TMC the metals company Inc. is a deep-sea minerals exploration company focused on collecting, processing, and refining polymetallic nodules found on the seafloor. It primarily explores for nickel, cobalt, copper, and manganese. The company holds exploration and commercial rights in two polymetallic nodule contract areas in the Clarion Clipperton Zone of the Pacific Ocean. Its products serve the electric vehicle and energy storage markets, manganese alloy production for steel, and other applications. Founded in 2011, it is based in Vancouver, Canada.
TMC Advances U.S. Deep-Sea Mining Permits, But Remains Pre-Revenue
▲
NOAA Certification Advances U.S. Exploration License TMC's U.S. subsidiary received formal NOAA certification for its USA B exploration license covering 122,000 square kilometers. This regulatory step moves the company closer to harvesting deep-sea nodules, potentially bypassing international hurdles. For a pre-revenue firm, such progress supports the stock by raising the odds of future production.
This is a concrete regulatory milestone that directly affects TMC's path to revenue.
▲
U.S. Government Support Could Accelerate Permits The Trump administration's push for mineral self-reliance and Defense Department interest in critical minerals may lead to federal grants or fast-tracked approvals. This reduces regulatory risk and could speed up TMC's timeline, making the stock more attractive to investors betting on domestic supply.
Government backing is a key catalyst that can de-risk TMC's regulatory and funding challenges.
▼
Competition Highlights TMC's Pre-Revenue Status Analysts note that MP Materials is already profitable with an operating U.S. mine, while TMC is years away from full operations and unprofitable. This contrast may steer investors toward safer rare-earth plays, pressuring TMC's stock as it competes for capital in a high-risk sector.
Competitive positioning directly influences investor sentiment and capital flows into TMC.
▲
Retail Enthusiasm and Long-Term Demand Backdrop Retail investors are touting TMC as a breakout stock, and the IEA projects rare-earth demand to rise 50-60% by 2040. While this boosts short-term sentiment, TMC remains pre-revenue with execution risks, so the impact is speculative and may not reflect fundamentals.
Retail hype and demand trends can drive price in the near term, but the speculative nature warrants caution.
Latest
▲2▼2
TMC's regulatory path advances, but losses and analyst caution weigh
▲
Tribunal orders ISA to protect TMC subsidiaries' due process An international tribunal unanimously ordered the International Seabed Authority to respect the due process rights of TMC's subsidiaries NORI and TOML. This reduces the risk that regulatory delays or unfair treatment could block TMC's deep-sea mining plans, making the stock less risky for investors.
This is a new, concrete legal win that directly lowers regulatory risk, a key driver of TMC's value.
▲
NOAA advances TMC's mining application to certification stage NOAA moved TMC's consolidated application into the certification stage, with a licensing decision expected by early 2027. TMC and partner Allseas also signed a commercial agreement for a nodule collection system. This progress brings commercial mining closer, supporting the stock's long-term potential.
This is a new operational and regulatory milestone that moves TMC closer to actual mining, a major positive catalyst.
▼
Analyst recommends selling TMC amid regulatory uncertainty An analyst at The Motley Fool recommended selling TMC, citing the International Seabed Authority's failure to finalize exploitation regulations. While a recent tribunal order removed some uncertainty, TMC still needs formal approval for commercial extraction. This adds selling pressure and highlights the stock's high risk.
This is a new analyst sell call that directly influences investor sentiment and TMC's price.
▼
TMC reports $60.1 million Q2 net loss TMC reported a net loss of $60.1 million for Q2 2026, though narrower than last year's $74.3 million. Exploration expenses jumped to $56.1 million due to a $37.2 million Allseas settlement. The company has $98.7 million cash and no debt, but ongoing losses raise funding concerns.
This is a new financial report showing continued losses and high spending, which can pressure the stock.
Q3 2026
▲2▼2
TMC's regulatory path advances, but losses and analyst caution weigh
▲
Tribunal orders ISA to protect TMC subsidiaries' due process An international tribunal unanimously ordered the International Seabed Authority to respect the due process rights of TMC's subsidiaries NORI and TOML. This reduces the risk that regulatory delays or unfair treatment could block TMC's deep-sea mining plans, making the stock less risky for investors.
This is a new, concrete legal win that directly lowers regulatory risk, a key driver of TMC's value.
