TTW Public Company Limited

KGI Securities (Thailand) said BEM reported average daily passenger volume and electric train ticket revenue for August 2569 at 444,000 people, up 1.0% YoY and 4.2% MoM, and 13.2 million baht, up 0.1% YoY and 3.8% MoM, respectively. Meanwhile, average daily vehicle volume for expressway users and revenue stood at 1.12 million vehicles, up 0.7% YoY and 1.4% MoM, and 25.6 million baht, up 0.6% YoY and 1.9% MoM, respectively. Over the first eight months of 2569, average daily passenger volume and revenue stood at 424,500 people, up 0.8% YoY, and 12.72 million baht, up 2.2% YoY, while average daily vehicle volume and revenue stood at 1.1 million vehicles, up 0.8% YoY, and 25.2 million baht, up 0.3% YoY, respectively. It expects average daily passenger volume and revenue in the third quarter of 2569 to rise about 1-1.3% YoY and 11-12% QoQ, while average daily vehicle volume and revenue may grow 0.6-0.7% YoY and 2.5-3.5% QoQ. Normally the third quarter tends to be the year's peak quarter for results, as revenue from the expressway and rail system businesses grows in the single digits. Good cost control plus an interim dividend from TTW. Fourth-quarter 2569 profit should be slightly stronger than previously expected YoY, driven by a cost adjustment of about 100 million baht. It maintains its 2569 profit estimate at 3.9 billion baht, up 4% YoY, and its 2570 estimate at 4.0 billion baht, up 3% YoY, without yet including the opportunity for passenger volume to increase from the trial run of the Orange Line (eastern side), which will feed more passengers into the Blue Line, and the new, cheaper fare rate of 17-45 baht, which should also help improve operating efficiency. The first Orange Line train sets will gradually arrive in late 2569, and all 17 trains should be ready in late 2570 for trial runs before officially opening for commercial service in early 2571. Meanwhile, additional Blue Line train sets will gradually arrive from mid-2570 through late 2571, and the end of the Blue Line project's compensation payments in 2572 will help BEM save about 5 billion baht per year in cash flow. The official opening of the Orange Line's western side and the Purple Line's southern section will support growth in 2573. For the expressway business, full-year positive effects should be seen from the increase in tolls on the urban FES and SES routes to 60 baht in 2572 from the current 50 baht. BEM also still hopes for the 35-billion-baht elevated expressway project and the 30-billion-baht M&E contract, with the Purple Line's southern section expected to receive government approval early next year. It maintains a buy recommendation with an SOTP target price of 8.40 baht, derived from the core business at 6.30 baht using a WACC of 5.3% and terminal growth of 0%, and investments in TTW and CKP at 0.75 baht, plus the Orange Line project at 1.35 baht. The target price reflects a 2570 PE of 32-33x, minus 0.5 S.D.

CK, or Ch. Karnchang Public Company Limited, has announced success from its flexible cost management strategy, leading to growth in gross profit margin despite flat total revenue. As of the end of Q2 2026, the company had a backlog worth 140 billion baht and plans to add another 65 billion baht in new work by early 2027, including electrical and train operation works for the Purple Line, civil works for the Thai-Chinese Railway Phase 2 project, and the Suvarnabhumi Airport terminal expansion project. Meanwhile, the company also recognizes profit shares from BEM and CKP, as well as dividends from TTW, to diversify income, and has strengthened its financial position, with Net D/E decreasing to 1.0 times from 1.3 times at the end of 2025. Kasikorn Securities has raised its 2026 normal profit estimate by 28% to 2.249 billion baht and its 2027 estimate by 31% to 2.518 billion baht, while maintaining a "Buy" recommendation and increasing the target price by 5% to 29.27 baht.

TTW Public Company Limited (TTW) has announced through the Stock Exchange of Thailand that its board of directors has approved the payment of an interim cash dividend at a rate of 0.30 baht per share, paid from the operating results of the first half of 2026, covering the period from January 1 to June 30, 2026. The shares have a par value of 1 baht each. The company has set the ex-dividend (XD) date for September 9, 2026, and the record date for shareholders entitled to receive the dividend on September 10, 2026, before paying the dividend to shareholders on September 25, 2026.

