Defense Stocks Slide as Iran Offers to Reopen Strait of Hormuz

The FY2026 defense appropriations agreement includes more than $6.3 billion for 13 critical munitions and grants conditional multiyear procurement authority for eight of those programs, a tailwind for RTX Corp. as it scales production of AMRAAM air-to-air missiles, Standard Missiles and Tomahawk cruise missiles. RTX's order backlog reached a record $289 billion by the end of second quarter fiscal 2026. The company will spend $25 million to expand its Niepołomice site in Poland, which delivers tubular assemblies for commercial and military engines, following a $100 million capital outlay announced in April for its Rzeszów facility. RTX closed at $185.01 on October 1 with a market capitalization of about $249.3 billion, trading at a trailing P/E of 33.62x and a forward P/E of 24.57. Hedge fund ownership slipped from 95 funds in Q1 2026 to 92 funds in the following quarter, while BlackRock remains the largest institutional stakeholder with 110.53 million shares, or 8.20% ownership.

L3Harris Technologies has secured an undefinitized contract from Lockheed Martin worth more than US$6b over seven years to expand propulsion output for the THAAD missile defense system. The arrangement follows a prior framework with the Department of War to quadruple THAAD propulsion production and includes both a new Solid Rocket Boost Motor facility and added Liquid Divert and Attitude Control capacity. The contract lands as L3Harris shares have fallen about 9% over the past month and 22% year to date on a share price basis, though the 3 year total shareholder return is up roughly 53%. The company closed at $236.60, while the most followed narrative estimates fair value at about $342 per share using an 8.4% discount rate, framing the win as one more contract feeding into a broader backlog and earnings story. The story could break if U.S. budget pressure trims space spending or if prime contractor delays slow conversion of the reported US$42b backlog.

Boeing has been awarded the U.S. Navy's F/A-XX sixth-generation fighter contract, a multi billion dollar program. The F/A-XX is planned to replace the Navy's current F/A-18 Super Hornet fleet and extend carrier air wing reach. The award follows Boeing's earlier win on the U.S. Air Force's F-47 next generation fighter, consolidating its role in future combat aircraft. The win strengthens the part of the Boeing thesis that leans on advanced technology and a diversified backlog across commercial jets and defense, helping offset some reliance on the loss making commercial division by anchoring long duration military work alongside programs like the F-47 and P 8A. The award also magnifies concerns analysts already highlight around execution risk, supply chain complexity and high debt, since another classified, multi billion dollar fighter program increases capital and delivery commitments.