Upstart Holdings, Inc. operates a cloud-based artificial intelligence (AI) lending platform in the United States through its subsidiaries. The company reports in three segments: Personal Lending, Auto Lending, and Other. Its platform covers unsecured personal loans, small dollar loans, auto refinance, auto retail loans, auto secured personal loans, and home equity lines of credit. Founded in 2012, Upstart Holdings, Inc. is headquartered in San Mateo, California.
Upstart's Q2 beat and bank charter offset rate and margin worries
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Q2 earnings beat and return to profitability Upstart's second-quarter revenue rose 42% to $364.7 million, beating estimates, with loan originations up 50% to $4.2 billion and net income jumping 195% to $16.5 million. This return to profitability shows the core business is growing strongly, which pushes the stock up.
This is the main new positive event that directly lifted the stock and answers what is driving it now.
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National bank charter approval Upstart received approval for a national bank charter and plans to launch its bank in early 2027. This should lower lending costs by cutting fees paid to third-party banks, improving future profits and making its loans more competitive, which supports the stock price.
This is a new regulatory milestone that changes Upstart's cost structure and future profitability.
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High interest rates threaten lending model The Fed has held rates at 3.50%-3.75% through 2026 and inflation hit a three-year high in May, so analysts now expect rate hikes instead of cuts. Upstart's business relies on rate cuts to grow loan demand, so this is a major headwind that could stall its recovery and push the stock down.
This is the biggest external risk that could reverse Upstart's growth and explains why the stock is still volatile.
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CEO departure and margin concerns linger Upstart's stock fell 19% in the first half of 2026 amid declining take rates and the surprise resignation of CEO Dave Girouard, who was replaced by co-founder Paul Gu. While Q2 results were strong, these concerns still weigh on investor confidence and cap gains.
This explains the negative backdrop that partially offsets the recent positive earnings and bank charter news.
Q3 2026
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Upstart's Q2 beat and bank charter offset rate and margin worries
▲
Q2 earnings beat and return to profitability Upstart's second-quarter revenue rose 42% to $364.7 million, beating estimates, with loan originations up 50% to $4.2 billion and net income jumping 195% to $16.5 million. This return to profitability shows the core business is growing strongly, which pushes the stock up.
This is the main new positive event that directly lifted the stock and answers what is driving it now.
▲
National bank charter approval Upstart received approval for a national bank charter and plans to launch its bank in early 2027. This should lower lending costs by cutting fees paid to third-party banks, improving future profits and making its loans more competitive, which supports the stock price.
This is a new regulatory milestone that changes Upstart's cost structure and future profitability.
▼
High interest rates threaten lending model The Fed has held rates at 3.50%-3.75% through 2026 and inflation hit a three-year high in May, so analysts now expect rate hikes instead of cuts. Upstart's business relies on rate cuts to grow loan demand, so this is a major headwind that could stall its recovery and push the stock down.
This is the biggest external risk that could reverse Upstart's growth and explains why the stock is still volatile.
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CEO departure and margin concerns linger Upstart's stock fell 19% in the first half of 2026 amid declining take rates and the surprise resignation of CEO Dave Girouard, who was replaced by co-founder Paul Gu. While Q2 results were strong, these concerns still weigh on investor confidence and cap gains.
This explains the negative backdrop that partially offsets the recent positive earnings and bank charter news.
News & notes movingUPST
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KBRA Assigns Preliminary Ratings to $400 Million Upstart Securitization Trust 2026-4
KBRA has assigned preliminary ratings to five classes of notes issued by Upstart Securitization Trust 2026-4, a $400.0 million consumer loan ABS securitization collateralized by unsecured consumer loans and auto secured personal loans. The deal is the 52nd ABS securitization collateralized by loans originated through the online platform operated by Upstart Network, Inc., a wholly owned subsidiary of Upstart Holdings, Inc. The preliminary ratings reflect initial credit enhancement levels of 65.30% for the Class A-1 and Class A-2 notes, 51.60% for the Class B notes, 41.15% for the Class C notes and 20.50% for the Class D notes, consisting of overcollateralization, excess spread, a non-declining cash reserve account and subordination, except for the Class D notes. As of the August 10, 2026 statistical cutoff date, the collateral pool will include approximately $500.0 million of loans, with auto secured personal loans comprising approximately 5.0% of the pool. KBRA applied its Consumer Loan ABS Global Rating Methodology and its Global Structured Finance Counterparty Methodology, and considered its operational reviews of Upstart and periodic update calls with the company; operative agreements and legal opinions will be reviewed prior to closing.
