Bernstein: US e-commerce growth tops forecast at 10% as Shopify and Walmart gain share

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Summary · why it matters

US e-commerce growth has run at about 10% year-on-year through the first three quarters of 2026, beating Bernstein's 8% forecast made at the start of the year, the broker said. Bernstein estimates third-quarter growth at about 8.4%, with second and third quarter growth combined at about 10.4% after adjusting for the timing of Prime Day, while first-quarter growth was 9.7%. The broker pointed to better digital advertising, resilient consumer spending and less aggressive competition from online retailers such as Temu and Shein, and sees the advertising improvement as a potentially lasting tailwind. The top 14 US e-commerce platforms accounted for about 82% of gross merchandise value in the second quarter, up roughly 3 percentage points from a year earlier, with Shopify's share rising to 14.2% from 13.2%, Walmart's to 8.7% from 7.8% and Amazon's to 42.9% from 42.3%. Bernstein estimates second-quarter growth of 52% for Carvana, 25% for Walmart, 24% for eBay and 21% for Shopify, against 14% for Amazon and 12% for the overall market, and rates Amazon, Shopify and Wayfair outperform while eBay and Etsy are rated market perform.

Impact on assets 13

Consumer Discretionary▲ · 6 stocks
Carvana Co
CVNA
▲ PositiveDemandrelevance

Bernstein estimates 52% second-quarter growth for Carvana, the fastest among platforms tracked.

eBay Inc
EBAY
± MixedDemandrelevance

eBay is estimated at 24% growth but rated only market perform by Bernstein.

Wayfair Inc
W
▲ PositiveDemandrelevance

Bernstein rates Wayfair outperform amid stronger-than-forecast US e-commerce growth and resilient consumer spending.

Etsy, Inc.
ETSY
± MixedDemandrelevance

Etsy is rated market perform with no specific growth estimate highlighted.

Artificial Intelligence▲ · 2 stocks
Amazon.com Inc
AMZN
▲ PositiveDemandrelevance

Amazon's e-commerce GMV share rose to 42.9% from 42.3% and it is rated outperform amid strong US e-commerce growth.

Cloud & Digital Infrastructure▲ · 2 stocks
Shopify Inc
SHOP
▲ PositiveDemandrelevance

Shopify's GMV share rose to 14.2% from 13.2% with 21% estimated growth and an outperform rating.

Consumer Staples▲ · 2 stocks
Walmart Inc.
WMT
▲ PositiveDemandrelevance

Walmart's e-commerce share rose to 8.7% from 7.8% and Bernstein estimates 25% Q2 growth, well above the 12% market rate.

Others▲ · 1 stocks

Off-coverage companies 1

Bernstein (Societe Generale / AllianceBernstein JV)Private± Mixed
relevance

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