore maintains its Buy rating on WHAUP with a 2027 target price of 9.45 baht per share.

SBI Thai Online Securities Company Limited, in an analysis dated October 2, 2026, selected PTG Energy Public Company Limited, or PTG, as a Top Pick stock, taking a positive view of its second-half 2026 earnings outlook on the recovery of the oil business alongside the expansion of its non-oil business. For its second-quarter 2026 results, PTG reported a net profit of 74 million baht, up 76.3% from the same period a year earlier, and a turnaround to profit from a loss of more than 205 million baht in the first quarter of 2026. Revenue from sales and services came to approximately 61.9 billion baht, up 9.5% from a year earlier and 8.9% from the previous quarter. The oil business was supported by improved marketing margins, with gross profit per liter at about 1.83 baht per liter, up from 1.66 baht per liter in the second quarter of 2025 and 1.29 baht per liter in the first quarter of 2026. Meanwhile, the non-oil business, especially the Punthai coffee brand, continued to grow on branch expansion, with about 2,467 branches as of the end of the second quarter of 2026, and the company aims to expand to about 2,751 branches by the end of 2026. SBI estimates PTG's EBITDA growth at around 0-5% from a year earlier. PTG's share price at the time of the analysis was 8.30 baht, while the average consensus target price for 2026 stood at 8.40 baht.

Apichat Poobanjerdkul, Senior Director of the Strategic Analysis Department at Tisco Securities, said Tisco Securities assesses that the overall Thai economy and stock market are beginning to show stronger fundamentals, driven by private investment, the AI and data center investment cycle, and continued growth in electronic component exports. The Thai economy also stands to gain support from large-scale infrastructure investment, particularly the PDP 2026 power development plan, which is expected to involve investment of as much as 2 to 3 trillion baht to meet electricity demand from AI, data centers, and new industries. If carried out as planned, it is expected to add at least 0.5% per year to GDP growth. On earnings, listed companies posted record highs in revenue, net profit, and EBITDA in the second quarter of 2026, with the SET Index showing a correlation of 0.88 with listed-company profits. As a result, the announcement of third-quarter 2026 earnings in mid-October will be the factor setting the market's direction going forward. Meanwhile, Thai stock valuations remain attractive; excluding DELTA, the market trades at a 12-month forward PER of just 11.8 times, about 60% of listed companies trade below book value, and the average dividend yield is around 3.9%, higher than the regional market average of 3.4%. For its October strategy, Tisco Securities recommends diversifying across several themes, with its standout stocks for October being BH, DELTA, KBANK, PTTEP, SJWD, TRUE, and TVO. It estimates SET support at 1,560 to 1,580 points and 1,540 points, with resistance at 1,610, 1,630, and 1,660 points. It views short-term weakness as an opportunity to accumulate gradually. For overseas stock investment through DRs in October, Tisco Securities has selected NVDA80 and ZIJIN80, based on their laggard price performance, with NVDA up about 20% compared with the SOXX index's gain of more than 80%, which it sees as limiting downside risk.

Four leading brokerages estimate that the combined net profit of seven commercial banks in the third quarter of 2026 will slow compared with a year earlier and hold steady to edge down from the previous quarter, with combined net profit expected at around 49,400 to 54,980 million baht, according to Yuanta Securities (Thailand), Bualuang Securities, Finansia Syrus Securities, and Kasikorn Securities. The main pressures come from net interest margins narrowing along the rate-cutting cycle, lower investment and FVTPL gains from a high base a year earlier, and still-limited growth in retail and SME loans. These are partly offset by lighter provisioning after many banks front-loaded reserves in the first half, a steady average non-performing loan ratio of about 3.5%, and fee income beginning to recover on wealth management and capital markets business. For the fourth-quarter outlook, the brokerages see the overall picture weakening further both year on year and quarter on quarter, possibly marking the year's low, while for the full year 2026 they expect the bank group's combined net profit to fall about 3.5% to 5.3% before returning to roughly 5% growth in 2027. On top picks, Yuanta chose KKP with a target price of 130 baht, Bualuang chose KKP, TISCO, BBL, KBANK and TTB, Finansia Syrus chose BBL with a target price of 240 baht and KTB with a target price of 47.30 baht, while Kasikorn chose KTB and KKP, raising their target prices by 1% to 3%.

