Steel Dynamics, Inc. is a steel producer and metal recycler in the United States, operating through four segments: Steel Operations, Metals Recycling Operations, Steel Fabrication Operations, and Aluminum Operations. The Steel Operations segment offers a range of steel products including hot rolled, cold rolled, and coated steel, beams, channel sections, reinforcing bars, and rail products, which are used in construction, automotive, manufacturing, transportation, heavy and agricultural equipment, energy, and pipe and tube markets. The Metals Recycling Operations segment processes, transports, markets, and brokers ferrous and nonferrous scrap metals. The Steel Fabrication Operations segment produces steel non-residential building components, and the Aluminum Operations segment offers recycled aluminum flat rolled products. The company also exports its products and was incorporated in 1993, headquartered in Fort Wayne, Indiana.
Steel Dynamics: Tariff Whiplash and a Strong Q3 Guide That Still Missed Estimates
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US-Canada tariff fight swings both ways The US first floated halving Canadian steel tariffs to 25%, then talks collapsed and 50% tariffs returned, helping STLD by keeping Canadian steel out. But Canada hit back on Sept 8 with its own tariffs on US steel, hurting STLD's exports there. Net effect is choppy but leans positive for US pricing.
This is the main force moving STLD this period, with both a positive and negative side.
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Q3 guidance shows a big profit jump STLD guided Q3 earnings to $5.34-$5.38 per share, far above last quarter's $3.69 and last year's $2.74. Record shipments, higher prices, lower scrap costs, and a backlog nearly 50% bigger than a year ago all point to strong demand from construction, data centers, and manufacturing.
This is the clearest new evidence of STLD's underlying business strength and future earnings power.
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Guidance still missed Wall Street's target Even though the Q3 guide was a big step up, it came in below the $5.60 analysts expected, and the stock fell about 2-3% on the news. That gap shows expectations were already high and the market was disappointed, a real counterweight to the bullish numbers.
It explains why a strong-sounding guide still pushed the stock down and balances the positive guidance point.
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Aluminum expansion keeps advancing STLD said its new Columbus, Mississippi aluminum mill is ramping up: all three cold mills are running and the first heat-treat line should ship commercial material in Q4. Aluminum earnings are expected to improve meaningfully, adding a new growth leg beyond steel.
It shows a new source of future earnings that supports the long-term investment case.
Q3 2026
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Record steel shipments and AI demand drive STLD, but aluminum losses and peak fears cap gains
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Record steel shipments and strong pricing Steel Dynamics shipped a record 3.7 million tons in Q2, with net income of $534 million and steel profit up 30% on strong pricing. This shows robust demand and pricing power.
It highlights the core operational strength that drove financial performance.
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AI data-center demand and bullish Q3 guidance AI data-center demand and a bullish Q3 earnings guide of $5.34–$5.38 per share, with backlog up about 50%, support the stock. This signals confidence in future growth.
It points to a key demand driver and management's positive outlook.
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Aluminum segment losses and impairment The aluminum segment lost $33 million and took a $16 million impairment charge, even as the Mississippi mill ramps toward commercial shipments. This drags on overall profitability.
It represents a significant financial setback and risk to earnings.
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Peak rally warning and tariff retaliation Morgan Stanley warns the steel rally is near its peak, and US-Canada tariff retaliation hurts exports. Q3 guidance missed the $5.60 consensus, sending shares down 2–3%.
It captures external risks and market reaction that capped upside.
News & notes movingSTLD
United States
Critical Materials & Supply Chain
Nucor and Steel Dynamics File to Intervene in FERC MISO Power Rules Case
Nucor and Steel Dynamics jointly filed a motion to intervene with the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission on the MISO footprint, seeking a formal voice in how electricity market rules apply within the MISO region. The filing puts power market design for large industrial users that rely heavily on MISO for long-term electricity needs in focus. Nucor, a US-based steel producer in the Metals and Mining industry with a market value of about $56.1b, said electricity rules inside the MISO footprint directly affect how its mills power energy-intensive steelmaking operations, tying the motion to core manufacturing costs. The company said the move lines up with an earnings story that leans heavily on new mills and downstream assets turning into steady cash generators, with power pricing and reliability feeding into the margin profile analysts are watching in the multi-year US$15b to US$20b capital program. The practical checkpoint is what comes out of this specific FERC proceeding, with investors watching for the next formal MISO or FERC filing that references Nucor or Steel Dynamics as intervenors and any decision laying out new tariff structures or market rules for large industrial users inside the MISO footprint.