▲
NOAA advances TMC's mining application to certification stage NOAA moved TMC's consolidated application into the certification stage, with a licensing decision expected by early 2027. TMC and partner Allseas also signed a commercial agreement for a nodule collection system. This progress brings commercial mining closer, supporting the stock's long-term potential.
This is a new operational and regulatory milestone that moves TMC closer to actual mining, a major positive catalyst.
▼
Analyst recommends selling TMC amid regulatory uncertainty An analyst at The Motley Fool recommended selling TMC, citing the International Seabed Authority's failure to finalize exploitation regulations. While a recent tribunal order removed some uncertainty, TMC still needs formal approval for commercial extraction. This adds selling pressure and highlights the stock's high risk.
This is a new analyst sell call that directly influences investor sentiment and TMC's price.
▼
TMC reports $60.1 million Q2 net loss TMC reported a net loss of $60.1 million for Q2 2026, though narrower than last year's $74.3 million. Exploration expenses jumped to $56.1 million due to a $37.2 million Allseas settlement. The company has $98.7 million cash and no debt, but ongoing losses raise funding concerns.
This is a new financial report showing continued losses and high spending, which can pressure the stock.
News & notes movingTMC
United StatesGuyana
Critical Materials & Supply Chain▲2
TMC Appoints Former ExxonMobil Upstream Chief Liam Mallon to Board
The Metals Company has appointed former ExxonMobil upstream executive Liam Mallon to its board of directors as the company moves toward potential commercial seabed mining. Mallon spent 35 years with Mobil and ExxonMobil and served as President of ExxonMobil Upstream Company before retiring in 2025, overseeing a global exploration, development and production portfolio with annual capital spending of roughly $20 billion to $30 billion. His tenure included ExxonMobil's Guyana offshore development program and the company's $60-billion acquisition of Pioneer Natural Resources. At TMC, Mallon will also chair the board's Sustainability and Innovation Committee, with a remit covering offshore project economics, operational scaling and environmental management, and he replaces Brendan May, who is stepping down after two years on the board. The appointment comes as TMC seeks to shift from exploration and technology development to commercial recovery of polymetallic nodules containing nickel, copper, cobalt and manganese, pursuing U.S. authorization through the Deep Seabed Hard Mineral Resources Act, with its U.S. subsidiary seeking exploration and commercial recovery approvals from NOAA, which in August published TMC USA's consolidated application for the USA-A area and has begun environmental review of a separate exploration license application for the USA-B area.
USA Rare Earth Completes $2.8 Billion Serra Verde Acquisition
USA Rare Earth has completed its $2.8 billion acquisition of Serra Verde, a Brazil-based mining company that is the only scaled producer of the core four rare-earth elements in the Western Hemisphere. The company projects that the newly integrated Serra Verde business will achieve an annualized run rate for EBITDA between $550 million and $650 million by the end of next year, and that its combined businesses will reach approximately $1.8 billion in adjusted EBITDA in 2030, up from just $5.8 million in second-quarter revenue and a $46.3 million operating loss. The U.S. government holds a roughly 10% equity position in USA Rare Earth that could rise to as much as 16% through stock warrants, and the Department of Defense provided $750 million in direct investment in a special-purpose vehicle that also included a $500 million credit facility from a Tier-1 institutional bank and a five-year purchase agreement for rare earth valued at least $300 million. Serra Verde had already announced a 15-year offtake agreement with multiple U.S. government agencies and private companies, securing access to 100% of its Phase I production of magnetic rare earth and guaranteed pricing floors for dysprosium and terbium. By contrast, TMC The Metals Company, which extracts polymetallic nodules from the seabed, has seen its expected NOAA certification pushed out to October and no longer expects to have its permit by the first quarter of 2027, though it still aims to begin commercial vessel commissioning in next year's fourth quarter.
USAR · Capital · Positive Completed $2.8B Serra Verde acquisition with projected $550-650M EBITDA run rate and $1.8B adjusted EBITDA by 2030
TMC · Regulation · Negative NOAA certification pushed to October and permit no longer expected by Q1 2027, delaying its seabed mining plans
Serra Verde Group · Demand · Positive Serra Verde's 15-year offtake agreement with U.S. government agencies and private companies secures 100% of Phase I magnetic rare earth production with guaranteed price floors
The Metals Company Stock Soared 34% in August on Q2 Results and Stifel Buy Rating
Shares of The Metals Company rose 34% in August, rebounding from a 19.6% decline in July, as investors welcomed its second-quarter 2026 financial results and a bullish analyst initiation. On August 13, the deep-sea mining specialist reported a narrower loss of $0.14 per share, compared to $0.20 in the same period last year, while CEO Gerard Barron expressed confidence that the necessary permits from NOAA will arrive well before offshore vessel commissioning by the end of 2027. Later in the month, Stifel initiated coverage with a buy rating and a $10 price target, implying about 96% upside from the August 26 closing price of $5.01. The company continues to progress toward certifications for commercial mining of copper and nickel, and expects to award contracts for several offshore system components through the second half of 2026. Despite these developments, the stock remains a speculative investment, as profitability may still be some time away.