Land and Houses Securities Public Company Limited has issued an analysis focusing on investment trends in CK and KKP shares, expecting CK's third-quarter 2026 earnings to recover from the previous quarter. Although the construction contracting business may slow seasonally and gross margins return to normal levels, support is expected from its share of profit at CKP, which is entering the high season for hydropower plants, as well as from BEM, which is trending better on passenger numbers. In the medium term, support comes from the government infrastructure investment cycle, which is becoming clearer, especially Phase 2 of the double-track railway project, where three routes worth a combined 106 billion baht have already been approved. Meanwhile, high-speed rail, expressways, motorways, and airports are still awaiting progress. CK currently has a backlog of about 146 billion baht, supporting revenue for several years. The analyst team gives a buy recommendation on CK with a target price of 23.1 baht, support at 17.8 and 18.1 baht, and resistance at 19.6 and 20.1 baht. For KKP, third-quarter 2026 profit is expected at 2.0 billion baht, still growing a strong 21% year on year despite a slight 4.8% decline quarter on quarter. The main drivers are a return to loan growth, especially business loans and Lombard loans, a NIM that holds steady at a good level, and fee income from wealth management, the capital markets business, and Dime!, which is growing strongly. Meanwhile, lower losses from repossessed vehicles help ease cost pressure. Asset quality remains manageable, with the NPL ratio expected to hold steady at around 3.5% and the coverage ratio near 150%. Full-year 2026 profit is likely to grow more than 30% year on year, with ROE returning to around 12%, while a dividend yield of about 6% helps limit the downside for the share price. The analyst team gives a buy recommendation on KKP with a target price of 128 baht, support at 108.5 and 113 baht, and resistance at 118.5 and 120 baht.

ASL Securities said budget disbursement for fiscal year 2026 came in better than target, with 3.62 trillion baht disbursed out of a total budget of 3.78 trillion baht, or 95.83%, above the 93% target and 4.58% higher than the same period a year earlier. This reflects improved efficiency in channeling state funds into the economy, with capital expenditure accelerating notably year on year. Capital spending disbursed reached 586 billion baht, or 75.07% of the 781 billion baht investment budget, up 8.63% year on year. Meanwhile, capital expenditure set aside for carry-over disbursement in fiscal year 2027 stood at 193 billion baht, or 24.75% of the capital expenditure budget, and the government has set a deadline to accelerate the creation of commitments for both carry-over and fiscal 2027 investment budgets within the second quarter of fiscal 2027. Given these factors, ASL Securities views this as positive sentiment for groups tied to public investment. It recommends the construction sector, namely CK and STECON, which benefit directly from accelerated public investment and disbursement, and the banking sector, namely KTB, BBL and KBANK, which benefit indirectly through increased liquidity flowing into the system and a recovery in loan demand. KTB stands out for its government customer base, while BBL and KBANK stand to gain from a recovery in corporate lending and the subsequent pickup in private investment.

Shell plc is weighing the potential sale of its U.S. chemicals operations for as much as $8 billion, part of a broader portfolio optimization push that also includes a new deep-water acquisition and a retail expansion. In September, Shell Offshore acquired a 30% interest in Conifer, an exploration prospect operated by BP in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico, while subsidiary Equilon Enterprises LLC will raise its stake in Tri Star Energy from 33% to 100%, enabling supply arrangements with close to 650 dealer-owned locations and expanding Shell's Mobility & Convenience US portfolio to around 550 company-owned convenience sites. The moves follow a second quarter in which record refinery utilization and upstream production in Brazil drove adjusted earnings to $9.8 billion, with a $3.4 billion working capital inflow helping generate $21.4 billion in cash flow from operations. The recently finalized ARC Resources acquisition eases concerns about resource depletion, though it was financed largely with shares, diluting existing shareholders. Morgan Stanley recently lifted its price target on Shell to $101.30, and the stock closed at $95.61 on October 1, up 29.50% so far in 2026, with a market capitalization of $267.76 billion and a forward P/E of 9.57x.

FTC Solar's fair value estimate has been lifted from US$8.88 to US$10.20, a roughly 15% increase in the updated model, as analysts weigh product traction and new orders against balance sheet risk. UBS lifted its price target slightly to US$3.60 from US$3.50, citing a product driven turnaround and pointing to recent U.S. and Australian orders plus initial shipments on the Fraser Coast project as evidence that the one module in portrait and First Solar compatible tracker solutions are gaining customer acceptance. Roth Capital cut its price target to US$7 from US$10 after what it called light Q2 results and a weak Q3 outlook, flagging execution risk around near term revenue and margin delivery. Roth also noted that FTC Solar breached debt covenants in Q2 2026 and obtained a lender waiver, the third covenant amendment since November 2025, and that Q3 guidance sits below the covenant threshold so further issues may occur. The updated model raised the revenue growth assumption from 42.00% to 47.33% and the future P/E multiple to 33.1x from 22.0x, while lowering the net profit margin assumption to 2.65% from 3.81% and raising the discount rate to 11.68% from 11.44%.

