United Kingdom

A rival bidder has warned that ministers should block BT from acquiring TalkTalk to avoid creating a broadband monopoly in the UK. Tom O'Hagan, a former TalkTalk executive leading a takeover bid alongside private equity firm Epiris, said BT would regain near-total dominance of the wholesale market if it were allowed to buy TalkTalk's wholesale division, PXC. BT has made an eleventh-hour entry into the auction for TalkTalk, which is fighting to stave off insolvency under a £1.4bn debt pile. Epiris is bidding for PXC but is asking for hundreds of millions of pounds in debt owed to BT's network division Openreach to be written off, while TalkTalk's lenders are considering legal action if BT is given approval to mount a rescue deal. BT chief executive Allison Kirkby held talks last week with Whitehall officials seeking assurances that the company would not face a prolonged investigation by the competition watchdog, amid concerns that a TalkTalk collapse would disrupt around 250,000 vulnerable households and weaken national security.

Sinch's fair value estimate has been lifted to about SEK 44.83 from SEK 41.00, a roughly 9.3% increase, as analysts diverge sharply on the company's growth and execution outlook. Cantor Fitzgerald upgraded Sinch to Overweight from Neutral with a SEK 43 price target, while JPMorgan raised its target to SEK 66 from SEK 45 and kept an Overweight rating. On the bearish side, Pareto initiated coverage with a Sell rating and a SEK 35 target, and DNB Carnegie cut the stock to Hold from Buy with a SEK 55 target. The revised valuation also reflects revenue growth moving from about 4.32% to roughly 6.14%, profit margin from about 4.07% to roughly 5.07%, and a future P/E shifting from about 22.82x to roughly 19.32x. The analyst debate centers on Sinch's use of AI, machine learning and partnerships with platforms like Salesforce and Microsoft, the role of omnichannel messaging and RCS rollout in its revenue mix, and execution risks including slow organic net sales growth and competitive pressure in U.S. messaging.

Equifax is facing fresh competitive pressure as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac move to include VantageScore in mortgage underwriting in 2026, with the Federal Housing Finance Agency directing the two government-sponsored enterprises to use a single pricing grid that applies to both VantageScore and FICO models. Major originators such as Rocket Mortgage are preparing to adopt the dual-score framework, reshaping demand for traditional mortgage credit reports. The shift could alter Equifax's mortgage fee mix and volumes, particularly if the FHFA leans into bi-merge or single-bureau files, which would pressure the volume of full three-bureau reports Equifax sells into that channel and tighten pricing. Equifax, a roughly $16.1b professional services group, would then need higher-margin areas such as The Work Number, government verification contracts and AI-driven productivity gains to carry more of the earnings load. The key markers ahead are how quickly lenders such as Rocket Mortgage shift actual pull volumes toward VantageScore and whether the FHFA finalises bi-merge or single-bureau rules that reduce report count per loan, with concrete disclosures from Equifax on mortgage segment volumes and pricing as the 2026 transition date approaches showing how much revenue mix is at stake.

The average rate on the 30-year fixed mortgage came in at 7.28% this week, up from 7.03% the previous week, according to data released on the first by the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation, Freddie Mac, reaching its highest level in about three years. The weekly increase was the largest in roughly four years. The surge in Treasury yields is behind the move, adding further headwinds for would-be homebuyers. Mortgage rates track closely with the US 10-year Treasury yield, which this week reached its highest level in nearly a quarter of a century. Mortgage rates published by the Mortgage Bankers Association on September 30 showed a similar trend, and also indicated that mortgage applications fell again in response to higher rates. The rate on the 30-year fixed mortgage has risen by more than 1.2 percentage points over the seven months since the United States and Israel began strikes on Iran. Bob Broeksmit, president and chief executive officer of the Mortgage Bankers Association, said in a statement that mortgage rates have risen for six straight weeks and reached their highest level in about three years, adding that home affordability and borrower demand have weakened in recent weeks as the high-rate environment continues to squeeze both prospective buyers and homeowners considering refinancing.

The Federal Housing Finance Agency is planning to instruct mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to require lenders to use credit data from two major credit reporting bureaus instead of three, according to a media report on Thursday. The new requirement could be unveiled by FHFA Director Bill Pulte as soon as Oct. 12, when he is scheduled to speak at a mortgage industry conference, Bloomberg News reported, citing a person familiar with the plans. Equifax, TransUnion, and Experian Plc are the dominant credit reporting firms, and loans sold to Fannie and Freddie are currently required to include a tri-merge report combining data from all three companies. Shares in Fair Isaac, which creates tri-merge reports, dropped 7.0% in Thursday after-hours trading, while TransUnion slid 4.2% and Equifax slipped 3.7%. Last month, Pulte said he was considering a bi-merge requirement as part of the Trump administration's efforts to lower closing costs and make homeownership more affordable, and the new requirement is expected to take effect within one to three months of the announcement.