Dao Securities stated that Ch. Karnchang Public Company Limited, or CK, reported second-quarter 2026 net profit of 800 million baht, down 7% from a year earlier but up 143% from the previous quarter, exceeding market and Dao forecasts by 17-18%. The result was supported by construction revenue rising 6% year-on-year, with gross margin expanding more than expected by 20 basis points from a year earlier and 70 basis points from the previous quarter, thanks to internal cost management efficiency. Other income slowed 25% year-on-year, mainly because CK Power posted foreign exchange losses, but rose 87% from the previous quarter on higher TTW dividends and a larger share of profit from BEM. Interest expenses fell more than expected as loans were gradually repaid. Dao maintained its 2026 normalized profit forecast at 2.5 billion baht, up 2% from a year earlier, and expects third-quarter 2026 normalized profit to grow both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter, driven by continued construction revenue growth, easing interest expenses, and the peak season for CK Power. Dao kept its buy recommendation and target price of 23.00 baht, based on a sum-of-the-parts valuation comprising 3.6 baht for the construction business and 19.4 baht for the combined value of its stakes in BEM, CK Power, and TTW. Although the backlog is gradually declining, it still helps secure revenue for the next three years, and there are additional catalysts from the Double Deck project worth 35 billion baht and the government's push for new projects.

Dao Securities stated that Bangkok Expressway and Metro Public Company Limited, or BEM, reported second-quarter 2569 net profit of 1 billion baht, up 2 percent from a year earlier and 16 percent from the previous quarter, close to market expectations. Supporting factors included lower interest expenses and dividends from TTW and CKP totaling 341 million baht. Revenue softened 0.4 percent from a year earlier and 7 percent from the previous quarter, in line with lower traffic volumes during the low season, while gross margin slowed because of higher amortization of rights. The broker maintained its 2569 net profit forecast at 3.9 billion baht, up 3 percent from a year earlier, and kept a buy recommendation with a target price of 9.00 baht based on a sum-of-the-parts valuation. Positive factors include progress on new projects and the common ticketing policy for electric trains, which is expected to begin in early 2570.

Analysts assess the second-quarter 2026 earnings outlook for four companies in the CH. Karnchang Group. CK is expected to post a normalised profit of 725.7 million baht, down 1% from a year earlier but up 120.5% from the previous quarter, supported by construction operating profit accelerating 11.5% year-on-year. BEM is forecast to report a normalised profit of 1.01 billion baht, up 1.5% from a year earlier and 15.2% from the previous quarter, thanks to lower financial costs. CKP is seen posting a normalised profit of 202 million baht, down 43% from a year earlier but up 74% from the previous quarter, as it enters the high season in the third quarter. Meanwhile, TTW is expected to report a net profit of 686 million baht, down 14% from a year earlier but up 2% from the previous quarter, standing out as a defensive stock with steady cash flow and high dividend payouts.

Ch. Karnchang Public Company Limited, or CK, expects normalized profit in the second quarter of 2026 to recover strongly to 703 million baht, up 113.6 percent from the previous quarter but down 18.5 percent from a year earlier. The recovery is driven by a seasonal rebound in share of profit from associates and dividend income from TTW. Construction revenue is projected at 13 billion baht, growing both quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year, supported by gradual revenue recognition from major project backlogs such as the Orange Line, the Southern Purple Line, and the Luang Prabang hydropower project. Share of profit from associates is estimated at 361 million baht, improving from the previous quarter due to BEM's performance but declining from a year ago as CKP posted a loss from foreign exchange. Gross margin is expected at 7.5 percent, stable from the prior quarter and within the 2026 target range of 7 to 8 percent. SG&A expenses are projected at 590 million baht and interest expenses at 405 million baht, both down from the previous quarter and the prior year due to gradual debt repayment. Normalized profit in the third quarter of 2026 is expected to continue growing from the second quarter, with a key boost from CKP entering the high season for hydropower plants in Laos, which should drive share of profit to its annual peak. The construction business is expected to be stable to slightly higher. At the end of the first quarter of 2026, the company had a strong backlog of 156 billion baht, supporting revenue for another three to four years, and plans to bid for and sign new projects worth over 260 billion baht in the next two years. Yuanta Securities maintains a target price of 25.90 baht and a buy recommendation, with the current share price offering an upside of as much as 42.3 percent.

Phillip Securities Thailand forecasts CK's Q2 2026 profit at 663 million baht, up 101.6% from the previous quarter, driven by a seasonal recovery in profit sharing from BEM and dividends from TTW, but down 23.1% year-on-year due to lower foreign exchange gains at CKP. Construction revenue was stable at around 12 billion baht from the prior quarter and grew from a year earlier, supported by progress on the Orange Line West rail project, the Luang Prabang power plant project, and the Den Chai–Chiang Khong double-track railway. The construction gross margin is expected at 7.5%, still within the 7-8% target range despite higher oil prices, reflecting effective cost management, while interest expenses declined due to gradual debt repayment. The profit trend has potential for continued growth into Q3 2026, following CKP's seasonal factors. Phillip Securities upgraded CK from accumulate to buy, with a target price of 21.60 baht, viewing that earnings have passed their trough and are likely to recover steadily through the rest of the year.