Krungsri Securities maintains a "Buy" rating on Advanced Info Service Public Company Limited, or ADVANC, with a target price of 430 baht based on the DCF method. Against the latest closing price of 349 baht, that implies 23% upside. It expects net profit for the third quarter of 2026 at 13,426 million baht, up 11.5% year on year but down 2.1% quarter on quarter. The sequential slowdown stems from higher network-related costs and a larger share of losses recognized from the Virtual Banking business. Core revenue excluding IC is expected at 45,600 million baht, up 4.8% year on year and 0.5% quarter on quarter, driven by the mobile and fixed broadband businesses. Total revenue is expected at 57,739 million baht, up 6.2% year on year and 2.2% quarter on quarter. EBITDA is expected at 32,829 million baht, up 4.5% year on year but down 0.3% quarter on quarter. On the subscriber base, total mobile users are expected at 47.247 million numbers, up 2.1% year on year and 0.3% quarter on quarter, split into 14.022 million postpaid and 33.225 million prepaid numbers. Blended ARPU is 242 baht per month, up 3.5% year on year and 0.9% quarter on quarter. Fixed broadband customers stand at 5.386 million, up 3.5% year on year and 0.7% quarter on quarter. Krungsri also maintains its 2026 profit forecast at 53,325 million baht, growing 15.9% year on year. If third-quarter 2026 results come in as expected, they would represent 76% of the full-year profit forecast, and profit momentum is expected to reaccelerate in the fourth quarter of 2026 on seasonal tourism and high levels of consumer spending. It also sees upside risk to its profit forecast of about 3% to 4% and expects a dividend yield of 4.9% for 2026. For 2026, it forecasts revenue of 236,447 million baht, EBITDA of 126,968 million baht, and net profit of 53,325 million baht.

Yuanta Securities (Thailand) has raised its fair value for Ratch Group, or RATCH, to 46.25 baht per share from 32 baht, and upgraded its recommendation from Trading to Buy, implying roughly 25.9% upside from the share price of 36.75 baht on October 1, 2026. In an analysis dated October 2, 2026, the brokerage said it holds a positive view on several new investment opportunities whose prospects became clearer in late 2026, particularly the renewal of the power purchase agreement, or PPA, for the Ratchaburi power plant and the opportunity to sell electricity to data center operators. Currently, units 1-2 of the RG power plant, with combined capacity of about 1,470 megawatts, saw their contracts expire in October 2025, while three remaining units with total generating capacity of about 2,175 megawatts are due to see their contracts expire in November 2027. If the PPAs are not renewed, the company has the option of selling the output to data center operators, and is in talks with about five to six customers, each of which needs no less than 300 megawatts, while the existing site and infrastructure can support demand of up to about 1,400 megawatts. In addition, the draft PDP 2026 plan, which covers 2027-2037 and targets an increase in total power generation capacity of about 50 gigawatts, is another positive factor. It comprises about 24.3 gigawatts of solar power, nearly 14.5 gigawatts of wind power, about 2.7 gigawatts of natural gas-fired plants, about 9.1 gigawatts of hydropower and the first small modular nuclear reactor, or SMR, with capacity of about 300 megawatts. For the third-quarter 2026 outlook, the research team expects RATCH to post normal profit of about 1.4 billion to 1.6 billion baht, up from the previous quarter, after the RG and HKP power plants returned to more efficient operation and with no major maintenance shutdowns. SG&A expenses are also likely to fall on a seasonal basis, but profit is expected to decline from the same period a year earlier, partly because of the impact of the expiry of the PPAs for units 1-2 of the RG power plant from October 2025.