UPST · Capital · Positive KBRA assigned preliminary ratings to Upstart's 52nd ABS securitization, a $400M deal collateralized by loans originated on its platform, supporting its funding capacity.
Upstart Expands Commonwealth Credit Union Partnership Into HELOCs and Auto Lending
Upstart has expanded its partnership with Commonwealth Credit Union to add home equity lines of credit and indirect auto lending, extending a relationship that began in 2022 with personal lending. The Kentucky-headquartered credit union serves more than 140,000 members, and Commonwealth said the move will help it serve members across more borrowing needs, diversify its consumer lending portfolio and deepen relationships with prime borrowers. The expansion comes as Upstart's secured business scales quickly: in the second quarter of 2026, secured originations reached $589 million, rising 218% year over year and 45% sequentially, with auto originations growing about fourfold year over year and home originations roughly doubling. Upstart's broader business also showed stronger momentum in the second quarter of 2026, with total originations of $4.2 billion, up 50% year over year, revenues up 42% to $365 million, net income of $16.5 million and adjusted EBITDA of $76.9 million. More than 100 banks and credit unions already use Upstart's marketplace, and broader adoption of HELOC and auto lending across partners could help diversify its originations mix and underpin continued growth in secured lending.
Digital Finance & Tokenization › Digital Lending & Alt-Credit Platforms ▲Demand
UPST · Demand · Positive Commonwealth Credit Union expanded its Upstart partnership into HELOCs and indirect auto lending, adding new product demand through Upstart's marketplace.
Commonwealth Credit Union · Demand · Positive Commonwealth Credit Union will use Upstart to offer HELOC and indirect auto lending, diversifying its consumer lending portfolio and serving more member borrowing needs.
SoFi's Bank Charter Fuels Deposit Growth as Upstart and Affirm Seek Approval
SoFi Technologies is the only one of the three major fintech lenders — SoFi, Upstart, and Affirm — that currently holds a full bank charter, giving it an internal deposit base to fund loans while its rivals still rely on third-party bank partners. SoFi obtained its charter on Jan. 18, 2022, by acquiring the small California bank Golden Pacific and applying through it, and has since grown deposits from $1.2 billion in first-quarter 2022 to $45.5 billion in second-quarter 2026, with members rising from 3.9 million to 15.8 million and products from 5.9 million to 24.4 million over the same period. The company swung from a net loss of $110 million, or -$0.14 per share, four years ago to net income of $156 million, or $0.12 per share, in Q2 2026. Upstart received conditional approval for a national bank charter in July and is expected to get final approval in early 2027, while buy now, pay later provider Affirm applied for an industrial loan bank charter in January and has not yet been granted any approvals. SoFi stock is down about 36% year to date and trades at 34 times earnings and 21 times forward earnings, after returns of 116% in 2023, 54% in 2024, and 70% in 2025.
Digital Finance & Tokenization › Digital Lending & Alt-Credit Platforms Competition
Digital Finance & Tokenization › Digital Banking & Neobanks ▲Capital
SOFI · Regulation · Positive SoFi is the only one of the three fintech lenders holding a full bank charter, giving it an internal deposit base that grew from $1.2B to $45.5B and helped it swing to net income.
AFRM · Regulation · Neutral Affirm applied for an industrial loan bank charter in January but has not yet been granted any approvals, leaving it reliant on third-party bank partners.
UPST · Regulation · Neutral Upstart received conditional approval for a national bank charter in July and expects final approval in early 2027, still relying on third-party bank partners.