The Metals Company Trades at Fraction of Projected $23.6 Billion Value
The Metals Company, which explores for polymetallic nodules in the Pacific Ocean, trades at roughly 8% of its SEC-compliant net present value of $23.6 billion, based on two studies of its Clarion Clipperton Zone license areas. A world-first pre-feasibility study of one sub-section confirmed 363 million tonnes of resources with an NPV of $5.5 billion, while a less rigorous initial assessment of its other license areas found nearly 1.3 billion tonnes with an NPV of $18.1 billion. The market discounts the stock because the company is seeking a permit from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration rather than the International Seabed Authority, which could trigger international legal issues, and because it faces a potential funding gap with only $143 million in liquidity and a $20.1 million quarterly cash burn. Management believes the stock is undervalued relative to the 58% average discount for nickel developers, but the risks of legal battles and operational costs may keep the valuation discount wide.
TMC · Capital · Neutral Trades at ~8% of $23.6B NPV; management says undervalued vs 58% average discount for nickel developers, but legal and funding risks may keep the discount wide.
TMC the metals posts narrower Q2 loss, valuation narrative still bullish
TMC the metals reported second quarter 2026 results with a net loss of US$60.12 million and a basic loss per share of US$0.14, both narrower than in the same period a year earlier. The earnings release came after a sharp one-day share price return of 20.65% and a 30-day return of 30.52%, though the stock remains down 29.35% year to date. The most followed valuation narrative points to a fair value of $11.20 compared with the last close at $4.79, implying the stock is undervalued by 57.2%. That bullish case rests on a pre-feasibility study and initial assessment outlining a large resource with an estimated combined NPV of US$23.6 billion, targeted steady state revenue of about US$600 per dry ton, and an EBITDA margin per ton of roughly 43%. The story still leans on timely NOAA permitting and access to more than US$400 million of potential warrant funding.
TMC targets 3M wet tonnes/year system as NOAA timing shifts to October 2026 certification
TMC the metals company announced that NOAA certification for its USA-A application is now expected in October 2026, and it no longer believes a permit grant in the first quarter of 2027 is likely. The company is advancing its first commercial collection system with Allseas, designed for an initial operating configuration of 3 million wet tonnes of nodules per year, with fabrication expected from the fourth quarter of this year through the third quarter of 2027 and installation and commissioning targeted for the fourth quarter of 2027. TMC reported a second quarter 2026 net loss of approximately $60.1 million, or $0.14 per share, including exploration and evaluation expenses of $56.1 million, of which $34.8 million represents deferred costs payable to Allseas only upon production. Liquidity stood at $143 million at June 30, 2026, including $44 million available from the Barron and ERAS undrawn credit facility. The company is actively engaged in funding processes with multiple U.S. agencies and does not currently intend to pursue other capital market transactions until further updates are publicly released.
MP Materials and USA Rare Earth Are Buys, TMC Is a Sell, Analyst Says
An analyst at The Motley Fool recommends buying MP Materials and USA Rare Earth while selling TMC The Metals Company, citing differing risk profiles in the U.S. push for a domestic rare-earth supply chain. MP Materials operates the only commercial-scale rare-earth mine in North America and has a public-private partnership with the U.S. Department of Defense that includes a 10-year price protection agreement guaranteeing a minimum price of $110 per kilogram for its neodymium-praseodymium product, a $400 million convertible preferred stock purchase, and a commitment to buy 100% of magnet production from its planned 10X facility, locking in annual minimum EBITDA of $140 million. USA Rare Earth secured $1.6 billion in federal financing under the CHIPS and Science Act, acquired Less Common Metals and the Serra Verde Group for $2.8 billion, and is building a $1.2 billion permanent magnet facility in South Carolina. TMC faces regulatory uncertainty because the International Seabed Authority has not finalized exploitation regulations, and although a recent provisional order from the International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea removed some uncertainty, the company still needs formal approval of its commercial extraction applications.