Analysts at several securities firms hold a positive view on Bangchak Corporation Public Company Limited, or BCP, after its sustainable aviation fuel business, SAF, began contributing significantly to earnings. BCP's SAF plant started commercial operations on 21 May 2026, with an investment of about 8.5 billion baht and a production capacity of roughly 7,000 barrels per day, or about 1 million litres per day. In the second quarter of 2026, its average capacity utilisation rate was approximately 6,800 barrels per day, with product sales of about 39 million litres, generating EBITDA of roughly 1 billion baht for BCP, or nearly 4% of total EBITDA. Asia Plus Securities gives a trading view with a target price of 58 baht. Trinity Securities recommends a speculative buy with a target price of 55 baht. Yuanta Securities Thailand has upgraded its recommendation to buy with a target price of 58 baht, and Land and Houses Securities maintains a buy recommendation with a target price of 56 baht. Over the longer term, BCP plans to raise SAF production capacity from 7,000 barrels per day to about 10,000 barrels per day within five years, largely using existing infrastructure. Meanwhile, demand for SAF looks set to grow on the back of Thailand's plan to push SAF blending, which aims to start at 1% and increase in later phases. However, competition for UCO feedstock still bears watching, as it could put pressure on costs.

Asia Plus Securities Public Company Limited, or ASPS, recommends an investment strategy focused on three stocks with specific positive factors and strong earnings structures: CPALL, THAI, and BH, as a shelter from flood situations and inflation pressure. Its research department assesses that the construction materials sector is a group that benefits from flooding, while retail, hospitals, and food also receive support. Groups to watch include electronics, power plants, construction contractors, agriculture, and commercial banks, while groups negatively affected include tourism, property development, and non-bank hire-purchase. Meanwhile, the Thai stock market faced accelerating net selling by foreign investors, hitting a 39-week high for the year 2569, with a value of more than 26.8 billion baht in the past week. At the same time, domestic inflation in September 2569 is likely to accelerate to 3.0% from 2.5% the previous month, which could pressure the Monetary Policy Committee, which has currently cut interest rates to 1.00%, to consider raising rates if inflation stays at a high level for too long. In addition, Thailand must also cope with risks from storms and flash floods during 4-7 October 2569, with a preliminary assessment that if flooding persists for one week, it will cause economic damage of 5,000-10,000 million baht and drag third-quarter 2569 GDP growth down to 2.1-2.3%.

Yuanta Securities issued a research note maintaining its Buy recommendation on AP (Thailand) Public Company Limited, or AP, with a fair value of 9.45 baht per share, based on a PER of 6.4 times, representing an upside gain of 21.2% from the current price, and expects a 2026 dividend of 0.56 baht per share, representing a dividend yield of 7.18%. It expects normal profit in the second half of 2026 at 2,659 million baht, growing 35.2% compared with the first half and 8.7% compared with the same period last year, supported by a backlog of low-rise projects at an all-time high and the start of transfers at high-value condominium projects, namely Rhythm Charoennakhon Iconic, which is 85% sold, and Life Sathorn-Narathiwas 22, which is 35% sold, a joint venture project with a combined value of 6,800 million baht, as well as Life Charoennakhon-Sathorn, which is 68% sold with a value of 2,500 million baht. Second-half 2026 presales are expected at approximately 27,000 to 28,000 million baht, growing both half-on-half and year-on-year, driven by a plan to launch new projects worth a combined 33,820 million baht, up 47% half-on-half, comprising 31 new projects in total: 27 low-rise projects worth 28,820 million baht and 4 high-rise projects worth 4,500 million baht. Meanwhile, the impact from flooding is expected to be limited, with 22 of 246 low-rise projects affected and only 7 projects currently on sale, representing 3.5% of all 199 projects on sale. No condominium projects were affected.

Shares of Kiatnakin Phatra Bank, or KKP, rose 2.00 baht, or 1.79%, to 114.00 baht on trading value of 158.96 million baht, after Pi Securities estimated that third-quarter 2026 net profit will come in at about 2 billion baht, up 19% from the same period a year earlier but down 6% from the previous quarter. The gain is driven by higher net interest income on the back of a strong net interest margin of around 4%, along with expanding fee income, particularly in wealth management and the Dime business, while losses from repossessed cars continued to decline. Total loans are expected to expand 0.5% from the previous quarter, bringing loan growth for the first nine months of 2026 to 3.7% from the end of last year. On asset quality, the non-performing loan ratio is expected to hold steady at 3.5% and the coverage ratio at 149.5%. Pi Securities maintained its buy recommendation and raised its target price to 130 baht, based on 2027 fundamental value, and expects net profit to grow 35% in 2026 from a year earlier before slowing to 4.5% in 2027. Return on equity is expected to rise to 12.1% in 2026 and 12.3% in 2027, from 9.3% in 2025, while dividend yield is forecast at 6.3% in 2026 and 6.6% in 2027, after an interim dividend of 3.25 baht per share was already paid for the first half of 2026, with another 3.82 baht per share expected in the second half of the year.

