Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. is a steel producer operating in the United States and Canada. It offers a range of steel products including hot-rolled, cold-rolled, and coated steels, stainless and electrical steels, plate, slab, and tubular components. The company also provides non-steelmaking products such as stamped components, tool and die, tubing, scrap, iron ore, HBI, coal, and coke. It engages in iron ore mining, pellet and direct reduced iron production, and ferrous scrap processing. Formerly known as Cliffs Natural Resources Inc., it changed its name to Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. in August 2017. Founded in 1847, it is headquartered in Cleveland, Ohio.
Cliffs wins defense deal, advances $1B Ohio upgrade as tariff war swings steel
▲
Cliffs wins $400M U.S. Defense electrical steel contract Cliffs secured a five-year, up-to-$400 million contract to supply grain-oriented electrical steel to all U.S. military branches. This locks in steady, high-value demand for a specialized product, supporting revenue and helping the stock.
A new, concrete order win that adds durable demand and is not in earlier reports.
▼
Morgan Stanley downgrades CLF, says steel rally near peak Morgan Stanley cut Cliffs to Equal-weight, arguing the supply-driven steel price rally is peaking and much of the benefit is already priced in. It raised its target to $12.50 but sees limited upside, a caution for the stock.
A new analyst downgrade that directly questions how much more the stock can gain.
◆
U.S.-Canada trade war swings steel stocks Trade talks collapsed, setting up 50% tariffs on Canadian steel and counter-tariffs. Cliffs' electric-arc furnaces avoid Canadian ore, so it could gain from higher prices, but its stock is still down for 2026 on balance-sheet stress.
A new escalation in tariffs that changes the competitive landscape and carries both upside and risk.
Q3 2026
▲2▼1
Cliffs' earnings surge and defense deal offset by downgrade and tariff risks
▲
Earnings surge and strong guidance Cleveland-Cliffs' Q2 adjusted EBITDA tripled to $286 million, and Q3 guidance doubled to about $575 million, driven by solid domestic demand and subdued imports. Shares jumped 16% on the news.
This is the main positive force behind the stock's move this quarter.
▲
Defense contract and plant upgrade Cliffs won a five-year U.S. Defense contract worth up to $400 million for electrical steel and announced a $1 billion upgrade at its Middletown Works, half-funded by a DOE grant, extending the blast furnace's life and cutting costs.
These new deals support future revenue and efficiency, boosting investor confidence.
▼
Analyst downgrade on peak steel rally Morgan Stanley downgraded Cleveland-Cliffs to Equal-weight, arguing the steel rally is peaking and largely priced in. This suggests limited upside ahead and weighed on sentiment.
This is a key negative factor that tempered the stock's gains.
◆
Mixed tariff impact from U.S.-Canada framework A tentative U.S.-Canada framework halving tariffs to 25% could pressure U.S. steel prices, but may benefit Cliffs' Stelco operations. The net effect on Cliffs remains uncertain.
This policy change creates both risks and opportunities, making the overall impact mixed.
News & notes movingCLF
CanadaUnited States
Critical Materials & Supply Chain▼
Cleveland-Cliffs Falls 8% as Stelco Idles Ontario Plant Over US Tariffs
Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. shares tumbled nearly 8% in late Monday trading after reports that its Canadian subsidiary, Stelco Holdings Inc., plans to halt operations at a key Ontario processing facility. According to a letter to customers obtained by Bloomberg News, Stelco expects to indefinitely idle its cold-rolled and coated operations at Hamilton Works in the coming weeks, with the wind-down scheduled to begin on Oct. 9 and expected to result in approximately 350 job cuts, according to local reporting from the Hamilton Spectator. The curtailment comes as Canadian steelmakers face pressure from a 50% U.S. tariff maintained under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act, which Stelco said Ottawa's countermeasures proved insufficient to offset. To mitigate the fallout, Cleveland-Cliffs is shifting primary manufacturing focus to its more integrated Lake Erie Works facility in Nanticoke, Ontario, and Cliffs spokesperson Patricia Persico said in an emailed statement to Bloomberg that total steel output will remain unchanged even as the product mix pivots toward a higher concentration of hot-rolled coil. Stelco said it will honor existing customer orders during the transition while maintaining full capacity for hot-rolled steel deliveries.