NUE · Regulation · Neutral Nucor filed to intervene in FERC's MISO power rules case, seeking a voice in electricity market rules that affect its mills' power costs.
STLD · Regulation · Neutral Steel Dynamics jointly filed to intervene in the FERC MISO power rules case, seeking input on electricity market rules affecting its operations.
Steel Dynamics Falls on Weak Guidance, Xenon Plunges on Trial Enrollment Pause
Steel Dynamics issued weaker third-quarter earnings guidance, sending its shares down 4.1%. Xenon Pharmaceuticals announced it is temporarily pausing enrollment in its clinical studies for treatments for major and bipolar depression amid reports of side effects, and its shares plummeted 30.7%. Advanced Micro Devices rose 2.7% and Texas Instruments climbed 3.3%, both on the broader semiconductor rally.
Steel Dynamics Issues Q3 2026 Earnings Guidance of $5.34 to $5.38 Per Share
Steel Dynamics issued third quarter 2026 earnings guidance of US$5.34 to US$5.38 per diluted share on September 17, giving investors a clearer profit yardstick. The fresh guidance lands after an active stretch for the company, with the share price slipping 4.11% over the past day even as the year-to-date share price return stands at 33.62% and the 1-year total shareholder return reaches 70.94%. The most followed narrative frames Steel Dynamics as 13.5% undervalued, pegging fair value at $272.09 against a recent close of $235.26. That bullish case rests on the aluminum flat-rolled business ramping up into a persistent domestic supply deficit enhanced by high tariffs on imports, alongside continued expansion and technological enhancements in metals recycling operations integrated with both steel and aluminum production. The story could unravel if large capital projects keep weighing on free cash flow or if a downturn in construction and auto demand hits volumes.
Steel Dynamics Guides Q3 Earnings to $5.34-$5.38 Per Share
Steel Dynamics expects third-quarter 2026 earnings of $5.34-$5.38 per share, well above the $3.69 it reported in the second quarter and the $2.74 it posted in the year-ago quarter. The company said stronger steel metal margins, record shipments, higher realized selling prices and lower scrap costs are projected to drive the significant sequential improvement in steel operations profitability, with healthy order activity, solid end-market demand and low customer inventories also supporting pricing conditions. Steel fabrication earnings are expected to improve modestly on higher shipments despite narrower metal spreads, and the backlog is nearly 50% above prior-year levels and extends through the first quarter of 2027, supported by demand from commercial construction, data centers, manufacturing and healthcare. Metals recycling earnings are expected to decline sequentially on lower metal spreads and slightly weaker shipments, while aluminum earnings are expected to improve meaningfully on higher shipments as the company advances its Columbus, MS aluminum flat rolled mill, where all three cold mills are operational and the first Continuous Annealing and Solution Heat line is expected to ship commercial material in the fourth quarter. Steel Dynamics has repurchased $261 million, or just under 1% of its common stock, so far in the third quarter, and is scheduled to report third-quarter 2026 results after market close on Oct. 19, 2026.
Xenon plunges 24% on trial pause; Netflix downgraded by Wells Fargo
Xenon Pharmaceuticals plunged 24% in premarket trading after submitting a New Drug Application to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration for azetukalner as a treatment for focal seizures in epilepsy while voluntarily pausing new patient enrollment in ongoing Phase 3 trials for major depressive disorder and bipolar depression. Netflix slipped 2.1% after Wells Fargo downgraded the streaming giant to Underweight from Equal Weight and cut its price target to $57 from $80, citing weakening engagement trends. Array Technologies fell 3.1% to $4.11 after UBS downgraded the solar tracking company to Neutral from Buy and cut its price target to $5 from $10, pointing to a shift from payment-in-kind to cash payments on preferred dividend obligations that UBS estimates will total roughly $162 million in cumulative cash payments through 2030. Steel Dynamics dropped 3.4% after guiding third-quarter 2026 earnings to $5.34 to $5.38 per diluted share, below the analyst consensus of $5.60. Frontline fell 6% as the tanker company went ex-dividend for a combined payout of $3.41 per share, made up of a regular second-quarter dividend of $2.61 and a special dividend of $0.80 funded by the sale of two very large crude carriers.