Finansia Securities said GULF is well positioned to link energy infrastructure and ICT businesses with AI, with a strong financial position and capacity to take on an additional 200-300 billion baht in debt. It estimates that added capacity under PDP 2026 could create roughly 10 baht per share of upside for GULF, assuming EGAT opens bidding for about 10GW of new renewable energy projects next year and GULF secures a 40% share, or roughly 4GW of solar projects, under power purchase agreements at a feed-in tariff of 2.16 baht per kWh. Investment is expected to require about 25-30 million baht per MW, with an IRR of approximately 12%. On the AI megatrend, electricity demand is expected to grow faster than GDP, especially demand for clean power from data centers, which are more power-intensive than general industry. Key catalysts include the new PDP, Direct PPAs for 2GW of data centers, and opportunities to invest in renewable energy projects in Europe over the next year. The research team maintained its Buy recommendation and raised its target price to 89.50 baht per share to reflect the opportunity to add capacity from bidding under the new PDP, as well as the acquisition of a 50% stake in solar and wind projects from GUNKUL, representing total capacity of 339.5MW on a proportional ownership basis. The acquired projects are estimated to have a combined NPV of about 9.7 billion baht based on a DCF valuation with a WACC of 5.5%, adding roughly 0.5 baht per share, with net IBD/E of only 1.06 times.

Kasikorn Securities assesses that the commercial banking sector's core operations are on a gradual recovery path. It expects the combined profit of the seven banks under its coverage in the third quarter of 2026 to reach 49.4 billion baht, down 2% from the second quarter of 2026 and down 15% from the third quarter of 2025, pressured by non-operating items. The main supporting factor comes from lower interest costs, with the net interest margin expected to rise 0.2% from the previous quarter, while loan-loss provisioning expenses are expected to fall 0.7% as management's additional reserves decline. For the fourth quarter of 2026 and continuing into 2027, loan growth is expected to accelerate, driven mainly by corporate and government lending, while retail and SME loans remain weak. On investment strategy, Kasikorn Securities maintains a positive view on the banking sector, selecting KKP and KTB as its top picks with buy recommendations and target prices of 153 baht and 48 baht respectively. It has also shifted the valuation base year for the entire banking sector from mid-2027 to the end of 2027 and raised individual target prices by 1-3%, without changing its earnings forecasts.

Asia Plus Securities rates THAI with a 2027 target price of 6.80 baht and maintains a Tactical Buy recommendation after the company resumed all flights from 3 October 2026, having cut 15 and 9 flights on 1-2 October respectively. The board resolved to investigate the facts surrounding the late-September 2026 flood incident and to review the crisis management process, suspending the CEO during the investigation and appointing board member Samrit Samniang as acting CEO from 2 October 2026. Although the impact of the flight cuts on the fourth quarter of 2026 remains limited compared with TG's total flights at Suvarnabhumi, which averaged about 120 departures per day in August, investors still need to monitor the investigation and long-term solutions to ground handling problems, including the adequacy of staffing, equipment and emergency response processes. Employee expenses in the first half of 2026 accounted for 12% of OPEX, and every 10% change in employee expenses would move profit by 7%. Normalised profit for 2027 is forecast to recover 25% from a low base, with jet fuel, at about 37% of OPEX, the key variable, on an assumption of 117 US dollars per barrel versus the IATA jet fuel average year-to-date through 25 September 2026 of 161 US dollars per barrel. The share price is down 18% year-to-date, the worst performer in the sector compared with the SET's 25% gain, and Brent holding below 85 US dollars per barrel is likely to be a positive sentiment for the stock.