CLF · Tariff · Negative Stelco, its Canadian subsidiary, is idling Hamilton Works cold-rolled/coated operations due to the 50% US Section 232 steel tariff, cutting ~350 jobs.
Stelco Holdings Inc. · Tariff · Negative Stelco is indefinitely idling its Hamilton Works cold-rolled and coated operations, cutting ~350 jobs, as the 50% US tariff outweighs Ottawa's countermeasures.
STEEL · Tariff · Positive The 50% US tariff curbing Canadian steel supply and Stelco's idled coated/cold-rolled output tightens US HRC supply, supporting domestic hot-rolled coil.
Cleveland-Cliffs Confirms US$1 Billion Middletown Modernization Backed by US$500 Million DOE Award
Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. has confirmed a US$1.00 billion modernization program for its Middletown Works steel facility in Ohio, supported by a US$500.00 million award from the U.S. Department of Energy, to be deployed over four years while keeping production online. The plan rescopes a prior decarbonization initiative and targets efficiency and reliability upgrades at one of the company's key U.S. plants. The project does not materially change near-term earnings catalysts, though it addresses the risk of an aging, carbon-intensive asset base that could otherwise require heavy catch-up capex. Cleveland-Cliffs reported higher quarterly sales and a narrower net loss year over year in its Q2 2026 results, even as the business remains unprofitable. The company's narrative projects $23.2 billion in revenue and $1.1 billion in earnings by 2029, yielding a $12.00 fair value, a 4% downside to its current price, while more cautious analysts assume revenue of about US$21.7 billion and earnings of roughly US$537.7 million by 2029.
Commercial Metals Targets Over $350 Million in TAG Program EBITDA Benefits by Fiscal 2027
Commercial Metals Company expects its TAG Transform, Advance, Grow program to deliver run-rate gross EBITDA benefits exceeding $250 million by the end of fiscal 2026, rising to more than $350 million by the end of fiscal 2027. Launched in 2024, the program spans more than 150 individual projects across the company's business segments and support functions, aimed at optimizing logistics, reducing input consumption, lowering costs and boosting energy efficiency. Backed by the program, CMC expects fiscal 2029 core EBITDA of $1.65 billion to $1.80 billion, a 106% surge at the midpoint from the $837 million delivered in fiscal 2025, with a core EBITDA margin of 15-16%. Separately, Cleveland-Cliffs is investing $1 billion to modernize its Middletown Works facility in Ohio, half of it funded by a $500 million U.S. Department of Energy award, while Carpenter Technology set a fiscal 2029 operating income target of $1.2 billion to $1.3 billion, up from $702 million reported in fiscal 2026. The Zacks Consensus Estimate puts CMC's fiscal 2026 sales at $9.18 billion, up 13.9% year over year, and earnings at $6.62 per share, up 111.5%.
CMC · Capital · Positive CMC's TAG program targets >$350M run-rate EBITDA benefits by fiscal 2027 and core EBITDA of $1.65-1.80B by fiscal 2029.
CLF · Capital · Neutral Cleveland-Cliffs is investing $1 billion to modernize Middletown Works, half funded by a $500M DOE award — a capex event, but only a passing mention.
CRS · Capital · Neutral Carpenter Technology set a fiscal 2029 operating income target of $1.2-1.3B, mentioned only in passing.