Upstart CEO Paul Gu Buys 50,000 Shares as Loop Capital Starts Coverage at Hold
Upstart Holdings CEO Paul Gu purchased 50,000 shares of the company's stock on Thursday at an average price of $25.55 per share, a total value of approximately $1.28 million. The insider buy capped a busy week for the lender, which also drew fresh analyst attention and conference commentary. On Wednesday, Loop Capital initiated coverage on Upstart with a Hold rating and a $34 price target. Speaking Tuesday at the Goldman Sachs Communacopia and Technology Conference, Gu said the business is increasingly shaped by a sharper focus on core personal loans, even as a weaker consumer backdrop and higher operating costs weigh on near-term results. Gu also addressed Upstart's bank charter plan, calling it the largest discrete single project the company has undertaken in 2026, and said the investment currently functions as a cost center with no benefit this year but is expected to pay off once the bank launches in early 2027. Upstart shares fell 3.6% to $27.04 that day, near the lower end of their 52-week range.
UPST · Capital · Positive CEO Paul Gu bought 50,000 shares (~$1.28M) and Loop Capital initiated coverage with a Hold rating and $34 price target.
Loop Capital Markets · Capital · Neutral Loop Capital initiated coverage on Upstart with a Hold rating and $34 price target; the article gives no impact on Loop Capital itself.
Upstart Shares Down 6.7% Since Q2 Earnings, Outlook Mixed
Upstart Holdings, Inc. shares have fallen 6.7% since its second-quarter 2026 earnings report about a month ago, underperforming the S&P 500. In the quarter, Upstart reported revenues of $364.7 million, up 42% year over year, and earnings per share of 16 cents, up 220% from 5 cents a year earlier. Fee revenues rose 45% to $348 million, with platform and referral fees contributing $284.1 million, servicing and other fees $54.8 million, and loan sales fees $9.1 million. GAAP net income was $16.5 million, up 195%, and adjusted EBITDA reached $76.9 million, up 45%, with a 21% margin. Originations climbed 50% to $4.2 billion, including $3.64 billion from unsecured lending and $589 million from secured products, where auto originations surged 264% and home products rose 139%. Management maintained full-year 2026 guidance for revenues of approximately $1.4 billion, fee revenues of about $1.3 billion, and adjusted EBITDA of $294 million, and noted receipt of conditional approval for a national bank charter with a targeted launch in early 2027. Since the report, consensus estimates have shifted downward by 20.69%, and Upstart carries a Zacks Rank of 4, or Sell, with a VGM score of D.
Upstart CEO Outlines AI Lending Growth Push, Targets Profitable Home and Auto Expansion
Upstart CEO Paul Gu said the company is entering a second leg of development focused on converting its AI lending platform into sustained profitable growth while expanding into secured credit products. Speaking at Bank of America's SMID Cap Executive Insights event, Gu said personal-loan originations rose 23% sequentially in the second quarter, representing about $760 million in growth, with most of that funded by third-party capital. He said the company's newer home and auto lending businesses improved their contribution margins by 61 percentage points in the second quarter and are expected to reach contribution profitability by year-end. Gu said macroeconomic pressure tied to higher expected defaults offset operational improvements, leading Upstart to maintain full-year guidance, and that management expects to launch Upstart Bank early next year.
Upstart's AI Automates 91% of Loans, Boosts Q2 Profit
Upstart reported strong second-quarter results, with 91% of its loan originations fully automated by AI. Revenue rose 42% year over year to $365 million, and net income jumped 195% to $16.5 million, marking a return to profitability. The company originated $4.2 billion in loans, up 50% from a year earlier, and generated a record $193 million in contribution profit with a 55% contribution margin. Upstart also received approval for a national bank charter and expects to launch its bank in early 2027, which should lower lending costs by eliminating fees paid to third-party banks. For the full year, Upstart anticipates $1.4 billion in revenue and adjusted EBITDA of $294 million.
Upstart shares rise after second-quarter earnings beat estimates
Upstart shares climbed after the AI-driven loan origination platform reported better-than-expected second-quarter results. Revenue rose 42% to $364.7 million, topping the $351.5 million consensus, while fee revenue increased 45% to $348 million. Originations grew 50% to $4.2 billion, and GAAP earnings per share improved to $0.16 from $0.05 a year earlier. The company maintained full-year guidance of $1.4 billion in revenue and $294 million in adjusted EBITDA, which may have limited the stock's gains.