ARRY · Capital · Negative UBS downgraded Array Technologies to Neutral and cut its price target to $5 from $10 on preferred dividend cash-payment concerns.
FRO · Capital · Negative Frontline fell 6% as it went ex-dividend for a combined $3.41 per share payout.
NFLX · Capital · Negative Wells Fargo downgraded Netflix to Underweight and cut its price target to $57 from $80, citing weakening engagement trends.
STLD · Capital · Negative Steel Dynamics guided Q3 2026 earnings to $5.34-$5.38 per share, below the $5.60 analyst consensus.
XENE · Regulation · Negative Xenon voluntarily paused new patient enrollment in ongoing Phase 3 trials for major depressive disorder and bipolar depression while submitting its azetukalner NDA to the FDA.
Steel Dynamics Rises 2.99% as Analysts Lift EPS Estimates Ahead of Earnings
Steel Dynamics shares closed up 2.99% at $245.35, outpacing the S&P 500's 1.14% gain. The company's upcoming quarterly results are projected to show EPS of $5.87, a 114.23% increase from the prior-year quarter, on revenue of $6.22 billion, up 28.86%. Full-year Zacks Consensus Estimates call for earnings of $18.27 per share and revenue of $23.63 billion, representing year-over-year changes of +128.66% and +30.02%, respectively. Over the past month, the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate has risen 6.95%, and Steel Dynamics currently carries a Zacks Rank of #3 (Hold). The stock trades at a Forward P/E of 13.1, a discount to its industry's average of 14.99, with a PEG ratio of 0.43.
STLD · Capital · Positive Analysts raised Steel Dynamics' EPS estimates ahead of earnings, with consensus projecting 114% YoY EPS growth and the stock trading at a discount to its industry.
Canada's Retaliatory Tariffs on U.S. Goods Take Effect
Canada's retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods took effect at 12:01 a.m. on September 8, imposing duties of 15%, 25%, and 50% on about C$27.6 billion ($20 billion) of U.S. imports, including steel, aluminum, dairy, appliances, agricultural equipment, pulp and paper, plastics, and electronics. The measures escalate an 18-month trade dispute following the collapse of negotiations between Ottawa and Washington, and come after the U.S. imposed new 50% duties on Canadian exports in August. U.S. companies to watch include Nucor, Steel Dynamics, Cleveland-Cliffs, Alcoa, Deere, Caterpillar, Whirlpool, Kraft Heinz, General Mills, Eaton, Emerson Electric, Honeywell, International Paper, Dow, LyondellBasell, General Motors, and Ford, among others. Bombardier faces added uncertainty after President Donald Trump threatened to block its aircraft from the U.S. market unless it manufactures in the U.S. The dispute could weigh on Canadian growth, exports, and business investment, with Canadian exports to the U.S. already falling 6.6% in July.
Steel Dynamics (NasdaqGS: STLD) stock rallied after a proposed 50% tariff on Canadian steel and vehicles was announced, as investors anticipated reduced competition from Canadian producers in the US market. The tariff, if implemented, could affect Steel Dynamics' competitive position and future earnings, reinforcing the trade-policy leg of its investment narrative. The company, a US-based steel producer and metal recycler with a market value of about $33.8 billion, could see benefits from tighter supply and less import pressure, which also underpins its aluminum flat-rolled expansion. However, risks remain if tariffs are relaxed or circumvented, and the impact depends on whether investors view the thesis as primarily about trade protection or underlying demand.