US Steel and Materials Stocks Swing as US-Canada Trade War Escalates to 50% Tariffs
Steel and materials stocks swung between rallies and pullbacks as the US-Canada trade relationship shifted from near agreement to open dispute, with the US imposing 50% tariffs on a wide variety of Canadian exports on August 22. Nucor Corporation and Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. rose on August 25 after talks between the two countries broke down, a reversal from the prior week when several of the same stocks fell on hopes a deal would lower steel and aluminum tariffs; the VanEck Steel ETF gained 1.6% that day while the State Street Materials Select Sector SPDR hit an intraday high, though by week's end the materials ETF had slipped to negative territory and the steel ETF was about flat, with both still substantially up for 2026. The escalation followed a Bloomberg report on August 19 that the US and Canada had tentatively agreed to cut tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum to 25% and vehicle charges to 15%, before Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney declared Canada officially "at war" with the United States and Ottawa announced counter-tariffs of C$27.6 billion on American goods, effective September 8 at rates of 15% to 50%. Moody's chief credit officer Atsi Sheth said, "Expect much more of this uncertainty for some time to come." Nucor, which relies primarily on scrap-based electric arc furnace steelmaking, is up more than 50% year-to-date, while the vertically integrated Cleveland-Cliffs remains negative for 2026 despite similar structural insulation, which analysts attribute to balance sheet stress rather than tariffs.
CLF · Tariff · Positive US 50% tariffs on Canadian exports and collapse of the deal to cut steel/aluminum tariffs benefit domestic steelmakers like Cleveland-Cliffs.
NUE · Tariff · Positive Nucor rose as the US-Canada trade talks broke down and 50% tariffs were imposed, shielding domestic steel from Canadian competition.
Canada's Retaliatory Tariffs on U.S. Goods Take Effect
Canada's retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods took effect at 12:01 a.m. on September 8, imposing duties of 15%, 25%, and 50% on about C$27.6 billion ($20 billion) of U.S. imports, including steel, aluminum, dairy, appliances, agricultural equipment, pulp and paper, plastics, and electronics. The measures escalate an 18-month trade dispute following the collapse of negotiations between Ottawa and Washington, and come after the U.S. imposed new 50% duties on Canadian exports in August. U.S. companies to watch include Nucor, Steel Dynamics, Cleveland-Cliffs, Alcoa, Deere, Caterpillar, Whirlpool, Kraft Heinz, General Mills, Eaton, Emerson Electric, Honeywell, International Paper, Dow, LyondellBasell, General Motors, and Ford, among others. Bombardier faces added uncertainty after President Donald Trump threatened to block its aircraft from the U.S. market unless it manufactures in the U.S. The dispute could weigh on Canadian growth, exports, and business investment, with Canadian exports to the U.S. already falling 6.6% in July.
U.S. Steel Stocks Swing Amid U.S.-Canada Trade War
U.S. steel and aluminum stocks surged and then retreated last week as the escalating trade war between the United States and Canada sent investors scrambling to reprice exposure to North American metals supply chains. The State Street Materials Select Sector SPDR (XLB) reached a new intraday record on Monday, Aug. 25, but by Friday's close it had slipped into the red for the week, while the VanEck Steel ETF (SLX) was essentially unchanged. Through Aug. 28, SLX has gained more than 28% on the year and XLB more than 18%. The swing reflects the complexity of a trade war between two countries whose metals industries are deeply intertwined. Dan Luttner, managing partner of NEOS by Argon & Company, characterized the initial stock move as a repricing reflex rather than a durable signal, noting that Nucor and Cleveland-Cliffs use electric arc furnace technology with no dependence on Canadian ore or slab, positioning them to capture tariff-driven pricing benefits. However, Cleveland-Cliffs stock is in negative territory for 2026 due to balance sheet stress, and Century Aluminum remains exposed because its raw inputs largely still flow across the Canadian border. Atsi Sheth, chief credit officer at Moody's Ratings, said uncertainty will persist, while Scott Beaulier, a University of Wyoming economics professor, urged caution against drawing firm conclusions from early stock moves. Canada announced counter-tariffs on $27.6 billion worth of American goods last Tuesday, matching a 50% U.S. tariff on Canadian exports, with measures scheduled to kick in on Sept. 8. President Donald Trump has separately threatened to raise tariffs on Canadian autos, trucks, and steel to 50% on Jan. 1, 2027.
CENX · Tariff · Negative Century Aluminum remains exposed because its raw inputs largely still flow across the Canadian border amid the U.S.-Canada trade war.