Upstart Stock Falls 19% in First Half of 2026 Amid CEO Departure and Margin Concerns
Upstart shares dropped 19% in the first half of 2026 as the fintech company faced investor worries over declining take rates and the surprise resignation of CEO Dave Girouard. The stock fell sharply through the first quarter before recovering some losses in the second quarter, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence. In February, Upstart announced that co-founder Girouard would step down and be replaced by co-founder and then-CTO Paul Gu, while also reporting fourth-quarter revenue of $296.1 million, up 35% year over year, but guiding for a slight decline in full-year adjusted EBITDA margin from 22% to 21%. First-quarter results in May showed adjusted EBITDA margin dropping from 20% to 13% and a widening net loss, though the company maintained its full-year guidance and Gu purchased 50,000 shares. Management also issued long-term targets through 2028, calling for roughly 35% compound annual revenue growth and a 28% adjusted EBITDA margin.
Upstart Stock Analysis: Buy or Sell This AI Stock?
Parkev Tatevosian, CFA, analyzes whether Upstart stock is a buy or sell, noting the AI platform has proven its business model can be lucrative. The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team recently identified their 10 best stocks to buy now, and Upstart was not among them. The service highlights historical examples such as Netflix and Nvidia, which returned $418,761 and $1,195,804 respectively on a $1,000 investment at the time of recommendation. Stock Advisor’s total average return is 918%, compared to 208% for the S&P 500. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Upstart.
UPST · Capital · Neutral Article is an analyst opinion piece on whether to buy or sell Upstart, with no new substantive news; the analysis is not a definitive rating change.
Upstart Stock Outlook Hinges on Funding, AI and Product Mix
Upstart Holdings' outlook depends on committed funding, AI-driven automation, and expansion into newer loan products beyond core personal lending. In 2025, institutional investors bought about 64% of loan principal, lending partners 26%, and Upstart held roughly 10% on its balance sheet, with more than half of funding now supported by committed capital and co-investment arrangements. Automation reached 91% of loans in the first quarter of 2026, and management cited about 3.5% more originations at equivalent risk after expanding AI to predict post-default recoveries. Auto originations rose more than 300% year over year and Home originations increased about 250% in the same period, though contribution margin fell to 50% from 55% a year earlier due to mix shift and investments. The stock carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) with weak Style Scores, suggesting caution until margins and product execution catch up with loan growth.
UPST · Capital · Neutral Article discusses Upstart's funding, AI automation, product mix, and margin decline; overall outlook is mixed with growth but falling margins.
StockStory Picks Upstart as Top Stock Under $50, Flags Wix and CoStar as Sells
StockStory highlights Upstart as a stock under $50 with strong potential, while recommending investors avoid Wix and CoStar. Upstart, trading at $35.60, saw loan originations grow 56.6% over the last year and is projected to achieve positive free cash flow next year. Wix, at $48.87, faces weak billings growth of 13.8% and a declining operating margin. CoStar, at $29.46, has experienced shrinking free cash flow margins and declining earnings per share despite revenue growth.
CSGP · Capital · Negative StockStory recommends selling CoStar due to shrinking free cash flow margins and declining EPS.
UPST · Capital · Positive StockStory highlights Upstart as a top stock under $50 with strong loan origination growth and projected positive free cash flow.
Upstart edges out Futu as the better fintech stock amid regulatory cloud
Upstart Holdings currently offers a more attractive risk-reward profile than Futu Holdings, according to a Zacks Investment Research analysis. Futu's first-quarter funded accounts rose 34.3% to 3.59 million and client assets climbed 47.2% to HK$1.22 trillion, but reported net income fell 61.2% year over year to HK$831 million after a roughly RMB1.85 billion penalty from the China Securities Regulatory Commission. Upstart's originations grew 61% to $3.4 billion and revenue rose 44% to $308 million, with auto originations up more than 300% and home originations up around 250%. Consensus estimates project Upstart's 2026 sales growth at 36.53% and EPS growth at 30.46%, while Futu's 2026 sales growth is seen at just 1.61% with an EPS decline of 13.19%. Over the past three months, Upstart shares have gained 39% while Futu shares have dropped 26.6%, and Upstart carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) versus Futu's Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell).