Alibaba announced plans to issue new shares to raise over $10 billion for AI infrastructure investment, sending its Hong Kong-listed shares down more than 8%. The move comes after the company reported a 75% drop in profits, with capital spending weighing on the bottom line. Separately, US steel stocks rose after trade talks between the US and Canada collapsed, paving the way for 50% tariffs on Canadian imports, with analysts saying Steel Dynamics and Nucor stand to benefit most. Wells Fargo downgraded Canada Goose to underweight, citing tariff pressure on full-year earnings and sales risk from a warmer winter.
Artificial Intelligence › AI Data Center & Build-out ▲Capital
Energy Transition & Power Demand › Grid, Transmission & Power Equipment ▲Demand
Artificial Intelligence › Foundation Models & Research Labs ▼Capital
Energy Transition & Power Demand › Nuclear Generation & Utilities Demand
9988.HK · Capital · Negative Plans $10B share sale for AI infrastructure, shares fell 8%.
GOOS · Tariff · Negative Wells Fargo downgraded Canada Goose to underweight, citing tariff pressure on full-year earnings and sales risk from a warmer winter.
NUE · Tariff · Positive US-Canada trade talks collapse, 50% tariffs on Canadian imports benefit Nucor.
STLD · Tariff · Positive US-Canada trade talks collapse, 50% tariffs on Canadian imports benefit Steel Dynamics.
CLF · Tariff · Neutral US steel stocks rise on tariff news, but Cleveland-Cliffs not specifically mentioned.
US to halve tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum in tentative deal
The United States is expected to lower tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum from 50% to 25% as part of a tentative trade framework between the two countries, according to reports from Bloomberg and others. Terms could still change before any official announcement, with different rates possibly applying to some derivative products, and details remain under discussion. Steel imports from Canada could face a quota system with higher tariffs on volumes exceeding the quota, while aluminum likely would not face a quota under current considerations. President Trump said the deal would also remove Canadian tariffs on US agricultural goods. Shares of Canadian steel producer Algoma Steel closed 17% higher, while US steel and aluminum producers including Nucor, Cleveland-Cliffs, Steel Dynamics, Reliance, Commercial Metals, Century Aluminum, and Kaiser Aluminum fell between 2.6% and 7.5%; Alcoa, which produces more than 1 million metric tons of aluminum per year in Canada, closed up 3%.
Steel Dynamics Appoints Theresa Wagler as President and CEO
Steel Dynamics has appointed Theresa Wagler as President and Chief Executive Officer, effective January 1, 2027. She succeeds Mark Millett, who will transition to executive chairman of the Board of Directors. The company also named Executive Vice President and Treasurer Richard Poinsatte to succeed Wagler as Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer on the same date. Shares were trading 0.90 percent higher at $260.70 in pre-market activity on the Nasdaq.
General Motors, 3M, Novartis lead premarket movers on earnings beats
Several companies made notable premarket moves following their latest earnings reports. Novartis shares jumped 4% after the Swiss pharmaceutical company posted second-quarter core earnings of $2.41 per share on revenue of $14.41 billion, both exceeding StreetAccount consensus estimates. General Motors gained more than 1% after reporting adjusted earnings of $3.57 per share on revenue of $48.03 billion, topping LSEG forecasts. 3M surged more than 5% as the conglomerate beat second-quarter expectations and raised its full-year guidance. Domino's Pizza slipped 1% after earnings of $4.07 per share missed the LSEG consensus of $4.17 per share, though revenue of $1.19 billion slightly beat estimates. Nebius Group rallied 6% after Nvidia disclosed a 9.3% stake in the AI cloud company. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing rose more than 3% on a Nikkei Asia report that it will raise chipmaking service prices by up to 10% next year. Crown Holdings climbed more than 2% after beating top- and bottom-line estimates with earnings of $2.49 per share on revenue of $3.67 billion. Steel Dynamics dipped 1% despite an earnings beat, as it recorded an additional non-cash impairment charge of $16 million. Cracker Barrel Old Country Store added more than 1% after saying it expects to achieve or exceed the high end of its fiscal 2026 revenue range and exceed its adjusted EBITDA outlook.