Asia Plus Securities said the number of Middle Eastern tourists in September rose 18.8% year on year, though it fell 43.1% from the previous month on seasonal factors. That brought the third quarter of 2026 up 12.9% year on year and 142.4% quarter on quarter, reflecting a gradual return of travel to normal and a positive signal for the Middle Eastern patient trend at private hospital groups. The research team views this as a positive factor for third-quarter 2026 earnings after Middle Eastern patients began to recover from the impact of the Iran war, with most returning patients being complex and critical cases that carry high revenue per case and high margins, supporting the prospect that profits will recover faster than revenue. This is consistent with the number of Middle Eastern tourists in the third quarter of 2026, with the UAE up 29.8% year on year and Saudi Arabia up 21% year on year, while Qatar and Oman rose 1% and 4% year on year respectively. The research team maintained an overweight stance on the hospital group and buy ratings on BH, PR9 and BDMS, choosing BH as the top pick because it has the highest share of revenue from Middle Eastern patients in the group at about 23%, followed by PR9 at about 10% and BDMS at about 4%. It kept 2027 target prices at 225.00 baht, 23.00 baht and 25.00 baht respectively.

Phillip Securities (Thailand) Public Company Limited estimates that Muangthai Capital Public Company Limited, or MTC, will post net profit of about 2 billion baht in the third quarter of 2026, up 18.4% from the same period a year earlier and 7.2% from the previous quarter, marking a record high for a 13th consecutive quarter, driven by interest income growing in line with loan expansion while interest expenses trend lower, even as the company may face higher expenses and provisioning. The research team expects loans in the third quarter of 2026 to expand 3.1% from the previous quarter, accelerating from 2.6% in the second quarter of 2026, bringing loan growth from the end of 2025 to about 5.8% year-to-date. However, that acceleration may come with pressure on asset quality, with non-performing loans expected to continue rising. Phillip Securities maintains its net profit forecast for MTC in 2026 at 7.6 billion baht, up 13.4% from a year earlier, and keeps its 2027 target price at 42 baht per share with a buy recommendation.

Several brokers expect the Thai stock market to trade in positive territory today. Finansia Syrus Securities sees the SET Index in a range of 1,565-1,583 points, helped by US Nonfarm Payrolls for September 2026, which rose by 29,000, below economists' forecast of 84,000 and below the prior 12-month average of 45,000, while the unemployment rate came in at 4.2%, higher than expected. As a result, the market has cut the probability of an October rate hike to just 22%. CGS International (Thailand) sees a range of 1,560-1,585 points, and DAOL sees a range of 1,545-1,552 up to 1,600 points. All three brokers are also watching Thailand's September inflation figures, with the market expecting headline inflation of 3.1% year-on-year and core inflation of 1.56% year-on-year, as well as the US ISM services index for September, expected to rise to 55.7, and the Fed meeting minutes due Wednesday night. The stock they all recommend is DELTA, with Finansia setting a 2027 target price of 290 baht and expecting third-quarter 2026 profit to accelerate to 8.3 billion baht and fourth-quarter 2026 profit momentum to reach 10 billion baht, lifting full-year 2026 profit to 32 billion baht. DAOL recommends bank stocks KTB, KBANK and KKP, along with data center and power plant theme stocks GPSC, BGRIM and ADVANC. It also noted that foreign investors were net sellers of Thai stocks to the tune of 850.49 million baht on October 2, 2026, and that the baht closed at 33.55 baht per dollar.

Krungsri Securities expects the Thai stock market to recover this week and test resistance at 1,594-1,600 points, with support at 1,556-1,547 points, after the market has already priced in part of the US central bank's rising interest rate cycle, limiting volatility from external factors. Meanwhile, the Conference Board's September 2026 survey on the difficulty of finding a job came in at its lowest level in five years, signaling that US labor data late last week will begin to slow and that the chance of a positive surprise beyond market expectations of 100,000 plus or minus is limited. On the domestic front, the market is closely monitoring the flood situation, but reservoir levels and late-season rainfall show no unusually severe signals, so the market is expected to recover if flood impacts remain within normal levels. Top picks this week are DELTA, which benefits most from the AI CAPEX cycle with a 2027 forecast target price of 320 baht; PTTGC, which has upside synergy from a petrochemical joint venture with SCC and a BB Consensus target price of 59 baht; and KBANK, whose share price has already reflected flood concerns with limited actual risk and a 2027 forecast target price of 300 baht. Last week's recommended stocks DELTA, AOT and AWC delivered an average return of negative 1.59%, still better than the SET Index, which fell 2.24%.

