Cleveland-Cliffs vs Steel Dynamics: why the prices moved differently

Weekly · monthly · quarterly news summaries, side by side in time

Cleveland-Cliffs Inc (CLF)

Q3 202622 Jun – 31 Aug 2026

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Cliffs' earnings surge and defense deal offset by downgrade and tariff risks

Earnings surge and strong guidance Cleveland-Cliffs' Q2 adjusted EBITDA tripled to $286 million, and Q3 guidance doubled to about $575 million, driven by solid domestic demand and subdued imports. Shares jumped 16% on the news.
This is the main positive force behind the stock's move this quarter.
Defense contract and plant upgrade Cliffs won a five-year U.S. Defense contract worth up to $400 million for electrical steel and announced a $1 billion upgrade at its Middletown Works, half-funded by a DOE grant, extending the blast furnace's life and cutting costs.
These new deals support future revenue and efficiency, boosting investor confidence.
Analyst downgrade on peak steel rally Morgan Stanley downgraded Cleveland-Cliffs to Equal-weight, arguing the steel rally is peaking and largely priced in. This suggests limited upside ahead and weighed on sentiment.
This is a key negative factor that tempered the stock's gains.
Mixed tariff impact from U.S.-Canada framework A tentative U.S.-Canada framework halving tariffs to 25% could pressure U.S. steel prices, but may benefit Cliffs' Stelco operations. The net effect on Cliffs remains uncertain.
This policy change creates both risks and opportunities, making the overall impact mixed.

July 202622 Jun – 31 Aug 2026

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Cliffs wins defense deal, advances $1B Ohio upgrade as tariff war swings steel

Cliffs wins $400M U.S. Defense electrical steel contract Cliffs secured a five-year, up-to-$400 million contract to supply grain-oriented electrical steel to all U.S. military branches. This locks in steady, high-value demand for a specialized product, supporting revenue and helping the stock.
A new, concrete order win that adds durable demand and is not in earlier reports.
Morgan Stanley downgrades CLF, says steel rally near peak Morgan Stanley cut Cliffs to Equal-weight, arguing the supply-driven steel price rally is peaking and much of the benefit is already priced in. It raised its target to $12.50 but sees limited upside, a caution for the stock.
A new analyst downgrade that directly questions how much more the stock can gain.
U.S.-Canada trade war swings steel stocks Trade talks collapsed, setting up 50% tariffs on Canadian steel and counter-tariffs. Cliffs' electric-arc furnaces avoid Canadian ore, so it could gain from higher prices, but its stock is still down for 2026 on balance-sheet stress.
A new escalation in tariffs that changes the competitive landscape and carries both upside and risk.

Latest22 Jun – 31 Aug 2026

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Cliffs wins defense deal, advances $1B Ohio upgrade as tariff war swings steel

Cliffs wins $400M U.S. Defense electrical steel contract Cliffs secured a five-year, up-to-$400 million contract to supply grain-oriented electrical steel to all U.S. military branches. This locks in steady, high-value demand for a specialized product, supporting revenue and helping the stock.
A new, concrete order win that adds durable demand and is not in earlier reports.
Morgan Stanley downgrades CLF, says steel rally near peak Morgan Stanley cut Cliffs to Equal-weight, arguing the supply-driven steel price rally is peaking and much of the benefit is already priced in. It raised its target to $12.50 but sees limited upside, a caution for the stock.
A new analyst downgrade that directly questions how much more the stock can gain.
U.S.-Canada trade war swings steel stocks Trade talks collapsed, setting up 50% tariffs on Canadian steel and counter-tariffs. Cliffs' electric-arc furnaces avoid Canadian ore, so it could gain from higher prices, but its stock is still down for 2026 on balance-sheet stress.
A new escalation in tariffs that changes the competitive landscape and carries both upside and risk.

August 202623 Jul – 21 Aug 2026

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Cliffs' profit surge, $1B Ohio upgrade, and lower Canada tariffs

Q2 profit tripled, Q3 guidance doubled Cliffs' second-quarter adjusted EBITDA tripled from the first quarter to $286 million, and management expects it to roughly double again to about $575 million in the third quarter. Strong domestic steel demand and subdued imports are driving the improvement, which is why the stock jumped 16%.
This is the core earnings turnaround that explains why CLF moved sharply higher this period.
US to halve tariffs on Canadian steel A tentative US-Canada trade framework would cut tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum from 50% to 25%, with possible quotas. That means more Canadian steel can enter the US at lower cost, pressuring prices for US producers. CLF and peers fell up to 7.5% on the news.
This is the main new headwind that pushed CLF shares down during the period.
$1B Middletown upgrade with $500M DOE grant Cliffs will spend $1 billion to modernize its Middletown Works in Ohio, half-funded by a US Department of Energy grant. The project extends the blast furnace's life and cuts costs, keeping it competitive in automotive steel. Shares rose 7% on the news.
This is a major new capital investment that improves CLF's long-term cost position and lifted the stock.
Lower Canada tariffs also help Stelco The same tentative US-Canada deal that pressures US steel prices could benefit Cliffs' Canadian Stelco operations by reducing tariffs on its exports. This partly offsets the negative impact on Cliffs' US mills, making the overall tariff effect mixed rather than purely negative.
It shows a real counterweight to the tariff headwind, giving a fair picture of the net impact on CLF.