MP · Demand · Positive Analyst recommends buying MP Materials due to DoD partnership guaranteeing minimum price and purchase commitments.
TMC · Regulation · Negative Analyst recommends selling TMC due to regulatory uncertainty from ISA not finalizing exploitation regulations.
USAR · Capital · Positive Analyst recommends buying USA Rare Earth, citing $1.6B federal financing and acquisition of Less Common Metals and Serra Verde.
Serra Verde Group · Capital · Positive Serra Verde Group was acquired by USA Rare Earth for $2.8B, but is not a public company; mentioned only as part of the acquisition.
TMC The Metals Company Advances Toward 2027 Mining Approval Despite 49% Stock Drop
TMC The Metals Company has seen its stock fall roughly 49% in 2026 even as it makes operational progress toward deep-sea mining. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration advanced the company's consolidated application into the certification stage in May, with a licensing decision expected by the end of the first quarter of 2027. TMC and partner Allseas also signed a commercial agreement to develop a nodule collection system with a production capacity of 3 million wet metric tons per annum, targeting commissioning in the fourth quarter of 2027. Analysts see potential near-term upside of 188%, though the company remains a speculative investment in a capital-intensive, cyclical industry.
International Tribunal Orders ISA to Protect Due Process Rights of TMC Subsidiaries
The International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea has unanimously ordered the International Seabed Authority to respect the due process rights of The Metals Company's subsidiaries NORI and TOML in their proceedings against the ISA. The Seabed Disputes Chamber found that NORI and TOML have plausible rights to due process and fair treatment, that there is a real and imminent risk of irreparable prejudice to those rights pending a final decision, and that provisional measures were required. The Chamber ordered the ISA to act in accordance with the applicable legal framework, provide both contractors with sufficient clarity and information regarding the procedures and questions underlying the inquiry, and respect due-process requirements in considering NORI's application to extend its exploration contract. The parties were directed to cooperate and refrain from any action that might aggravate the disputes. These are the first contentious decisions issued by the Seabed Disputes Chamber under Part XI of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea.
The Metals Company draws investor interest as it pursues deep-sea mining for critical metals
The Metals Company is attracting attention for its plan to harvest polymetallic nodules from the Pacific Ocean floor to supply nickel, copper, cobalt, and manganese amid a growing shortage of critical metals. The company holds contract areas in the Clarion-Clipperton Zone that it believes contain one of the world's largest undeveloped resources of battery and industrial metals, potentially making it the biggest global supplier of nickel and manganese if commercial operations become viable. However, the stock remains highly speculative due to regulatory hurdles, environmental concerns, and technical challenges that could prevent full-scale production. The company's business model involves using collector vehicles to gather nodules and transport them to a processing facility, with revenue generated from selling refined metals to customers.
MP Materials, USA Rare Earth, and TMC Offer Different Risk-Reward Paths in Rare-Earth Reshoring
MP Materials, USA Rare Earth, and TMC The Metals Company present distinct risk-reward profiles for investors seeking exposure to America's rare-earth metals reshoring boom. MP Materials operates a producing mine in California with processing facilities and posted an adjusted profit in the first quarter of 2026, making it the most advanced of the three. USA Rare Earth is building a mine in Texas, has processing assets in the U.S. and Europe, and recently acquired an operating mine in South America, but remains unprofitable. TMC The Metals Company plans to build an undersea mine and is still seeking regulatory approvals, representing the highest-risk, highest-potential-reward option. All three are start-up businesses that require a long-term investment horizon.
TMC Subsidiary Receives NOAA Certification for USA B Exploration License
TMC the metals company Inc. announced that its U.S. subsidiary, The Metals Company USA LLC, received formal certification from the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration for its USA B exploration license application. The application covers approximately 122,000 square kilometers of seafloor containing an estimated 1.02 billion tonnes of polymetallic nodules. The certification represents an important regulatory step toward advancing the exploration process, including future environmental review activities. NOAA's process will include preparation of an Environmental Impact Statement, public review, and a final decision regarding the license. The company highlighted that it has spent more than a decade conducting scientific research, environmental data collection, and offshore engineering studies related to polymetallic nodules and their surrounding ecosystems.
