Canada cannot fully supply U.S. aluminium needs, Morgan Stanley says

Mexican Economy Minister Marcelo Ebrard said Mexico is pressing the United States to reduce import tariffs on steel, aluminum and automobiles, as trade negotiations between the two countries continue. Ebrard said that although trade relations between the two countries have made progress and he has spoken with US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer almost daily, talks to lower the tariffs the US collects under Section 232 of the US Trade Expansion Act have not yet reached a conclusion. Currently, the US imposes a 25% tariff on imports of passenger cars and light trucks, with qualifying vehicles from Mexico taxed only on the value of parts produced outside the United States. As for the 50% tariffs on steel and aluminum from Mexico set by the government of President Donald Trump, the two countries are negotiating to reduce or eliminate them. Ebrard said Mexico must also monitor additional trade measures from the US government, especially those related to the problem of excess capacity, and noted that the Section 301 tariff issue stemming from excess capacity was not raised at Thursday's meeting between the two countries, with Mexico awaiting a decision from the United States. Ebrard stressed that preserving Mexico's standing in the US market remains the top priority, with official data showing that the United States was the destination for about 85% of Mexico's non-oil exports in the first eight months of this year.

BofA Securities raised its long-term copper price forecast by 20% to $12,000 per ton for 2026 and updated its mining sector rankings, upgrading BHP to Buy with a price objective of A$68 and naming the world's largest copper producer its top pick among large-cap mining stocks. Glencore was rated Buy with a price objective of GBp650, with BofA highlighting its copper growth options and monitoring a potential Australian listing for the diversified miner. Norsk Hydro received a Buy rating with a price objective of NOK98, which BofA described as offering interesting risk-reward characteristics for the pure-play aluminum company. Antofagasta maintained its Buy rating with a price objective of GBp4700, with the bank noting roughly 30% volume growth potential. BofA also trimmed its 2027 aluminum forecast by 5% to $3,625 per ton, and cautioned that investors should be prepared for potential drawdowns of 10% to 20%, noting that during China's super cycle from 2002 to 2008 markets experienced multiple corrections despite overall upward trends.