CLF · Tariff · Neutral Cleveland-Cliffs' EAF technology avoids Canadian ore/slab dependence, positioning it to capture tariff-driven pricing benefits, but its stock is in negative territory for 2026 on balance sheet stress.
NUE · Tariff · Positive Nucor's electric arc furnace technology has no dependence on Canadian ore or slab, positioning it to capture tariff-driven pricing benefits.
Cleveland-Cliffs Secures DOE Support for Middletown Works Upgrade
Cleveland-Cliffs has secured U.S. Department of Energy support to finalize a major co-funded investment at its Middletown Works facility, part of a four-year, US$1 billion project that includes advanced technological upgrades and a new cogeneration facility. The agreement is expected to have a significant employment impact and supports the company's broader sustainability goals in steel production. For investors, the project targets lower unit costs and better free cash flow through improved energy efficiency and reliability, while addressing concerns about legacy blast furnace assets. A key milestone to watch is the planned completion of the Middletown blast furnace rebuild in the first quarter of 2030, with progress to be tracked in quarterly filings.
Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF) shares rose 1.95% to $11.52, outpacing the S&P 500's 0.32% gain, though the stock has dropped 7.76% over the past month versus the sector's 15.1% rise. The company is expected to report earnings of $0.25 per share for the upcoming quarter, a 155.56% increase year-over-year, with revenue projected at $5.6 billion, up 18.28%. For the full year, consensus estimates call for a loss of $0.12 per share and revenue of $21.09 billion, representing shifts of +95.16% and +13.34% respectively. Over the last 30 days, the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate has moved 28.13% higher, and Cleveland-Cliffs holds a Zacks Rank of #3 (Hold). The Steel - Producers industry, part of the Basic Materials sector, currently ranks in the bottom 37% of all industries.
CLF · Capital · Positive Analysts raised EPS estimates for the upcoming quarter and full year, with a 28.13% upward revision in the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate over the last 30 days.
Alibaba announced plans to issue new shares to raise over $10 billion for AI infrastructure investment, sending its Hong Kong-listed shares down more than 8%. The move comes after the company reported a 75% drop in profits, with capital spending weighing on the bottom line. Separately, US steel stocks rose after trade talks between the US and Canada collapsed, paving the way for 50% tariffs on Canadian imports, with analysts saying Steel Dynamics and Nucor stand to benefit most. Wells Fargo downgraded Canada Goose to underweight, citing tariff pressure on full-year earnings and sales risk from a warmer winter.
Energy Transition & Power Demand › Grid, Transmission & Power Equipment ▲Demand
Artificial Intelligence › AI Data Center & Build-out ▲Capital
Artificial Intelligence › Foundation Models & Research Labs ▼Capital
Energy Transition & Power Demand › Nuclear Generation & Utilities Demand
9988.HK · Capital · Negative Plans $10B share sale for AI infrastructure, shares fell 8%.
GOOS · Tariff · Negative Wells Fargo downgraded Canada Goose to underweight, citing tariff pressure on full-year earnings and sales risk from a warmer winter.
NUE · Tariff · Positive US-Canada trade talks collapse, 50% tariffs on Canadian imports benefit Nucor.
STLD · Tariff · Positive US-Canada trade talks collapse, 50% tariffs on Canadian imports benefit Steel Dynamics.
CLF · Tariff · Neutral US steel stocks rise on tariff news, but Cleveland-Cliffs not specifically mentioned.
Cleveland-Cliffs Gets $500 Million DOE Support for Middletown Works Upgrade
Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. announced a $1 billion investment to modernize its Middletown Works facility in Ohio, supported by a $500 million award from the U.S. Department of Energy. Under the revised framework, Cleveland-Cliffs and the DOE will each fund $500 million of the project, which is expected to be deployed over the next four years while maintaining uninterrupted steel production. The project represents a rescoping of the company's previously planned decarbonization initiative, as Cleveland-Cliffs determined the original hydrogen-ready direct reduced iron plant was no longer commercially viable because customers were unwilling to pay a premium for lower-carbon steel. The revised plan focuses on improving the efficiency and productivity of the existing coal-fired blast furnace, including rebuilding and upgrading the main blast furnace, installing advanced material-handling infrastructure, and deploying artificial intelligence-enabled process-control technologies. The investment is expected to begin in the coming weeks, with the blast furnace rebuild targeted for completion in the first quarter of 2030, protecting approximately 2,300 jobs and supporting more than 1,500 workers at peak construction.