Retail Investors See The Metals Company as the Next SanDisk Stock
Retail investors on Reddit are touting The Metals Company as a potential breakout stock akin to SanDisk, arguing the deep-sea mining firm is being overlooked. The company aims to be the first to extract polymetallic nodules from the ocean floor, which contain manganese, cobalt, nickel, and copper—critical minerals the U.S. currently imports largely from Russia, China, and Indonesia. With the Trump administration pushing for mineral self-reliance, TMC has filed a consolidated permit application for 65,000 square kilometers of ocean floor and plans to produce 10.8 million tons of nodules annually, targeting a commercial recovery permit by late 2026 or early 2027 and production start in Q4 2027. The company’s territories have an estimated net present value of at least $10 billion, possibly up to $23.6 billion, while its market cap stands at $2.35 billion, though it remains pre-revenue and faces execution, regulatory, and international legal risks.
TMC · Regulation · Positive Trump administration push for mineral self-reliance and TMC's permit application progress are positive regulatory developments.
Three Rare-Earth Stocks Could Offer Big Rewards but Carry High Risk
TMC The Metals Company, USA Rare Earth, and MP Materials are pursuing rare-earth metals businesses amid high demand and supply concentration in China. The International Energy Agency expects rare-earth demand to rise 50% to 60% by 2040, driven by renewable energy, AI, and electric vehicles. TMC is attempting undersea mining but remains pre-revenue and highly speculative. USA Rare Earth has a processing business generating revenue and plans a mine by 2028, plus a Brazilian acquisition expected to close in the second half of 2026. MP Materials operates a mine and processing facilities and is generating positive adjusted earnings, making it the most advanced of the three. All three carry significant risk, with only MP Materials currently profitable on an adjusted basis.
MP · Demand · Positive Article highlights rising rare-earth demand driven by renewable energy, AI, and EVs, which benefits MP Materials as the most advanced producer with positive adjusted earnings.
USAR · Demand · Positive USA Rare Earth has a processing business and plans a mine by 2028; rising demand supports its growth prospects, though it remains early-stage.
TMC · Demand · Neutral TMC is pre-revenue and highly speculative; rising demand is a positive backdrop but the company faces high execution risk and no current revenue.
TMC The Metals Company Could Surge on Two Key Catalysts
TMC The Metals Company, a deep-sea mining firm, could see its stock surge if two catalysts materialize over the next year. The first is any tangible progress in its operations, such as securing additional government approvals or demonstrating it can extract critical-mineral-rich nodules from the ocean floor, following NOAA's recent approval for a 122,000-square-kilometer Pacific Ocean exploration zone. The second catalyst is increased U.S. government support aimed at reducing China's dominance in rare-earth and critical-mineral markets, potentially through expedited mining approvals. TMC remains a speculative, pre-revenue company with a $2.2 billion market capitalization, and its stock has fallen 47% since its 2020 IPO.
TMC The Metals Company Poised to Surge on Two Catalysts
TMC The Metals Company, a speculative pre-revenue deep-sea mining firm, could see its stock surge over the next year if two catalysts materialize. The first is any tangible progress in its deep-sea extraction efforts, such as additional regulatory approvals or demonstrating it can extract nodules from the ocean floor, building on a recent NOAA permit to explore a 122,000-square-kilometer Pacific region. The second is increased U.S. government support aimed at reducing China's dominance in critical minerals, which could expedite mining approvals for companies like TMC. The stock has fallen 47% since its 2020 IPO and is down 24% over the past year, leaving the company with a market capitalization of $2.2 billion.
TMC · Regulation · Positive Potential regulatory approvals for deep-sea mining and U.S. government support to reduce China's dominance in critical minerals.
MP Materials Is My Favorite Rare Earth Stock for the Next Decade
MP Materials stands out as the most attractive long-term investment in the rare-earth metals sector because it is the only company with both an operating mine and processing facility in the United States that is currently profitable. The company reported positive adjusted earnings of $0.03 per share in the first quarter of 2026, while peers like TMC The Metals Company and USA Rare Earth are still years away from full operations and remain unprofitable. With China dominating global supply and using rare earths as a geopolitical tool, MP Materials offers a strategic domestic alternative with a sustainable, full-featured business. Although the rare-earth industry is still developing and carries high risk, MP Materials' established profitability and integrated operations provide a compelling risk/reward balance for buy-and-hold investors.
USA