23 Jul – 21 Aug 2026

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Cliffs' profit surge, $1B Ohio upgrade, and lower Canada tariffs

Q2 profit tripled, Q3 guidance doubled Cliffs' second-quarter adjusted EBITDA tripled from the first quarter to $286 million, and management expects it to roughly double again to about $575 million in the third quarter. Strong domestic steel demand and subdued imports are driving the improvement, which is why the stock jumped 16%.
This is the core earnings turnaround that explains why CLF moved sharply higher this period.
US to halve tariffs on Canadian steel A tentative US-Canada trade framework would cut tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum from 50% to 25%, with possible quotas. That means more Canadian steel can enter the US at lower cost, pressuring prices for US producers. CLF and peers fell up to 7.5% on the news.
This is the main new headwind that pushed CLF shares down during the period.
$1B Middletown upgrade with $500M DOE grant Cliffs will spend $1 billion to modernize its Middletown Works in Ohio, half-funded by a US Department of Energy grant. The project extends the blast furnace's life and cuts costs, keeping it competitive in automotive steel. Shares rose 7% on the news.
This is a major new capital investment that improves CLF's long-term cost position and lifted the stock.
Lower Canada tariffs also help Stelco The same tentative US-Canada deal that pressures US steel prices could benefit Cliffs' Canadian Stelco operations by reducing tariffs on its exports. This partly offsets the negative impact on Cliffs' US mills, making the overall tariff effect mixed rather than purely negative.
It shows a real counterweight to the tariff headwind, giving a fair picture of the net impact on CLF.

Steel Dynamics Inc (STLD)

Q3 202618 Jun – 18 Sep 2026

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Record steel shipments and AI demand drive STLD, but aluminum losses and peak fears cap gains

Record steel shipments and strong pricing Steel Dynamics shipped a record 3.7 million tons in Q2, with net income of $534 million and steel profit up 30% on strong pricing. This shows robust demand and pricing power.
It highlights the core operational strength that drove financial performance.
AI data-center demand and bullish Q3 guidance AI data-center demand and a bullish Q3 earnings guide of $5.34–$5.38 per share, with backlog up about 50%, support the stock. This signals confidence in future growth.
It points to a key demand driver and management's positive outlook.
Aluminum segment losses and impairment The aluminum segment lost $33 million and took a $16 million impairment charge, even as the Mississippi mill ramps toward commercial shipments. This drags on overall profitability.
It represents a significant financial setback and risk to earnings.
Peak rally warning and tariff retaliation Morgan Stanley warns the steel rally is near its peak, and US-Canada tariff retaliation hurts exports. Q3 guidance missed the $5.60 consensus, sending shares down 2–3%.
It captures external risks and market reaction that capped upside.

September 202619 Aug – 18 Sep 2026

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Steel Dynamics: Tariff Whiplash and a Strong Q3 Guide That Still Missed Estimates

US-Canada tariff fight swings both ways The US first floated halving Canadian steel tariffs to 25%, then talks collapsed and 50% tariffs returned, helping STLD by keeping Canadian steel out. But Canada hit back on Sept 8 with its own tariffs on US steel, hurting STLD's exports there. Net effect is choppy but leans positive for US pricing.
This is the main force moving STLD this period, with both a positive and negative side.
Q3 guidance shows a big profit jump STLD guided Q3 earnings to $5.34-$5.38 per share, far above last quarter's $3.69 and last year's $2.74. Record shipments, higher prices, lower scrap costs, and a backlog nearly 50% bigger than a year ago all point to strong demand from construction, data centers, and manufacturing.
This is the clearest new evidence of STLD's underlying business strength and future earnings power.
Guidance still missed Wall Street's target Even though the Q3 guide was a big step up, it came in below the $5.60 analysts expected, and the stock fell about 2-3% on the news. That gap shows expectations were already high and the market was disappointed, a real counterweight to the bullish numbers.
It explains why a strong-sounding guide still pushed the stock down and balances the positive guidance point.
Aluminum expansion keeps advancing STLD said its new Columbus, Mississippi aluminum mill is ramping up: all three cold mills are running and the first heat-treat line should ship commercial material in Q4. Aluminum earnings are expected to improve meaningfully, adding a new growth leg beyond steel.
It shows a new source of future earnings that supports the long-term investment case.

