Moderna Q2 Earnings Loom: Buy or Sell the Stock Ahead of Results?

โดย Zacks Investment Research·Read original
Summary · why it matters

Moderna is set to report second-quarter 2026 earnings on July 31 before the opening bell, with the Zacks Consensus Estimate pegging sales at $126.7 million and a loss of $1.97 per share. The revenue figure suggests a decline from the year-ago levels, but the bottom line is expected to improve. Over the past 30 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2026 loss per share has widened from $8.26 to $8.64, while the 2027 loss estimate has risen from $4.29 to $4.33. The biotech has beaten earnings estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, delivering an average surprise of 46.21%, including a 60.93% beat in the last reported quarter. However, the Zacks model does not predict a beat this time, as Moderna has an Earnings ESP of -2.41% and a Zacks Rank of 3. Key factors shaping the upcoming results include product sales from two COVID-19 vaccines, Spikevax and mNexspike, and the RSV vaccine mResvia, with the majority of sales expected from COVID-19 vaccines and minimal sales from mResvia due to stiff competition from GSK's Arexvy and Pfizer's Abrysvo. Investors will also seek updates on the commercialization plans for mCombriax, the first combination vaccine against COVID-19 and influenza, which secured EU approval in April, as well as the timeline for FDA resubmission after the initial filing was voluntarily withdrawn last year. Additionally, the FDA decision on Moderna's standalone flu shot, mRNA-1010, is expected by next week, with optimism building after an FDA advisory committee unanimously backed approval. Another key pipeline candidate is intismeran autogene, a personalized cancer therapy developed in collaboration with Merck, which is being evaluated in three pivotal phase III studies in melanoma and non-small cell lung cancer, along with mid-stage studies for other cancer indications. Year to date, Moderna's shares have surged 89%, significantly outperforming the industry's 2% growth, the sector, and the S&P 500, though the stock trades at a premium valuation of 9.91 times trailing 12-month sales compared to the industry's 2.35. Moderna held approximately $8.1 billion in cash and cash equivalents as of March 31, 2026, which, combined with cost-efficiency initiatives, should support its research, development, and commercialization efforts. While the premium valuation and downward estimate revisions warrant caution, existing investors are advised to maintain their positions given the approaching FDA decision on mRNA-1010, the recent EU approval of mCombriax, and a deep pipeline spanning oncology and other therapeutic areas.

Impact on assets 5

Biotech & Genomic Medicine▼ · 4 stocks
Moderna Inc
MRNA
± MixedCapitalrelevance

Earnings preview with mixed signals: expected sales decline but bottom-line improvement, past beats, but current ESP negative.

GSK plc
GSK
▼ NegativeCompetitionrelevance

GSK's RSV vaccine Arexvy is mentioned as stiff competition for Moderna's mResvia.

Pfizer Inc
PFE
▼ NegativeCompetitionrelevance

Pfizer's RSV vaccine Abrysvo is mentioned as stiff competition for Moderna's mResvia.

Critical Materials & Supply Chain▲ · 1 stocks

Theme Impact 1

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Sanofi, Novartis and Novo Nordisk Lead Week of Multi-Billion-Dollar Healthcare Deals

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NOVN.SW · Demand · Positive Novartis signed a licensing and option agreement with Abogen worth up to $7.8B covering ABO2203.
SAN.PA · Demand · Positive Sanofi agreed to an up-to-$8B deal with Regeneron to jointly develop four long-acting immunology therapies.
Abogen Biosciences · Demand · Positive Abogen Biosciences licensed its lead asset ABO2203 to Novartis in a deal worth up to $7.8B.
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MRNA · Regulation · Negative Delaware judge rejected Moderna's motion to dismiss Monsanto's mRNA patent infringement lawsuits over its COVID-19 vaccine.
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