Upstart Renews $600 Million Forward-Flow Deal and Launches New Securitization
Upstart Holdings renewed its forward-flow agreement with Neuberger Specialty Finance, enabling funds managed by Neuberger to purchase up to US$600,000,000 of consumer loans. KBRA also assigned preliminary ratings to notes from Upstart Securitization Trust 2026-3, which are backed by unsecured consumer and auto secured personal loans. These moves deepen Upstart's institutional capital access, supporting loan originations through its AI-driven lending platform. The renewed funding commitment and ongoing ABS deals align with the thesis that diversified capital sources can help drive expansion into products like HELOCs and small dollar loans, though macro conditions and credit performance remain critical watchpoints.
Digital Finance & Tokenization › Digital Lending & Alt-Credit Platforms ▲Capital
UPST · Capital · Positive Renewed $600M forward-flow agreement and new securitization deepen institutional capital access, supporting loan originations.
Neuberger Berman Specialty Finance · Capital · Positive Neuberger Specialty Finance commits up to $600M to purchase consumer loans, expanding its investment portfolio.
Jefferies and Bank of America Raise Price Targets on Upstart After CFO Meeting and Strong Originations
Jefferies raised its price target on Upstart Holdings to $30 from $27 while maintaining a Hold rating, citing discussions with the newly appointed CFO that highlighted a renewed focus on core non-prime lending, new product verticals, and bank charter progress. Bank of America also raised its target to $37 from $36 with a Neutral rating, noting May originations rose 14% month-over-month and 52% year-over-year, prompting an increase in the second-quarter origination estimate to $4.1 billion and higher earnings per share forecasts for 2026 and 2027.
Upstart updated its Macro Index to 1.49 for May, up from 1.43 in April, while remaining below early 2024 levels. The personal savings rate held at 3.0% as a 0.7% rise in disposable income was offset by a 0.7% increase in consumer spending, and the unemployment rate stayed at 4.3% for the third straight month. Revisions show April was adjusted down to 1.43 from 1.46, March up to 1.38 from 1.37, and February unchanged at 1.35.
UPST · Demand · Neutral Upstart's own Macro Index rose to 1.49 in May, but remains below early 2024 levels; personal savings rate flat, spending up, unemployment steady — mixed signals for consumer lending demand.
Upstart Holdings Draws Investor Attention Amid Steady Earnings Estimates
Upstart Holdings has been attracting significant investor attention, with its stock returning 2.7% over the past month compared to a 1.3% decline in the S&P 500. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for current-quarter earnings stands at $0.55 per share, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 52.8%, while full-year estimates of $2.27 and next-year estimates of $3.29 indicate growth of 30.5% and 44.9%, respectively. Revenue estimates point to $354.89 million for the current quarter, up 37.9% year-over-year, with full-year projections of $1.43 billion and $1.86 billion for the current and next fiscal years. The company last reported revenues of $308.21 million, a 44.4% increase, but its EPS of $0.30 missed the consensus by 23.08%. Upstart carries a Zacks Rank of 3, or Hold, suggesting near-term performance in line with the broader market.
UPST · Capital · Neutral Article reports earnings estimates and past results, but no new news; Zacks Hold rating suggests neutral near-term performance.
KBRA Assigns Preliminary Ratings to Upstart Securitization Trust 2026-3
KBRA has assigned preliminary ratings to four classes of notes issued by Upstart Securitization Trust 2026-3, a $320.005 million consumer loan ABS securitization backed by unsecured consumer loans and auto secured personal loans. The collateral pool, as of the June 18, 2026 cutoff date, includes approximately $400.0 million of loans, with auto secured personal loans comprising about 2.0% of the pool. The preliminary ratings reflect initial credit enhancement levels of 64.75% for the Class A-1 and Class A-2 notes, 51.05% for the Class B notes, 40.70% for the Class C notes, and 20.50% for the Class D notes. Credit enhancement consists of overcollateralization, excess spread, a non-declining cash reserve account, and subordination for all classes except the Class D notes. This transaction represents the 51st ABS securitization collateralized by loans originated through the online platform operated by Upstart Network, Inc., a wholly owned subsidiary of Upstart Holdings, Inc.
