Genius Sports Ltd

Genius Sports Limited said Brazil's new Provisional Measure prohibiting fixed-odds betting and online gaming will have minimal impact on its business, and reaffirmed its full-year 2026 guidance. The company said that given the structure of its commercial agreements, it has minimal attributable betting revenue from Brazil, and the financial impact is anticipated to be similarly immaterial to Legend. Genius Sports reiterated full-year 2026 guidance of $1.005B to $1.025B in Group Revenue and $285M to $295M in Group Adjusted EBITDA, saying its expectations remain unchanged. The company said its partnerships with Brazilian sports remain unaffected, with its relationship with the Brazilian Football Confederation centered on GeniusIQ, which powers semi-automated offside technology and other products delivered directly to teams, leagues and federations independent of betting. Co-Founder and CEO Mark Locke said Genius Sports has been skeptical about how long it would take to generate meaningful betting revenue in Brazil and has been fairly conservative in how it thinks about the market, adding that Brazil remains a valued market and work with CBF through GeniusIQ and officiating technology will continue as before.

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Genius Sports Limited launched Prediction.com, a new consumer platform for discovering prediction markets and comparing equivalent event contracts across multiple venues. The platform was launched through Legend, Genius Sports' consumer media and technology business, whose operations include a portfolio of leading sports brands reaching millions of fans. Prediction.com combines Genius Sports' live game data with real-time prediction market pricing, letting fans follow play-by-play action alongside changing probabilities, prices and market signals. It also brings comparison to the fast-growing multi-leg segment through a proprietary cross-venue, multi-leg pricing engine. Genius Sports already provides official sports data and integrity services to leading prediction market platforms, and the company said Prediction.com will continue to expand its coverage, functionality and partner integrations as the global prediction market ecosystem develops.

Genius Sports has announced a partnership with Kalshi to provide the next-generation financial exchange with official data, marketing, media and integrity services. Kalshi is the world's next-generation financial exchange, and as the first regulated exchange for events, Kalshi is credited with legalizing and establishing prediction markets as a financial asset class. The agreement will supply Kalshi with real-time official data across Genius Sports' full soccer portfolio, including the English Premier League, Serie A, Liga MX, Argentine Primera División and French Ligue 1. The partnership aims to enhance transparency by using verified official data to settle sports prediction market contracts, while Kalshi will participate in information-sharing processes to safeguard sports integrity. Genius Sports will also support Kalshi's audience growth through marketing services, including its Legend-owned media properties.

Deutsche Bank resumed coverage of Genius Sports Limited with a Buy rating and a $10 price target on May 11, following the company's fiscal first-quarter earnings report. The firm cited numerous ways to win in the legacy sports betting business-to-business segment as a driver of future growth. Separately, Oppenheimer lowered its price target on the stock to $9 from $11 on May 8 while maintaining an Outperform rating, noting a solid first-quarter revenue and EBITDA beat driven by accelerating betting services revenue. The company incorporated Legend Revenue and EBITDA of $185 million and $90 million into full-year guidance, now set at $990 million to $1.01 billion for revenue and $270 million to $280 million for EBITDA. Oppenheimer also sees catalysts building into the World Cup and NFL kickoff, with potential for Street estimates to raise back-half media revenue.