2330.TW · Pricing · Positive TSMC will raise chipmaking service prices by up to 10% next year.
CBRL · Capital · Positive Cracker Barrel said it expects to achieve or exceed the high end of its fiscal 2026 revenue range and exceed its adjusted EBITDA outlook.
CCK · Capital · Positive Crown Holdings beat top- and bottom-line estimates with earnings of $2.49 per share on revenue of $3.67 billion.
DPZ · Capital · Negative Domino's Pizza earnings of $4.07 per share missed the LSEG consensus of $4.17 per share.
GM · Capital · Positive General Motors reported adjusted earnings of $3.57 per share on revenue of $48.03 billion, topping LSEG forecasts.
MMM · Capital · Positive 3M beat second-quarter expectations and raised its full-year guidance.
Steel Dynamics posts record steel shipments and $534 million net income in second quarter 2026
Steel Dynamics reported second quarter 2026 net income of $534 million on record steel shipments of 3.7 million tons. Net sales reached $6.1 billion, operating income was $700 million, and adjusted EBITDA came in at $921 million. The company's steel operations generated $721 million in operating income, up 30 percent sequentially, driven by higher pricing and metal spread expansion. Aluminum operations continued to ramp up, with flat rolled sheet shipments rising to 53,000 metric tons and an operating loss of $33 million that improved 48 percent from the prior quarter. Steel Dynamics also repurchased $200 million of its common stock and maintained liquidity of $2.0 billion.
Nucor returned $1.2 billion to shareholders in 2025, nearly 70% of net earnings
Nucor Corporation returned around $1.2 billion to shareholders in 2025 through dividends and share repurchases, representing nearly 70% of net earnings. Returns to shareholders were $254 million in the first quarter of 2026, and roughly $630 million year to date through June 17, 2026. The company ended the first quarter with strong liquidity of about $3.2 billion, including cash and cash equivalents of around $2.2 billion, and generated cash from operations of $886 million. Nucor raised its quarterly dividend to 56 cents per share in December 2025, marking 53 consecutive years of increases, and remains committed to returning at least 40% of earnings to shareholders. Among peers, Steel Dynamics bought back $115 million in shares in the first quarter and raised its dividend 6% to 53 cents per share, while Commercial Metals repurchased $18.9 million in shares during its fiscal third quarter and held its dividend at 20 cents per share.
USNZY Outshines STLD as Superior Value Stock in Steel Sector
Usinas Siderurgicas de Minas Gerais SA and Steel Dynamics both hold a Zacks Rank of 2, indicating positive earnings estimate revisions, but USNZY emerges as the stronger value pick based on key valuation metrics. USNZY has a forward P/E of 5.93, a PEG ratio of 0.14, and a P/B ratio of 0.2, earning a Value grade of A. In contrast, STLD has a forward P/E of 14.63, a PEG ratio of 0.48, and a P/B ratio of 3.94, resulting in a Value grade of C. These figures suggest USNZY is the more undervalued option for value investors.
Usinas Siderurgicas de Minas Gerais S.A. (Usiminas) · Capital · Positive Highlighted as a superior value stock with low P/E, PEG, and P/B ratios, earning a Value grade of A.
STLD · Capital · Neutral Mentioned as a comparison for valuation; STLD has a higher P/E and lower Value grade, but no direct news impact.
Steel Dynamics to trade ex-dividend June 30 for $0.53 quarterly payout
Steel Dynamics will trade ex-dividend on June 30, 2026, for its quarterly dividend of $0.53 per share, payable on July 10, 2026. The dividend represents approximately 0.22% of the stock's recent price of $246.49, with an annualized yield of about 0.86%. Steel Dynamics shares have a 52-week range of $119.89 to $288.74 and last traded at $244.13.
STLD · Capital · Neutral The article reports a routine quarterly dividend ex-date and yield, which is a capital event but has no material impact on the company's value.