Upstart's AI lending model faces toughest test if rates stay high
Upstart's AI-powered lending marketplace faces its toughest test if interest rates remain elevated, threatening to stall its recent recovery. The company, which uses non-traditional data to approve loans for younger and lower-income applicants, saw its business nearly derailed by the Federal Reserve's 11 consecutive rate hikes in 2022 and 2023, with originated loans plunging 59% in 2023. Growth rebounded in 2024 and 2025 after six rate cuts, but with the Fed holding rates at 3.50% to 3.75% through four FOMC meetings in 2026 and inflation hitting a three-year high in May, analysts now anticipate rate hikes instead of cuts. Upstart reiterated its outlook for 40% revenue growth in 2026 and a 35% CAGR from 2025 to 2028, but its stock has fallen nearly 50% over the past 12 months. The company is in a stronger position than during the prior downturn, backed by more than $4 billion in committed forward-flow capital from alternative asset managers and a shift toward secured auto and HELOC loans.
Pagaya closes upsized $800 million AAA personal loan ABS deal
Pagaya Technologies closed an upsized $800 million AAA-rated personal loan ABS transaction named PAID 2026-4, drawing 39 unique investors. The deal brings the company's year-to-date personal loan ABS issuance to nearly $4 billion and marks its third upsized personal loan ABS transaction this year. Total issuance since 2018 now stands at $40 billion across 91 ABS deals backed by more than 165 institutional investors. Collateral for the latest deal included personal loans from new network partners Upstart and Achieve.
PGY · Capital · Positive Pagaya closed an upsized $800M AAA-rated personal loan ABS deal, bringing YTD issuance to nearly $4B and demonstrating strong capital market access.
UPST · Demand · Positive Upstart is mentioned as a new network partner providing collateral for the deal, indicating increased demand for its loan origination platform.
Achieve · Demand · Positive Achieve is mentioned as a new network partner providing collateral for the deal, indicating increased demand for its loan origination platform.
Vertical Software Stocks Mixed in Q1 as Upstart Leads Revenue Growth and Adobe Tops Guidance
Vertical software stocks delivered a mixed first quarter, with the group beating revenue estimates by 2.2% but issuing next-quarter guidance 0.6% below expectations, and shares falling 8.8% on average since reporting. Upstart posted the fastest revenue growth, up 44.4% year on year to $308.2 million, though it missed EBITDA estimates and offered slightly lower full-year revenue guidance. Adobe achieved the highest guidance raise among peers, reporting revenue of $6.62 billion, up 12.7%, and beating billings estimates, yet its stock fell 10.8%. Doximity recorded the slowest revenue growth at 5.1% to $145.4 million and the weakest full-year guidance update, sending shares down 12.2%. Autodesk beat expectations with revenue of $1.93 billion, up 18.4%, but its stock dropped 19.6%, while Agilysys topped estimates with $82.95 million in revenue, up 11.7%, and its shares surged 22.7%.
Upstart Preferred Over OneMain for 2026 on Higher Revenue Growth Outlook
The Motley Fool compared OneMain and Upstart, concluding Upstart is the better buy for 2026 due to its expected 36% revenue rise to more than $1.4 billion, versus OneMain's expected 10% increase. OneMain, which focuses on nonprime borrowers through 1,300 branches, reported fiscal 2025 revenue of nearly $6.2 billion and net income of approximately $783 million, but faces higher delinquency risks. Upstart, an AI-driven lending platform connecting consumers with over 100 banks and credit unions, saw revenue surge nearly 59% to nearly $1.1 billion and returned to profitability with net income of roughly $53.6 million. Valuation metrics show OneMain trades at a forward P/E of 7.8x compared to Upstart's 35.1x, yet the analysis favors Upstart's growth trajectory and slightly higher-quality customer base.
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