Cleveland-Cliffs Outlines $1b Middletown Works Modernization
Cleveland-Cliffs has drawn fresh investor attention after outlining a US$1b modernization of its Middletown Works plant, supported by a US$500m Department of Energy grant and aimed at cleaner, more efficient automotive-grade steel production. Shares recently reacted to the announcement, with a 1-day share price return of 4.93% and a 30-day share price return of 19.26%, while the year-to-date share price return is down 17.13% and the 5-year total shareholder return is down 53.75%. The most followed narrative currently values Cleveland-Cliffs at $11.65 per share, slightly above the last close of $11.27, pointing to a modest undervaluation based on detailed earnings and cash flow work discounted at 11.7%. Strategic footprint optimization, internal coke and feedstock integration, and direct moves to lower fixed costs and SG&A have already resulted in unit cost reductions, with ongoing initiatives expected to deliver further cost savings, driving enhanced free cash flow, lower leverage, and a structurally higher earnings profile through improved operating margins. Cleveland-Cliffs still faces meaningful risks if U.S. steel tariffs ease or if its blast furnace heavy footprint becomes less competitive as cleaner technologies gain traction.
Cleveland-Cliffs Stock Jumps on $1 Billion Investment
Cleveland-Cliffs shares surged 7% after the steelmaker announced a $1 billion investment in its Middletown Works facility in Ohio. The investment will be partially funded by a $500 million grant from the U.S. Department of Energy and will upgrade the blast furnace operation with advanced technology to improve efficiency and extend its longevity. The stock also rebounded along with other steel names after a tentative U.S.-Canada trade agreement reportedly reduced tariffs on certain Canadian steel and aluminum exports from 50% to 25%. Cleveland-Cliffs' $2.5 billion acquisition of Canadian steelmaker Stelco in November 2024 is expected to benefit from the lower tariffs.
US to halve tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum in tentative deal
The United States is expected to lower tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum from 50% to 25% as part of a tentative trade framework between the two countries, according to reports from Bloomberg and others. Terms could still change before any official announcement, with different rates possibly applying to some derivative products, and details remain under discussion. Steel imports from Canada could face a quota system with higher tariffs on volumes exceeding the quota, while aluminum likely would not face a quota under current considerations. President Trump said the deal would also remove Canadian tariffs on US agricultural goods. Shares of Canadian steel producer Algoma Steel closed 17% higher, while US steel and aluminum producers including Nucor, Cleveland-Cliffs, Steel Dynamics, Reliance, Commercial Metals, Century Aluminum, and Kaiser Aluminum fell between 2.6% and 7.5%; Alcoa, which produces more than 1 million metric tons of aluminum per year in Canada, closed up 3%.
Visa, Shopify, and Caterpillar emerge as the new AI trade beyond semiconductors
Investors are broadening the AI trade beyond hyperscalers and semiconductor stocks, according to a discussion featuring Robinhood CIO Stephanie Guild and Payne Capital Management President Ryan Payne. Guild noted that starting in June, her firm rotated out of semis and into companies like Shopify and Visa, which she believes will benefit from AI-driven financial infrastructure growth. Payne highlighted that many portfolios remain heavily dependent on direct AI plays, but pointed to opportunities in banks trading at a 40% discount to the S&P 500, as well as healthcare stocks like Johnson & Johnson, which rose over 50% in the past year without relying on AI. The conversation also identified industrial names such as Caterpillar, which surged roughly 80% this year after being drawn into the AI ecosystem through turbine manufacturing, and Cleveland-Cliffs as the sole producer of grain-oriented electrical steel used in grid upgrades.
