BBGI jumps 5% after broker lifts target on Q2 profit beat from SAF business

Several brokers issued positive research on shares of Bangchak Corporation Public Company Limited, or BCP, after its sustainable aviation fuel, or SAF, project began commercial production last May. Land and Houses Securities estimates the SAF project generates EBITDA of as much as 1 billion baht on high SAF price spreads, and expects the SAF project together with Chevron Hong Kong to support a first full quarter of profit in the third quarter of 2026 and a full year next year, while maintaining a buy rating with a target price of 56 baht. Asia Plus Securities said that in the second quarter of 2026 the SAF business generated EBITDA of about 1 billion baht, roughly 3.9% of total EBITDA, and expects SAF sales volumes to rise in the third quarter of 2026 as the plant runs for a full quarter, assigning a fundamental value of 58 baht and recommending trading gains at 58 baht. InnovestX maintained an OUTPERFORM rating with a mid-2027 target price of 75 baht after taking analysts to visit the new commercial SAF production unit next to the Phra Khanong refinery, which began commercial operations in May 2026. The research team views global SAF demand as likely to rise in line with carbon reduction measures in the aviation industry, especially in Europe, while intensifying competition for used cooking oil is keeping raw material costs and business margins volatile.

Prime Minister and Interior Minister Anutin Charnvirakul held talks with Wouter van Wersch, Executive Vice President for International Affairs at Airbus, and Bert Porteman, a representative of Airbus Thailand, on ways to upgrade and expand cooperation between Thailand and Airbus in the aviation industry, space technology, human resource development, and clean energy. The Prime Minister affirmed the policy of promoting the aviation industry and future industries, and asked Airbus to consider broadening cooperation to cover more areas by building on the cooperation models the company has with other countries and extending them to Thailand. On clean energy, the Prime Minister proposed that Airbus promote the use of sustainable aviation fuel, or SAF, produced in Thailand, using Thai raw materials and agricultural output as part of the production chain. In addition, Airbus plans to establish a Center of Excellence in Thailand as a hub for developing knowledge, technology, and personnel, linking Airbus's global network to Thailand. The Prime Minister also proposed expanding cooperation in space technology and security, building on existing cooperation with the Geo-Informatics and Space Technology Development Agency, or GISTDA, and Thaicom Public Company Limited, as well as discussing cooperation with Thai Airways International Public Company Limited to support the goal of pushing Thailand to become the region's aviation hub.

Analysts at InnovestX Securities estimate that the sustainable aviation fuel business, or SAF, will be an additional profit driver for BCP. In the second quarter of 2026, the SAF business generated EBITDA of about 1 billion baht, despite operating for less than 40 days, or 3.8% of the group's total EBITDA. SAF EBITDA is expected to rise to 2.5-2.7 billion baht in the third quarter of 2026, driven by full-quarter recognition of operating results and a healthy SAF-UCO price spread. For the full year 2026, SAF EBITDA is expected to exceed 6.2 billion baht, or about 5% of forecast EBITDA, and to increase to 8 billion baht in 2027, or about 10%, under the assumption of a SAF-UCO price spread of 1,250 dollars per tonne. The brokerage maintains its OUTPERFORM recommendation with a mid-2027 target price of 75 baht.