Arm CEO Says AI Could Cure Cancer, But Chip Shortage Holds It Back

Goldman Sachs expects the S&P 500 to deliver another strong earnings season, with artificial intelligence investment driving an increasingly large share of corporate profit growth, according to an Oct. 2 report led by strategist Ben Snider. Consensus forecasts call for S&P 500 earnings per share to rise 27% from a year earlier in the third quarter, a slowdown from the 33% growth recorded in the second quarter after excluding accounting distortions, and Goldman expects most companies to beat consensus estimates again. The headline growth rate masks an unusually concentrated picture: information technology and energy are expected to generate nearly 80% of the index's earnings growth, AI infrastructure companies alone are expected to account for more than half of S&P 500 EPS growth, and the 10 biggest contributors are forecast to generate 68% of that growth, with Micron Technology and Nvidia together accounting for more than one-third. Micron has already reported, posting year-over-year earnings growth of 1,003% and beating consensus estimates. For the median S&P 500 company the outlook is considerably less spectacular, with consensus forecasts calling for EPS growth of 9%, down from 14% in the second quarter, revenue growth slowing to 6% from 7%, and a third-quarter net margin of 14.7% versus 15.1% in the previous quarter. The coming reports could also test whether enormous AI investments are translating into revenue, with consensus forecasts calling for hyperscaler capital spending to jump 116% from a year earlier in the third quarter, accelerating from 87% growth in the second, and Goldman expecting hyperscaler capex to grow more than 50% in 2027 and exceed the roughly $1.1 trillion currently embedded in consensus forecasts. Goldman forecasts S&P 500 EPS of $375 for 2026, up 36% from 2025, followed by $415 in 2027, with a year-end 2026 S&P 500 target of 8,000 and a 12-month target of 8,700.