Cleveland-Cliffs Stock Jumps 8.9% on Strong Guidance Despite Quarterly Loss
Cleveland-Cliffs surged 8.9% on Friday to close at $11.93, extending a two-day rally after its second-quarter 2026 earnings report, even though the company posted a GAAP net loss of $134 million. Revenue rose to $5.2 billion, up $300 million from the first quarter, but adjusted net loss was $115 million, or $0.25 per share. The market focused on the forecast, with management guiding for third-quarter adjusted EBITDA of about $575 million, the strongest in three years, and expecting further improvement in the fourth quarter. The company also flagged a reset of expiring fixed-price contracts worth an estimated $500 million a year in added EBITDA, aiming to cut leverage below 2.5 times within about a year. The broader steel sector moved only modestly, with Nucor and Steel Dynamics each adding 2.7%, underscoring that the jump was driven by Cleveland-Cliffs' own outlook rather than a rising steel-price tide.
Cleveland-Cliffs Climbs 16% on Strong Earnings and Upbeat Outlook
Cleveland-Cliffs shares surged nearly 16 percent on Thursday after the company reported a sharply narrower second-quarter loss and issued a highly optimistic outlook. The steelmaker posted a net loss attributable to shareholders of $145 million, down 70 percent from $486 million a year earlier, while revenue rose 6 percent to $5.2 billion. Chairman and CEO Lourenco Goncalves cited strong domestic demand, subdued imports, and improving conditions in Canada as key drivers, and said second-half earnings should be the strongest since 2021. The company also announced that CFO Celso Goncalves has been promoted to president and will join the board, succeeding his father, who remains chairman and CEO. Despite the upbeat results, hedge fund participation slipped, with 53 funds holding positions in the first quarter, down from 56, and combined holdings falling 34 percent to $1.19 billion.
Cleveland-Cliffs promotes CFO Celso Goncalves to President and appoints him to the Board
Cleveland-Cliffs has promoted Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer Celso Goncalves to President and Chief Financial Officer and appointed him to the Company's Board of Directors, effective immediately. Chairman and CEO Lourenco Goncalves will relinquish the title of President but continue leading the company. Celso Goncalves has served as CFO since 2021 and has been with Cleveland-Cliffs since 2016. The Board cited his role in transforming the company into North America's largest flat-rolled steel producer and enhancing financial flexibility. Lourenco Goncalves described the move as the beginning of a thoughtful leadership transition while affirming his own commitment to leading the company for years to come.
CLF · Capital · Positive Promotion of CFO to President and Board appointment signals leadership continuity and internal talent development, which is generally viewed positively by investors.
Cleveland-Cliffs Reports Second-Quarter 2026 Results with Adjusted EBITDA of $286 Million
Cleveland-Cliffs reported second-quarter 2026 revenues of $5.2 billion and an adjusted EBITDA of $286 million, a $191 million increase from the prior quarter. The company posted a GAAP net loss of $134 million, or $0.25 per diluted share, and an adjusted net loss of $0.20 per diluted share. Chairman and CEO Lourenco Goncalves stated that adjusted EBITDA tripled from the first quarter and is expected to more than double in the third quarter to approximately $575 million. Steel product sales volumes were 4.0 million net tons, with an average net selling price of $1,124 per net ton. Liquidity stood at $3.1 billion as of June 30, 2026.
Cleveland-Cliffs Trades at $9.28 Ahead of Earnings, Seen as 14.5% Undervalued
Cleveland-Cliffs heads into its July 23 earnings report with its stock trading at $9.28, which is 14.5% below a widely followed fair value estimate of $10.86. The share price has fallen 26.81% over the past 30 days and 31.76% year to date, though the one-year total shareholder return is down a milder 2.11%. Bulls view the steel producer as a beaten-down name trading below intrinsic value, while bears point to recent losses and cautious sentiment around the upcoming results. The company has been cutting unit costs through footprint optimization, internal coke and feedstock integration, and lower fixed costs and SG&A, with further savings expected to boost free cash flow and reduce leverage. Key risks include a potential easing of Section 232 steel tariffs and rising decarbonization costs tied to its blast furnace footprint.