Dao Securities Thailand forecasts that Bangkok Expressway and Metro, or BEM, will report a net profit of 1.007 billion baht for the second quarter of 2026, up 1% from the same period last year and up 15% from the previous quarter, slightly above its preliminary estimate range of 950 million to 1 billion baht. Total revenue is expected to decline 1% year-on-year and 8% quarter-on-quarter due to a seasonal slowdown in travel and weaker commercial development income. Meanwhile, gross margin is projected to fall 0.50 percentage points from a year earlier and 2.70 percentage points from the prior quarter, reflecting higher amortization charges and seasonally softer ridership. However, earnings will be supported by dividend income from TTW and CK Power totaling about 341 million baht, and interest expenses are expected to drop 9% year-on-year and 5% quarter-on-quarter as the average interest cost on new bonds and loans declines. Dao Securities maintains its 2026 net profit forecast for BEM at 3.9 billion baht, up 3% from the previous year, and keeps a buy rating with a target price of 9 baht. Key catalysts include progress on the double-deck expressway project, which is expected to reach a conclusion in the second half of 2026, and the common ticketing policy anticipated to begin in 2027, which will help boost overall rail passenger volumes.

Dao Securities estimates BEM's net profit in the second quarter of 2026 at 1.007 billion baht, up 1% year-on-year and 15% quarter-on-quarter, slightly above the preliminary forecast range of 950 million to 1 billion baht. The result was supported by dividend income from TTW and CKP totaling 341 million baht and a 9% year-on-year decline in interest expenses, while total revenue slowed due to seasonal tourism and weaker commercial development business. The analyst maintains the full-year 2026 net profit forecast at 3.9 billion baht and keeps a buy recommendation with a target price of 9.00 baht. Key catalysts include the progress of the double-deck expressway project and the joint-ticket policy in early 2027, which will boost overall rail passenger volumes.

TTB Wealth Securities maintains a Buy rating on Ch. Karnchang Public Company Limited, or CK, but lowers its target price to 22.50 baht from 23.00 baht after trimming the sum-of-the-parts valuation of its investment in CKP. This reduces CK’s earnings estimates for 2026–2028 by 1–4 percent. However, the firm still views CK as one of the key beneficiaries of Thailand’s new infrastructure investment cycle, with earnings expected to grow at an average of 9 percent per year during 2027–2029 and upside of 20.3 percent from the target price. The research team notes that although earnings estimates have been cut due to the impact on CKP, in which CK holds a 30 percent stake, the fundamentals of the construction business remain strong, supported by a backlog of 157 billion baht at the end of the first quarter of 2026, equivalent to about 3.4 times 2026 revenue. This is coupled with opportunities to win new work from the double-deck expressway project worth 35 billion baht and the southern Purple Line rail system worth 27 billion baht, as well as dividend income and profit sharing from CKP, BEM, and TTW of around 2.7 to 2.9 billion baht per year. The company expects to maintain a gross margin of 8.3 percent through advance procurement of construction materials. In addition, TTB Wealth sees CK as one of the biggest beneficiaries from the bidding for government infrastructure projects during 2026–2028, with a combined value of approximately 775 billion baht, covering highways, double-track railways, high-speed rail, and airports. Although some projects may be delayed by government processes, bidding is still expected to begin gradually from late 2026 onwards. For near-term performance, the research team expects CK to post a net profit of 843 million baht in the second quarter of 2026, down 2 percent year-on-year but up 156 percent quarter-on-quarter. The sequential growth is driven by higher dividend income from TTW and increased profit sharing from associates, while the construction margin is expected to remain stable from the previous year. TTB Wealth forecasts CK’s revenue at 45.823 billion baht and net profit at 2.606 billion baht in 2026, rising to 2.738 billion baht in 2027 and 2.973 billion baht in 2028, reflecting the gradual recognition of revenue from the backlog and new projects expected in the coming years.

SBI Thai Online Securities stated that Ch. Karnchang Public Company Limited, or CK, is likely to see earnings growth in the second quarter of 2026, both quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year. Construction revenue remains at a high level from the gradual recognition of its backlog, with key projects including the MRT Orange Line West, the Luang Prabang hydropower plant, and the Den Chai–Chiang Rai–Chiang Khong double-track railway. Meanwhile, gross margin is expected to stay within the 7.5 to 7.7 percent range. Share of profit and dividends from associates are also growing, with BEM supported by rising passenger numbers and expressway usage driven by economic activity and tourism. CK Power is expected to see a profit recovery from the first quarter as it enters the high season for hydropower plants, and TTW will begin booking dividend income to provide additional support. The research team forecasts full-year 2026 total revenue at 80 billion baht, up 5 percent from the previous year, and net profit of 2.1 billion baht, up about 4 percent year-on-year. The average target price stands at 23 baht.