Vaxcyte's Next Year Hinges on VAX-31 Trial Results

Eli Lilly & Co. will pursue slightly larger acquisitions, along the lines of its $7.8 billion purchase of Centessa Pharmaceuticals Plc, as it searches for assets in the "white spaces" of science, Chief Executive Officer Dave Ricks said. Lilly, now the world's largest pharmaceutical company, has been on a record spending spree funded by its weight-loss and diabetes shots, and Ricks told Bloomberg that reinvesting in human health is more attractive than buying back shares or issuing dividends. He pointed to infectious disease, women's health and psychiatric conditions as areas of opportunity, noting the company acquired three vaccine-makers for as much as $3.8 billion earlier this year and recently agreed to buy psychedelics firm AtaiBeckley Inc. for about the same price. Lilly has completed about 40 deals so far this year, with a total value of more than $20 billion, the highest ever in a single year according to Bloomberg-compiled data. Ricks said the company favors more mature assets when they address brand new problems, a shift from its historical focus on earlier-stage, cheaper drugs.

Merck's CAPVAXIVE has been included in Ontario's publicly funded adult pneumococcal immunization program, the company announced. The vaccine, approved by Health Canada for adults 18 and older, helps prevent invasive pneumococcal disease caused by 21 Streptococcus pneumoniae serotypes, including serious infections such as sepsis, meningitis, and bacteremic pneumonia. Canadian surveillance data from 2019 to 2023 showed that the serotypes included in CAPVAXIVE accounted for approximately 65% of IPD cases in adults aged 18 to 49, approximately 74% of cases in adults aged 50 to 64, and approximately 80% of cases in adults aged 65 and older, based on data from the Public Health Agency of Canada. Matthew Thornhill, Executive Director of the Vaccines and HIV Business Unit at Merck Canada, said Ontario's decision reflects the importance of ensuring immunization programs continue to respond to changing public health needs and disease trends. In Canada, approximately 3,000 cases of invasive pneumococcal disease are reported each year.

Moderna and Merck reported that their Phase 3 INTerpath-001 trial of personalized cancer vaccine intismeran autogene plus Keytruda met its primary endpoint in melanoma, with full data presented earlier this month at the European Society for Medical Oncology Congress 2026. Moderna is also in talks with Middle East partners about potential investment and manufacturing cooperation, pairing its mRNA oncology push with efforts to extend its geographic footprint and industrial capabilities beyond its original COVID-19 franchise. The company recently won FDA approval of mFlusiva, its mRNA flu vaccine for adults 50 and older, underscoring its push to build a non-seasonal respiratory portfolio. Moderna's narrative projects $4.5 billion revenue and $782.2 million earnings by 2029, yielding a $119.56 fair value, a 40% downside to its current price, while some of the most optimistic analysts assume revenue could reach about US$8.5 billion and earnings turn positive by 2029.