5 Broker-Liked Stocks to Watch Amid the Middle East's Uneasy Calm
Amid renewed U.S.-Iran hostilities and heightened Ukraine-Russia tensions, market volatility is making stock selection difficult for individual investors. A Zacks Investment Research screen identifies five broker-favored stocks with strong earnings estimate revisions and attractive valuations: Par Pacific, Bassett Furniture Industries, ChargePoint Holdings, Cleveland-Cliffs, and Alaska Air Group. Par Pacific benefits from diverse crude sourcing and a favorable refining environment, while Bassett Furniture is enhancing its business model despite a weak housing market. ChargePoint is capitalizing on EV adoption and improved financial flexibility, Cleveland-Cliffs gains from acquisitions and higher steel prices, and Alaska Air sees resilient air travel demand and fleet upgrades.
Cleveland-Cliffs Stock Trends on Earnings Estimate Revisions
Cleveland-Cliffs has drawn investor attention as analysts sharply raised earnings estimates, with the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the current quarter swinging to a loss of $0.18 per share, a 64% improvement from the year-ago period and a 150% upward revision over the past 30 days. The consensus estimate for the current fiscal year stands at a loss of $0.27 per share, reflecting an 89.1% year-over-year improvement and a 47.8% increase over the past month, while the next fiscal year estimate of $0.46 per share marks a 267.3% jump from the prior year and a 53.3% upward revision. These positive revisions have earned the stock a Zacks Rank #2, or Buy, suggesting potential near-term outperformance. The company reported revenues of $4.92 billion in its most recent quarter, a 6.3% increase year over year, and beat consensus earnings estimates in each of the trailing four quarters. Despite the improving earnings outlook, Cleveland-Cliffs receives a Value Style Score of D, indicating it trades at a premium relative to its peers.
Cleveland-Cliffs wins $400M U.S. Defense electrical steel contract
Cleveland-Cliffs Steel, a unit of Cleveland-Cliffs, won a maximum $400 million contract for grain-oriented electrical steel. The five-year agreement has no option periods and a performance completion date of September 8, 2030. It supports multiple U.S. military services, including the Army, Marine Corps, Navy, Air Force, and Space Force. The contract is funded under fiscal 2025–2029 transaction funds and was awarded through the Defense Logistics Agency Contracting Services Office in Ohio.
Morgan Stanley cuts Cleveland-Cliffs to Equal-weight, sees steel rally peaking
Morgan Stanley downgraded Cleveland-Cliffs to Equal-weight from Overweight, arguing that a supply-driven rally in U.S. steel prices is nearing its peak and that much of the benefit from elevated prices is already reflected in steel equities. The brokerage raised its near-term steel price forecasts after U.S. hot-rolled coil prices climbed to about $1,140 per short ton, supported by tight domestic supply, longer mill lead times, and higher import costs linked to Middle East disruptions, but it expects additional domestic production and rising imports to eventually ease the market, leading prices lower in 2027 and 2028. Morgan Stanley increased its price target on Cleveland-Cliffs to $12.50 from $12.00 but said the stock's roughly 50% rally since early April has left a more balanced risk-reward profile, with higher steel prices supporting near-term earnings but limited upside relative to peers. The bank now forecasts average hot-rolled coil prices of $1,112 per ton in 2026, $1,012 in 2027, and $900 in 2028, compared with previous estimates that were materially lower, and expects prices to remain elevated through the second half of 2026 before moderating as supply conditions normalize. Among North American steel producers, Morgan Stanley maintained an Overweight rating only on Commercial Metals Company, citing overly discounted concerns around new rebar supply, while keeping Equal-weight ratings on Nucor and Steel Dynamics and raising their price targets to $258 and $270, respectively. The firm also lifted its earnings forecasts across the sector to reflect stronger steel pricing, while cautioning that profitability is likely near a cyclical peak and could decline after 2027 as steel prices retreat from current levels.
USA