HSBC says European equity funds appear to be rotating out of France and into the UK as concerns over France's fiscal outlook weigh on investor sentiment. The broker recently cut France to "underweight," citing a worsening fiscal backdrop, weaker economic forecasts and deteriorating analyst expectations, according to a Sept. 23 report. HSBC also recently raised its year-end target for the STOXX 600 to 680, pointing to a growing shift by European companies towards their domestic markets. Global equities, measured by the FTSE All-World index, rose 2.4% in the third quarter of 2026 so far, and the fourth quarter has historically been the strongest period for both equity fund flows and market performance. HSBC remains "overweight" technology, which has the strongest earnings growth outlook in Europe for 2027 with consensus forecasts pointing to 27% growth, and stays "neutral" on healthcare, where consensus forecasts call for earnings growth of 5% in 2026 and about 9% in 2027. HSBC's economists expect the European Central Bank to raise interest rates twice, in December and February, which could continue to support financial stocks.

Bank of America reshuffled its European defense coverage, upgrading Saab AB Class B to buy from neutral and Dassault Aviation to buy from neutral while downgrading Babcock International Group and RENK Group AG to neutral from buy. BofA raised its Saab price objective to SEK720 from SEK655, citing stronger-than-consensus growth expectations, particularly in its Surveillance business, and forecasts earnings per share 9%-16% above consensus in 2027-30, with its 2030 revenue estimate for Surveillance about 27% above consensus. For Dassault, the bank lifted its price objective to €360 from €345, highlighting a Rafale backlog that provides about 7.5 years of production visibility at current delivery rates, and said a proposed Indian order for 114 Rafales and Ukraine's ambition for up to 100 aircraft could, if secured, lift the backlog above 400 aircraft and roughly double production visibility. Babcock was cut to neutral with its price objective reduced to 1,060 pence from 1,608 pence, and RENK was cut to neutral with its target lowered to €42.50 from €62.50. BofA also initiated Fincantieri SpA at buy with a €17 price objective, expecting 34% EPS CAGR from 2026-30, and started CSG Nv Class A at underperform with a €13 target.

The credit spread on US corporate bonds rated CCC has surpassed 1,000 basis points relative to US Treasuries for the first time since the regional banking crisis of 2023. Data from Bloomberg showed the spread at 1,007 basis points on Wednesday, September 30, up from 860 basis points at the start of September and the widest since March 2023, which coincided with the US regional banking crisis that led to the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and troubles at Credit Suisse. Collin Martin, head of fixed income research and strategy at Charles Schwab, said the US economy remains fairly strong but is not growing at a red-hot pace, while CCC-rated companies are the riskiest group of issuers and are especially sensitive to changes in interest rates. CCC bond spreads have risen steadily since April after investors began to expect the Fed to return to tighter monetary policy to control inflation. Tatiana Darie, a macro strategist at Bloomberg, said selling was clearly concentrated in the lowest-quality credit instruments, reflecting concern that years of restructuring and debt extensions could once again create pressure as interest rates rise and could lead to a new wave of defaults. Barclays said not all CCC bonds are in trouble, noting that some distressed debt is weighing on the overall picture for the CCC group, and that more than half of the worst-performing CCC bonds are in technology, media and telecommunications, especially cable and satellite companies. Corry Short, a strategist at Barclays, said CCC-rated debt currently shows a very high degree of dispersion in performance between individual companies and industries. Companies rated CCC now account for about 8.5% of the US high-yield bond index, down from 9.7% a year earlier, while credit spreads on higher-rated bonds remain relatively stable even as global bond yields have surged and stock markets have fallen.

Shell is facing a proposed $5.2 billion fine from Kazakhstan tied to the Kashagan oil field project, where Kazakh regulators have reportedly alleged environmental and contractual violations involving Shell and other consortium partners. Separately, Shell has approved a $33 billion expansion of the LNG Canada project that aims to roughly double liquefied natural gas capacity to 28 million tonnes per year, with Shell holding a 40% stake in the Canadian hub. The key question on the Kashagan penalty is whether it results in a one-off cash hit or longer-running restrictions on that asset, while the LNG Canada decision signals Shell leaning further into liquefied gas as a core pillar of its energy mix. Investors will be watching whether Kazakhstan's enforcement process ends in a negotiated reduction or full payment, and on LNG Canada, updated project budgets, construction milestones through to first commercial operations targeted for the early 2030s, and any revisions to capacity plans from TC Energy's Coastal GasLink pipeline expansion.

Republican Senator Rand Paul is blocking the bipartisan Connected Vehicle Security Act of 2026 in the Senate, legislation sponsored by Senators Bernie Moreno of Ohio and Elissa Slotkin of Michigan that would prohibit the import, manufacture, and sale of connected vehicles and related software and hardware linked to China and other designated foreign adversaries. The Senate Commerce Committee approved the bill in July, and it was placed on the Senate legislative calendar on September 22. Paul has argued the proposal could impact Mercedes-Benz and Ford Motor, and its proposed ownership threshold has raised questions about whether automakers with Chinese investors, including Aston Martin and Volvo Cars, could also be affected. The bill would go further than a Biden administration Commerce Department regulation from early 2025 that effectively banned Chinese automakers from selling or building passenger vehicles in the U.S. over concerns that sensitive driver data could be sent to China. President Trump added a wildcard last week by saying he would accept Chinese automakers building vehicles in the U.S.