Better World Green Public Company Limited, or BWG, has confirmed that its waste landfill in Saraburi province carries no risk of flooding, as it sits on ground well above road level and sea level. Ms. Nattaphan Luengwiriya, a director and deputy managing director for business development and corporate communications, told Than Hoon that the company expects fourth-quarter 2026 operating results to be close to the same period a year earlier, and that full-year 2026 performance should be roughly flat versus the prior year, with EBITDA this year likely holding steady amid persistent pressure from oil costs. BWG reported total revenue of 2.76 billion baht for 2025 and EBITDA of 1.495 billion baht. Meanwhile, the new Power Development Plan, whose public consultation concluded on September 15, 2026, opens the door for the company to expand further into the power plant business. Most recently, on September 29, 2026, TRIS Rating affirmed BWG's corporate credit rating at BBB with a stable outlook, and expects waste management volumes to grow about 2% per year during 2026-2028, SRF sales to rise about 5% per year over the same period, and EBITDA from the waste management business to recover from 360-380 million baht in 2026 to 640-670 million baht by 2028.

Refinery stocks are getting a boost from the Singapore reference refining margin, which rose to around 20.5 dollars per barrel in late September 2026 and is expected to hold at high levels. Suwat Sinsadok, managing director of Global Securities, said the fourth-quarter 2026 refining margin will be close to the 20.5 dollars per barrel seen in the third quarter and could reach as high as 30 dollars per barrel given tight global oil supply. He set a target price of 88 baht per share for Thai Oil, or TOP, the most outstanding stock in the group. Sorachai Pitayapruek, a fundamental analyst at Krungsri Securities, said the catalyst came from an attack on the East-West oil pipeline in Saudi Arabia that forced a temporary shutdown, pushing tanker freight rates from more than 10 dollars per barrel to more than 20 dollars per barrel. He expects the fourth-quarter 2026 refining margin to stay in double digits, supported by winter oil storage demand. Third-quarter 2026 earnings for the refinery group are expected to recover clearly, especially TOP, which posted a stock loss of about 7 billion baht in the second quarter of 2026 and may instead book a stock gain. Krungsri Securities maintained a positive investment weighting on refinery stocks, naming TOP the most outstanding with a target price of 83 baht, supported by its Clean Fuel Project.

AtriCure's fair value price target has shifted from about US$51.67 to about US$54.89, reflecting modest fine tuning in analyst models rather than a wholesale reset. BTIG raised its AtriCure price target to US$55 from US$45, pointing to the new STS Quality Metric, which it thinks could support greater use of the EnCompass Clamp in U.S. surgery patients with preoperative atrial fibrillation, and noting that only about 35% of atrial fibrillation patients undergoing cardiac surgery in the U.S. currently receive a surgical ablation. BTIG models potential upside to AtriCure's U.S. Open Ablation revenue of US$10m to US$25m in 2027 and US$20m to US$55m in 2028 compared with its prior forecasts. UBS keeps a Buy rating on AtriCure alongside a revised price target of US$50 from US$55, citing business growth excluding MIS as support for what it describes as sustainable double digit top line expansion. Freedom Capital downgraded AtriCure to Hold from Buy and lifted its target to US$57 from US$43, expecting BoX-NoAF POAF data in Q2 2027 to be positive but flagging that earlier supportive data carries caveats, which it thinks reduces the margin for error if results or execution fall short of expectations. Revenue growth assumptions are broadly steady, moving from about 12.33% to about 12.35%, net profit margin expectations remain around 4.55%, future P/E has moved from about 94.5x to about 101.3x, and the discount rate is broadly unchanged, moving from about 7.52% to about 7.55%.

SMT shares closed the morning session at 6.80 baht, up 0.15 baht or 2.26%, after touching an intraday high of 6.90 baht, supported by three factors. First, positive sentiment in the electronics sector, with DELTA, HANA and KCE leading the market this morning after US employment figures came in below expectations, easing market worries that the Fed will accelerate rate hikes, while US semiconductor stocks surged on Friday night. Second, SMT has its own specific catalyst from its Optical business, which involves optical signal transmission and stands to grow with AI and data centers. Yuanta Securities expects orders from global Optical customers to gradually increase and sees a clearer impact on revenue and margin over the next two quarters. Third, Yuanta expects normal profit in the third quarter of 2026 to grow 65% quarter-on-quarter, and sees 2026 profit swinging from a loss of 146 million baht in 2025 to a profit of 150 million baht. For 2027, it expects profit to grow 88% year-on-year to 282 million baht. It has therefore raised its end-2027 fair value to 8.40 baht and maintained its buy recommendation. The closing price on 2 October already set a new 52-week high at 6.90 baht, while Yuanta's target price of 8.40 baht remains well above the current price.