Latest19 Aug – 18 Sep 2026

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Steel Dynamics: Tariff Whiplash and a Strong Q3 Guide That Still Missed Estimates

US-Canada tariff fight swings both ways The US first floated halving Canadian steel tariffs to 25%, then talks collapsed and 50% tariffs returned, helping STLD by keeping Canadian steel out. But Canada hit back on Sept 8 with its own tariffs on US steel, hurting STLD's exports there. Net effect is choppy but leans positive for US pricing.
This is the main force moving STLD this period, with both a positive and negative side.
Q3 guidance shows a big profit jump STLD guided Q3 earnings to $5.34-$5.38 per share, far above last quarter's $3.69 and last year's $2.74. Record shipments, higher prices, lower scrap costs, and a backlog nearly 50% bigger than a year ago all point to strong demand from construction, data centers, and manufacturing.
This is the clearest new evidence of STLD's underlying business strength and future earnings power.
Guidance still missed Wall Street's target Even though the Q3 guide was a big step up, it came in below the $5.60 analysts expected, and the stock fell about 2-3% on the news. That gap shows expectations were already high and the market was disappointed, a real counterweight to the bullish numbers.
It explains why a strong-sounding guide still pushed the stock down and balances the positive guidance point.
Aluminum expansion keeps advancing STLD said its new Columbus, Mississippi aluminum mill is ramping up: all three cold mills are running and the first heat-treat line should ship commercial material in Q4. Aluminum earnings are expected to improve meaningfully, adding a new growth leg beyond steel.
It shows a new source of future earnings that supports the long-term investment case.

July 202618 Jun – 21 Jul 2026

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Steel Dynamics beats on record shipments, but aluminum charges weigh

Record Q2 steel shipments and profit Steel Dynamics reported Q2 net income of $534 million on record steel shipments of 3.7 million tons, with steel operations profit up 30% from the prior quarter on higher prices and wider metal spreads. This confirms strong demand and pricing power, supporting the stock.
This is the period's biggest positive fundamental event, directly showing earnings power.
AI data centers drive steel demand The VanEck Steel ETF hit a 52-week high as AI infrastructure buildout boosts demand for structural steel. Steel Dynamics is a top holding, and its electric arc furnaces can supply premium AI-grade steel, adding a new growth driver beyond traditional markets.
It explains a fresh demand source that lifts the whole steel sector, including STLD.
Aluminum segment losses and $16M charge The aluminum ramp-up posted a $33 million operating loss, and an additional $16 million non-cash impairment charge was recorded. These drag on overall profit and show the new aluminum business is still losing money, a real counterweight to the steel strength.
It is the main negative in the latest earnings and explains why the stock dipped despite a beat.
Analyst sees steel rally peaking Morgan Stanley kept Steel Dynamics at Equal-weight and raised its target to $270, but warned the supply-driven steel price rally is near its peak and profitability could decline after 2027 as new supply and imports ease the market. This caps upside enthusiasm.
It gives a balanced view on future pricing, a key driver for STLD's earnings.

18 Jun – 21 Jul 2026

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Steel Dynamics beats on record shipments, but aluminum charges weigh

Record Q2 steel shipments and profit Steel Dynamics reported Q2 net income of $534 million on record steel shipments of 3.7 million tons, with steel operations profit up 30% from the prior quarter on higher prices and wider metal spreads. This confirms strong demand and pricing power, supporting the stock.
This is the period's biggest positive fundamental event, directly showing earnings power.
AI data centers drive steel demand The VanEck Steel ETF hit a 52-week high as AI infrastructure buildout boosts demand for structural steel. Steel Dynamics is a top holding, and its electric arc furnaces can supply premium AI-grade steel, adding a new growth driver beyond traditional markets.
It explains a fresh demand source that lifts the whole steel sector, including STLD.
Aluminum segment losses and $16M charge The aluminum ramp-up posted a $33 million operating loss, and an additional $16 million non-cash impairment charge was recorded. These drag on overall profit and show the new aluminum business is still losing money, a real counterweight to the steel strength.
It is the main negative in the latest earnings and explains why the stock dipped despite a beat.
Analyst sees steel rally peaking Morgan Stanley kept Steel Dynamics at Equal-weight and raised its target to $270, but warned the supply-driven steel price rally is near its peak and profitability could decline after 2027 as new supply and imports ease the market. This caps upside enthusiasm.
It gives a balanced view on future pricing, a key driver for STLD's earnings.