Steel Dynamics Issues Lower Q2 EPS Guidance of $3.51-$3.55
Steel Dynamics has issued second-quarter 2026 earnings guidance projecting diluted EPS of $3.51 to $3.55, below prior analyst expectations. The guidance comes despite record Q1 2026 steel shipments and strong reported results, shifting attention to near-term earnings momentum and testing the resilience of the company's margin expansion story. The company's longer-term narrative projects $24.8 billion in revenue and $3.2 billion in earnings by 2029, with a fair value estimate of $272.09 per share, representing an 11% upside to the current price. However, the softer outlook may reinforce concerns among cautious analysts who already assumed only about 4% annual revenue growth and $1.5 billion in 2029 earnings, questioning the durability of high utilization and aluminum spreads.
VanEck Steel ETF Hits 52-Week High on AI Infrastructure Demand
The VanEck Steel ETF reached a new 52-week high earlier this month, driven by surging demand for steel in artificial intelligence infrastructure. The fund returned an average of 47.2% annually in 2025 and attracted $81.41 million in inflows over the past year, pushing assets under management above $203 million. AI data centers require heavy structural steel for server racks, reinforced flooring, and cooling systems, with 831 data center projects under construction globally as of March 2026. Despite a 0.3% year-over-year drop in global crude steel production in May 2026 and projected excess capacity of 745 million tons by 2028, the fund's top holdings like Nucor and Steel Dynamics operate modern electric arc furnaces that can adjust output while commanding premium prices for AI-grade steel. Near-term quantitative models assign a 65% probability of SLX outperforming the broader ETF universe, though risks include easing trade tariffs or a slowdown in AI capital spending.
Morgan Stanley cuts Cleveland-Cliffs to Equal-weight, sees steel rally peaking
Morgan Stanley downgraded Cleveland-Cliffs to Equal-weight from Overweight, arguing that a supply-driven rally in U.S. steel prices is nearing its peak and that much of the benefit from elevated prices is already reflected in steel equities. The brokerage raised its near-term steel price forecasts after U.S. hot-rolled coil prices climbed to about $1,140 per short ton, supported by tight domestic supply, longer mill lead times, and higher import costs linked to Middle East disruptions, but it expects additional domestic production and rising imports to eventually ease the market, leading prices lower in 2027 and 2028. Morgan Stanley increased its price target on Cleveland-Cliffs to $12.50 from $12.00 but said the stock's roughly 50% rally since early April has left a more balanced risk-reward profile, with higher steel prices supporting near-term earnings but limited upside relative to peers. The bank now forecasts average hot-rolled coil prices of $1,112 per ton in 2026, $1,012 in 2027, and $900 in 2028, compared with previous estimates that were materially lower, and expects prices to remain elevated through the second half of 2026 before moderating as supply conditions normalize. Among North American steel producers, Morgan Stanley maintained an Overweight rating only on Commercial Metals Company, citing overly discounted concerns around new rebar supply, while keeping Equal-weight ratings on Nucor and Steel Dynamics and raising their price targets to $258 and $270, respectively. The firm also lifted its earnings forecasts across the sector to reflect stronger steel pricing, while cautioning that profitability is likely near a cyclical peak and could decline after 2027 as steel prices retreat from current levels.
Steel Dynamics slips on downside Q2 guidance while Nucor tops outlook
Steel Dynamics shares fell 2.6% after hours Wednesday after the company issued second-quarter earnings guidance that missed analyst expectations, while Nucor edged up 0.3% on an upside forecast. Steel Dynamics expects Q2 earnings of $3.51 to $3.55 per share, well below the $4.16 FactSet consensus, though above Q1 EPS of $2.78 and the prior-year Q2 EPS of $2.01. The guidance included a $16 million reduction to estimated earnings from asset writedowns tied to relocating a planned second satellite aluminum recycled slab center from Arizona to Mississippi. Nucor guided for Q2 earnings of $4.50 to $4.60 per share, above the $4.21 consensus and sharply higher than Q1 EPS of $3.23 and the year-ago Q2 EPS of $2.60, with the largest increase expected in its steel mills segment due to higher average selling prices, stable volumes, and roughly $130 million of cash refunds from prior-period raw materials procurement costs.
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